Autumn 1901 – Should I Ally Russia?

To go back to the previous entry, click here.

Developments: only a single unit did not move as I predicted

• I correctly predicted each power’s opening moves, except for Italy.
  • England: 100% (3/3)
  • France: 100% (3/3)
  • Russia: 100% (4/4)
  • Turkey: 100% (3/3)
  • Austria: 100% (3/3)
  • Italy: 66% (2/3)
• I am excited to see this Italian opening! In my prediction section for the previous entry, I said I rarely see this opening, but consider it the opening Italy must make when Italy fully intends to ally Austria from the start.^[1]After watching how this game played out, I have re-evaluated what I consider to be the best gunboat opening for Italy. Until this game, I was pretty sure that the best opening was the one I predicted here – support-holding with Venice – but I now think moving to Piedmont is the stronger … Continue reading Because Italy moved out of Venice and Austria left Trieste, neither of those two can attack each other on this move – they have both benefited from showing a little trust in each other, as they have now mutually moved away from their border and can commit all their units to attacking other players. If their alliance holds, they will emerge as two of the stronger powers in mid-game. I think Italy–Austria is a powerful alliance because each power has a lot of room to expand in one direction (Italy west, Austria east) and they don’t have to confront each other until much later in the game, if at all. Based on this opening, I have every reason to think Italy–Austria will form and play out for a while.
  • Italy–Austria is a really good development for me, because this should keep France and Russia much weaker. In the end game, if Italy–Austria holds until the end, then they will likely play to a 3-way draw with either Germany (me) or England, or perhaps a 4-way draw with both of us. So I need to monitor their alliance and also keep a close eye on England.

Strategic thoughts: I should probably ally Russia

• • I don’t like that neither England nor France opened to English Channel. Furthermore, because Italy antagonized France by moving to Piedmont on the opening move, there’s a chance England will gamble that France will ally him instead of attack him, and thus go all-out in the north. As England, this is very tempting because you can grow much faster in the north by attacking Germany than by attacking France, and the chances of a war between France and Italy are much higher than normal due to the Piedmont move, so I have to be concerned that England will not ally me. Consequently, I have to seriously consider supporting Russia into Sweden.
    • Because Italy and Austria appear to be cooperating, Turkey and Russia will likely ally. If I do support Russia into Sweden, then Russia will almost certainly get TWO builds. What I would be hoping there is that Russia, fearful of Austria and pleased to have my support, hoping to form Russia–Turkey (Juggernaut) without antagonizing me, will build a second northern fleet in St. Petersburg (North Coast) to show that he is trying to ally both me (Germany) and Turkey, and is hostile to England (since that fleet will not merely go after Norway, it will be able to continue onward). Because with two builds Russia can still build a defensive army in the south, there’s a chance that Russia will get 1 fleet and 1 army. If I help Russia take Sweden and Russia builds 2 armies (for fighting in the south, or for taking Norway but hedging a bet defensively), I would be disappointed because any army in the north cannot go on to menace England. In my experience, if Russia gets an army into Norway that army eventually gets rolled back by France in the endgame or goes on to attack Germany for want of another target.
    • Furthermore, I am less fearful of a two-build Russian opening than I normally would be, because Austria will be empowered by alliance with Italy; in other words, I don’t fear that Austria will be destroyed in a blowout if I give Russia this extra power.
  • The most complicated guess I have to make this turn is about what will happen in Belgium.
    • The Worst possible scenario: 
      • England convoys his army in Norway using North Sea and moves Norwegian Sea into Barents Sea. This is the follow-up move England must make to commit to allying with France. This sets up for totally shutting down Russia in the North by taking or at least locking down St. Petersburg in 1902. Personally, I think England should have opened with the army to Edinburgh (since he didn’t open to English Channel) so as to reserve the option of convoying with Norwegian Sea. Now he’s locked in to convoying with North Sea – what a shame.
      • I move my Ruhr army to Munich to cover my home center.
      • France moves Burgundy into Belgium and walks right in. Meanwhile, France moves Marseilles to Spain and, for whatever reason, is not attacked by Italy.
      • If France walks into Belgium while taking Portugal and Spain for a 3-build opening, I will probably not be able to invade France for years, if ever. France taking Belgium in the first year makes it almost impossible for Germany to make any attack on France, and even if I did attack France, probably another power would make gains well before I would.
        • To be honest, when England doesn’t help me take Belgium and allows France to get it, I often give up hope of allying England because England comes across as foolish and worthless to me (I think it is foolish to be so unhelpful to Germany and so trusting of France, the natural enemy of England ). Even if we did start working together on later turns, we would never, together, be strong enough to actually defeat France once France has become so powerful so early^[2]In other words, if I, Germany, believe that I no longer have the power to play for France‘s elimination, I might as well play for England‘s elimination and hope for the best. (that is, if France has 6 units, England and Germany cannot realistically position enough units to invade France with just the two of them; when France has Belgium in 1901, sometimes France can successfully war against both England and Germany despite their alliance. It’s miserable, and that’s why England and Germany should ally).

Orders:

I’m going to try to ally Russia

• The fleet at Denmark support move to Sweden from Gulf of Bothnia. Russia can always be counted on to attempt to move into Sweden in Autumn 1901 since there’s a chance Germany will permit Russia into Sweden.
  • I’m doing the “support move” rather than just hold with Denmark to try to make it clear that I would like to ally Russia.
  • I believe the situation calls for supporting Russia. Because Italy has menaced France, England may gamble that France will not attack him in 1902 and therefore lunge all the way to the north with the hope of shutting down St. Petersburg as fast as possible, and then in later years keep his options open as to whether to just come down and crush me (Germany) from the north for the most possible growth, or perhaps ally me against France at a later time when it is more convenient to England – thus likely ensuring that I don’t accomplish anything the first few years of the game. No thanks!
  • Even if England wants to ally me and eventually does so, I wouldn’t want him to emerge so dominant in the north before we’ve even had a chance to damage France. If England got strong quickly, even if he intended to ally me, he might just opportunistically backstab me if France continues to appear like a non-threat – it is far quicker for England to profit from attacking Germany than attacking France (if not threatened by either of them). Or in other words, I want to punish England for not moving into English Channel, since France is by far a bigger threat than Russia (to either of us) at the beginning, so if he wants to fight only Russia, I’ll give him something to fight.
  • Furthermore, I am not afraid that giving Russia a second build will lead to Austria getting blown away because Italy and Austria appear likely to ally.
  • I think if I do this, there’s a good chance Russia will use the extra build to get a fleet in St. Petersburg (North Coast) to show alliance with me and Turkey.
  • Finally, I have seen the following ploy many times and done it myself as Germany: I could follow up my support to Russia by building a fleet in Kiel, feigning intent to attack England, but actually move into Baltic Sea and take Sweden for myself in 1902. If Russia builds a fleet in St. Petersburg (north coast) my attack cannot be stopped by Russia and likely won’t be stopped by England either. This can be especially strong after Russia and England have locked horns and France is just playing defense.
• The army at Kiel move to Holland. Not much to say – I am sure this move will succeed. England won’t waste his chance to convoy his army off his island just to shut me out of Holland.^[3]Leaving the army on the island in 1901 is a disaster; England has to fight with one less unit basically.
• The army at Ruhr move to Belgium. I have decided to take a chance, leave Munich open, and lunge for Belgium.
  • I think France is less likely than usual to move Burgundy to Munich, because Italy’s unit in Piedmont appears highly likely to move to Marseilles. A conservative play by France could be to move Mid-Atlantic Ocean to Portugal, Marseilles to Spain, and Burgundy to Marseilles to cover that center – that would secure 2 builds for France without antagonizing either England or Germany, but leave options open with his builds.
    • I think another reason France is unlikely to move to Munich is that France wouldn’t want to risk antagonizing me so early when Italy came after him on the very first move. If France moved into Munich in 1901, it would probably be war between us for many years onward because I would be forced to build pure armies to drive him out (strategically, Germany will eventually be locked into fighting a certain way because of Germany’s build choices – this is, by the way, a reason for every power not to antagonize Germany until after 1901 builds).
    • It is also possible that France might go all-out attempting to ally England by moving Mid-Atlantic Ocean to Spain, hold with Marseilles, and perhaps move Burgundy to Belgium or Munich. That seems less likely to be because it doesn’t guarantee 2 builds for France, and it is some trouble to go back and pick up Portugal after 1901.
    • Even if France takes Munich, then that means France did not move to Belgium. Therefore, I would likely take Belgium since I don’t think England would block me, in which case I would get 2 army builds and push France back out of Munich and do my best to get Russia, England, and/or Italy as my allies.
  • I think England is unlikely to convoy his army to Belgium. Because both Germany (me) and France have armies bordering Belgium, there’s a good chance that one or both of us will move our army there, which would bounce his convoy. Getting that army off the island is a pretty high priority for England in 1901, and his opening was a very conservative opening so I expect him not to take risks with the follow-up move either.
  • Finally, you can’t do well at Diplomacy without taking risks sometimes. If you just sit around and guard your home centers all game, eventually, slowly but surely, you will be ground down in the mid game by players who got builds while you did not. If I go back to Munich only to surrender Belgium to France or England (either of whom could be hostile), I would probably just get attacked later anyways by whichever power did get into Belgium.

Predictions: further predictable/boring orders

• I predict that England will move Norwegian Sea to Barents Sea, and convoy Yorkshire into Norway with North Sea. I think England will do this because it is a conservative follow-up to his conservative opening – neither France nor Germany are antagonized.
• I predict that France will move Mid-Atlantic Ocean to Portugal, Marseilles to Spain, and Burgundy to Marseilles. It seems highly likely that Piedmont will move to Marseilles, so such a moveset would guarantee a 2-build opening by France, which is what France seems to be going for since his Spring 1901 move was the one that makes 2 or 3 builds as likely as possible.
• I predict that Russia will move Gulf of Bothnia to Sweden, support Ukraine into Rumania with Sevastopol, and move Warsaw to Galicia. I think Russia will be scared that Austria and Italy are allied and such a moveset maximizes his chances of builds while setting up for a possible alliance with Turkey.
• I predict that Turkey will move Ankara to Constantinople, Constantinople to Smyrna, and do something silly with Bulgaria (there’s no move Bulgaria can make that is likely to work, but Turkey could move it anyways to send a message or perhaps do a support order). Usually, Turkey will relentlessly move Ankara into Black Sea until finally taking it, and there’s always some chance that Bulgaria could take Greece (which will result in 2 builds if Constantinople backfills to Bulgaria), but with Austria and Italy out of each other’s way, there’s pretty much zero chance of getting Greece, and Russia is sure to support himself into Rumania, so the potential reward of getting both armies forward doesn’t really exist, and the threat of Italy–Austria is very real to him, so I predict Turkey will try to ally Russia by not moving into Black Sea and hope Russia just doesn’t move there, and instead try to get his fleet out into Aegean before it’s too late. I could be wrong about this, but this is what I predict.^[4]In retrospect, this was a silly prediction. Even when defending against Italy–Austria, Turkey usually keeps a fleet in Black Sea as long as possible to make uninterrupted support-hold orders. ^[5]My thinking at the time was that Turkey would follow up by building a fleet in Ankara. Then in Spring 1902, Turkey would move Smyrna to Armenia and rotate the fleets around into Constantinople and Smyrna. Such moves make a successful Lepanto impossible and assures Italy  that any gains from the … Continue reading
• I predict that Austria will support Albania into Greece with Serbia and move Vienna to Galicia. I don’t even see any other sensible moves.
• I predict that Italy will move Piedmont to Marseilles and convoy Apulia into Tunis with Ionian Sea. This gives him a chance at 2 builds, cements possible alliance with Austria, and leaves open the possibility of a Lepanto attack on Turkey  (an early-game strategy where Italy convoys an army to Syria) while allied to Austria.

To continue to the next entry, click here.