Autumn 1904 – 3 vs 1 against England

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Developments: mostly gridlock

• England: 48% (14/29)
  • Finally, some SENSE out of this player.
• France: 61% (19/31)
  • Only surprise here is that France kept his fleet in Western Med. Maybe he is trying to retaliate against Italy for putting his army in Piedmont for no reason? Anyways, this is probably a good development for me since it keeps low the amount of weight France can throw against England.
• Russia: 66% (27/41)
  • Hrm, I just didn’t guess how Russia would fight against Austria and England. The only thing I really got right was the Livonia move.
• Turkey: 70% (19/27)
  • Turkey seems to be in the groove pretty well here now. His defensive position is very strong since Russia is playing a good game and Italy has been completely outplayed by him and is now menaced by that French fleet.
• Austria: 48% (16/33)
  • No progress for Austria. He’s basically fighting Russia and Turkey by himself at this point because France put Italy in a bad position.
• Italy: 63% (17/27)
  • Well, I fully predicted all of Italy’s moves, which makes me sick because they’re f–ing horrible in my opinion. What a game to be saddled with a natural ally helmed by a chump.^[1]I feel kind of bad in retrospect that I called Italy (played by Yoyoyozo) a “chump” about 3 times in this journal. I think I was frustrated that I couldn’t get the help I wanted against France, but also my “chump” accusation was based on my assumption that Italy was actually trying to … Continue reading I’m really disappointed that I correctly predicted that Italy wouldn’t even harass France by moving Piedmont to Marseilles to retaliate against the French encroachment. Italy is doing nothing with 50% of his forces and the other 50% just bounced off each other in Tunis. It feels like Turkey and France are kicking his ass with just 1 fleet each. Good grief.

Strategic thoughts: no builds for me

• I have no chance of getting a build this turn unless I backstab Russia and lunge for Sweden and also Russia doesn’t cover it. That seems really foolish, because I would alienate an ally I’ve tried to get since the beginning of the game, and probably also send a message to the other players that I can’t be trusted whatsoever since I’m willing to betray my ally over just a single point (there’s no way I could eliminate Russia; Russia is the point leader at 7 and is playing a great defensive game in the south; he’s not anywhere close to being eliminated).
• France can make a supported attack on London, and it will work unless England support-holds London and it isn’t poked by Russia or me (Germany), OR France moves his army into London and England fails to either get away with support-holding London or himself pokes the supporting English Channel (however, England‘s potential poke won’t work if France moves his fleet into London supported by Wales).^[2]The choice England has to make is whether to support-hold London with North Sea and hope he doesn’t get poked, or to poke English Channel with North Sea and hope France attacks London with Wales. If France attacks London with English Channel and North Sea gets poked, England loses London … Continue reading
• I don’t see any other supply centers changing hands this turn, so it all comes down to whether England loses a point to France or not.

Orders: I roll the iron dice^[3]the phrase that real-life German Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg used to describe going to war in 1914 and BACKSTAB France 

• The army at Ruhr move to Burgundy.
• The army at Munich support move to Burgundy from Ruhr.
• The army at Belgium support move to Burgundy from Ruhr.
  • This is my chance to break into Burgundy. France convoyed his army over into Wales and does not have enough support to hold Burgundy against my attack. True, France will almost certainly build a new army if he takes London this turn, but at least with Burgundy under my control I will be able to hold him off or (with good guesses) be able to attack further.
  • The only way the move fails is if France support-holds Burgundy with Marseilles (and isn’t poked by Italy) and pokes Belgium with English channel. If he pokes Belgium and my move fails, it almost certainly means he didn’t pick up a build against England, so I’m okay with that outcome.
  • I am moving Ruhr in instead of Munich because I want to keep my perimeter defended against Austria.
• The fleet at Holland support hold the army in Belgium.
  • I am still weirdly nervous that France might attack Belgium, and this hold likely secures it.
  • I don’t really see another use for my fleet. I don’t want to move to North Sea (because that could cut England’s support to London), and the support from Denmark would already be enough for Russia to dislodge England‘s fleet if Russia makes that attack.
• The fleet at Denmark support move to North Sea from Skagerrak.
  • I really hope Russia doesn’t attack North Sea this turn so that England has a chance of not losing a center to France, but for all I know Russia doesn’t care about that at all (France being his natural ally) and would love to see England brought down to 2 (since England attacked him nonstop at the start).
  • So, in the event that Russia does attack North Sea, I do want the attack to succeed (the move likely would even if Russia merely supported himself) and furthermore communicate to Russia that I want him to move into North Sea with his fleets and that I will probably issue more support orders.
    • I already did a similar move last turn, so repeated supports will send a clear message.
    • I also communicate that I want Russia to use Skagerrak, not Norway, to make the move into North Sea.
• The army at Kiel move to Berlin.
  • I hemmed and hawed about whether I should cover Berlin again this Autumn. I really really don’t like leaving that center vulnerable to Austria.
    • I still feel like Austria might become desperate because Turkey is, at this point, worthless to him, and Russia is sending 4 armies against him, which is as many as Austria has. Plus he’s also battling Turkey!
    • Austria looks to have zero chance of successfully taking Warsaw or Rumania – Russia just has too many units in there and Turkey is helping Russia.  If Austria got Berlin, it still might be difficult to push him out, and what does it matter to him because he would get a replacement build back at his home centers?
    • Plus I am friendly to Russia. Austria  can’t make a gain against Russia but he can against me.
  • However, Austria didn’t try to nab Berlin last Autumn, and Russia is very threatening to him. Austria would put himself out of position and probably antagonize me greatly if he did so (for the same reasons I immediately ruled out lunging for Sweden, basically). Furthermore, I already displayed a willingness last Autumn to cover that supply center from him, so if he lunged for Berlin and I blocked him he would do substantial diplomacy damage to himself while also risking that Russia outplays him somehow over Galicia without even getting the build. Austria is probably not going to lunge for Berlin, but I am still just too damn paranoid.
    • I am not going to have a very good follow-up attack if I take Burgundy because I’m not back-filling Ruhr – that’s a very serious price I am paying here – this will turn my Burgundy attack into more like a harassment than an invasion. But that seems to be how some of the players are playing here – sending really small forces just to be a bother, not going all out.
    • I’ll eventually have to seriously consider whether I would help Russia against Austria (or even Austria against Russia), or just try to let them stalemate.

Predictions:

• I think England will play for maximum defense. He will move Clyde to Liverpool. Then he has to either support-hold London with North Sea (and support-hold North Sea with London) or else move North Sea to English Channel to try to cut support. I think he will do the latter because the chances of any of the 4 fleets from Germany and Russia poking North Sea are pretty high, but the chances of France attacking London with English Channel seem maybe 50-50. If England wanted to ensure that his fleet didn’t accidentally move into English Channel, he could bounce with London. That seems a little tricky for how England has been playing this game, but I think that’s what I would do here so I’ll predict that for England.
• I predict that France, feeling like this is now his big chance, will move English Channel into London supported by Wales. It’s the highest chance he has of getting a build, that’s for sure. Plus, having an army in Wales and fleet in London puts him in a VERY strong position to just march up the English coasts and just take the whole island. I think he will repeat his orders with Marseilles and Burgundy (support-holding Burgundy and Belgium). And I yet again predict that France will bring his fleet back into Mid-Atlantic, having made his point to Italy and perhaps wanting more firepower against England (which is why I predicted this last time; the situation hasn’t changed in my opinion).
• I’m not sure if Russia will go for North Sea or if he’ll defend Sweden. If he’s scared because I support-held France‘s army, he’ll bounce himself in Sweden perhaps. I don’t think he would move Norway away to prevent England from retreating there if dislodged by me. Maybe he’ll attack North Sea and try to get there first? That seems the most probable to me I guess – that he moves to North Sea with Norway (nothing threatens Norway other than North Sea) and maybe supported by Skagerrak. That’s my official prediction, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he guarded Sweden with Skagerrak.
  • In the south, I think Russia will repeat all his moves (players usually do that) except he’ll also support-hold Warsaw with Livonia (so Ukraine to Galicia supported by Warsaw and Rumania, Sevastopol support-hold Rumania).
• I think Turkey will repeat all his moves (Eastern Mediterranean Sea to Ionian Sea, Constantinople to Bulgaria supported by Black Sea, Bulgaria to Serbia).
• And gosh you know, I have every reason to think Austria will  pretty much repeat his moves as well (Silesia support-hold Galicia, Budapest to Rumania supported by Serbia and Galicia, Greece to Bulgaria).
• I am pretty resentful towards Italy at this point. His moves are predictably and predictably bad. I think he will repeat his moves as well (Piedmont and Apulia hold, Tyrrhenian and Ionian bounce in Tunis).
  • Notably, Italy was the last player to enter his orders – is he distracted and busy? Is he losing interest in the game due to his poor performance?^[4]In the time since I played this match, webDiplomacy’s rules were changed so that it is not possible to know which players have not yet entered orders.

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