Autumn 1906 – my plan is working!

To go back to the previous entry, click here.

Developments: I took North Sea, messed up France, and confirmed that Russia understands me

• Huzzah! My gambit in supporting myself into North Sea paid off! Russia understood what I was thinking and retreated to Norwegian Sea, and now we have a pretty wide front of fleets in the north, and I finally have some kind of progression path available to me (Germany) that doesn’t involve attacking Russia or waiting for Italy to do something.
• Good God in heaven, Italy is a terrible player as far as I can tell. He moved exactly one unit. The rest were hold orders. What the heck?? If he had moved Piedmont into Marseilles, he would have BLOWN UP the French army!^[1]”Blowing up” a unit is jargon that means forcing the owner of the unit to disband their unit by dislodging that unit in such a way that retreat is impossible. But instead my Burgundy order did nothing at all. And his fleet should have moved to Ionian Sea, or SOMETHING!
  • What a disappointment. Italy nearly missed his orders in 1905, but the Mods intervened and gave extra time because the game was of such high caliber. What did Italy do THIS time? Accidentally order only one unit to move and then forget? Try to put in his order 5 seconds before the timer ran out and only got one order actually saved?^[2]Yoyoyozo, who played Italy, said this after the game: “As for the turn where I only moved one unit: simple negligence. I had 2 different browser tabs open to the game for some reason and didn’t realize it. I saved my actual orders (which included Piedmont to Marseilles) and then after a … Continue reading
  • I don’t know if I can fully express how disappointed and frustrated I am that Italy missed nearly all of his orders. I am almost certain that, if Italy had acted properly, Italy would have moved Piedmont into Marseilles, thus blowing up a French army and leaving France wide open to further attacks. I (Germany) really needed a break here; my game has stalled against France for a while.

Strategic thoughts: I’m in a risky position; I made successful attacks but a build seems unlikely

• I don’t see a realistic way I can get a build this turn. Now that Italy permitted France to reposition his fleet in Spain without any consequences, France can support-hold Marseilles with Spain and support-hold Gascony with Paris, so there’s little chance of France not support-holding Paris. I could try supporting Italy into Marseilles again, but that doesn’t get me (Germany) the build I want.
• The chance of my taking Edinburgh is pretty slim I suppose. Probably, either England or Russia or both will move there. What I would really need to make it work is for Russia to use his fleet to support a convoy of Denmark to Edinburgh – that would be guaranteed to succeed I think – but I feel like that’s asking a lot of Russia when he was the one trying to move into Edinburgh earlier…would he really guess that’s what I’m going to do?
  • I could consider making the convoy anyways, just to establish that I think I (Germany) should be the one to invade England (even if I think Russia won’t support the move at first and England and/or Russia will bounce me out). There’s nothing Russia can do to stop me, and if we did bounce each other in Edinburgh that’s not really a problem for me (Germany) as I don’t see how Russia needs another build right now; Russia can defend himself for quite a while if Italy continues to play like a corpse, and any additional unit would just be a threat to me rather than help me against England I think, since Russia won’t leave Sweden as things are.
• One possibility is that I could support Belgium into English Channel with North Sea – that is really likely to succeed. Doing that would cause any convoy order France entered to fail. England might retake London (but he’ll probably cover Edinburgh), but if England doesn’t, then that French army will be stranded and surrounded in London, a horrible nuisance to England that may open up Great Britain to me on a future turn.
• By God I really hope Austria doesn’t do something desperate and try to attack me. He hasn’t done it yet.
  • This isn’t really a strategic thought, but I am almost as anxious about Austria and as I am irritated with Italy. Austria staying in Silesia keeps him bordering TWO of my home centers, which I really do feel I must guard, which is holding me (Germany) back from going around and eliminating anyone. Maybe that’s what Austria wants to accomplish (if so, nice job…), but regardless of Austria‘s intention, I am frustrated by his army’s position.
• I am way, way angry with Italy. His failure to execute more than 1 order last turn has left me in a lurch. I have half of my armies inside the French area of the map, but nothing to show for it. That’s a big risk for me, to move so many units towards France and away from my home centers, and we would be for sure knocking France down a point this turn if Italy hadn’t screwed up. Now I’m really nervous, because France can support-hold Marseilles and make a supported attack into Burgundy that is guaranteed to work if he pokes Picardy, and will still work if I don’t hold Burgundy with Picardy. Oof.
• So basically, here’s what I think my strategic choice is this turn:
  • Gamble that Austria will continue to harass Warsaw and not go for Munich or Berlin, and thus I could all-out attack France and England.
  • Go with paranoia, guard Munich and Berlin, and greatly slow down any attack on France for years to come.
  • Hedge my bets and try to keep up my attack on France while guarding whichever home center I think Austria is likeliest to lunge for.

Orders: this turn is maddening

First, I settled on these two moves rather quickly:

• The fleet at Belgium move to English Channel.
• The fleet at North Sea support move to English Channel from Belgium.
  • Alright, here’s what I’m thinking: no matter what, I think I should move Belgium into English Channel supported by North Sea. I don’t see Russia poking North Sea or England support-holding English Channel, so it’s very likely to work. If I have English Channel next turn, France or England cannot, alone, push me out.
  • With that set up, I can convoy an army bordering English Channel into London supported by North Sea (which probably England won’t be able to poke or risk losing Edinburgh to Russia, and Russia won’t poke because he’s my ally) or convoy an army bordering North Sea into London supported by English Channel (if I think English Channel won’t be poked, which is a lot more likely but I would rather convoy in my Denmark army if possible and leave forces in position to mop up France instead of guarding against Russia).
  • Next year, I can use the Spring move to support Russia into Edinburgh, and the Autumn move to convoy into London, or vice versa.

The rest of these moves…I drove myself crazy thinking about what I should do.

• The army at Picardy move to Brest.
  • This is very unlikely to work, as it is easy for France to cover Brest, but he left it open once before so maybe there’s a chance. Importantly, if there is a “battle” in Brest (a.k.a. “bounce”), then France won’t be able to retreat English Channel there. He’ll have to retreat to Mid-Atlantic Ocean (which is great for me (Germany) as there’s almost nothing France can do to me from there, and he becomes a bigger menace to Italy potentially) or Irish Sea (where he’ll probably harass England by moving to Liverpool, or at least threaten to do so, which will shake up England’s ability to stop me from getting into London).
  • If Picardy actually gets into Brest that’ll be awesome, but I doubt it. If Picardy is forced to retreat by France blocking Brest and also making a supported move into Burgundy, I’ll retreat to Belgium, which isn’t so bad.
• The army at Burgundy support move to Marseilles from Piedmont.
  • I don’t know what else worthwhile I could do with Burgundy if I’m going to move Picardy to Brest; I can’t make a supported attack on Paris and I’m already covering Munich with Kiel.
  • It’s entirely possible that France will make a supported move into Burgundy, in which case I’ll probably retreat to Belgium. That won’t be so bad.
  • The main reason I’m afraid to use Burgundy to cover Munich is that I’m likely to actually MOVE into Munich and thus give up Burgundy to a supported move by France, which France might make to try to poke my army to prevent me from supporting Italy into Marseilles. My game would be totally SCREWED if France got into Burgundy while I also didn’t have enough armies to cover Belgium, Ruhr and Munich. It seems so likely for France to accomplish that (the scenario where I’m screwed), so even though I really do want to cover Berlin and Munich because I am paranoid about Austria  (I’ve played this game a long time, and my intuition keeps telling me to be afraid of Austria ), I’d rather take a risk that Austria doesn’t try to screw me over (since Austria has had many chances now and has never taken them) vs. the very high chance that France will (we’re directly at war, of course he would).
• The army at Kiel move to Munich.
  • First of all, this covers Munich in my 50/50 game if Austria decides to attack me. Recently I’ve been covering Berlin, so maybe if he did decide to lunge for one of my centers, it might be Munich. I don’t know, I’m kind of just rationalizing here.^[3]Holy crap, in retrospect this turned out to be one of the most important decisions I made. If I had not guarded Munich this turn, Austria would have taken it and probably so badly interfered with my game that I might have ended up getting eliminated. But my desire to guard my center, my paranoia, … Continue reading
  • What I really need to accomplish this move is to be in position in case I get pushed out of Burgundy by France – I will need an army in Belgium and Munich to bounce each other in Ruhr if I am to defend myself while also convoying that Picardy army into London next year.
• The army at Denmark move to Brest (via convoy).
  • For now, I am keeping my army in Denmark. This order will obviously fail (it uses a French fleet), so what I’m really doing is trying to communicate (a failed order becomes a hold order).
    • I want to hold in Denmark because Russia has a fleet in Sweden. If I leave Denmark. Russia could walk all over me  if he moved to Baltic Sea. But with my army in Denmark I could retaliate against an encroachment.
    • Furthermore, it’s better to have the army in Denmark instead of Kiel, even if I assume Russia wouldn’t try anything – Denmark can be convoyed with North Sea, but Kiel can’t. Kiel can’t really do anything actually; it’s too far from any of my front lines.
  • What will happen is that failed move order will appear on the map (even the normal, smaller map), drawing a huge red arrow from Denmark to Brest, thus communicating LOUDLY to all the players that I am very serious about attacking France, and also trying to communicate to Russia that my army is not meant to be hostile to him.
    • It might even make France wonder whether I will double-convoy my Denmark army to Brest next turn, supported by Picardy, or something wild like that.
  • In case you didn’t know how it works on webDiplomacy, if you click the enlarge button, all failed orders appear on the map. I rarely check that map myself because I just read the written order log.  But on the normal map, only failed move orders appear. You can use failed convoys to communicate in the way I’m describing because you can get arrows to appear behind enemy lines because it is theoretically possible to make that convoy (even though it’s completely absurd to use enemy fleets). Normally you can’t just order units to make moves that are impossible.

Predictions: I’m still anxious about Austria 

• Yessiree bob, I am not covering Berlin despite my extreme levels of paranoia that Austria is going to try something against me (Germany)  just by virtue of it being possible. But I think I have talked myself into not doing it this turn, mostly because Austria has never ever attacked me even once this game, despite having the same positioning, so I don’t see why he would start doing that now. If anything, he and Italy made a little bit of progress against Russia.
  • Austria has been very trusting of Italy and it paid off. If he’s trusting, that might also mean he’s not so keen on backstabbing himself. People tend to see in others what is true about themselves (and yes that means I am pretty keen on backstabbing myself – watch out for that if you play with me).
  • Maybe like I said before, Austria might be afraid that attacking me (Germany) would power up Russia, his main enemy.
  • Furthermore, Austria may think such a move will fail because I have been covering my centers for most of the game.
  • Again, the real reason I feel I can’t cover all my centers is that if I do and I move into the centers, which seems likely, I’ll have nothing left to fight France, and war with France  is my main thing right now; I’ll be set back horribly if I give up that fight just because I’m anxious about an Austrian move that he’s never attempted.
  • It’s still, of course, entirely possible that I will get stabbed in the back by Austria, and I’ll probably be wounded and screwed the rest of the game, possibly eliminated. But I have to take a risk on this sooner or later or I’ll never progress in the West, and maybe end up cut out in the long run due to stagnation anyways. So even if Austria does go for Berlin, I guess won’t feel like a fool – but I will feel like Austria is a jerk for making a greedy, disruptive backstab while I was trying my best to whittle down the draw size.
• I am really hoping that Russia and England bounce in Edinburgh so that Russia and I can capture Edinburgh and London in the same year (next year). I don’t expect any supply centers to change hands.

To continue to the next entry, click here.