Winter 1908 (Builds) – I’m on top, but is a solo win possible?

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Developments / Strategic thoughts: there’s a lot to talk about

• • Haha! Everything is working out pretty much as I had hoped, given the precautions I had taken. In retrospect, I guess I wish I had been brave enough to leave either Berlin or Munich unguarded so I could get the other build in, but I don’t think it’s a big deal.
  • Austria blinked. That’s the phrase that comes to my mind. Russia and Austria have been locked in a staring contest, and Austria blinked first. Austria grew paranoid of his ally Italy and retreated into Bohemia and Trieste to hedge against a possible attack. This is unfortunate for Austria:
    • First, Russia might be able to get the upper hand somehow. Austria now does not have enough units to support-hold Galicia against the strongest Russian attacks. Russia could also try to reposition and sneak into Silesia maybe. It’s not much, but Russia’s potential for attacks on Austria have been improved.
    • Second, this could become a self-fulfilling prophecy of war between Austria and Italy. If Austria isn’t going to put up a fight against Russia, what good is he doing for Italy? If Russia breaks through Austria’s defense, then Italy may feel like he’s better off just attacking Austria too, to both finish off a damaged power and because Italy would likely get some builds out of it and come into the endgame as one of the top 3 powers.
      • This is why I didn’t make moves to antagonize Russia on previous turns, even though I was a little concerned about a possible backstab. If I had moved in a way hostile to Russia, that could have triggered Russia to attack me even though Russia otherwise did not intend to. So what I’m saying is that Austria might be doing that, here, with Italy.
      • To put it another way, if I were Italy, I would be thinking “what is the point of my strategy of never attacking you (Austria) for 8 years, helping you in every way I can, if you still guard against me instead of fighting Russia, who you have been at war with for all 8 years? In return for my loyalty, you give me…paranoia? With friends like this, who needs enemies?” As a result, Italy may start thinking, as I have on previous turns, that the end-game needs to be Germany–Italy–Russia.
  • I sure love the Russian player. What a great ally Russia has been for me. Very loyal. At this point, unless I have a really good chance of somehow getting a solo win by backstabbing Russia, I can’t see myself attacking Russia. I should play with Russia to the end if possible, and hopefully whittle down the draw to just 3 players (Italy being the third, our mutual natural ally).
    • Also, I predict that I will never gain a good opportunity to backstab Russia. One of the things about playing out a German–Russian alliance is that it is difficult for Germany to go back and eliminate Russia once Russia gains strength in the south. If later this game Russia gets builds off of Austria and/or Turkey, there will be little ability for me to fight a war against Russia to any success. In order to solo win, Germany usually needs at least Warsaw and usually Moscow too. Those would be far too easy for Russia to defend against me if Russia has a bunch of armies, so there would be no point in even attacking; I wouldn’t get a solo win even if I got Norway, Sweden and St. Petersburg, and I would definitely never eliminate Russia if I had attempted a solo win (since everyone would gang up on me if I attempted a solo win).
• At this point, there appears to be no threat to my dominance. I am firmly allied to the second-strongest power (Russia) and not at all threatened by the other powers (France and England are half-dead, Turkey is weak and far away, Italy and Austria aren’t in position to fight me and aren’t trying). This game is mine to lose. If I play well and avoid spooking the other players or opening myself up to a devastating backstab, then the game should end in a small draw (3 or 4 players), which is a solid achievement in a high level game (I have won, or seen solo wins, very rarely in high-level games). If I play well and see some kind of opportunity for a solo win, I’ll have to consider it, but I doubt that will occur in such a high-level game.

The German Solo Win Plan

Let me illustrate the challenge of getting a solo win, even with my current position, as Germany. Below is a map I created to help players understand Germany’s solo-win game plan strategy. This map is somewhat modified from the one used by webDiplomacy but it should still be easy to understand:

Getting to 16 is not so hard, but reaching 17 and then 18 is difficult for Germany.

From comparing this map to my current position, you can see that every supply center that I have, or reasonably could take in the next few turns, is “green” – that means I control supply center which are relatively easy to conquer as Germany. The challenge for a German player is how to get yellow, orange or red supply centers, because, frankly, 18 supply centers is a really difficult number to achieve.^[1]And boy-oh-boy did this map turn out to be accurate and applicable to this match. When I attempted my solo win, I conquered all the green centers with ease and got the yellow one (Moscow) next after that. I struggled – STRUGGLED to get any centers other than the green and yellow ones. I feel … Continue reading If for whatever reason I already controlled several stretch-goal centers like Moscow or Spain and simply had to mop up some green centers in order to win, I would say that I have a real chance at a solo win, because those green centers are easy to conquer, even when the other players know the attack is coming. Those stretch-goal centers are basically impossible to take once the other players understand you are attempting a solo win, so you are wasting your time if you try to solo win without a realistic ability to get those centers.^[2]I have created similar maps for the other great powers. I use them to teach new players about the practical limitations of each power. For example, many new players imagine that Germany could haul off and invade Austria at the start, but experienced players know this is a foolish action for … Continue reading^[3]Also, please bear in mind that this is a gunboat strategy map. Way crazier stuff can happen in press games.

Orders: fleet build

• Build a fleet at Kiel.
  • It’s a very simple choice this turn – build a fleet or an army at Kiel. When I chose my moves last turn, I prioritized leaving Kiel open for possible builds so that I could, if possible, build a fleet without spooking Russia. I didn’t really explain why, so I want to elaborate.
  • First, let’s talk about things at the most general level. At this point, I do think I need a 3rd fleet. As Germany, I have to think very long-term about my fleet builds, because late-game fleet builds will probably be useless. What do I mean? Well, Kiel and Berlin, the ports, are really far away from the action. In the endgame, especially in a game where Germany is strong, Mid-Atlantic Ocean is often THE critical sea space. Almost everything else can be fought over purely with armies or mostly with armies (including Scandinavia).  Mid-Atlantic Ocean is entirely fought over by fleets, and is four moves away from Kiel and five moves away from Berlin. 2+ years is an absurdly long time for a new unit to be put to use, so probably whatever situation Germany needed the fleet for will have been resolved by the fleets that were already in position at the critical time (like locking Italy out of the north, or attempt to get Iberia for myself instead of Italy).
    • To put this in perspective, St. Petersburg is 4 moves away from Mid-Atlantic Ocean; in other words, Russia‘s northern port is even closer to Mid-Atlantic Ocean than Berlin! Russia can cross the map from the northeast to the southwest at the same speed as Germany.
  • So what I’m saying here is that I need to prioritize, if possible, some fleet builds NOW so that I don’t regret it later. I only have 2 fleets right now, and I probably want to come into the endgame with at least 4 (I am the strongest power now, so I can anticipate having additional builds – I still have 1 more build I can’t use, plus I will likely take 2 more from England). I will need properly-positioned fleets in the endgame because:
    • Italy could try to come around into the north (only likely if Italy attempts a solo win). I’ve taken Brest and Paris, and likely will be able to finish off England before Italy can finish off France, so if Italy isn’t playing for a solo win and neither am I, then we have zero reason to fight each other after England and France are eliminated. BUT, if my forces in the west are really weak (e.g., I built almost no fleets) then Italy may be tempted to go for a solo win because I’ll have killed France and England in such a way as to allow Italy to come across the stalemate line, into the north, and threaten my conquests, and there will be nothing I can do about it because I’ll lose centers before I can build fleets and get them in position to defend the centers I conquered.
    • If I get my fleets far enough west, such that France is still around when I get near Mid-Atlantic Ocean and England is eliminated, I could plausibly move myself into Mid-Atlantic Ocean, appearing to help finish off France, but actually positioning myself for a solo win. Russia is far too strong this game for a solo win to be a reasonable goal for me, but I can at least keep that hope alive if I can get into Mid-Atlantic Ocean – if I can get Portugal, Spain and Marseilles somehow, then I might be able to win without Moscow. Yeah…like I said, small chance here.
    • I need to have more fleets circulating about the North so that Russia doesn’t get funny ideas. Similar to what I said about Italy, if Russia starts attacking me in the North because my fleet presence is weak, there might not be anything I can do to block Russia’s attacks, so I start losing supply centers, Russia builds more fleets, I get no builds, and I get put into a death spiral where Russia eventually takes over most of the north just on fleet power. It’s more realistic than you might think – any player who has, alone, more than 50% of the fleets in the north has a very strong ability to snowball into conquering nearly all the northern centers. On the rare games where I have solo won as Russia (maybe once or twice?), it was because I achieved a critical mass of fleets in the north (like 5) and no other player had even close to as many.
  • Furthermore, I already have enough armies for now. I have my two armies in Munich and Berlin guarding against possible encroachments. I could also bounce Munich off of Paris or Picardy in Burgundy if I want. The only space where there’s any vulnerability in my defensive line is directly to the north – Denmark (the supply center) and Baltic Sea (the key sea space). I can guard Denmark with an army, but why? A fleet can do almost everything an army can do in that situation, but a fleet can do much more, especially if I ever fight Russia. Specifically, a fleet could move into Heligoland Bight, and from there guard Denmark, North Sea, or even double convoy some other unit from Kiel through North Sea onto Great Britain. And most importantly, a fleet can move into or fight for Baltic Sea. In a war between Germany and Russia, Baltic Sea is absolutely essential to Germany’s defense AND offense, as it borders 4 supply centers, 2 of which are Germany’s home centers. It’s easy to defend against a land invasion by Russia as long as nobody else is attacking Germany from the west, but really difficult to defend against any Russian attack, including a mostly land attack from the east, if Russia has uncontested control of Baltic Sea.
  • Now, as for the diplomatic aspect of my build choice: for any power, the choice of what type of units you build (fleet or army) sends clear messages to the other players about your intentions and capabilities, since fleets and armies are only capable of fighting over certain spaces. I believe this is especially true of Germany, because German fleet builds have to be made with this long-term planning in mind that I discussed. I believe that building a fleet this turn, especially in Kiel, is a good way for me to signal to the other players my intention to finish off England.
  • I think building an army would send a confusing message to the other players, and they might wonder if my intention is to send armies through the center of the map to fight Austria or something. I don’t want that, and I especially don’t want Austria thinking I would attack him; basically, I want Austria to fight off Russia (and possibly Italy) for as long as possible – if Austria is the last power eliminated before a 3-way draw, that greatly reduces the chances that Italy or Russia would attempt a solo win, and somewhat increases my own opportunity for a solo win (Austria may attempt to throw the game to me if facing elimination from Italy and/or Russia, which could be just the craziness needed for me to get the solo win; it’s rare, but that’s the sort of thing that has to happen in a high-level game).

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