Winter 1913 (Builds) – I still have hope!

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Developments: they’ve locked down the east, but I still have hope in the west

• Italy retook Venice. Jeez. Wow! I suppose Italy will build another fleet to help hold me off in the west, but what’s the difference between building a new fleet and using the fleet he already has? The fleet in Venice is now so far out of position that it will probably never be useful.
  • Perhaps Italy’s trust in Austria was so greatly shaken by Austria’s previous repeated attacks and earlier backstab that Italy was willing to waste a move retaking Venice with his fleet in Apulia. In my opinion, Italy’s move is a serious mistake, and I may break through in the west next Autumn as a result.
    • If Italy had instead moved the fleet to Ionian Sea, he would be 1 turn ahead in getting to the west. Whatever fleet he builds will have to spend an additional turn moving out of its starting point.
    • Is this mistake enough for me to catch up? I’m not sure!
• There’s nothing I could have done different to maximize my interests in the east. I needed to use Warsaw to take Moscow (even in retrospect), and any other moves I might have made would have also bounced.

Strategic thoughts: my chances of winning are slightly higher, but still poor

• I raise my estimation of my chances for a solo win from 10% back up to 25%.
  • I think I will be able to get one of the three western centers I am after, but two still seems like it will be too tough for me.
    • In a turn or two, the defending alliance will need a unit in Piedmont or Gulf of Lyon to defend against my armies (which will eventually be in Gascony and Burgundy) because I will be able to poke any unit in Spain (with Mid-Atlantic Ocean, which I will have next turn). I wonder if Italy will use his Tyrrhenian Sea fleet or his new build for this purpose?
  • I don’t think I will be able to break through to get more centers in the east. I’ll look carefully each turn, but I think they should be able to form a stalemate line (even though there aren’t that many armies) unless they make a mistake.
    • I did not get far enough across “no man’s land” (the central string of territories with no centers) to seize any more centers before they can form a stalemate line. The line at Tyrolia-Vienna-Galicia-Ukraine-Sevastopol will be too easy for them to lock down. I have armies in Livonia and St. Petersburg that may not do very much for me.

Orders: army build – what else? I’m Germany!

Yet again I am limited to building only 1 new unit even though I went up 2 supply centers. I had not given much thought about the problem of building 2 units on the same turn when playing as Germany, but I’ve learned a new lesson during this game. Because I’ve had an army sitting around in Munich nearly the entire game, I’ve been limited in making my builds over and over again. I wonder if this problem is because of my conservative play-style (guarding my centers, especially my home centers, as much as possible) or a weakness of Germany (other powers usually have some or all of their centers pretty far from the front).

• Build an army at Kiel.
  • I am pretty much saturated with both fleets and armies, but there’s at least a small chance that another army could be useful somehow.
    • Italy might make a last-ditch effort to break through my defenses. He could try to move his armies into Burgundy or his fleet into Brest. If I have an army coming in to follow-up, I might be willing to make an attack that risks an Italian breakthrough (since I would be able to clean it up with my rear-guard army). A fleet would not be able to help.
    • If that doesn’t happen, maybe I could make supported attacks from the rear to guard territory from which I make “poke” orders, taking advantage of the no-self-dislodgement rule. If done correctly, this tactic can mean that you make a move that has all the advantages of defensive AND offensive play. For example, I could use Berlin and Kiel to make a supported attack on Munich while poking Bohemia or Tyrolia with Munich. Munich couldn’t be dislodged because any and all possible moves would fail (assuming Munich doesn’t get away with moving out), and because players can’t dislodge their own units.
  • I don’t think a fleet has much of a chance of doing anything for me. Next turn, I will take Mid-Atlantic Ocean with English Channel and backfill with North Sea. Then I will probably try to sneak into North Africa or Western Mediterranean and make another yet another double-supported move into Mid-Atlantic Ocean. If that scenario comes to pass, I will no longer need double-support into Mid-Atlantic Ocean because France and Italy will be too busy doing defensive orders to try to retake Mid-Atlantic Ocean.

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