Spring 1913 – I have a shot at a solo win

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Developments: I rate my solo win chances at 25+%

• I am surprised that Russia kept his southern fleet and destroyed one of his armies. This greatly increases the chances that I can take Moscow in addition to Warsaw. If I conquer Moscow, then I only need 2 out of Portugal, Spain and Marseilles to wrap up the solo win.
  • This also probably means I don’t need my Baltic Sea fleet any more in the east. My decision not to build another fleet has worked out perfectly, because now with Russia’s tiny amount of power in the north, I can probably afford to just send the Baltic Sea fleet west (which is just as good as building a fleet, since Baltic Sea is as close to North Sea as Kiel is).

Strategic thoughts: infighting makes my solo possible

• The fact that there are still 6 players (including myself) around during the endgame makes a solo win much more achievable. In any game of Diplomacy, it is an advantage for the player attempting a solo win that there are many powers left alive on the board, because that increases the chances of the players making mistakes or just throwing the game.^[1]In game theory (and with other games in general), deliberately causing another player to win is often called “kingmaking,” but most Diplomacy players describe it as “throwing the game.” But especially in a gunboat game, a big number of surviving players is advantageous to the player attempting a solo win because the defending players cannot send written messages to each other to either 1) make amends for past grievances or 2) discuss how to coordinate their moves so as to form a stalemate line.
  • I cannot overstate how much of a disadvantage it is to the defending players that this is a gunboat game. Because they cannot message each other, they may step on each others’ toes trying to get into the proper positions to form the stalemate line, or may make mistakes about guessing which units they need to support to maintain the line.
  • In this game in particular, France hanging around with just a single fleet in Portugal may make a difference. If that fleet were instead Italy’s fleet, then Italy could just order around all the units to the proper defensive positions. But because Italy doesn’t know what France is going to do (he doesn’t even know if France will just keep attacking him in desperation), his defensive choices are much more limited.
  • It also doesn’t help the defending players that this game is a “hidden draw votes” game; possibly some or even all of them have long had a draw vote up, but are unable to know that about each other since their votes are hidden.
• Because Italy has had to defend himself from Austria for so long, Italy is horribly out of position to block me from taking the key border centers. Portugal, Spain and Marseilles can be held from the south, but to accomplish this, the defending player or players need to have several units (especially fleets) in position to support-hold from behind the defensive line. Italy actually has enough units to do this I think, but he needs to bring his fleets further west and away from his home centers. Since Austria has repeatedly attacked, he’s been forced to keep 2 fleets behind for defense.
  • I said this before, but even if Austria stops attacking Italy, there’s a chance that Italy’s Ionian sea fleet will move into Apulia on an attempt to bounce Austria. This would be a marvelous development for me because it would put Italy’s fleet about as far out of position as I could hope for this game.
• Austria is my MVP. Yeah, that’s right. Even though Austria was driving me nuts during the early game and even harassed me by attempting to take Munich, Austria’s greedy style of play is now working to my advantage. He has held back the other players from forming a stalemate line for many turns, and now there may not be enough time left for them to form a stalemate line (But I still need to make good guesses).
  • If the game ends in a solo win for me, I think the other players will accuse Austria of causing me to solo win due to being so uncooperative for so many years as I got powerful. I think Austria’s excuse will be that he was trying to ensure that he could end up in the draw.^[2]SPOILER ALERT: Indeed, Austria played this entire game ruthlessly and ensured himself a spot in a draw, despite my repeated prognostications that he would be eliminated. Austria played a very strong game, I think much better than I would have done as Austria. I learned how to be a better … Continue reading
• Also, England will probably blame France for failing to accept his good-faith gesture of alliance vs. the apparent G/R/T and I/A alliances. Not exactly relevant at this point, but it is something that crossed my mind.

The big question is: do I finally openly attempt a solo win?

Orders: the big answer is “yes”

I judge that this is the time to strike. Once I am undeniably attempting a solo win, I will only have a few turns before the other players form a stalemate line. They may even start forming a stalemate this turn simply due to the fact that I have so many points (14) and will obviously get more (from Russia). I think either the previous turn or else this current turn will be my last “freebie” before this turns into a 5 vs. 1 battle to the finish. If there is even one other player who does not predict that my blatant solo win attempt is coming this turn, I have a shot at pulling it off. Therefore, I think I should ruthlessly get a sucker punch against them if at all possible.

• The army at Sweden move to Finland.
• The army at Norway move to St. Petersburg.
  • • These moves are really obvious. The move into Finland can’t be stopped, and if Russia bounces Norway out of St. Petersburg then I will take St. Petersburg anyways the following turn with a supported attack. I have no other future plans for these armies other than taking St. Petersburg and then Moscow.
• The fleet at Baltic Sea move to Denmark.
  • • Sometimes Germany should leave a fleet in Baltic Sea to support-hold Berlin and/or to convoy additional armies into Livonia. This is not one of those times. If I solo win, it will be because I attained a sufficient naval presence in and around Iberia very quickly. There is no time to dawdle.
• The fleet at English Channel move to Mid-Atlantic Ocean.
• The fleet at North Atlantic Ocean support move to Mid-Atlantic Ocean from English Channel.
• The fleet at North Sea move to English Channel.
  • • If I were to play this out slow-and-steady, I would move my English Channel fleet to Irish Sea instead of Mid-Atlantic Ocean; that way I would be guaranteed to take Mid-Atlantic Ocean in the Autumn. Because Italy and France have only 2 fleets in Iberia, my 3 fleets would be able to overpower their defenses on the following moving. Attacking this turn could be premature because if France and Italy together make a supported move to Mid-Atlantic Ocean, my moves will fail.
    • However, because France and Italy just mutually attacked each other on the last turn, and have been attacking each other nonstop for many years now, I think there’s a decent chance that they will fail to coordinate a supported move order into Mid-Atlantic Ocean – which is the only moveset capable of stopping my move into Mid-Atlantic Ocean. My orders will work if:
      • France doesn’t cooperate (e.g., moves to Spain again)
      • Italy doesn’t cooperate (e.g., moves to Portugal again)
      • France and Italy both move their fleets to Mid-Atlantic Ocean.
      • France and Italy both support the other’s (nonexistent) move into Mid-Atlantic Ocean.
    • Next, I have to do a cost-benefit analysis. I could move my fleet to Irish Sea and that would be guaranteed to work, but what would I get if I made the risky move and my gamble pays off?
      • Basically, I would put myself 1 turn ahead in invading Iberia. If I can get my fleet in there this turn (as opposed to next turn), then I might be able to follow up by moving that fleet into North Africa or Western Mediterranean, back-filling Mid-Atlantic Ocean with one of my other fleets. After this turn my intent to solo win and my potential moves will be really obvious, so probably Italy will bring some or all of his remaining fleets into position to try to defend Iberia. But if Italy does not do that this turn as I predict (perhaps he feels he must defend against Austria once more) and I get into Mid-Atlantic Ocean, then he won’t be able to stop me from sneaking into the Mediterranean on the next move (his fleets are 2 moves away from that space). But if I delay 1 turn, that might give Italy the extra turn he needs to move his fleets towards me and have a much higher chance of blocking me from getting into the Mediterranean.
        • If Germany can get even a single fleet into the Mediterranean, Germany’s chance of solo winning are greatly increased. Such a fleet is placed behind the stalemate line that the defending players need to form, which increases Germany’s offensive capabilities (the fleet could make support moves or be supported backwards into Spain or Marseilles) and also blocks one of the spaces needed to hold the stalemate line by filling it up.
      • The cost here if my moves fail is…considerable. I will have essentially wasted my entire turn, as far as the west goes. Such a setback is pretty severe and I probably would not be able to solo win. However, I’m not sure if getting into Mid-Atlantic Ocean next turn will be enough for me to solo win anyways. The players in this game should all be extremely familiar with the process of forming a stalemate line, and it is possible for them to form one that holds Portugal, Spain and Marseilles from the south even if I control Mid-Atlantic Ocean – in other words, my control of Mid-Atlantic Ocean will not be enough for me to break through Italy’s defenses if Italy pulls his other fleets into the proper positions.
    • After thinking everything though, I decide in favor of the gamble. It is impossible to win a game of Diplomacy without taking some risks, and I think this is the time to take a risk: I have a decent chance of success and the payoff could be that I am able to solo win. I will definitely kick myself hard if I guess wrong here and France and Italy do make the coordinated move and set me back an entire turn when I could have countered the coordinated move by moving to Irish Sea instead.^[3]Even with the benefit of hindsight, I stand by my analysis at the time. My guess this turn, as you will see, turned out wrong. But the benefit of hindsight does not mean I made the “wrong” decision here. I decided my moves based on a risk-benefit calculation. With a probabilistic … Continue reading
• The army at Burgundy move to Paris.
• The army at Brest support move to Paris from Burgundy.
• The army at Munich move to Burgundy.
• The army at Berlin move to Munich.
• The army at Kiel move to Ruhr.
  • I need to get armies into position to blast Italy out of Marseilles. It’s going to be difficult or even a waste of time, as Marseilles is pretty easily held from the south. However, right now I judge that center to be a key center I need to solo win, so I need to at least try.
  • Italy could counter my move by making a supported move into Burgundy, but 1) I think that is unlikely because Italy can see that it would be easy for me to counter and Italy has been playing defensively; and 2) even if Italy gets into Burgundy, I don’t really care that much because I should be able to surround his unit and get rid of it.
    • Actually, I don’t care if Italy lets me take Marseilles or Spain while sneaking into Belgium or something since I can much more easily go back for Belgium than I can take one of the border centers.
• The army at Prussia move to Livonia.
  • This way of advancing against Russia has a reasonable chance of success. Russia might think that I will make a supported move and not bother to bounce me.
  • If Russia makes a supported move into Warsaw, I can retreat to Prussia and press on. I don’t care if Russia regains Warsaw if that means I get into Moscow; with my control of the north and huge number of armies, I can retake Warsaw easily if I already control Moscow.
• The army at Silesia move to Galicia.
• The army at Warsaw support move to Galicia from Silesia.
  • Initially, I thought I would support-hold Warsaw with Silesia, but then decided that 1) Russia will probably not make a supported attack on Warsaw anyways because he can see how easily I could stop it; and 2) even if Russia gets into Warsaw, it’s not a big deal because I can retreat to Prussia.
  • So with that in mind, the next-best thing I could come up with for Silesia was to move into Galicia. Maybe even with support I will bounce Austria or Russia, and I will consider that an accomplishment. If I somehow get into Galicia, that may open up new opportunities for me.

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