Spring 1914 – all my hope is in the west

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Developments: nothing unexpected

Strategic thoughts: they have a stalemate line in the east

• I don’t see how I can break through in the east.^[1]Actually, they had positions for a stalemate line, and then the following turn, as you will see, Austria threw the stalemate line into question. I really thought I was shut down in the east on this turn, but the following turn felt like I had at least a small chance of getting through. I … Continue reading I know that I previously mused that perhaps they didn’t have enough armies, but as I look at the board now I realize that they do have enough units to form a line. I won’t get through into Bohemia or Galicia, and getting into Ukraine wouldn’t accomplish anything because they can hold the line even if I have Ukraine.
• I have to go all-in on the west. I don’t think my chances are that good (I said 25%, that sounds right to me still), but if Italy or France makes a big mistake, then maybe I can still win. The problem here for me is that there probably are not enough turns for me to get two of the needed supply centers before the defending players have the stalemate line set up.

Orders: I’ll give Italy an opportunity for a mistake

• The fleet at English Channel move to Mid-Atlantic Ocean.
• The fleet at Irish Sea support move to Mid-Atlantic Ocean from English Channel.
• The fleet at North Atlantic Ocean support move to Mid-Atlantic Ocean from English Channel.
• The fleet at North Sea move to English Channel.
• The army at Brest move to Gascony.
• The army at Paris support move to Gascony from Brest.
• The army at Burgundy support move to Gascony from Brest.
• The army at Munich support hold the army in Burgundy.
  • Here’s my trap:
    • It is possible that Italy could make the following analysis for himself:
      • “I need to buy more time to get my fleets into the stalemate positions. Germany will take Mid-Atlantic Ocean this turn no matter what I do. So maybe I should poke Brest with my Mid-Atlantic Ocean fleet, which could cut a support-move order and slow down Germany’s advance. Then when my fleet is dislodged, I’ll retreat to Western Mediterranean or North Africa.
    • If Italy moves to Brest…he has fallen for my trap. I am deliberately leaving Brest open in hopes that Italy will move into it, away from the stalemate line, and thus be unable to retreat into the Mediterranean when I take Mid-Atlantic Ocean.
  • I don’t care if Italy gets behind my line. I have so many units now that I will eventually clear him out of Brest. If Italy takes Brest, it doesn’t matter either because I won’t even lose a unit (I’m at 16 supply centers but only 15 units) and I will inevitably regain control of Brest. What I need now is a chance to take Portugal/Spain/Marseilles, because once Italy forms a stalemate line, it will become impossible for me to win by force. If Italy’s fleet gets stuck at Brest, that unit will have a greatly-reduced capacity for guarding the critical centers (the fleet could only poke Mid-Atlantic Ocean or Gascony).
  • It is possible that Italy will just hold with Mid-Atlantic Ocean and then retreat, but maybe if I leave Brest open there’s a possibility that Italy will mistakenly “retreat” into Brest, thinking he is better off doing something disruptive behind my line than trying to set up the stalemate position. I doubt Italy would take the bait in that situation, but I need Italy to make a mistake here if I’m going to win so I should give him the opportunity to make such mistakes.
  • Importantly, this moveset is guaranteed to take Mid-Atlantic Ocean and Gascony. This sets me up for possible attacks on Spain and Marseilles in Autumn.
  • Munich’s support-hold order greatly reduces the chances that Italy could break into Burgundy with Gascony. It is possible for Austria to poke with Tyrolia and cancel this order, but that seems unlikely to me.
    • I thought about moving Munich to Tyrolia to cut support or disrupt a shuffle into Piedmont, but I’d rather play it safe and guard Burgundy.
• The army at Kiel move to Ruhr.
  • Nothing better to do here. This is a slightly better position in case I want to backfill Burgundy later instead of Munich.
• The army at Moscow move to Ukraine.
• The army at Warsaw support move to Ukraine from Moscow.
• The army at St. Petersburg move to Moscow.
  • I don’t expect it to make any difference that I have an army in Ukraine even if my move works and I get in. Russia could easily bounce this move. However, there’s a chance that Russia lets me in, and if I do get into Ukraine I might be in position to take advantage of a mistake made by Austria.
• The army at Livonia move to Prussia.
  • I might as well move this army to somewhere slightly more useful. I don’t have to hold anything with it this turn.
• The army at Silesia move to Bohemia.
• The army at Berlin move to Silesia.
  • I doubt this will work, but I can’t think of anything better to do.
  • I have the back-fill order in the off-chance that my Silesia army really does get into Bohemia.

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