Spring 1911 – now I need to out-play Russia 

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Developments: Nothing new happened as a result of my builds

Orders: I think this is my best attack against Russia

• The fleet at Berlin move to Baltic Sea.
• The army at Kiel move to Denmark.
  • Russia can’t block both these moves, so no matter what I will advance toward Sweden. Probably Russia will bounce my fleet out of Baltic Sea. That’s okay; he can’t do it forever. Eventually I will be in a position where he has to choose between bouncing my fleet out of Baltic Sea and supporting Norway (ideally this year, but time is on my side here because I outnumber Russia so much in the north).
• The army at Liverpool move to Edinburgh.
• The fleet at London move to North Sea.
• The fleet at English Channel support move to North Sea from London.
  • These moves are all pretty obvious to me. I said I was going to move North Sea to either Norwegian Sea or Skagerrak, and these moves all follow logically from that (no matter which way I choose).
  • The purpose of moving the army to Edinburgh is to be able to convoy into Norway should the opportunity arise. If Russia gets into Norwegian Sea or France moves to North Atlantic Ocean or Irish Sea, then I’ll have to leave the army in Great Britain to defend.
  • The reason I am supporting the move into North Sea is that I think there’s a decent chance that Russia’s move with Norway will be to move into North Sea, since Russia has done that move many times. I doubt France will cancel my support order by moving to English Channel.
• The fleet at North Sea move to Skagerrak.
  • Yup, that’s my guess here. Although I previously stated that the payoff for getting into Norwegian Sea is much higher than the payoff for getting into Skagerrak, I have to do a risk-reward analysis here. I think the chances of a move into Norwegian Sea failing are a lot higher than the chances of a move into Skagerrak. Let me explain:
    • If Russia moves Norway to North Sea, either of my potential moves would work.
    • If Russia blocks my North Sea fleet move, then he’s held me off for a turn and I won’t get a build from him this year.
    • If I get into Norwegian Sea, I am virtually certain to conquer Norway by convoying in my army. This is a huge payoff and would definitely collapse Russia’s position in the north.
      • Any move Russia makes with Norway other than moving to Norwegian Sea would let me accomplish this.
  • If I move into Skagerrak successfully, it will probably be because Russia bounced Baltic Sea (if Russia doesn’t move Sweden to either Denmark or Baltic Sea, then I will conquer Sweden no matter what) and moved Norway to either North Sea (which will fail) or Norwegian Sea (which means I juked him).
    • Norway Scenario: I will get to choose whether to take Norway or Sweden. I can guarantee that I conquer one of them if I move in with Skagerrak (which is a fleet, so that would be less than ideal), but I will be free to choose. Probably I would take Sweden with the intention of trying to convoy my army into Norway later on.
    • Norwegian Sea Scenario: Somewhat different. I don’t necessarily have to move in with Skagerrak to conquer Sweden because Russia wouldn’t be able to poke Skagerrak to cut support. If my army is in Denmark, then I could support Denmark into Sweden, which would be awesome. I would have to cover Edinburgh with my army and wait to convoy that in. Overall this is a pretty good scenario, but there is a drawback: Russia will have gotten into Norwegian Sea, and might not go down quietly. If Russia blows up his units in the south when I start taking his centers (instead of abandoning the north, which is what I hope for), then he could try pulling that fleet around near Great Britain and be a menace to me for many years (possibly until he is eliminated).
      • On that note, my hope here in attacking Russia is that Russia will eventually decide to blow up his units in the north, to completely give up his foothold in the north, because he will decide that getting pushed out of the north is inevitable anyways (and so sacrificing his position in the south would just increase his chances of being eliminated at that point, since he’s dead for sure in the north). In other words, my hope is that Russia will try to force Austria to include him in the draw by demonstrating that he’s not going to put up a fight against me, only Austria. I want that to happen because that is what will lead me to a solo win. And I’m not afraid that Russia will somehow get into the draw, because I think that if I judge that a solo win isn’t possible and just start helping Austria finish off Russia and Turkey, Austria will go along with it (that’s my read on Austria’s play style).
  • So after considering those scenarios, I conclude that successfully moving into Skagerrak is definitely not as good as successfully moving into Norwegian Sea. HOWEVER, is successfully moving into Skagerrak better than bouncing Russia in Norwegian Sea, no matter the scenario of how Russia moves? I think the answer is yes.
  • Finally, I think the chances of Russia moving to Norwegian Sea are pretty high…maybe even higher than Russia moving into North Sea. I think Russia will read that his northern goose is cooked if I get into Norwegian Sea, and that it’s not much of a problem for him really if he gets into Norwegian Sea. I think the chances of Russia moving into Skagerrak with Norway are correspondingly pretty low. But we’ll find out!
• The army at Prussia move to Livonia.
  • Russia will probably bounce this with Warsaw, but if not then Russia’s land defenses will crumble. Livonia borders 3 of his home centers, most of which are currently undefended.
  • I’ll probably keep making this move until either I walk right in or else I have a fleet in Baltic Sea and can support myself into Livonia, or convoy an army into Livonia supported by Prussia – whichever comes first.
• The army at Munich move to Silesia.
• The army at Ruhr move to Munich.
  • Russia might bounce this, but if he does then either I got my army into Livonia or he’s leaving himself open to attacks by Austria. So that seems good no matter what. I definitely want to keep Russia out of Silesia. If Russia moves a supported army into Silesia, then my army will be in Livonia which is more than enough to offset Russia being in Silesia.
  • The move into Munich is to backfill.
• The army at Burgundy support hold the army at Gascony.
• The army at Gascony support hold the army at Marseilles.
  • This may look strange because I’m not covering Brest. Let me explain:
    • If France moves into Brest, I can absolutely force him back out the following turn by supporting Gascony into Brest with English Channel. If that happens, Italy is highly likely to lunge for Portugal (why wouldn’t he?) and then that will be the end of France. Predicting this, France will probably not move to Brest in the first place, but if he does then so much the better. Honestly, I’ll be happy to get France finished off.
    • I doubt France will lunge for Brest; the more appropriate move is to bounce Italy out of Portugal, and that is what France will probably do.
  • I do have a slight concern that Italy will make a supported move into Gascony and backfill Spain with his fleet. Italy has been very paranoid about my behavior and so I don’t want to take any chances with him.
  • I’ll cast yet another needless, friendly, support-hold order on one of his armies so that I communicate my friendly intent. I might as well keep trying.
• I think Marseilles is more likely to hold than Spain, so there’s a better chance of him seeing the support-hold on the main map. Sometimes I think players don’t notice failed support-hold orders since you have to look at the blow-up map or else the order log.

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