Winter 1912 (Builds) – awww yeah, 2 builds

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Developments: Warsaw makes 1 out of 4 critical supply centers I need for a solo win

I out-guessed Russia and took Warsaw. If I’m able to keep control of Warsaw for the rest of the game, that makes 1 down of the 4 border centers (I’ve also called them “stretch goals”) that I need in order to solo win. I’m eyeing five centers: Warsaw and Moscow in the east, Marseilles, Portugal and Spain in the west. I need four of those five to get a solo win.^[1]My strategic thoughts on the German solo-win plan are explained thoroughly in my guide, available here.

Getting to 16 is not so bad, but reaching 17 and then 18 is difficult for Germany.

I now control 14 supply centers, so I only need 4 more to reach 18 and win. As I have previously said, my eventual control of St. Petersburg is inevitable because it cannot be defended from the south indefinitely. That will make 15, so to win I will need 3 more. According to my strategic map, Venice, Vienna and Sevastopol are also possibilities in general, but in this particular game those seem more difficult for me to take. I’ll keep those supply centers in mind if the tactical situation develops differently.

• France and Italy attacked each other – YES! This is awesome, this is exactly the kind of bitter, desperate, uncooperative play I need to see from the other players if I’m going to get a solo win.
  • As it turns out, I could have gotten into Mid-Atlantic Ocean. Oh well; I really did think it would not be open. My plan to break in by force will still work though, because there are not enough fleets in position to stop me. I wonder if the fact that I didn’t move into Mid-Atlantic Ocean will leave the other players confused, thinking that I am not planning for a solo win?
• I thank my lucky stars that Italy did not get into Burgundy. He didn’t even attack me. He seems to perhaps finally be relaxing, or else is more scared of France and Austria ruining his game than he is of my attacking him.
• Austria is STILL making his useless attack against Italy. This is a very poor play in my opinion, but it is awesome for me. Even if Austria stops bouncing Italy, Italy may end up with is fleet in Apulia (thinking he needed to bounce Austria), putting his fleets horribly out of position to defend the Iberian centers.
• Turkey doesn’t fully trust Russia. I bet Turkey is concerned that Russia will try to survive and sneak into the draw by getting into Turkey’s home centers, which are distant from me (Germany).

Strategic thoughts: mulling over Russia’s disbands

• I don’t really care what Turkey builds.
• The tricky part here is for me to guess what Russia is going to disband. Previously, I have said that Russia will eventually disband his northern fleet because he has no hope of surviving in the north (his best chance of getting to the draw is for me to reach 16 or 17 centers with his units south of mine being necessary to maintain a stalemate line). Now that Russia lost TWO units in one turn and is down to just 4 centers, I think that is more true than ever. Russia already disbanded one of his northern fleets earlier, and I think he will do so again here. I also think Russia will disband his Black Sea fleet, because that unit cannot help him defend against my attack and because Turkey has no fleets bordering Black Sea. It would make complete sense if Russia disbanded both his fleets and tried to curl into a ball around Moscow with his armies; that’s what I would do.

Orders: 2 army builds

• Build an army at Berlin.
  • This is obvious to me. I need armies in the center and especially in the east to hold Munich and Warsaw (once my solo win attempt is inevitably challenged by a final alliance of all remaining players). I also need more armies to be able to push through to Moscow and keep it (since Moscow can only be taken and defended with armies).
• Build an army at Kiel.
  • This is less obvious, because maybe another fleet could be useful.
    • Any fleet I build in late-game will not have enough time to make it over to Mid-Atlantic Ocean (the main place that matters). If I don’t build a fleet now, I’ll probably have to fight it out with the 3 fleets I have over there.
    • If Russia doesn’t disband his northern fleet, his fleet will continue to annoy me because I’ll have no way of disbanding it with just one fleet.
    • So if Russia keeps his northern fleet, I could use another fleet build to come after him. If he doesn’t, I could send it west.
  • However, I think an army is more useful:
    • I need to start sending more armies into France’s former territory because I’m going to have to plow through Italy’s two armies, and I cannot do that with the skeleton crew of 2 armies that I have over there right now for defense. I can barely defend against Italy with 2, but with armies I could push him out and have a shot at Marseilles. If I play cleverly, I might even force a disband of one of his armies, since he’s got nowhere to retreat Gascony right now!
    • If Russia disbands his northern fleet, I can probably take that Baltic fleet to the west. It would get there just as fast as a fleet build in Kiel, since Baltic Sea and Kiel are both 2 moves away from North Sea.
    • If Austria starts attacking me, I’m going to sorely regret not having another army around for defense. A fleet cannot possibly help me defend at this point.

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