Winter 1903 (Builds) – back to boring

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Developments: not much

• England: 40% (10/25)
  • Hrmph. Well, I guessed wrong here.

Strategic thoughts: what is England getting at?

• I wonder if England is feeling vengeful and/or desperate and will try to throw the game to France while pushing further into Russia. I’ve done that myself at least once.
• Russia will now have to make a choice between building in Moscow and St. Petersburg. If England had disbanded, Russia probably would have been more likely to build in Moscow.

Orders: rebuild the disband as an army

• Build an army at Kiel.
  • I see no reason to change my plan on rebuilding with an army.
  • I realized I should probably build at Kiel instead of Munich because I need to be able to support-hold Denmark against an English attack. Desperate players often attempt sadistic, crazy attacks on whoever they feel deserves their vengeance, or just as often they’ll make such attacks on whoever looks the weakest in a desperate attempt to stay alive. Because England does not have a good ability to defend himself from France right now, if I left him some opportunity to ruin my life, he might take it.
    • You might be thinking “that’s insane, why would England make suicidal attacks against Germany and leave all his home centers to France?” but I’m telling you I’ve seen crap like that dozens of times. The English home centers are not defensible now that he’s lost control of a sea zone and has no armies on the island. The English home centers are nowhere close to any major stalemate areas. It looks pretty bad for England I think.
    • There’s no predictability to a desperado’s attacks. Maybe he’ll decide to go all-in against France as revenge for rejecting his repeated gestures of friendship. Maybe he’ll go all-out against me (Germany) for steadily attacking him. Maybe he’ll attempt to cram his units in St. Petersburg or Moscow to stay alive as long as possible. Who knows?
    • Furthermore, throwing the game to France is a possibility because England might force the other players to set up defensive stalemate lines instead of eliminating him. I’ve done that myself.
    • Even if England disbands his army in Finland and can’t poke Sweden, there’s no guarantee that Russia will support-hold Denmark with Sweden. I really don’t want to take any chances here.

Predictions: no change to my prediction

• I still predict that England disbands his army.
• I predict that Russia will build in Moscow, even with the English menace.

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