Autumn 1907 – I’m safe, time to press the attack

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Developments: Austria gave up menacing me

• Gosh-darn it, France cut my support from English Channel. I really thought he wouldn’t make that move. I guess it was a pretty good move for him and it did work out.
• Russia continues to be my ally. He supported me like I needed him to. I’m really happy about that.
• FINALLY Austria left Silesia. I guess Austria decided he had better do that or I would be forced to send my armies into the center and to flush him out. I wasted my turn covering Berlin and Munich, but I had to be safe.
• Thank goodness Italy is sending more units against France. Italy is way more likely, with my help, to grind down France (who is at 4) first than Turkey (who is at 3) because Russia is completely defending Turkey from the north, but there’s no real cooperation between England and France yet.

Strategic thoughts: I don’t see how I/A can eliminate Turkey

• Italy and Austria are starting to grind Turkey out of his home centers. They just need to take one supply center from him and his defensive system will collapse. Turkey is really defensible with 3 centers, but not with just 2. Even with how they’ve surrounded Turkey, it will STILL be damn difficult for Italy and Austria to coordinate – it may take many more turns to get a point off of Turkey.

Orders: I trust Russia; time to all-out attack England and France 

• The army at Denmark move to Yorkshire (via convoy).
• The fleet at North Sea convoy an army to Yorkshire from Denmark.
  • There’s seems way too slim a chance that I would take London this turn. Now both England AND France can cut support (or England could support-hold London with ease). Probably England will support-hold London with Wales, or move Wales to English Channel supported by London.
  • To be honest, England might be smart enough to block this move. He probably will rule out that I would convoy into London or Edinburgh, since he’s guarded them perfectly. He could even bounce his two fleets together to try to guard all 3 positions against a convoy.
    • What I’m hoping here is that England fears I will move English Channel to London supported by North Sea, so he support-holds London with Wales or moves Edinburgh to North Sea. It would be pretty reasonable for me to make my attack that way, and I considered it myself, but decided that the convoy was slightly craftier and perhaps a little more likely to work.
  • If this move succeeds, I won’t be able to cover Denmark. However, Russia has played nice with me all game, and did a support-hold on North Sea last turn when I really needed it. Plus, if my convoy fails for any reason, I’ve covered Denmark. Russia would probably not want to risk moving to Denmark only for it to fail and disrupt our alliance that has been going on since 1901.
  • I will not be disappointed if this move fails, since that means I’ll still cover Denmark and can try to convoy to Yorkshire again on a spring turn (which is safer anyways because the army will be away for less time before I get a build).
• The fleet at English Channel move to Brest.
  • A German fleet in English Channel is a really powerful attacking position, but I don’t expect it to last past this turn. England can nearly guarantee that he retakes the channel (by poking North Sea and supporting Wales in with London; I could only stop that by poking London myself, which I deem too risky since I think I can count on Russia to support-hold with Norway).
  • Therefore, I want to at least try something interesting with this fleet before I get pushed out. There’s a chance England (plus maybe France) does not make a supported attack into the channel this turn, so I might keep it even if I don’t try to support-hold it).
  • I already ruled out attacking London supported by North Sea, since I said that was just too unlikely to work, so I figured I may as well just lunge for Brest. Probably, this won’t work. It’s extremely easy for France to cover Brest, since he has 3 nearby units. But I feel like I might as well take a chance, since I opted against supporting my position.
    • I could retreat to Belgium to cover against a desperate French attack, but I’d rather use my Burgundy army because, if that move works and my English Channel fleet isn’t dislodged, I can threaten to convoy with English Channel next Spring. Plus in general, a fleet that ends up in Belgium can’t do me much good (because a fleet in Belgium can’t interact with Burgundy)
  • If the fleet is dislodged, I can “retreat” forward into Irish Sea, potentially leading to swift death for England if my army convoy works.
  • There’s always a chance France doesn’t cover Brest, and anyways my attack should keep him “honest” on future turns.
• The army at Burgundy move to Belgium.
  • Gotta cover Belgium. I’m way too afraid of how badly it would ruin my game if France got away with sneaking into Belgium.  Hopefully I’ll get my armies into a better position for an all-out attack on France in the next year or two, now that Austria is leaving me alone.
• The army at Munich move to Burgundy.
  • This is to backfill. Probably my move into Belgium will succeed. I also highly doubt that France will move to Burgundy this turn instead of covering his centers, but even if France did I can’t imagine it being a supported move, as that would permit me to take Paris or even theoretically retreat into Paris if I did a hold order.
• The army at Berlin move to Kiel.
  • I must bring my army into the west to fight England and France, but I’d rather move to Kiel than Munich because
    • First, it’s possible that my move out of Munich will fail, and it would suck to waste so many orders.
    • Second, if my convoy into England works, I want to put an army back into Denmark next turn to guard it, since Russia refuses to leave Sweden.

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