Autumn 1911 – my attack on Russia is working

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Developments: Russia, left in a lurch, tries to ally Austria 

• I make some progress against Russia:
  • I was able to sneak into Skagerrak, and Russia did not try to get into Norwegian Sea. With hindsight, I could have moved to Norwegian Sea and it would have worked, but what’s done is done.
  • I got my army into Livonia, which is a pretty big tactical victory for me. Livonia threatens all 3 Russian home centers that I intend to take. Russia now has to play an anxious guessing-game against me (Germany).
• Russia support-held Budapest and tried to support Austria into Bohemia with Galicia (you can’t see the failed order on this map). That means Russia is trying to ally Austria.
  • Russia is still threatened by Austria, even though Austria did not attack last turn, so we’ll see whether Russia commits his units north and trusts Austria, or waits more turns.
  • Will Austria take this offer of alliance? What can Russia do for Austria? I guess Russia could prevent me from getting a solo win if that’s what they all think I’m about to do.
• Italy and France fought each other in the way I hoped and thought they would.^[1]Italy ordered Marseilles to hold. I don’t know how this could be intentional or advantageous. If Italy didn’t want Gulf of Lyons to actually move to Spain, he should have self-bounced using Marseilles. And if Italy did want to ensure the move worked, he should have supported his move … Continue reading

Strategic thoughts: alliance shake-up in store?

• I’m glad that Austria is still attacking Italy. The more Italy fears Austria, the better my chances of eventually taking Italy’s western gains (because Italy may eventually decide to move in to defend his home centers).
  • I think Russia attempting to ally Austria may freak Italy out…if Austria and Russia make peace, then Austria will likely attack Italy with even more units. Italy may begin fearing that he will be marked for elimination.
  • Perhaps the alliance structure will change to Germany–Italy–Turkey vs. Austria–Russia?
    • Shoot, if that happens I think my chances of a solo win would be slightly increased actually. If Turkey sees a way to avoid elimination by making himself strong and disrupts Austria and Russia, maybe I’ll have a way of getting to a win without taking Marseilles, Portugal, or Spain. It seems unlikely, but hey a fella can hope!
• This isn’t really a strategic thought, it’s just something that crossed my mind: I wonder if describing my thoughts and explaining my moves in this journal is elevating my ability. I intend to publish this document, so my decisions and explanations will eventually be scrutinized by strangers and probably the other players who participated in this game. I feel really motivated to impress everyone with my ability, but in addition to being motivated, I am also taking my time each turn to methodically think through all my moves, which I think reduces my chances of making a mistake.

Orders: full steam ahead against Russia

• The fleet at Skagerrak move to Sweden.
• The army at Denmark support move to Sweden from Skagerrak.
• The army at Edinburgh move to Norway (via convoy).
• The fleet at North Sea convoy an army to Norway from Edinburgh.
  • As I build my moveset, these are the first moves I figured out because I am guaranteed to take Sweden from Russia.
    • Because Russia could poke Skagerrak with Norway, Sweden or both, it is possible that a move into Norway or Sweden supported by Skagerrak will fail. Therefore, if I use Skagerrak to make the attack, any poke attempt will either fail (the attacking unit’s move will fail) or end up being juked.
  • In my personal philosophy of Diplomacy strategy, I highly value moves that are guaranteed to result in some progress against an enemy (particularly moves that are sure to net me a build). There is so much gambling and risk-taking in Diplomacy (especially early game or whenever you otherwise have a small number of units), I think unnecessary risk-taking is foolish. I think the only time when I would forgo some guaranteed progress is if I wanted to make some huge gamble that could result in a massive payoff (like backstabbing an ally in order to make a solo win viable).
    • Furthermore, in this game in particular, I might accomplish something diplomatically by forcing Russia to disband a unit. Russia’s choice of which unit to destroy will tell everyone a lot about Russia’s strategy and intentions. Likely, Russia’s choice will be something that another player dislikes or can take advantage of, which will help me diplomatically. For example, Austria may try to dogpile Russia with me if Russia looks too weakened.
  • To make my move into Sweden with Skagerrak guaranteed, I have to move a unit into Norway to cause any support orders to fail. I could do this just by moving North Sea, but I decided that a convoy is better in the off-chance that Russia somehow leaves Norway open (like if Russia horribly misreads my turn and thinks he should bounce me in Norwegian Sea and doesn’t back-fill Norway with Sweden). My goal will eventually be to actually convoy that army into Norway, even after this order likely fails.
  • I could take either Norway or Sweden, but I decided that it is better to take Sweden now and try to follow up by convoying my Edinburgh army into Norway on a later turn. Furthermore, if I take Norway, Russia might just retreat into Norwegian Sea (assuming he holds or makes a failed move) and basically get a free extra move from his fleet.
  • Finally, I thought really hard about the importance of taking Sweden with an army as I have stated before (on the importance of getting armies into Scandinavia so that eventually St. Petersburg is conquered with an army instead of a fleet), but I decided that it was more important to guarantee my build. After all, I have an army in Edinburgh that I might eventually use to take Norway and then St. Petersburg, and if I get my fleet into Baltic Sea I will eventually be able to convoy Denmark east (into Livonia perhaps, or perhaps a double-convoy into St. Petersburg), or even back-fill Sweden with Denmark on a later turn.
• The fleet at Berlin move to Baltic Sea.
  • • Russia might bounce me again, but he probably can’t bounce me forever. In any case, I can’t let him get into Baltic Sea or retreat there.
• The army at Gascony move to Brest.
• The army at English Channel move to Brest.
  • • I want to guard Brest. Although it is extremely likely that France will move to Portugal because that is the only way he is guaranteed to stay alive, I personally think it is not worth the risk to leave centers unguarded when it is possible to defend them. This game, I think, has demonstrated this wisdom.
      • Also, I don’t want to attack Italy and have nothing better to do with Gascony.
    • As for English Channel, I want to bounce in Brest so that I don’t actually move my army out of Gascony.
      • Furthermore, there’s nothing else really to do with English Channel. Moving to Mid-Atlantic Ocean won’t do anything, and I am extremely reluctant to move my fleet anywhere away from France while France is still around with a fleet (in desperation, France might still try to get behind my lines).
    • I thought really hard about moving North Sea to Norwegian Sea this turn and backfilling with English Channel, but once I went with my plan to guarantee that I take Sweden, I ruled out backfilling North Sea.
• The army at Silesia move to Warsaw.
• The army at Munich move to Silesia.
• The army at Burgundy move to Munich.
  • Regardless of what I do with Livonia, I want to move all my other armies east and away from Italy. I want to show Italy that I’m not at all interested in fighting him or guarding against him…I want to show that it’s that pesky Russian player who is blocking my moves that would otherwise send my armies away from him (Italy). I feel almost certain that all or at least some of my eastward army moves will fail; they’re mostly unsupported, and if my attack on Warsaw fails then the entire chain of moves will fail.
• The army at Livonia support move to Warsaw from Silesia.
  • As far as Livonia goes, I do have a lot of options this turn. I think I’m being realistic here when I say that there’s a chance I might take St. Petersburg if I just lunged for it (if Russia gambles that I wouldn’t do that), or even Moscow (if Russia moved Moscow out and didn’t back-fill). But I have a suspicion that Russia will do some combination of moves to try to cover as many centers as possible
    • For example, Russia could bounce Moscow and Norway off of each other in St. Petersburg and support Galicia into Warsaw with Ukraine. Such a moveset would guarantee that Russia loses no more than 1 center to me (Germany) this turn (but he could still lose to Austria).
  • It would be awesome if I could take 2 centers from Russia this turn, but it is just very difficult to choose what guess to make, and perhaps my guess won’t matter at all if Russia all-out defends against me. Here’s what I’m thinking:
    • St. Petersburg could be covered by Norway, Moscow, or both (if Russia bounced there). Russia probably senses that if I get an army into St. Petersburg, it’s curtains for him in the north and probably Warsaw and Moscow would follow. So given the strategic importance of preventing me from getting an army in St. Petersburg and the ease with which Russia can cover it, I think that’s not the right move here.
      • Of course, Russia might understand that about me – that I rarely make greedy plays – and get away with not guarding St. Pete (or Moscow for that matter). We’ll see how it goes!
    • I also think it’s too easy for Russia to cover Moscow. Russia could bounce himself out or back-fill with Ukraine.
    • And, to be fair, it’s really easy for Russia to make a supported move into Warsaw and block my supported attack. HOWEVER, to do that – to make a supported move into Warsaw – Russia will have to pull units or support away from the Austrian front. Is Russia willing to do this? ….probably yes actually. Russia and Austria have accomplished nothing against each other since Russia prevented Austria from keeping Rumania way early on. But I think it’s just a little bit less likely than the other two moves.
  • So given that I think all of these moves are likely to fail, why did I decide to support Silesia into Warsaw?
    • First, because it is slightly more likely to accomplish something: If Russia makes a supported move into Warsaw, but only with 1 support (as opposed to 2, which is possible), Russia will at least be BOUNCED out of Warsaw, which will give me slightly more options in 1912 (such as: I could make an unsupported move to Prussia and it would be guaranteed to work).
    • Second, if Russia moves Norway to St. Petersburg (to cover it against my Livonia army) and is not self-bounced by Moscow, then Russia will cease to threaten a move to Norwegian Sea, which would be a big plus for me (I’ve been worried for quite a while now about Russia getting behind my lines that way and becoming an eternal nuisance). In other words, there’s a moveset Russia might make where he does me a favor by moving to St. Petersburg and I don’t want to interfere with that.

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