Autumn 1905 – alliance with Russia is working

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Developments: looks like my alliance with Russia is going somewhere

I’ve become too busy in my personal life to write down a prediction for every single unit, which is a real shame because I was enjoying myself doing that. But also, now that the game has progressed many turns, it’s getting more difficult to predict every move anyways (since the game state likely hasn’t existed before). From now on, I’ll use the developments section to just discuss what I think about what happened last turn, rather than discuss whether all my predictions came true.

• England is defending as best he can.
• France is playing much more defensively than I thought – perhaps he is giving up an attack on England, and maybe he even intends to convoy his army back out of Great Britain? That seems kind of foolish to me, but we’ll see.
  • France is by no means damaged by the attacks coming against him from me (Germany) and Italy. They’re very minimal attacks – I’m sending just 2 armies and sort of a fleet, and Italy is using just one.
• Well, I’m glad Russia took my hint and is moving out in the north. He is showing some intent to cooperate with me with his support-hold order. We’ll see if Russia actually ever helps me execute a plan, since Russia has never tried to support any of my moves. It’s been a pretty one-sided relationship, so I’ll be extremely angry if Russia encroaches on me even slightly.
• Turkey is finally trying to reposition to get his fleet into Constantinople, since he’ll eventually get ground down if a second Italian fleet arrives, and he can’t dislodge Aegean Sea with just his one fleet. I think Turkey is still facing some bad consequences to moving his fleet to Black Sea back in 1901.
• Austria, together with that lone Italian fleet, finally has a chance of cracking through Russia and Turkey’s defense this turn if he and Italy coordinate somehow.
• Italy….what the hell….I guess Italy decided that he was so afraid of France, he needed to wall France off with his 2 armies and fleet…even though France literally has just 1 fleet against him. It’s disgraceful. Why wouldn’t Italy pull back his fleet against Turkey if he is so afraid of France? That army in Tunis can’t do ANYTHING to attack France, and I bet you later on Italy will come to regret it as that army might get stranded there.

Strategic thoughts: I’m nervous about getting backdoored

Russia and Austria each have some ability to attack me and it makes me nervous… but neither of them have ever done anything hostile to me in all the preceding years, so I should keep up my attack on France (but not in such a foolhardy way as to leave me open to a backstab).

Orders: I’ll press my attack against France and defend elsewhere

• The army at Burgundy move to Paris.
• The army at Picardy support move to Paris from Burgundy.
  • I….don’t really think this attack will work, but it’s the only shot I have this turn at capturing a supply center, so I may as well try.
  • I could try to use this turn to get additional strong positioning against France, but I don’t believe it is wise to get so far out of position in an Autumn turn without getting a build – it gives too much opportunity for someone to attack me from behind. Spring is the turn for making that type of move – then you’re out of position for only 1 turn.
  • France can counter this attack by poking Picardy with English Channel (or a convoy into Picardy), but that seems unlikely to me. France also has to guard Brest and London this turn.
  • The likely way France will counter my attack is by support-holding Paris with Gascony. If France does that, then the only way France could do that and also push me out of Burgundy would be to move Marseilles to Burgundy supported by Paris – but I doubt France will attempt that as Italy keeps moving Piedmont into Marseilles. So probably my attack will just fail and I’ll stay in Burgundy to keep making attack-guesses next year.
• The army at Munich move to Berlin.
  • Just keeping up appearances here that I do have a rear guard. I still feel weird about the Austrian army in Silesia, no matter how many turns Austria doesn’t attack me. I don’t specifically need my Munich army for anything; I don’t expect my attack on Paris to work. If I did think my attack on Paris would work, I might instead move this into Burgundy to have some kind of follow-through.
  • If Austria did want to attack me, Austria could juke me by moving Silesia to Munich instead of Berlin, but that seems unlikely to me (Austria would have to specifically guess that I would cover Berlin, and that it would be with Munich, and that I won’t back-fill Munich).  Plus, it would be much easier for me to push Austria back out out of Munich than out of Berlin.
• The army at Kiel support hold the army at Denmark.
  • I’m not taking any chances with Russia either. Russia needs to try to take Edinburgh as his next build if he is to be my ally – even though England can easily guard it. If Russia wants a clean shot at Edinburgh, then he should move BOTH his fleets into position. If he wants to leave Sweden as a rear guard, it could take him a long time to get a build, which makes me nervous because that makes it easier for him to get a build from backstabbing me (Germany) than from attacking our mutual enemy.
  • If Russia took Denmark this turn, there would be nothing I could do about it afterwards, and probably having 3 units in the North would be enough for Russia to gain momentum, since he has Austria locked down right now. Russia is probably not afraid of France  at all at this point, since France  is getting harassed by Italy and was invaded by me.
• The fleet at Denmark support hold the fleet at Sweden.
  • I might as well keep communicating my intent to ally with Russia. I could support-hold North Sea, but that unit might move to attack England and I don’t want Russia to miss seeing my support order (since failed supports only appear on the blow-up map).
• The fleet at Belgium support hold the fleet at North Sea.
  • Again, if I’m going to hold with this unit I might as well communicate something to Russia. Probably this order will fail, but it’s better than nothing.
  • I really thought about maybe moving to English channel to set up for some attacks on France next year if it somehow worked, but I am afraid to do something like that in an Autumn turn and then leave Belgium and Holland too vulnerable next year. I’d rather play it slow and steady.

With this move-set, I realize I am leaving Holland totally undefended. I had to make a choice between defending Denmark, Holland, and Belgium – I could only fully defend 2 of the 3. I decided that Holland is the least likely to be attacked (Russia would have to make a wild guess, and destroy our alliance), and also even if Holland were attacked, I would be able to push Russia out the following year since Russia would have no units that can support-hold his fleet in Holland. For Russia to attack Holland would be purely to harass me, and I don’t know why Russia would want to do that right now.

Predictions: I’m not really going to do these now

• I think England and Russia will bounce each other in Edinburgh.
• If Turkey is smart, he’ll support-hold Bulgaria with everything he has – this is probably the turn that Italy and Austria really try to go for it.
• Honestly, I don’t expect anyone to get a build this turn. I think I might be the only player who won’t be fully defending himself from every possible attack actually – which now that I’m saying that, makes me kinda nervous. So I think the only way supply centers would change hands this turn is if someone makes a mistake (England fails to guard Edinburgh against Russia; Turkey fails to guard Bulgaria properly; France doesn’t counter my attack on Paris) or if I am backstabbed by Russia at Holland or unexpectedly attacked by Austria at Munich.

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