Spring 1912 – Northern Russia is going down

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Developments: Russia disbanded St. Petersburg

• Oh wow, Russia’s disband is just what I was hoping for! Russia must see that his position in the north is not defensible in the long run and has realized his only hope of making it into the draw is by staying alive in the south.
  • This is the best disband I could have hoped for. Now that Russia is confined to the Baltic area and can’t possibly break out into the northern seas to become a nuisance, my timetable for taking over the north (and then taking out France) has sped up considerably. I don’t have to waste valuable turns and units bottling up a fleet in St. Petersburg, and actually I can convoy into Norway this turn without any support and can’t possibly be stopped – that’s HUGE!!
  • Russia might intend to accelerate my advance in the north so as to spook other players into trying to form a stalemate line that includes him (Russia).

Orders: my fight against Russia continues

This turn, I’ll construct my moveset out of the moves I consider more obvious and move on to the ones that are more challenging to decide.

• The army at Edinburgh move to Norway (via convoy).
• The army at North Sea convoy an army to Norway from Edinburgh.
  • This move is pretty obvious to me; after all, I’ve been hoping to pull this off for several turns or maybe several years. Since Russia disbanded his fleet in St. Petersburg, this convoy is guaranteed to work and I don’t have to use any other units to support.
  • I really want to get this convoy over with, because that army has close no purpose being on Great Britain and I probably can just build more armies if I need more in France. Getting an army into Norway is particularly helpful now that Russia has no far-northern fleet. Next turn I can capture Norway, or use Norway to capture St. Petersburg, or maybe cross over into Finland (which only an army can do; fleets can’t cut through there) to help blow up Russia’s fleet or set up for a future attack on St. Petersburg.
    • I say this army has almost no purpose being on Great Britain because that army might serve one rather limited purpose: guarding Liverpool against France trying to sneak in there to stay alive. More on that next.
• The fleet at English Channel move to Irish Sea.
  • If you saw this on my map preview and were confused by it, then I challenge you to take a moment to figure out for yourself why I am making this move, then read on.

• Think!
  • Okay, did you figure it out? Without my army in Edinburgh, I will have no way to cover Liverpool if France moves into North Atlantic Ocean or Irish Sea, unless I move English Channel to Irish Sea (which will either bounce France or at least be able to cover Liverpool, should France make such a move). So I believe I need to guard against the possibility of a desperate French move further into the north.
  • Here’s what I’m thinking: it’s really, really obvious that I want to convoy my army out of Edinburgh and into Norway. It’s obvious because 1) it’s a powerful move 2) I’ve already telegraphed that I want to do it by attempting such a move last turn. Furthermore, I’ve also shown an unwillingness to move out of English Channel (even when doing so left Brest unguarded), and I already bounced myself in Brest last turn.
    • So France might think to himself: “Holy crap, if I move into North Atlantic Ocean or Irish Sea and Germany convoys out his army, I’m highly likely to take Liverpool! And then Germany won’t have enough units to dislodge me from Liverpool – he only has two fleets on patrol and that won’t be enough to chase me out!” If France thinks this is possible, and also wagers that his chances of surviving until the end of the game in Portugal are low, he may decide to take a risk and go for Liverpool instead.
    • I have no idea what I consider to be the chances of France actually doing this – I just think it’s possible because I would be at least considering such a move if I were France, since the Spring turn is the only turn where France has any options besides just guarding Portugal.
    • I realize that I’m taking a risk here in leaving English Channel open, but I consider the chances of France moving there as…extremely remote. I’ve refused to leave English Channel for some time, so if France moved there and Italy went to Portugal, France probably would think it’s the end for him. Moving to English Channel seems like way too risky a move for France to attempt.
      • Furthermore, I can cover Brest, Belgium and London if I have to, and Italy would surely take the chance to eliminate France, so it would all be worth it I think anyways just to get France eliminated, even if France got into English Channel.
  • Finally, if I successfully get into Irish Sea and France stays in Mid-Atlantic or moves to Portugal, that’s a really good development for me because it means I can support North Sea into English Channel the following turn to set up for a much-needed strike on Mid-Atlantic Ocean. If I’m ever able to take that sea zone, my strategic options go waaaaay up and, given the current board state, I think I will never get a solo win unless I get into Mid-Atlantic Ocean (the sooner the better).
• The army at Gascony move to Brest.
• The army at Burgundy support hold the army at Marseilles.
  • I have to cover Brest this way because if France moves for Brest, with the rest of my moveset, I would not be able to push France out and he would take my center. Probably this move is a waste of time, but I don’t like taking unnecessary risks with my centers.
  • Also, if I end up moving out of Gascony away from Italy, that will look pretty friendly to Italy because he won’t have to support-hold Marseilles on the Autumn turn. That’s also why I want to support-hold Italy with Burgundy. I’ve been saying this for a while now, but I think a huge factor in whether I’ll be able to solo win is whether I can trick Italy into thinking that I want to ally him and play with him down to a 3-way draw. I need to show as much friendliness to Italy as I possibly can without compromising my situation. Italy has NOT been taking the bait I think so I need to increase my efforts to show non-hostility to Italy.
    • In order to solo win, I will probably have to make a huge backstab on Italy on a turn where he won’t be able to do anything about it – but because of my positions, it will likely have to come as a sort of one-two punch (e.g., I backstab him on a turn where, in the follow-up turn, I will be able to make an even more powerful attack).
    • This whole concept will be very difficult to execute in a high level game like this, especially where Italy has been very suspicious of me for a long time and even compromised his defenses against Austria to hold me in check when I wasn’t even doing anything to him.
• The fleet at Baltic Sea support hold the army at Livonia.
  • I think this is actually a pretty strong move; Russia cannot dislodge Livonia without also allowing Livonia to retreat to St. Petersburg (which would be fine with me!). The only way Russia could possibly dislodge Livonia would be to use all 3 units he has bordering that territory (Gulf of Bothnia, Moscow, Warsaw), which means I would just retreat to St. Petersburg. Any other attack will fail because I am support-holding with Baltic Sea (to cut Baltic Sea’s support or overcome it, Russia would have to use Gulf of Bothnia).
    • I don’t think I need to take a big risk like trying to move Livonia, because if that army blows up I’ll really be in bad situation. I’ve had a horrible time getting all my builds out on time this game, and that situation doesn’t look likely to change. If I’m forced to rebuild that army I think it would be a big setback for me.
    • The time to make an attack with Livonia will be on the Autumn turn when I have an even stronger position against Russia.
• The army at Berlin move to Prussia.
• The army at Livonia support move to Prussia from Berlin.
• The army at Silesia support move to Prussia from Berlin.
  • I need to bring my army at Berlin eastward or it won’t accomplish anything for me. Since I’ve ruled out any attack on Russia’s home centers this turn, I might as well use everything I can to increase the chances that my move into Prussia works. I highly doubt Russia and Austria will make the coordinated moves necessary to stop me from moving my Berlin army into Prussia.
• The army at Munich support hold the army at Tyrolia.
  • I’m taking a small unnecessary risk here: theoretically, Russia and Austria could make a supported move into Silesia together that would force me to retreat and compromise my line in the center. But I think the chances of that happening are really, really low given that Austria just attacked Russia in the last move.
    • Plus, if they somehow coordinated to move on Silesia then Austria would probably move Tyrolia to Munich anyways to cut any support, so I don’t think I’m risking much anyways.
  • The key point of this move is to communicate that I am trying to ride the Central Triple alliance out to a 3-way draw. I’m doing a support-hold to Italy and one to Austria. I am hoping that both see that I am support-holding both of them and that either or both of them believes me.
• The army at Denmark move to Sweden.
  • No matter what I do to move Sweden this turn, I’m going to back-fill with Denmark. To me, this is obvious.
• The fleet at Sweden move to Skagerrak.
  • I spent a fair amount of time hemming-and-hawing about which direction to send Sweden. I see two good move possibilities for this unit:
    • Move to Finland
      • The benefits of this move, if it works, are that 1) I may be able to forcibly disband (“blow up”) Russia’s fleet; and 2) that I will have a pretty strong chance of taking St. Petersburg in the Autumn, possibly in addition to Norway.
        • However, I have a sense that Russia may, sooner rather than later, disband his fleet in Gulf of Bothnia even if I don’t force him to do so. Russia is going to lose at least 1 build this turn to me, possibly two, and might also lose another one to Austria if Austria goes for Rumania.
      • There is a huge disadvantage to this move: if my fleet winds up in Finland, it will eventually, certainly, become useless to me. The make-or-break centers for a German solo win are Warsaw and Moscow and a fleet will never help capture those. But the problem goes beyond that: the fleet will be so far away from the west that there’s no way I’d ever be able to move it over to the west in time for it to matter; Finland is just too many moves away.
    • Move to Skagerrak
      • The benefits of this move are that 1) it is guaranteed to work (Russia could block a move into Finland, however unlikely that is); and 2) my fleet will become very useful very soon as I shut down France and plan to make a power play in the west. Next turn I plan to move North Sea to English Channel, and I could back-fill with this fleet if it moves to Skagerrak.
      • The disadvantages of this move are that 1) Italy may get spooked by my moving fleets westward 2) Russia might decide to keep Gulf of Bothnia for another turn despite having to disband units, which could be a horrible nuisance and slow down my progress against Russia. With merely 1 fleet in the Baltic area, I would never be able to dislodge Russia’s fleet and therefore could not forcibly disband it.
    • Weighing everything, the move to Skagerrak is the better move.
      • Russia will eventually have to disband his Gulf of Bothnia fleet anyways even if I can’t forcibly disband it for the same reason he disbanded his St. Petersburg fleet at the end of last year: if Russia sacrifices his armies, he runs way too high of a risk that Austria will just come in and clear out all his home centers. Russia can’t defend his home centers with fleets so they will be the first to go.
      • I’m in no hurry to take St. Petersburg. It’s inevitable that I will take it. I can barely crank out the builds that I’m getting and don’t have much use for them.
      • I really, really need to have fleets in position in the west ASAP if I’m to have any chance of solo winning. If I can break into Mid-Atlantic Ocean with some ability to back-fill it with additional fleets (that is, if I line up 3-4 fleets over there), I have a serious shot at a solo win because I might be able to grind out Portugal, Spain and/or Marseilles.
        • I need FOUR out of FIVE of: Portugal, Spain, Marseilles, Warsaw, Moscow in order to solo win. Other stretch centers like Venice, Vienna or Sevastopol seem too far out of reach for me this game.
      • Italy has been spooked for years, so I don’t think I can lose any love there anyways.

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