Autumn 1910 – farewell England, hello war with Russia 

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Developments: Russia attacked me anyways

• All things must come to an end. I incorrectly predicted or gambled, however you want to phrase it, that Russia would continue to play peacefully with me after seeing my army build.^[1]In retrospect, I think it was diplomatically beneficial to me that Russia started attacking me and breaking down our alliance first. I of course harbored ideas about perhaps backstabbing Russia before Russia ever started attacking me (as discussed in my previous journal entries), but I think if … Continue reading
  • I suppose Russia might have decided he no longer had any choice but to attack me, either because I am simply so powerful now that I am a threat to him no matter what, or possibly because he was so sure that he antagonized me by his attempt to take Denmark (or that I antagonized him by trying to put my army there, but that seems unfair to me) that he felt he had squandered our friendship and needed to carry forward as enemies. That’s unfortunate for me, but in fairness to Russia I have been seriously contemplating how to backstab him for a while now.
  • I’ll have to rethink my plan on how to build two units this turn, since Russia correctly countered my move into Denmark. I’ll have to find a way to somehow cover Denmark but also make sure I have at least 2 of my home centers open.
• England is toast. There’s no way I’ll give him any chance of coming back into Liverpool.
• I like that Italy moved into Portugal and France into Spain. That could be good for me (Germany) because I want those two to stay hostile if I’m going to come into Iberia later and take it for myself. If France is afraid to move to Mid-Atlantic Ocean because it means Italy will snuff him out, I will probably get to waltz into Mid-Atlantic Ocean without support at some point.
• Turkey is trying to re-ally Russia I guess. If that happens, that would be a GREAT development for my solo win chances, because if Russia and Turkey can hold off Austria indefinitely, and if Austria gets no more builds, I may be able to break through the center or into the Mediterranean later on. The longer the fighting in the south goes on before any one power can consolidate strength, the better for my solo win chances as a northern power.
  • With the benefit of hindsight, it seems like such a mis-step for Russia to have moved into Black Sea and antagonized Turkey, only to now be forced to re-ally Turkey due to facing a much stronger Austria. This is good for me as I said; I’m just commenting that it seems like a strategic mistake for Russia to take Black Sea, thus forcing Turkey to turtle up instead of being in position to fight Austria. Maybe I’m wrong about this though, we’ll see how it shakes out.
• Oh me oh my, I am EXTREMELY happy to see that Italy has turned almost everything he has to fight Austria. Not only will this likely contain Austria (I don’t want Austria to get any additional builds), but it also means Italy is leaving a skeleton force in the west, which is what I need him to do if I’m going to pull off a backstab on him.
  • I am speaking very generally here, but in my experience often the first player to backstab a particular power is not the one to profit from the attack – it’s the second backstabber who profits the most. See, usually when someone backstabs you, you move all your units up against the backstabber to defend as much as possible. The thought process is simple: “Well, that player is attacking the crap out of me, and so-and-so isn’t yet, so I better defend against the guaranteed hostility and gamble that nobody else joins in this attack.” Let’s apply this general lesson to this particular game:
    • In this game, Italy‘s two allies have been Austria and me (Germany). I consider myself Italy‘s ally because I helped Italy into Marseilles and we cooperated with each other to invade France. Italy was wary of me, true, but I never ever attacked Italy or did anything detrimental to him.
    • Here, Austria has just backstabbed Italy (Italy never attacked Austria even once before this). Actually, that phrasing may be too mild; Austria has not just backstabbed Italy but placed Italy in mortal danger by threatening to take all the Italian home centers. Based on his actions, Austria is intending, as far as I can tell, to eliminate Italy. Italy has reacted against this backstab by moving his units away from me (Germany) and towards Austria. Italy has probably made the simple calculation that Austria is the far bigger threat to him than I am, since I’ve never attacked Italy and don’t have anything close to the solo win score of 18.
    • But….will I be the one to profit most from Austria‘s backstab? Only time will tell.
  • This is great! This is exactly what I need to happen. I need the southern players to mistrust each other so much that they would rather fight a huge war against each other than put up a defense against me. I need Italy, for example, to feel he is so close to being eliminated by Austria that he’d rather let me (Germany) get closer to a solo win as his best possible defense (my winning or him being eliminated being the same outcome as far as he is concerned, plus he can force Austria to stop trying to take him out if I reach 15-17 centers).

Strategic thoughts: I simply must make sure I get my 2 builds this time

• • If I can just keep two of my supply centers open without losing Denmark, I’ll be able to get my two builds. One fleet build is okay, but two fleet builds would be better if I’m going to fight Russia full-on next year.
    • I could leave Munich open if I’m willing to gamble that Austria won’t try to take it from me, or guard Munich by self-bouncing. But if I build my unit in Munich, it will have to be an army.
  • When I fight Russia next year, I’ll need to do everything I can to keep him contained in Scandinavia. I don’t want Russia to get a fleet in North Sea (easy to stop) OR Norwegian Sea (trickier to stop). This is important because if Russia gets into Norwegian Sea, he could move into Edinburgh, or get further behind my lines and try for Liverpool from North Atlantic Ocean.
    • This is a serious strategic threat to my attacks on Russia because when I start taking Russia’s centers, Russia will probably decide to disband his fleet in Black Sea, and maybe one of his other southern armies, before he will destroy either of his fleets in the North (since I am a much bigger threat to him than Turkey is). So if I close in on Russia in Sweden and Norway while letting Russia sneak around the north of Great Britain, Russia could become a huge, and perhaps permanent, nuisance.
      • Recall how, earlier in this match, I highly valued moving my fleets in such a way as to prevent England from getting away from Great Britain somehow; I wanted to wall him in and then finish him off. That worked out for me so well. Similarly, if I go to war with Russia, I intend to win that war. I can’t guarantee that I’ll make the best moves, but I’ll sure try. If I make successful guesses against Russia, Russia will become desperate and may try to put a fleet behind my lines to act as a nuisance unit that I’ll never be able to surround and eliminate with my limited forces (especially if Russia is also succumbing to some attacks from Austria and has no other strategy to avoid elimination).
    • I can guard northern Britain with the army I have there now, if needed. However, recall what I stated in a previous entry: if at all possible, I want to convoy that army into Norway against Russia so that, in the long run, I have a way to successfully conquer Warsaw and/or Moscow by being able to support those attacks with an army in St. Petersburg. So another reason I want to contain Russia in Scandinavia is that I want my army in Great Britain to be free for convoy into Norway.
    • Finally, I need to keep in mind that if I make an attack on Norway that works, but Russia retreats to Norwegian Sea, I might create this very problem for myself. Although I get a build by taking Norway, Russia will probably keep a fleet that he can get into Norwegian Sea.
    • Therefore, taking all 3 of these points into account, it is of tremendous importance that I get a fleet into Norwegian Sea before invading Norway. Perhaps it is important that I get a fleet in there ASAP; I’m not sure yet. If I don’t move to Norwegian Sea this turn, I need to be in position to do so next Spring.
      • I am okay with bouncing Russia in Norwegian Sea for a while; it’s fine if I first take out Sweden and then come after Norway from the south. All that matters is that Russia doesn’t actually get into Norwegian Sea or North Sea.
  • I don’t think this will be the right turn for it, but as soon as I can afford a spare fleet, I need to block France off at Mid-Atlantic Ocean. I don’t mind if I bounce France endlessly, but I would prefer to get into Mid-Atlantic Ocean and chill out there for a while.
    • I’m a little bit concerned about France’s ability to sneak into the draw with his lone unit, but not that much. The game isn’t heading towards a draw anytime soon, by the look of things. Probably I can go back and clear France out of the draw.
    • What I’m more concerned about is a turn where France gets away with moving into Mid-Atlantic Ocean (which at this point I consider to be behind my lines) and threatens to lunge for Brest or even to sneak over to Liverpool (that would take more than 1 year though, so that is less likely). France might be able to do this if Italy started giving up on attacking him, and, say, convoyed his army back to help defend against Austria (gambling that France won’t move to Spain).
    • This all feels very unlikely to me, to be sure. I was pretty happy to see Italy and France both moving their units towards each other; each is probably now afraid that the other will take their center, so France probably will not feel safe enough to move to Mid-Atlantic Ocean before I can move my fleet in. But the strategic situation is always changing – they might support-hold each other for a turn, then Italy moves away, etc. – and so I want to wall France off before something like that happens.
      • This is part of my general strategic philosophy of highly valuing the elimination of other players. Not only does it reduce the draw size (not as good as winning, but still progress if the game ends in a draw; I still feel good about playing to a tight draw), but a player who is close to eliminate will often make crazy, nihilistic, vindictive or desperate orders. I don’t like that – I like players whose actions I can predict (and therefore control).

Orders: I’ll show I want only to fight with Russia, and also guarantee my 2 builds

• The army at Kiel move to Ruhr.
  • This is the first move I came up with. It’s very simple – after giving my strategic situation great thought over my turns, and after blocking myself from getting one of my builds turn after turn, I have decided to highly prioritize getting to put down both my builds this year. As far as I can tell, the only way I can be guaranteed to get my 2 builds (that is, to cover all my supply centers from possible attacks and also have 2 of my home centers open with no possibility of being stopped) includes moving Kiel to Ruhr.
  • What I’ll do is see how things have shaped up after the turn and decide what to build in Kiel and Berlin. At this point, I think it is highly likely that I will build 2 fleets after the Autumn turn.
    • My diplomatic gamble of not building a fleet to keep Russia on my good said did not pay off (Russia attacked anyways), so I think it’s time to go to war with Russia. I would need to do this anyways to go for a solo win, but it’s also just really easy to choose who to fight when I’m being attacked by exactly 1 player.
    • At this point, I’m close to being saturated with armies. I already have an army on Great Britain that won’t be doing anything soon, and two armies over in France that are “guarding” against an Italian who is actually fighting off Austria. Once I launch my 2 new fleets, I can back-fill with the army that will be in Ruhr, and have a pretty good land force in the center of the map. If I gain control of Baltic Sea and then take even one supply center from Russia (Sweden or Norway) and build another army (I can’t see myself ever having more than 5 fleets, so it will be an army if I get a future build), I’ll probably have an impregnable defense.
• The fleet at North Sea move to Denmark.
  • I feel that I must do this to guard Denmark. Russia has moved Sweden to Denmark several times now, and it seems really risky to not guard Denmark this turn. Since I decided to move my army in Kiel over to Ruhr, then my North Sea fleet has to be the unit to guard Denmark.
  • What I’m hoping here is that Russia does bounce me at Denmark. I don’t really want to bring my fleet eastward into Denmark when I’m about to build 2 more fleets in that area.
  • I realize that by making this move, I am sort of contradicting my earlier thoughts about the importance of moving to Norwegian Sea. I still think it is important for me to move into Norwegian Sea soon, but for this turn I think guaranteeing my 2 builds is a higher priority (especially considering the relatively predictable/repetitive moves Russia has been making nearly all game, I don’t think he’ll move to Norwegian Sea this turn).
• The fleet at English Channel move to North Sea.
  • I’m hoping that this move fails due to my North Sea fleet getting bounced by Russia at Denmark. I don’t really want to leave English Channel because I would like my very next move to be to move this fleet into Mid-Atlantic Ocean. However, I am willing to risk it because the thought of Russia getting into North Sea (moving Norway to North Sea and doing something with Sweden other than moving to Denmark) is too horrible to consider (I’m not even going to discuss it; it makes me sick to think about it).
• The army at Liverpool move to Norway (via convoy).
  • This will be a failed convoy, so the order will revert to a hold order (which is really what I want to execute here).
    • I need to execute a hold order here so that I capture Liverpool. The only possible way England is not eliminated this turn is if I leave Liverpool. England has no other target with his fleet, so his only chance at all of staying alive is to lunge for Liverpool and hope for the best. It would be foolish for me to move Liverpool somewhere and try to backfill with my fleet, only to be bounced.
  • The reason I’m doing a failed convoy instead of a hold order is that I have an opportunity to send a message to the other players by having my army draw an arrow across the map, shooting over at Russia, thus communicating my intent to be at war with Russia (which will also be obvious from my moves).
    • Although it doesn’t add much in the way of communication, it helps make it clear to other players that I use failed convoys to communicate my intentions. Earlier this game I used a failed convoy to show I wanted to fight France and then attacked France hard. Here, I will have used a failed convoy while also attacking Russia. So even though I’m not communicating something that the players otherwise wouldn’t know (because I am attacking Russia this turn), I am showing my style to the other players. Maybe the failed convoy situation won’t come up again, but I don’t see how it hurts me here to use the failed convoy.
      • For example, maybe in a few years a stalemate line will form that includes France, and I’ll use failed convoy orders to show that I won’t vote draw unless France is eliminated, and then back up from the line so that the other players feel safe and understand what they need to do to get my draw vote.
• The fleet at Wales move to London.
  • A move to Irish Sea will probably fail, so the moves that make sense to me here are to move to London or to backfill English Channel. Since I think Russia is very likely to move to Denmark and/or North Sea, I think my move to North Sea from English Channel is likely to fail, so moving to English Channel here is probably a waste.
  • Moving to London is not a bad move. From London, next year I could:
    • Back-fill North Sea
    • Support a move into North Sea
    • Back-fill English Channel
  • Those all seem pretty good to me!
• The army at Silesia move to Prussia.
• The army at Munich move to Silesia.
• The army at Burgundy move to Munich.
  • Probably one or all of these moves will fail. If Russia moves to Prussia (which would be a pretty good move for him at this point, so maybe he is likely to do it), then the entire chain of orders will fail. That’s fine – it’s not important at all that these orders succeed.
    • It will be nice if I can get into Prussia (because from there I might be able to sneak into Livonia or convoy into Sweden). But what is actually important to me is that I BLOCK Russia from getting into Prussia, because I want to be able to move my Berlin fleet up into Baltic Sea next year (supported by a new fleet build in Kiel). There’s a chance that Russia will move to Baltic Sea this turn, so I want to minimize Russia’s chances to follow up with some kind of supported attack on Berlin.
  • These moves, even if they fail, demonstrate my clear intent to war with Russia, and not Italy or Austria. Italy in particular seemed concerned earlier that I was becoming too strong, and I do have some ability to take his centers (and, let’s be honest, I secretly want Italy‘s centers in Iberia), so showing Italy that I have no intent at all to come after him will probably reassure him. Italy doesn’t have too much choice (since Austria is attacking him head on), so I think a little reassurance from me could be enough for Italy to commit to a great defense against Austria (although Italy is already committing most of his forces actually).
    • Keep in mind that this turn, I could make a backstab attack against Italy by making a supported attack on Marseilles…and such an attack would probably work because Italy could be poked by France, Austria or both, and also has his move choices pretty limited due to France and Austria both being hostile. Nevertheless, I am not going to attack Italy, even though I think I could probably take Marseilles if I did. Why? It would be reckless! It would give away to the entire board that I am going for a solo win. I already have the most points by a big margin, so if I take one of Italy’s centers before even finishing off France, it’s apparent that I’m “in it to win it” instead of trying to whittle down the draw size. For as long as possible, I need to let the other players believe I am just trying to reduce the draw size, protect myself, etc. These players are sophisticated, experienced gunboaters and will all certainly try to make peace with each other if I blatantly start attacking in every direction purely to gain points (instead of focusing on eliminations). So even though I think I could gain a tactical victory in taking Marseilles, it would likely lead to a strategic defeat.
    • Thus, my decision NOT to attack Italy, even though I could, will, I think, give Italy and perhaps other players positive feelings that I am not trying for a solo win and am not a greedy player. It will make them think that this is a game about reducing the draw size, so each of them will try to attack each other to keep their score as high as possible to reduce the chances of being eliminated.
    • Finally, what I’m actually hoping for is that my move out of Burgundy into Munich fails – that’s right!^[2]What a fascinating turn; I had hoped for two of my moves to fail (English Channel to North Sea for tactical reasons, Burgundy to Munich for diplomatic reasons). I want my move to fail so that it looks like it was my intention to leave Burgundy even though I actually want to hold in Burgundy. If Russia moves to Prussia, Silesia, or Austria moves to Munich, the order to move into Munich will fail and I’ll keep my positions in Gascony and Burgundy. This would be the ideal outcome here – I express fairly sincere-seeming efforts to send my armies away from Italy to show him alliance, but actually I remain directly on his border poised to attack. But it won’t be Germany’s decision to keep the army there: if this works, it will appear as though Russia (and/or Austria) is to blame, the one who made my moves fail despite my “serious” effort to send my army away from Italy. 
• The army at Gascony support hold the army in Spain.
  • This is what completes my charade about alliance towards Italy. Hopefully this move and the other moves will make me seem non-suspicious.

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