Spring 1906 – Turkey took a hit

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Developments: Not much other than Turkey losing Bulgaria

• Well, I’m astonished, but somehow Austria and Italy converged their minds and were able to take Bulgaria from Turkey. This is a huge development, because they now have enough units to grind down Turkey’s defenses even though Italy is guarding against France.
  • I freaking said that Turkey needed to support-hold Bulgaria with everything he had. He didn’t do it and now pays the price. He really really wanted to get his fleet out of Black Sea, which he should have done at the beginning of the game. In my opinion, that move (very early on) of going into Black Sea will be the reason Turkey gets eliminated from this game.
• Everything else proceeded more or less as I thought – very repetitive, predictable moves from everyone essentially (except that Italy/Austria move).

Strategic thoughts: I bet I can play central triple to a 3-way draw

• Eventually, Italy/Austria can overcome Russia if they take out Turkey. At least, they can take out Russia in the south – they can’t never eliminate Russia from Norway, Sweden, or other distant northern centers. That means if Italy and Austria continue to cooperate and also Austria doesn’t attack me for some reason, likely Turkey, England and France will eventually be knocked out. Then likely either Russia or Germany (me) will get ground down by the other three unless the game ends in a 4-way draw. Most likely, in the end, it would be Russia who gets eliminated. Austria is a possible end-game elimination, but unlikely as it makes a solo win too possible for Italy since Italy will likely have several French centers at that point. Italy and Austria have cooperated very well this game, and neither has a real chance of solo winning if the other is strong, so if their alliance continues into the mid-game then they are playing for a draw – probably a 3-way draw.
  • Based on this, I need to come into the end game with more than just 6 points – I need to be much stronger so that I can threaten to throw the game, or look too difficult to overcome, so that I don’t get whittled down in the end. Russia is the most likely of all 4 players to get eliminated, so if I am strong and capable of taking Russia out in the north (with enough fleets), I suspect Austria and Italy would let me finish off Russia.

Orders: time for an aggressive and risky turn!!

I’m tired of waiting around and also of not getting any build for a long time. Strategically, if I don’t start making progress somewhere, I’ll end up getting attacked in the long run anyways (either to get eliminated in the end game, or because I’ll be perceived as a worthless ally for not ever going anywhere to get players eliminated). Therefore, I want to set up for possible breakthroughs against France/England, getting a possible build this Autumn, and even if that doesn’t work, demonstrate at least a willingness to seriously attack France and not just sit around and twiddle my thumbs so that we end up with a giant draw (or the other players decide to team up with France and eliminate me instead).

• The fleet at Denmark move to North Sea.
• The fleet at Belgium support move to North Sea from Denmark.
  • Alright, I’m ready to take a risk here I guess. What I’m hoping for with this plan is that I will get into North Sea without angering Russia. I have been cooperating with Russia, and hopefully Russia will understand that I just want to have my fleet in North Sea so that I can get it into position to actually fight France. Specifically, I want Russia to understand so that he will retreat to Norwegian Sea (which continues to pressure England and does not border any of my centers).
  • France has exactly 1 fleet in the north, and I very badly need to push him out of English Channel, and I probably can’t do this unless I first have North Sea. If I can do that, and leave his army stranded on Great Britain, his forces will be split in two and I’ll be in position to either make strong attacks on France or try to take some of the English home centers for myself. Furthermore, my fleets can do a lot more for me right up against France and England than sitting close by guarding against Russia, since I am not at war with Russia (Russia is my ally) and anyways even if I want to attack Russia, my positioning right now is horrible even if I made the harshest possible attack.
    • I am hoping Russia will take the hint and retreat to Norwegian Sea – doing so would put three of our fleets in position to attack France and England. Right now we have 4 fleets, but 2 of them are just guarding against each other in Denmark and Sweden. That’s a waste of resources and we probably can’t progress against either England or France while we’re doing that, since England still has 2 units. But if we are lined up in North Sea and Norwegian Sea, we threaten 2 of the English home centers and I (Germany) threaten English Channel.
• The army at Kiel move to Denmark.
• The army at Berlin move to Kiel.
  • The disaster scenario here will be that Russia thinks I’m making some kind of crazy backstab against him and retreats to Holland, Heligoland Bight, or Skagerrak/Norway (in order of most bad to least bad, I guess). Hence these ancillary moves which allow me to force Russia out of Holland or hold Denmark if he doesn’t take my hint. Plus these moves discourage  Russia from backstabbing in response to my move, because I can in fact hold my line against him. What I mean is this: If Russia does a hostile retreat (like to Holland), then everyone knows I will for sure try to use my units to kick him out, and thus I am very likely not to guard Berlin or Munich against Austria (you should almost always defend against the guaranteed attack and hope for the best against a possible attack), so the net result would be that I lose a supply center not to Russia but to Austria, and Austria is Russia’s worst enemy this game.^[1]Yes, I really anticipated that Russia‘s foresight would be so great that Russia might realize that retreating towards me would likely result in Austria getting another build. High-level gunboat Diplomacy games depend on the players’ mutual understanding of the implications of moves … Continue reading
  • Furthermore, at this point, Austria has not attacked me ever and just keeps attacking Russia, so I trust Austria more. There are other reasons I feel a bit better about Austria:
    • In the end-game where we whittle down players, Austria almost certainly will prefer to eliminate Russia over Germany (I say this based on general experience and based on how this game in particular has developed).
    • Austria and Italy made a breakthrough against Turkey, so I now don’t feel so strongly that Austria is going to lunge for one of my supply centers as a desperation move. I think Austria will play it slow and steady and grind down Turkey while holding Russia back.  That seems to be how Austria wants to play this game; he has been playing that way for years.
    • I also think I’ve made my point clear that I do guard my rear, so Austria may not waste time going for it thinking that I will keep moving an army backwards to guard.
  • Another thought: if France pokes Belgium again, most of my moveset will fail. That will not be a big deal to me; it will show my intent and still leaves me in a decent position for the Autumn turn.
• The army at Burgundy support move to Marseilles from Piedmont.
  • Italy has been consistently executing a move order from Piedmont to Marseilles (3 turns in a row, and little has changed there), so there’s a chance my support order will work. France might cut it, or support-hold Marseilles with Gascony, but if I had done this support order last turn it would have worked, so I think there’s still a chance it will work this time. It doesn’t directly benefit me to get Italy into Marseilles, but at this point I don’t think a solo win is in the cards and I just need to play for eliminations, and I surely want France eliminated. France being weakened will really help me in general, and probably help me a TON if I need to fight Russia down the road.
  • Furthermore, a strong Italy will keep Austria honest. I don’t think Austria will come after me if Italy starts progressing against both France and Turkey (because doing so might put Italy on the path to a solo win).
  • I could choose to support-hold Picardy, but I think it will be fine if I don’t.
    • There is a chance that France will make a supported move into Picardy, and if so then Picardy would be forced to disband. But if France did that (say by convoying London to Picardy supported by Paris, or attacking Picardy with Paris supported by English Channel), France would only destroy Picardy if France ALSO moved Gascony to Brest to cut off any possibility of retreat. Not only does that seem unlikely, but if France did this then my support of Italy into Marseilles will work anyways (assuming Italy attacks Marseilles), likely leaving no chance for France to take Marseilles back on the Autumn turn.
    • It wouldn’t be so bad to rebuild my army, and it would be worth it to set France back 1 build. Probably Italy would break through into Iberia quickly.
• The army at Picardy move to Brest.
  • For a long time while thinking about this turn, I thought I should support-hold Burgundy with Picardy, but then I realized that a supported attack on Burgundy is really unlikely; Marseilles is likely to be poked by Italy and France is really unlikely to move that unit, and leaving Gascony or Paris would only weaken France‘s defensive line. So I thought – hey you know, I’m taking risks this turn, being aggressive, maybe I’ll lunge for Brest and see how it goes.
  • If I do get into Brest, France can push me out – but it makes it extremely difficult for France to defend Paris at the same time if I still have Burgundy (because I can support myself backwards into Paris). This attack plan is especially likely to work if France loses control of Marseilles to Italy this turn.

Predictions: it’s time to stop making these in a separate section

• I’m choosing my moves based on what I think the other players are most likely to do, and thinking more about general strategic stuff, and some of my predictions are contained in my earlier comments.
• I will say that I wonder whether England will cover Edinburgh again, or try to take London back. I’m just sort of curious as to what England values more.

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