Spring 1904 – not much for me to do

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Developments: Russia might get in trouble vs. Austria again

• England: 42% (11/26)
  • Thank goodness he kept the fleets.
• Russia: 74% (25/34)
  • Darn, I guess Russia got scared by that English army and the possible suicide attacks England could make. In my opinion, England made a mistake when he retreated the army to Finland instead of disbanding, because now Russia built this army in St. Petersburg (probably in response) and Russia may now just use that army to attack England even more (like if Russia moves Norway to Norwegian Sea and back-fills with the St. Petersburg army, thus threatening a convoy onto Great Britain).^[1]On my second look before publishing this journal, I now question my comment that England made a mistake in waiting until the builds phase to disband his unit. Although I think if it were me I would have disbanded during the retreats phase in order to cause Russia to feel safe from me, I can now … Continue reading
    • However, Russia may have to pay a price for that build – Russia cannot now support-hold both Warsaw and Rumania with enough supported to guard against any Austria attack (and Austria attack seem extremely likely since Austria has attacked nonstop the whole game).

Strategic thoughts: is France my ally vs. England?

• England cannot stop France from convoying into Wales this turn. That’s an extremely dangerous situation for England to be in. Furthermore, because I don’t have any army in Munich, I can’t make a credible threat on attacking France even if France makes the convoy. Therefore, France is likely to take a risk and make the convoy, and either way England is likely to guard against that.
• France made a symbolic gesture of friendship by support-holding my army at Belgium…but I am not sure if there’s anything serious to that. I’ll have to think about it. 

Orders: I’m turtling this turn^[2]To “turtle” means to play defensively. This jargon is not specific to Diplomacy.

I thought about my moves all day, and I just couldn’t think of anything creative or interesting.

• The army at Ruhr support hold the army at Belgium.
• The army at Holland support hold the army at Belgium.
  • This, once again, maximizes my protection of Belgium. The only way I could lose it is if France and England made some kind of concerted attack, which seems as unlikely as ever.
• The army at Belgium support hold the army at Burgundy.
  • I might as well go back to communicating friendly intent to France. Russia isn’t going to backstab me with Austria lining up all his armies to attack him. Plus I think I will come across as just wanting to eliminate England.
• The army at Kiel support hold the fleet at Denmark.
  • Prevents England from coming after me. I consider him a horrible wildcard at this point and I am definitely taking no chances there.
• The fleet at Denmark support move to North Sea from Norway.
  • May not do anything, but continues to communicate my pro-Russian and anti-English attitude even if it doesn’t work.
• The army at Berlin move to Munich.
• • If I am ever to attack France, I have to be back in a proper position. France might get smart with his guesses and bounce me out, but I am playing this turn very cowardly so what can I do? I don’t think Austria will move to Berlin or Munich, especially after I made that guarded move and now that I have armies in position to push him out if he makes a greedy play against me.

Predictions: maybe France will convoy against England 

• Sheesh, I don’t know at this point. If England values his survival he should move Edinburgh to Clyde, North Sea to London, and Skagerrak to North Sea for maximum defense.
• France probably did not really want to move into Western Mediterranean; I think he was just playing defense. Italy turned out to still be committed to the same Lepanto strategy so I suppose France will respect that and move that fleet back to Mid-Atlantic. Plus, England is now very vulnerable (to France specifically because of England‘s horrible positions) so France probably should throw everything against England. I further predict Marseilles to support-hold Burgundy and Burgundy to support-hold Belgium, and for France  to convoy Picardy into Wales. That convoy – especially with only a small number of armies for defense – would be risky, but I think France will imagine that I am unwilling to attack him (I moved out of Munich and did not rebuild in Munich) and try to get control of an English home center this Autumn. It’s his best chance at a build.
  • Even though I predict this, I can’t make an effective attack on France this turn even if I wanted to, in my opinion. Without anybody helping (England or Italy) and especially with my army missing from Munich, I can’t accomplish anything.
• It would be cool if Russia moved Norway to North Sea and backfilled with St. Petersburg (supported by Sweden) but I think that’s asking too much of him with all these Austrian armies bearing down on him. I predict that Russia will chill out and support-hold Norway with Sweden and use Norway to support someone’s fleet into North Sea just to make a gesture (maybe Holland). Meanwhile, Russia will support-hold Rumania with Sevastopol and Ukraine (to guarantee Rumania can’t be blown up) and move St. Petersburg to Livonia. He’ll hold with Warsaw maybe and hope Warsaw isn’t attacked (or that if it is he’ll be in position to regain it the following turn). Oh, and Rumania will support Bulgaria to Serbia again.
• I think Turkey will feel he has no choice but to move Eastern Mediterranean into Ionian Sea again. Maybe to help Russia, he’ll move Bulgaria to Serbia and support Constantinople into Bulgaria with Black Sea.
  • If I were him, I would support-hold Rumania with Black Sea and Bulgaria with Constantinople to ensure that Rumania can’t be blown up even if Russia uses Ukraine to support-hold Warsaw. Austria would definitely, definitely use any foothold to come after Turkey in Bulgaria.
• I predict that Austria will support Ionian Sea into Aegean Sea (again) with Greece. I’m not sure if Austria will attack Warsaw or Rumania. I’ll guess Warsaw since that seems more likely to work. I predict that Austria will move Silesia to Warsaw, supported by Galicia. I predict that Austria will move Budapest to Rumania supported by Serbia.
• Italy is my great disappointment. My natural ally is really wasting a lot of time and now he has antagonized France without actually doing anything that would help me (like moving into Marseilles to cut France’s support, which would allow me to break through). Now he has to fear France sneaking into Tunis. Frick! Turkey is completely on to Italy‘s Lepanto. Italy will probably expect Turkey to move into Ionian again. Maybe Italy will bounce his fleets off of each other in Tunis and wait for France to leave? And I suppose Italy‘s armies will just hold again for no real benefit. Wish he would poke Marseilles in retaliation to French encroachment.

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