Winter 1907 (Builds) – a lucky guess and a build!

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Developments / Strategic thoughts: Awwwww yeah!!

• Finally, a break from stalling out after I (Germany) reached 6 points in 1902. It seems that my patient, methodical, loyal play is paying off. Let’s discuss my seizure of Brest first.
  • So I either made a lucky guess or else France screwed up his orders this turn. France did a hold order with Mid-Atlantic Ocean, which is possibly a good move, but he entered a support-hold with Gascony to Spain that failed because he moved Spain – what is that about? A misorder? Was he trying to communicate something? What I mean is, if he was going to move Spain to Western Med, why didn’t he backfill Spain with Mid-Atlantic or Gascony, or why didn’t he bounce Mid-Atlantic and Gascony off of each other in Brest to guard it – anything? I really don’t get it, so my guess is that France messed up his orders here. What a mistake! But this mistake may be the breakthrough I worked so hard to set up.
  • I feel vindicated in my decision to move my fleet into Brest just in case it worked.
• Next, let’s talk about my convoy! My convoy worked – awesome! Since England made a failed support order for Mid-Atlantic Ocean to English Channel (with London), I would have held North Sea as long as Russia didn’t support England’s move. Nevertheless, I appreciate Russia’s consistent support here. My unconditional support of Russia is paying off – Russia clearly considers me his ally and, in recent turns, has finally done orders that actually help me instead of merely attacking the same player as me.
  • Russia also executed a failed support-hold to Denmark, but he was obviously just trying to make a point; that doesn’t accomplish anything. It’s nice, but the support-hold to North Sea actually matters because it ensured I wouldn’t get dislodged (which would have made my convoy fail).
  • This is an extremely bad development for England, because I have an army on Great Britain and he only has fleets – the fleets can’t move through the middle or execute any support orders through the middle, so I have this enormous tactical advantage against him in my invasion, even though I only have 1 army in there right now.
• Maybe this is repetitive but I am PUMPED that ALL my orders worked last turn! Every single one was successful. It’s a really big deal and puts me in a strong position.
  • I did a good job reading England correctly – he was, clearly, most concerned that I would try to convoy into London (try get a build if I took it), so he did a support-hold order on London. He probably thought it was really unlikely that I would do such a risky thing as convoying onto Great Britain during an Autumn turn (without aiming at a supply center).
    • It is risky; Now I’ll have to go an entire year without that army, since a convoy into a non-supply-center territory doesn’t result in a build that I can use for backup defense. But I got lucky with my attack on France, because I will be able to build a replacement army back in my home centers for defense, unrelated to my attack on England.
• I’m glad to see that Turkey is defending himself still. If I am ever to go for a solo win, I don’t want Turkey to collapse – I want him to be a nuisance forever – and if I’m going to play for a draw, I want Turkey eliminated only at the very end (in order to deter my allies from thinking they have nothing else to do besides go for a solo win).
• Italy finally, FINALLY seems like he’s getting his act together. He brought his army back into Apulia (awesome – this will scare Austria and deter him from coming back after me again; it was doing nothing in Tunis) and made an attack on France and Turkey.
• I also like seeing that Russia made a serious effort to attack Austria finally. I hope Russia stays loyal to me and that he and Austria continue to be menacing towards each other. Right now, the worst thing I can see happening is maybe Austria and Russia make peace and Russia comes after me from the east and north – that’s way, way more threatening than anything else I can imagine right now. Nevertheless, Russia has clearly tried to communicate as much as possible that he is my ally (holding me with every possible unit), and he didn’t move any armies into Prussia or Silesia, even though he could have, possibly because he didn’t want to scare me and has seen (from what Austria did) that I am easily spooked by that positioning and take action to guard against it.
• France has to disband a unit this turn. Which unit France disbands will make a big difference in whether I make a follow-up attack on France or wait for Italian help and focus on making more attacks on England.
  • Since I got Brest in a lucky guess, I have no way of holding Brest next year against a French attack; France can make a supported attack into Brest and there’s nothing I can do about it. It really sucks that I have a fleet in Brest and not an army, because an army could come backwards to take Paris, but a fleet can’t. Seriously, it’s usually not a big deal to lose Brest to a fleet when you’re France.
  • Accordingly, I am going to lose the unit I get to build unless I can make the right moves again this next year, allowing myself to take some other supply center to make up for the likely loss of Brest. Probably that will have to be Paris, London, or Liverpool. Of those, the English centers seem more likely, as I am pretty sure France can easily retake Brest and hold Paris against me; my armies are just too far out of position and Italy isn’t threatening France enough yet either. It will probably be another 2 years before France goes below 3. So I’m hoping that Italy can take a French center next year, or that France has no open home center to build on, and meanwhile I take an English center to offset the eventual loss of Brest.

Orders: army time

• Build an army at Munich.
  • This is an easy choice. If I build in Berlin, that implies hostility to Russia, since Berlin is closer to Warsaw and Sweden than any French or English supply center. It wouldn’t make sense and would just confuse, alienate, and antagonize Russia, especially when there’s no reason for me to guard Berlin this turn (and if encroached upon, I can still likely guard Berlin with the armies I have).
  • From Munich, I can defend Munich or Berlin against simple encroachments. I could even move into Tyrolia if I wanted to assist Russia against Austria (I probably would not do that, but I could, and this possibility should keep Austria honest).^[1]I’ve used the phrase “keep [a player] honest” a few times in this journal. Let me explain what I mean: there are many tactical situations where a player can theoretically make a move, and the theoretical possibility that the player could make that move can be enough to manipulate … Continue reading I can also backfill Burgundy if I’m able to press my attack on France, based on what France disbands.
  • If I were to build a FLEET in Berlin, that would signal that I may be attacking Russia, or at least that some kind of attack is possible, since the obvious follow-up move for such a unit is up into Baltic Sea. In response, Russia would probably move into Prussia, Silesia, or both – if I were to build a fleet in Berlin, or perhaps even just an army, that slight provocation might be all that is necessary to cause Russia to ally Austria and come after me. Strategically, that’s my worst nightmare right now. And what is the benefit of building a fleet anyways? To use against England? I already have enough fleets actually, since I currently have control of North Sea. If Russia continues to support me in North Sea, then I’d much rather convoy armies to attack England.
    • It’s a lot of trouble to keep sending fleets through the North Sea, since England can keep moving into North Sea, bounce my back-fills, and thus it would take several turns to push units through (if it even works at all). Whereas with convoying armies, I just hold with my fleet (a convoy order functions similarly to a hold order), making it easy for Russia to understand he should support-hold to North Sea, and then I can flip the armies forward without much risk of getting locked out of North Sea.
    • It would probably be hard for Russia to coordinate with me since he wouldn’t know what I was doing, and also might just scare Russia that I was going after Norway. Furthermore, fleets aren’t really as good for invading Great Britain, since the armies can compromise the defenses way more quickly once the convoy works. Often, if England lets an army onto Great Britain, all his defenses collapse (I say that as a general statement, but in this game France got his army pushed out earlier actually).

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