Spring 1905 – The Fight is on

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Developments: nothing to see here

• England: 50% (17/34)
  • That’s what I expected.
• France: 66% (25/38)
  • Yup.

Strategic thoughts: not feeling too great

• I guess I’m thinking that I don’t have a good chance of taking any English home centers right now. France is too strong, Russia is kind of turtling, and Austria can backdoor me. I’m afraid that I would have to send in units in an invasion that would take at least 2 years, which means I wouldn’t get to rebuild any units for defense.
• I think there’s two decent scenarios that work for me (Germany) here:
  • One is that France takes all of the English home centers, slowly and steadily, and I play defensively on all sides such that nobody tries to backstab me. If Russia never gets any other builds, then Russia will know that the two of us have to work together to hold off France. I could then count on Russia to use his two fleets to help me defend against France, because if France takes all the English centers + Tunis, he’ll have 9 points and seem like a serious solo-win threat if is any flaw in my defenses.
  • The other that looks good is that I help Russia get some of the English home centers while somehow successfully invading France – maybe down the road I will have an opportunity to get London or Paris.
• Right now, I’m allied to Russia who is allied to Turkey – that’s not the best triple alliance, but it can work out fine. I’m also neutral to Austria and Italy, and if they were doing really well I might seriously consider trying to join them in a central triple, but the simple fact is that Italy is playing like crap and I am pretty sure I will need Russia to help me against France.
• France is basically on his own side right now, but if he expands closer to Turkey or Russia (his natural allies), the juggernaut might link up with France and play out to a 3-way draw – I’ve seen it plenty of times. I have to watch out for signs that Russia wants to betray me (Germany) or help France.
• Italy is playing like crap – I suspect Italy will be the second player eliminated after England, because if he slips up against France he’ll lose a unit and be down to just 3, which will make him easy to eliminate.^[1]Boy was I wrong about that prediction.

Orders: I’ll press on against France 

• The army at Belgium move to Picardy.
• The army at Burgundy support move to Picardy from Belgium.
• The army at Munich support hold the army in Burgundy.
  • I figure I may as well press my attack on France and see how things go. This seems like a pretty good attack to me. If France makes a double-supported move into Burgundy, then I’ll just retreat Burgundy into Ruhr and I’ll have an army in Picardy, and then I could lunge for a center or just attack Burgundy again. If France uses Paris to move to Picardy and also cuts Burgundy’s support, then there will be no harm done and I’ll at least still have control of Burgundy.
• The fleet at Holland move to Belgium.
  • In the event that my move into Picardy works, this may be a pretty good back-fill, because there’s a chance I could follow up my getting my fleet into English Channel, or at least I could threaten to do so, blah blah, I’m saying there are a lot of potential ways to harass France if it works.
• The army at Berlin move to Kiel.
  • I have to do this in case Holland does move to Belgium, because if Russia dislodges England at the same time, England could retreat his North Sea fleet to Holland. Bringing my army into Kiel deters him from doing that if it comes up, and permits me to just push him back out if he does it.
  • Plus, I don’t actually want my army on the eastern front, I’ve just been covering Berlin because I’m paranoid about Austria. I doubt Austria will move into Berlin on this move while I’m sitting on it, and perhaps he’ll never lunge for it because I keep trying to cover that center anyways and it might be deterring him from considering that move.
  • I can move back to Berlin next move probably, if I want to.
• The fleet at Denmark support move to North Sea from Norway.
  • Just trying my best to communicate my allegiance to Russia. We’re on year 5 and, in my opinion, I’ve shown nothing but goodwill and assistance to Russia. You’ve gotta ally somebody when you’re Germany, and Russia has been doing pretty well for me. Importantly, Austria has Russia surrounded, which should keep Russia honest; Russia only has a presence of 2 units in the north, so his hold there is actually quite tenuous; he’s committed 5 of his 7 units to defending the south. I think because Russia has such a weak presence in the North, he will continue to work with me (and not France) because France will just roll him out of the North in the end game if it gets to that.
  • I would like Russia to be in North Sea. That would force England to retreat his fleet, either northward to defend Norwegian Sea or perhaps somewhere else. I don’t think England will retreat towards me (Germany)  and Russia because our front is really well defended, but France’s has holes.

Predictions: not much to say

• I think France will move Wales to Yorkshire supported by London. Getting an army into Yorkshire is critical to bringing England to a swift death, as only an army in Yorkshire borders all 3 English home centers. Nobody can stop France from moving his army into Yorkshire, and if somehow there is no unit that borders Edinburgh on the Autumn turn, France‘s army can just walk in (the Liverpool fleet cannot move to Edinburgh because it is a fleet; England really screwed himself by not pulling back his army for defense). Plus France can still hold or guard London from there.
  • At this point, England is no threat to France because England has a mere 2 units and can’t dislodge France from London with just 2. I suppose France will try to push me out of Burgundy as best he can – maybe Gascony to Burgundy supported by Paris and Marseilles.
  • The move that I’m really interested in here is whether France takes his fleet out of Western Mediterranean and leaves Italy alone. At this point, France really could use the additional fleet to help guard against my invasion. If I get an army into Picardy and he doesn’t bring his fleet back into English Channel, I might be able to dig deeper into his territory. Plus, England might retreat North Sea to English Channel to try a desperation strategy of moving his fleet into English Channel to eventually cram himself into Portugal (I’ve done stuff like that plenty of times and it has worked out for me once in awhile).
  • I ran out of time before making any other predictions. C’est la vie!

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