Autumn 1909 – major alliance shifts?

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Developments: backstabs and more

Well, well, well! For the first time in a few years, I think there have suddenly been a lot of developments. Not only are there a few unexpected moves, but these moves have major political implications for the alliance structure.

• The attacks on England and France went according to plan and were what I expected – no news there.
• Russia made pretty much the same moves he’s been making for years and years now, but there’s one huge notable exception: he moved his fleet into Black Sea.
  • This is an excellent move in my opinion; due to Austria moving out of position, Russia finally had a turn where he could feel reasonably safe that Austria wouldn’t be able to dislodge Rumania, so he took his chance. There was nothing Turkey or anybody could possibly do to stop Russia’s fleet move. Furthermore, there’s almost nothing Turkey can do about this, because all of Turkey units are very far away from Russia and unable to easily reposition to attack Russia. Even if Turkey repositions to defend against Russia, Turkey does not have any way available to retaliate against Russia.
  • Going forward, Russia might start attacking Turkey. That’s probably a pretty good development for me (Germany). I was saying earlier that I was concerned that Russia would decide to never ever attack Turkey, which would likely put Turkey in the draw together with Russia. But now that Russia has shown a willingness to make a hostile move against Turkey, I have to rethink this idea. I wonder if Russia was thinking that when he made this move? (that I might break our alliance and attack him to play for a 3-way draw with Austria and Italy instead of a 4-way draw with Russia, Turkey and Italy).
  • Russia also doesn’t have to attack Turkey – he could continue to support Rumania from this new position, and Turkey probably just has to accept Russian control of Black Sea. Almost certainly, Turkey will never muster up 2 fleets capable of dislodging Russia’s fleet.
• But holy crap! At the same time, Italy has apparently decided to GIVE UP his attack on Turkey!
  • Leaving Ionian Sea open when Turkey has fleets nearby is usually a horrible move for Italy. Turkey getting into Ionian Sea can lead to the collapse of Italy’s defense. This seems very foolish to me.
  • I honestly do not know what to make of this. I can’t wrap my mind around why Italy would move his Ionian Sea fleet to Naples. To be clear: I understand that Italy must be trying to call off his attack on Turkey (I think that’s the wrong play for him, but I understand what his move means), what I don’t understand is why he moved the fleet to Naples. My guess here is that he…wanted to be able to protect Rome from Austria if Austria got into Trieste…? Maybe not. I’m really baffled. If he was afraid of Austria, he could have defended himself by moving his army back to Venice.
  • Looking at the big picture here, it seems like maybe Italy is afraid that I’m going to attempt a solo win, and wants to show the other players that he believes as much and they need to stop attacking him so he can build a defensive wall against me…?
• And then, at the same time, good gravy, Austria attacked Italy.
  • Austria can’t be dislodged from Venice, so if Austria holds, he’ll take Venice and probably get a build.
  • What was Austria thinking here I wonder? Was Austria nervous that Italy would come back into Venice and expected to bounce out Italy‘s army, or is Austria feeling really desperate for a build because he is afraid of being cut out of a draw down the road?
    • If you recall, Austria lunged for Munich a few years ago, also for no discernible diplomatic reason. I suspected that Austria would try to nab my center for many turns because I have an intuition (developed by my experience) of how Diplomacy players act when their expansion plans stall out. I saw that move as just a greedy or desperate attempt to get a build for himself.
    • Italy made the mistake that I did not – Italy left his home center vulnerable, he trusted Austria, and now he’s at Austria’s mercy about whether Austria will keep the center and make a build.
  • Austria could retreat and leave Italy alone. But because this Austrian player appears, to me, to be pretty greedy and short-sighted, I think he will keep Venice and build another unit. I bet he thinks he needs to be as strong as he possibly can to make it into the endgame.
  • Given my read of Austria as a greedy/desperate player, I think Austria will keep Venice in order to build another army. If this happens, Italy won’t get a build from taking Marseilles.

Strategic thoughts: this is bad for the draw size

• For whittling down the draw, this is all probably pretty bad. But for playing for a solo win…if someone gets angry enough about what is happening and seeks revenge, or my rivals move against each other and away from me, perhaps there’s some opportunity here. I have not made a single hostile move toward any player still in good shape (only England and France, who are nearly dead).^[1]Important diplomatic concepts are at work here. I think other experienced Diplomacy players would agree with me that a common scenario for getting a solo win for yourself is that you played nicely with all the players who made it into the endgame, and meanwhile those same players are angry at and … Continue reading
• These recent moves have probably thrown the once-very-stable-and-predictable alliance structure into chaos. I don’t know how the other players will react, or what will happen. I need be cautious and see how the next turn goes.^[2]After the match, a friend of mine suggested that this situation would be the perfect time to get into position for a solo win, but I had a very different approach. To understand, read the last paragraph of this entry. 

Orders: no change of strategy for me yet

• The army at Edinburgh move to Liverpool.
• The fleet at North Sea move to London.
• The fleet at English Channel support move to London from North Sea.
  • With this combination of moves, the only possible way I can be stopped from taking one of England’s centers is if France moves Mid-Atlantic Ocean to English Channel and England moves Wales to Liverpool. I can’t imagine France doing that with Italy attacking him so hard, so I think these moves are likely to succeed against England one way or another.
• The fleet at Heligoland Bight move to North Sea.
  • If my attack works, I want to backfill North Sea.
• The army at Kiel move to Denmark.
  • I do trust Russia, and have left Denmark open for many turns, but there’s no reason to leave Denmark empty right now when there’s nothing else for this army to do. I can be completely assured of not losing a center to a Russian backstab. Russia will have to tolerate my making this move; after all, Russia wouldn’t move his fleet out of Sweden to give me space and safety.
  • Plus, if I ever decided I need to betray Russia and begin attacking him, I’ll be glad to have a unit sitting tight in Denmark, ready to strike.
  • But the main thing here is that I have nothing better to do with this army so I might as well guard my center. It’s not an attack on Russia, and Russia shouldn’t interpret it as such. It will make him more nervous than when I’ve left Denmark empty, but it’s not an attack.
• The army at Munich move to Burgundy.
• The army at Gascony move to Burgundy.
  • I am unwilling to leave Munich while Austria borders it. It seems like a really, really bad move for Austria to lunge for Munich with Russia right up in his face with all his forces, but I simply refuse to put it past Austria. I would be a fool if I left Munich unguarded.
  • So with that in mind, I figured, hey, I might as well bounce Gascony in Burgundy. I don’t have anything to do with Gascony either (I could support-hold Italy, potentially helping him or as a gesture of goodwill…but Italy is behaving erratically what with leaving Ionian Sea and I don’t want to communicate to the other players that I feel good about what Italy is up to). I don’t think Italy will move into Burgundy (that would be foolish for all kinds of reasons), but I want to show my willingness to guard against Italy and everyone else. I want to continue to show that I play with a tight defensive posture and don’t leave myself open to backstabbing or attempts to get behind my lines. In other words, I have shown this game that I only take chances when I really need to and with a loyal ally (like when I left Denmark because I trusted Russia), but I DON’T take chances when I don’t have to and against erratic players. I need to establish this year after year…so that if I ever I make a super-risky turn that leaves important positions unguarded, nobody will see it coming; they will have been deterred from such attempts, and my sudden, risky moves will have a better chance to succeed.
• The army at Brest move to Portugal (via convoy).
  • This will be a failed convoy order. A failed convoy will result in the unit staying put (it is treated as a hold order). So knowing that the order will fail, what I’m really doing here is functionally a hold order with Brest.
  • The reason I’m doing a failed convoy instead of a hold order is that I want to communicate “death to France!!” to the rest of the board (that I want France eliminated and the draw size reduced). The elimination of France should be something all the others players desire, and perhaps the other players will give me and/or Italy the space necessary to finish France off.
    • Also, if I show hostility only to France and England, I will communicate that I am trying to play for a draw (and not a solo win). “Hey guys, here I am playing for a small draw size, I’m playing slowly and methodically see, no threats here from Germany…” If this works, then the other players might panic and attack each other as they consider each other the biggest threat to their survival (because only the strongest 3-4 players will end up in the draw if the game proceeds this way. Someone will become the odd-man-out, and each player must avoid this happening to him. When a player starts thinking this way, that player will probably imagine that attacking Germany is the easiest way to guarantee that they’re the one eliminated, since they’ll never be able to take any of my well-defended centers).

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