Autumn 1914 – even still, I’m not sure I can win

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Developments: Italy was tricked, Austria is a bit nutty

• I lured Italy into Brest as I had hoped. It’s not much, but it’s something. I’ll need everything I can get if I’m going to get the two more centers needed to win.
• Austria moved 3 armies south and east – what the heck? I suppose he was nervous that Italy took Venice or maybe wanted to plan some kind of revenge? Or maybe Austria is really trying to help Italy hold Marseilles and it just looks like he was attacking. I’m not completely sure what to make of Austria ’s moveset.

Strategic thoughts: I still need to exploit more mistakes if I’m to win

• To get a solo win is always difficult.  But a solo win is even more difficult without first having conquered some distant supply centers.
• I think Italy has enough time to get into position to defend Spain and Portugal. If Austria helps him hold Marseilles, then there’s probably no way I’ll ever take that center. Italy’s fleets are getting into position to defend Spain, so if I don’t get through soon it’s probably over for my solo win attempt. I might even get into Spain but not Portugal and get into a situation where I can only trade Spain for Portugal and then get stalemated, or something like that.
• Perhaps what I really need for the win here is some huge mistake by Austria, or a mistake from someone else caused by Austria’s weird play.^[1]Looking for the defending players to make a mistake is a great way of seeking a solo win. Sometimes players get confused or overlook the moves that are necessary for them to make a stalemate line. For that reason, I never vote draw until an impenetrable stalemate line has actually formed, and even … Continue reading Maybe then I could nab Vienna. That seems like a long shot to me though. A solo win often depends on other players making mistakes, and in a high-level game that seems unlikely.
  • There’s a chance maybe that Austria is actually going to attack Italy or that Italy will get scared by what Austria is doing. If that happens, then I’ll have a bigger chance of winning.
• Another possible mistake is that Turkey might think Italy won’t move to Ionian Sea with Apulia and so moves his own fleet to Ionian Sea, only for the two players to bounce each other out. That also seems unlikely, but is possible.

Orders: I can pin down Italy and advance in the east

• The fleet at Mid-Atlantic Ocean move to North Africa.
  • Nobody can stop this move! Getting past Mid-Atlantic Ocean is an important step for Germany.
• The fleet at North Atlantic Ocean move to Mid-Atlantic Ocean.
• The fleet at Irish Sea support move to Mid-Atlantic Ocean from North Atlantic Ocean.
  • I must back-fill Mid-Atlantic Ocean. There’s a chance that Italy and France will make a combined move that bounces me back. That would be bad for me, but I’ll explain later why it’s more important for me to use English Channel to fight Brest.
• The army at Gascony move to Brest.
• The army at Paris support move to Brest from Gascony.
• The fleet at English Channel support move to Brest from Gascony.
• The army at Burgundy move to Marseilles.
  • This moveset, combined with my move into Mid-Atlantic Ocean, guarantees that Brest must retreat. Either Italy will move that fleet to Picardy or he’ll disband it.
  • I have to give up my position in Gascony to do this, but I think it is worth it. Italy getting a build from Brest is worse than him disbanding and rebuilding. I can always come back and get Gascony again. The important part here is that I didn’t let his fleet retreat to Western Med or North Africa where it likely would have blocked my advance into the Mediterranean this turn. I’ve accomplished what I wanted with my trick.
  • If Italy moved Brest to Gascony supported by Spain and Marseilles and I did not counter such a move, Italy would take Brest or blow up Gascony. I can’t let that happen.
• The army at Moscow move to Sevastopol.
  • This cuts support in case Russia makes an attack.
• The army at Warsaw move to Galicia.
• The army at Silesia support move to Galicia from Warsaw.
• The army at Prussia move to Warsaw.
• The army at Ukraine move to Rumania.
  • I am guaranteed to advance into Galicia and back-fill with Prussia.
• The army at Munich move to Bohemia.
• The army at Berlin move to Munich.
• The army at Ruhr support move to Munich from Berlin.
  • I don’t expect this to work, since the move is easily bounced by either of Austria’s armies, but Austria seems to be playing a bit crazy right now so maybe this has a chance of working.

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