Winter 1904 (Builds) – The Die is Cast

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Developments: Italy tries to help me out

• England: 48% (16/33)
  • England retreated last turn to Yorkshire from Liverpool faster than I could even check the game (only he and France had retreat orders to make). I would have predicted that since it’s the only possible retreat, so I’ll give myself a point there in addition to the other guesses.
  • England either thought it was too important to stay in North Sea or gambled that nobody would poke his fleet. Dagnabbit I wish Russia hadn’t poked North Sea.
• France: 65% (24/37)
• • France retreated last turn to Gascony from Burgundy faster than I could even check the game (only he and England had retreat orders to make). That is also the obvious retreat, since he wouldn’t have blocked Paris to build his army and Picardy is not the right defensive position, so I think I would have predicted that correctly and I’ll give myself the point. Call me a cheater if you like.
  • I predicted everything right except that he kept his fleet in Western Mediterranean. I’m really surprised he would just sit in Western Mediterranean Sea and not either move to Mid-Atlantic Ocean to build momentum against England, or try to TAKE Tunis and get 2 builds (and also become very strong and also hobble Italy so as to help Turkey). Maybe France really does want to take Tunis but is afraid that if he becomes too strong too fast, Russia and I won’t attack each other.
• Russia: 63% (30/48)
  • Russia played more defensively than I predicted – this is what I had predicted for Russia a few turns back, but I stopped predicting that because Russia made an attack. Oh well. These are solid defensive moves – totally impregnable with his Turkish ally.
  • Russia moved to cover Sweden. I wonder if he read me as greedy because I so nervously guarded myself against Austria?
    • I consider this a good development actually – now Russia can’t support himself into North Sea, so perhaps I will be the one to move into North Sea. Let’s see what happens!
• Turkey: 74% (23/31)
  • Again, I fully predicted Turkey. That doesn’t have much to do with me reading the player actually; he’s constrained by the situation he’s  in – this is really the best he can do to defend himself from both Italy and Austria. I think his performance here is commendable.
• Austria: 42% (16/38)
  • Well, I totally whiffed there on my predictions. I guess my ability to predict Austria, which was so strong at the beginning, has worn off. I suppose Austria is varying his play to try to prevent predictable moves from being exploited by Russia and Turkey. In other words, he might be playing a bit unpredictably for it’s own sake. He might also be trying to see if he can exploit a turn where Russia makes risky moves.
• Italy: 55% (17/31)
  • I guess I am kind of happy to be wrong about Italy?
    • First off, thank GOD he moves Piedmont into Marseilles to harass France – I think he should have been doing that the entire game to encourage me to attack France. Anyways, if Italy keeps making that harassing move with Piedmont, I might actually be able to make some progress against France even though I didn’t commit that many armies to it.
  • Why the hell did he move into Aegean NOW of all turns? There were so many past turns were that would have been the right move to make progress against Turkey. But now France has a fleet in Western Mediterranean Sea threatening to take Tunis at France’s convenience, and now Italy’s fleets aren’t in position to dig France out of Tunis if he lunges for it, which now France probably wants to do because Italy is out of position and also harassing him with Piedmont. Hooo boy!

Strategic thoughts: France is still strong

• I have issued my declaration of war against France, so let’s see where this takes me.^[1]tektelmektel, who played France, said this after the game: “As France, my lot was lost relatively early – Aut 03 / Spring 04. When my army made it to the English mainland, I strongly suspected that Germany would turn on me. With Italy in Piedmont, and no real heat on Germany from any … Continue reading
  • Those support-holds preceding an attack are surely considered a “stab” even though they were frivolous orders, so it will probably be difficult for me to repair a relationship with France.
  • France appears to be very, very strong right now. Hopefully Russia, and even Austria, will see that and continue to be peaceful towards me.
• Dammit France is still lingering in Western Med. He is going to freaking nab Tunis sooner or later. Once France does that, he’ll never lose it – Italy won’t have enough units or enough units in position to chase France out, because Italy insists on going over there to make a Lepanto attack on Turkey.
  • This whole situation makes me sick. I think France is going to play a strong game this game despite having zero allies basically.
• I swear, if Russia and I don’t play a tight game, France is poised to become a friggin solo win threat. Yes I am really saying that even though France has only 6 points. Because if France walks into Tunis and takes it, he’ll have the 1 southern center he needs to win, so all he would need is to get momentum by conquering England and some kind of infighting between me and Russia to solo win.

Predictions: not much to say

• I predict that England will destroy his Yorkshire fleet. Previously, England has expressed that he immensely values control of the North Sea and compromised his defenses against France in order to keep control of it. Even if someone dislodges him from North Sea in the spring move, he can still retreat somewhere useful like Edinburgh.
• I predict that France will build an army in Paris. Nothing else makes sense right now.

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