Autumn 1903 (Retreats) – …and I am immediately set back…

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Developments: Russia and France are my allies, but I am nervous

• England: 42% (10/24)
  • • Well, as I said I was not able to predict England’s moves. It really worked out for him that France and I bounced each other out of London (but this was entirely out of England’s control); he would be completely screwed if either of us had taken it and he went down to just 2 units. With 3, he can hang in there a while.
    • If England had used Skagerrak to support-hold Norway, he would not have lost a unit this turn. Instead, England made the choice to poke Denmark with Skagerrak so as to increase the chances that he would take North Sea. it seems to me like England is having like a nervous breakdown or something because I don’t know why he used 3 of his 4 moves just to take back North Sea (which isn’t a center and he will probably lose control of again soon anyways), meanwhile giving up Norway and a build. If North Sea was so important to his strategy, why did he risk it in the Spring turn only to use every possible resource to take it back in the Autumn (when it is less valuable)? I am really having a hard time entering into England’s mind right now.
    • Let me note that Norway executed a (failed) support-hold order on Sweden – England, after attacking Russia non-stop up until this point, tried to make a silly gesture of alliance/goodwill towards Russia as Russia finally pushed him back into the sea. I wonder if Russia will just ignore it?
  • France: 58% (15/26)
    • Technically I only guessed 1 French move correctly (Marseilles support-hold Burgundy), but I got the spirit of the French moves correct (he used Mid-Atlantic to guard against Italy, and he attacked London). I am pleasantly surprised that France did a support-hold with Burgundy, but I don’t really care that much. I am also surprised France made the aggressive move of convoying his army into London, and as a result I am sure glad I bounced him out because he would probably end up taking over all of England if he got away with that.
  • Russia: 76% (25/33)
    • I pretty much read these moves; the only deviation was that Russia held with Warsaw and move Moscow to Ukraine. Those seem like good moves – better than what I predicted Russia would do. Russia’s gameplay seems very strong and he continues to be allied to me the way I want (he fought off England and he is holding the line against Austria).
    • Russia did take Norway, which is a fortuity for Russia since England could have defended it if England had not wasted his Skagerrak move. Now Russia gets a build and creeps into first place. Oh boy. I will make my official prediction later but I am thinking Russia will build an army in Moscow to shore up his position against Austria, since he no longer faces any serious threat to Scandinavia (England is weak and on the defensive, and I (Germany) don’t have proper positioning to launch a powerful attack on Sweden).
  • Turkey: 65% (15/23)
    • Well, Turkey made a wise choice in moving his Eastern Mediterranean Sea fleet into Ionian (which failed of course). He CORRECTLY read Italy as attempting to fake him out and juke his way into Eastern Mediterranean Sea to again attempt his Lepanto attack. Kudos to Turkey here. Actually, this move is much wiser than what I had analyzed before and I might have predicted this move for Turkey if I thought it out. Specifically, even if Italy HAD moved to Aegean Sea, Italy would NOT have been able to convoy against Turkey for a turn because Turkey would have bounced his back-filling fleet, forcing Italy to spend the next turn supporting himself back into Ionian in order to set up the convoy.
• Austria: 50% (14/28)
  • Austria pretty much did what I thought. No real surprises here.
• Italy: 57% (13/23)
  • What a freakin’ chump… so I called all 4 of Italy’s moves – another attempt to do his Lepanto attack (less silly this time because at least it wasn’t completely telegraphed), but Turkey saw this coming and blocked it yet again. Italy’s play-style here reflects what I commonly say about gunboat diplomacy players: they often make the same moves over and over again because whatever they were thinking that made them want to make the move still exists turn after turn. Here, the Italian player is obsessed with making a Lepanto attack – specifically, getting into Eastern Med, even though Austria has supported him into Aegean many times (as he did again this turn, so Italy’s move was going to work if he had gone there).
  • Meanwhile, Italy’s fake-out antagonized France; France decided to hedge against Italy coming after him by moving to Western Mediterranean Sea (Italy could, indeed, have done so). I wonder if this will bring Italy’s predictable strategy to an end (because he will have to defend Tunis until France leaves)?

Strategic thoughts: what a setback…I may disband my fleet and rebuild as an army

• • Well, now I need to be freaking careful about getting pinched between France and Russia. Russia climbing ahead of me to be the strongest power, at 7 points, is dangerous. Furthermore, Russia and Turkey are allied, and France is playing a decent game. A really common 3-way draw scenario is “Juggernaut” (Russia and Turkey) playing to a 3-way draw against France.
    • Even though as Russia, I myself would be very reluctant to backstab Germany early, especially when France looks poised to take out England within a few years, the Russian player here might not read the board the same way, or might not have the same paranoia about the power of France that I do.
  • I have major choice: retreat my fleet (to Yorkshire or Heligoland Bight) or disband my fleet and immediately rebuilt it (as an army in Munich or Kiel, or as a fleet in Kiel).
    • Retreat plan: Right now, I am not being attacked by either Russia or France. Russia has been my ally since the beginning and has never done anything to make my suspicious. France returned my gesture and did a support-hold order on Belgium and tried to convoy into France instead of attacking me. My fear of those players is based on general strategic knowledge that those powers often make poor allies in the endgame for Germany (especially if there is no solo-win threat). So if I decided to trust them, and continue attacking England, I would retreat my fleet and try to get back into North Sea in Spring 1904, hoping to take Edinburgh or London in time to build a 4th army before I get overstretched.
      • HOWEVER, it is pretty difficult for me to see a path to taking any of the English home centers without some cooperation or charity from France or Russia.
        • If I retreat to Heligoland Bight, then I would just try to take North Sea again the next turn. If I again use Holland to hold Belgium, then I could only attack with the support of 1 other unit, so if England support-holds North Sea, I won’t take it.
        • If I retreat to Yorkshire, I have to consider the possibility that England would harass the crap out of me by moving North Sea into Yorkshire supported by Edinburgh. If he did that while France (again) moved for London, my fleet would blow up. Furthermore, if I were to move either of my other two fleets into North Sea, I would have to give up some defense somewhere (either leaving Denmark undefended or Belgium without full support-holds).
      • Austria is still a menace, and without a full host of armies to defend my home centers, I continue to run the risk that Austria tries for Munich or Berlin. I still think that is a big risk because I would definitely never get them back if that happened and probably get ground down as the game moved towards some small draw.
      • England is horribly out of position to defend himself against France because he naively put every single unit of his as far away from France as possible on the apparent diplomatic theory that France would decide to ally him instead of attack him (I think that’s foolish because, as we see here in the biggest game of all time, England incentivized France to attack him with that play because now France has a very real possibility of invading England, collapsing England‘s piss-poor defenses, and moving forward with the standard French solo-win plan). I am anxious that if I attack England together with France, all that will happen is France gets all of England’s home centers and I get nothing, or if I do make a lurch for England’s home centers, Russia will use the opportunity to backstab me.
• Rebuild plan: the only rebuild move I am seriously considering is disbanding the fleet to rebuild an army in Munich.
  • • I took this big risk by building 3 out of 6 units as fleets, and this has not resulted in additional builds for me. My gamble to get London didn’t work, and now I am nervously surrounded by Russia, France and Austria, so maybe it is time to play more conservatively.
    • With my army in Munich, France has to fear that I will start attacking Burgundy. That concern should prevent him from convoying an army in against England, which should greatly slow down any attack against England he might make (or if France doesn’t defend Burgundy, then I would probably just break through into Burgundy).
    • If I give up attacking England, England may leave me alone and use all his forces to defend himself.
    • Russia’s second northern fleet, now in Norway, is in position to actually do something: Russia could support attacks on North Sea or go into North Sea himself. Earlier in the game, when Russia’s fleet was bottled up at St. Petersburg North Coast and France had zero fleet presence in the North, it felt tactically necessary to me to get as many fleets as possible to stand some chance of damaging England. Now, even if I blow up my fleet, there are 5 non-English fleets in the North – that should be enough to whittle England down.
    • Russia will be deterred from backstabbing me if I am in a position to defend myself. If I reach so far beyond my lines to attack England while actually very much surrounded by 3 other powers, I am inviting Russia to attack me because, well, attacking me will appear likely to work (other powers would likely dogpile and I wouldn’t be able to punish Russia).

Orders: Yeah, I’m going to disband

• The fleet at North Sea disband.
  • On balance, I have convinced myself that this is the better move. Normally, I am the type of player who is willing to take risks, sometimes huge risks, because you can’t do well, and certainly can’t win, without taking big risks. However, I think the risk involved with continued naval adventures if very high in return for a low chance of reward. No thanks. I’ll start playing Germany in the traditional way now with mostly armies.
  • I also will get to feel like Austria won’t be tempted to attack me (since I’ll have units in Munich and Berlin), so I can get over worrying about that.
  • If I am going to continue to ally Russia into the endgame, then I need to be serious about attacking France (sorry France); France cannot ever become strong, as far as I am concerned.^[1]As far as I know, I am one of the most vocal advocates of the opinion that France is – by far – the strongest gunboat power. I honestly think that if France gets 2 more points, France could appear so impregnable that the other powers will decide France can never be eliminated and will look elsewhere for eliminations (specifically….me). I need Russia to fear France, but also to feel like I am the power holding France at bay – that will also deter Russia from backstabbing me, I think.
  • Furthermore, if I go down a fleet, that will I think encourage Russia to be more adventurous with his own fleets, especially if I try to help him.
  • I don’t think Russia and I will be at big disadvantage without only 4 fleets in the north between us. England and France will, at the end of 1903, only have 4 fleets between them as well – and also France just attacked England so they probably will not be able to work together.

Predictions: England disbands too?

England could retreat his army to Finland or else simply disband it. You might say to yourself “what’s the difference between disbanding now, or disbanding a unit during the build phase? Isn’t it advantageous to wait and decide what to disband?” and often you’d be right about that, but in this case England has something to gain. Probably, England will feel he has no choice but to disband his army, as right now he is being attacked by all 3 neighboring powers and France is threatening to convoy into his home centers. That army is now pushed far away from any of his other units, and he has no possibility of convoying it back into England. Therefore, if he is going to disband it anyways, maybe he will disband the unit right now – why? To make Russia feel safe! Maybe Russia will give up attacking him and use his new build to build an army in Moscow to defend against Austria! Because England played in such a servile way vis-a-vis France, and because of his silly support-hold order to Sweden with Norway (just as it got dislodged), I predict that England will disband the army now during the retreat phase, rather than disband a unit later. Maybe I’m wrong about this but I feel like England has been playing like a submissive dog that rolls over to expose its belly.

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