Autumn 1913 – …and I’m blowing my chance

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Developments: Ahhhhhhhh frick!!

• Italy and France got their act together after all. I thought about it so hard, but in the end I made a mistake. I have been set back very badly in the west because of my bad guess about Mid-Atlantic Ocean. My misjudgments on getting into Mid-Atlantic Ocean (I could have moved in 2 turns ago but I thought Italy and France would block me, then I tried to move in and they did block me) may cost me the solo win.
• I was correct in thinking that there was no point trying to be stealthy, since every single player made moves consistent with blocking my solo win attempt.
• Italy’s fleet ended up in Apulia. I kept suspecting that would eventually happen due to Austria’s attacks. There’s still a little hope for me in the west as a result of that move.

Strategic thoughts: I rate my chances of a solo win at less than 10% now

• I think I am really likely to be completely shut out of Portugal, Spain and Marseilles. I’ll be lucky to get even one, let alone 2, of those centers. I need to start thinking about whether I can make up for the lost opportunity elsewhere.
• I will have a huge number of armies after this turn and the defending alliance will actually be rather short on armies, so maybe I will have a chance to break through somewhere and get to Vienna or Sevastopol.
  • Let’s total up the armies in the east:
    • Italy has no armies in the east; his armies are all committed west.
    • Austria has just 5 armies because he never gave up his fleet; Turkey and Russia destroyed one of his armies a few turns back when they took Bulgaria.
    • Russia will be reduced to just 2 units after this turn, likely 2 armies.
    • Turkey has 3 fleets and only 1 army.
  • That leaves 8 armies available to fight me in the east.
    • Furthermore, Turkey’s lone army can’t do that much: Russia can’t put his armies in Ukraine or Galicia and have them held by a Turkish army in Rumania or Sevastopol, because if Turkey moves into Rumania or Sevastopol Turkey will eventually capture those centers. That means Russia has to defend from Rumania and Sevastopol. Turkey can still support from Armenia or maybe Bulgaria, but this does reduce the options for the defending alliance.
  • I’ve never thought about this particular scenario before, so I wonder if 8 armies is even enough for them to form a stalemate line in the east? I’ll be able to commit 9, maybe 10 armies to the east. This means I will have two advantages: 1) I will have numerical superiority 2) there will be 3 different defending powers (Austria, Russia, Turkey) and they may make mistakes in coordinating their moves.^[1]Actually, I do think that 8 armies is enough to form a stalemate line. I wasn’t thinking it through at the time I wrote this journal entry, but Rumania and Sevastopol can be held from the south with just fleets.
• I’m feeling kind of depressed now that I messed up my chance for a solo win in this game. I passed up a chance to move into Mid-Atlantic Ocean, and then I wasted a turn when I could have set up for a move into Mid-Atlantic on this very turn.
  • I’m starting to think about what I’ll have to do to change course and switch my strategy back to one of whittling down the draw size. I’ll probably have to pull waaaay back from the border areas to coax the other players back into fighting once they start trying to form a line.
    • I can probably get Italy to eliminate France, since France is down to just one.
    • I wonder if I can get Austria and/or Turkey to eliminate Russia, who will be down to just 2? Austria seems like a pretty greedy player, so maybe he’ll go for it.
  • If I am able to coax the other players into whittling down the draw size, I may help them do that and then call it a day. Probably we will go down to a 4-way draw if so.^[2]Spoiler Alert: that is what happened. But maybe if Austria takes the bait, I could backstab him while he tries to eliminate Russia and have a second shot at a solo win.
  • I won’t change to this strategy unless it’s clear that there is no way I’ll break through the stalemate line.

Orders: I will press on

• The fleet at North Atlantic Ocean support move to Mid-Atlantic Ocean from Spain.
  • • If I move to Mid-Atlantic Ocean the order will almost certainly fail. So I might as well try something else.
    • Maybe if I support Italy, he will make a follow-up move of attacking Portugal supported by Spain. That would be nice, since that would reduce the draw size in case the game ends in a draw (which is likely).
    • Even if Italy doesn’t follow-up by attacking France, France might panic that Italy  will do so and make a mistake.
• The fleet at English Channel move to Irish Sea.
• The fleet at North Sea move to English Channel.
• The fleet at Denmark move to North Sea.
  • With hindsight, I should have already done this last turn. Oh well.
  • This sets me up to take Mid-Atlantic Ocean by force next turn.
• The army at Ruhr move to Burgundy.
• The army at Brest move to Gascony.
• The army at Paris support move to Gascony from Brest.
  • This gives me the best chance of taking Gascony. Italy can only stop this move by support-holding Gascony with Marseilles, and if Italy does that then my army will get into Burgundy anyways and I’ll just take Gascony on the following turn.
  • If Italy moves one of his armies to Spain, or I dislodge his army and he retreats to Spain, I think that will work to my advantage. If the defending alliance has no unit in Piedmont or Gulf of Lyon with which to support-hold Marseilles, I will break into Marseilles from the north. Spain won’t work, because I will be able to poke Spain with my fleet in Mid-Atlantic Ocean (eventually I will have one in there). This will force either Austria to use one of his much-needed armies to come over to Piedmont to hold Marseilles, or Italy will have to use one of his much-needed and out-of-position fleets to defend from Gulf of Lyons.
    • Probably the defending players will pull off the needed defense even if Italy  ends up with an army in Spain, but there’s a chance it could lead to a breakthrough for me.
• The army at St. Petersburg move to Moscow.
• The army at Finland move to St. Petersburg.
• The army at Livonia support move to Moscow from St. Petersburg.
• The army at Warsaw support move to Moscow from St. Petersburg.
  • These moves guarantee that I take both Moscow and St. Petersburg. Although some additional builds at this point are of some help, what’s more important here is that rapidly taking these 2 centers from Russia will force Russia to disband down to 2 units.
  • This will bring me up to 16 supply centers, but boy-oh-boy getting 2 more after that will be extremely difficult, or even impossible.
• The army at Silesia support move to Bohemia from Munich.
• The army at Munich move to Bohemia.
• The army at Berlin move to Munich.
  • Maybe this will work, maybe not. I think it’s more likely to work than an attempt to move into Galicia.
  • I think moving with Munich is slightly more likely to work than moving with Silesia because Austria might move Tyrolia to Munich. If that happens, I’ll bounce him out and both Kiel and Munich will be open for me to make my 2 builds.
  • Even if my move fails and I only get 1 army build, it’s not a big deal. I’m almost at the saturation point where additional units cannot really accomplish anything, so it won’t be that much if a setback if I’m limited to just 1 army build.

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