Autumn 1903 – I progress against England!

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Developments: getting into North Sea is a minor success

• England: 50% (10/20)
  • I’m shocked—shocked—that England did not support-hold North Sea. This is a huge blunder by England, in my opinion. His loss of control of the North Sea due to a Spring move is an extremely bad development for him (and of course, a very good development for me, Germany). Typically, England only risks the loss of North Sea on an Autumn turn so that there is a buffer for England to protect his home centers (the Spring move for the next year). We are now in the Autumn turn, which means London will be captured if another player moves into it.
  • England is now at the mercy of other players to regain control of London , which is arguably the most important of all England home centers (as it borders the critical North Sea and English Channel). If I move into London, the only way this can be stopped is if France bounces me out with English Channel. This now creates a guessing-game where France has to decide whether to try to bounce me out of London, or – if I don’t move into London – end up capturing the home center of his presumptive ally, which could collapse England’s defenses and perhaps antagonize him.
  • Assuming that Russia makes a supported attack on Norway with Sweden and St. Petersburg, I can guarantee the success of that attack by poking Norwegian Sea with North Sea and Skagerrak with Denmark. 
  • Jesus, England didn’t even bounce Russia out of Sweden (an extremely obvious and telegraphed intention) and instead wasted his army move attempting to hit St. Petersburg without any support. Is this a misorder? Wow.
• France: 67% (14/21)
  • Finally! France does something that makes complete sense to me (I guessed all of France’s moves correctly). Unfortunately, these moves are not so good for me. France has put himself in a powerful position: he can use his armies and English Channel fleet to war against me together with England while being in a strong position to backstab the (now weak) England as soon as I am damaged. Ho boy. France is the strongest power in gunboat, I always say, and we may be in for a demonstration.
    • France could also just blindside England. England has behaved in such a servile fashion in his attempts to ally France, sending 100% of his forces away from France, where now France is in a position to attack England without any consequences. France could attack England and then fight me (Germany) for control of the English home centers, and if that happens Russia might consider backstabbing me, which would be horrible (for me). I hope if it comes to this, Russia fears the power of France too much to change his allegiance so opportunistically like that.
    • Sidenote: this is why I strongly believe England must attack France first. Although a war in the north is potentially much more profitable, it always leaves France too much ability to just attack England in the rear, which is an enormous temptation for France because it sets up for a solo win. When I play as England , I usually do not push too much in the North until I am sure France is disabled somehow.
• Russia: 78% (21/27)
  • I guessed everything right except how Russia used Rumania to support (Russia supported Bulgaria into Serbia instead of Warsaw into Galicia). The support order ended up irrelevant anyways because Austria poked Rumania with Budapest. Russia continues to be a sensible player by my measure, and I’m glad his move to Sweden worked (it wasn’t bounced by Norway) so that he now seriously threatens to take Norway and deprive England of a point (and therefore a unit). Furthermore, because of his early fleet build, Russia will be able to continue westward on future turns to perhaps go after Edinburgh or help me invade England.
• Turkey: 68% (13/19)
  • Hm, I didn’t correctly guess what Turkey would do other than his fleet move to block the Lepanto. His moves weren’t bad though.
    • To be honest, what I really want as Germany is a long stalemate between Turkey and Austria, and then in the late-game for Turkey to start to overcome Austria. If Turkey gets strong too early, Turkey is, in my opinion, a strong solo threat. But if Austria comes into the late-game strong, Austria will block any German solo win and potentially come after Munich and/or Berlin.
• Austria: 49% (11/23)
  • Jeez, my ability to read Austria has been very poor for the last couple of turns. I mentioned the possibility of Austria attempting a gamble and said he wouldn’t, but I was wrong here. This sucks for me; I really don’t like that Austria has moved into Silesia. He could do something really, really greedy and annoying like lunging for Berlin or harassing Munich, and even if he doesn’t, he threatens to do this for as long as he stays in Silesia and there’s really nothing I can do about it. FRICK!! This is the worst development for me this turn I think? Maybe France’s moves are the worst, but Austria’s moves are a bad surprise, something like that.
• Italy: 47% (9/19)
  • Well, thank goodness Italy didn’t waste his entire moveset again attempting his silly Lepanto attack. This is a much, much better position for Italy to be in. With his army returned to the mainland, he is protected against Austria. Furthermore, he could now be setting up for a SURPRISE Lepanto (as I described earlier in the journal, which I consider the much better strategy) or maybe changing over to attack France (which would be an incredible boon to me).

Strategic thoughts: there’s a lot to think about this turn

• I think there’s a decent chance that Italy will attack France in 1904. What I’m really hoping for here is that Italy moves his Tyrrhenian fleet into Gulf of Lyons in preparation for a supported attack on Marseilles in 1904 (or perhaps a move or convoy into Spain). If Italy sets up for that by moving into Gulf of Lyons this turn, I will definitely help him out with his attack by moving Munich to Burgundy to cut France’s support hold. Germany cannot invade France alone, but if France is backdoored by Italy, France will have no choice but to retreat his fleets and give up on Belgium. I would love for Italy to break France’s back, as this would allow me to eliminate England with no fear of incidentally powering up France.
  • Italy is, in my opinion, Germany’s best natural ally. I would love to work with Italy against France and freely dispense help to him in taking French centers.
• France now needs to seriously fear an attack by Italy. If Italy attacks France while France is positioned so far in the north, France‘s defenses could completely collapse. Brest and Paris are not defensible in the long run, so generally a French player will try to retreat into Marseilles, Spain, and Portugal when under heavy attack because those are much more difficult to dig out and can let France sneak into a draw if someone attempts a solo win. So I wonder if France will move Mid-Atlantic Ocean to Spain as insurance against an Italian attack while still permitting a hasty retreat if Italy turns out to be juking/faking-out Turkey (and still goes for his Lepanto).
• I really gotta figure out what I’m going to do, if anything, about that damn Austrian army in Silesia.
  • • If this were a low-level game, I would feel compelled to guard Berlin (because in games full of new/bad players, they lunge for every damn center they possibly can, regardless of the long-run tactical or strategic implications).
    • Even though this is a high-level game, Austria could still harass me by taking Berlin. England and France are essentially no threat to Austria, but Germany is also only a small threat to Austria, so Austria shouldn’t be helping England and France to break through my (Germany‘s) defense this early. But I’m not completely sure because I am allied to Russia (Austria‘s prime target)… and Austria might feel like I am helping Russia too much and therefore he needs to harass Germany (me) somehow.
• Overall, I need to come up with a moveset that accomplishes some or all of the following goals:
  • Maximize my advantage against England using North Sea. This certainly includes bringing England down by a point, or even two if I can come up with a likely scenario where I could accomplish that.
    • Specifically, I want to help Russia get Norway and/or take London (either this turn, or to set up for that in 1904).
    • I need to think about whether I can afford to convoy an army onto Great Britain. I only have 3 armies, so that would be  HUGE risk as I could completely collapse my own defenses. However, if it pays off, I could end up taking all the English home centers. Generally speaking, any invading power that is able to convoy an army onto Great Britain winds up being able to take over the whole thing – especially if England’s lone army gets stranded on the continent.
  • Express my contempt to France for not responding to my alliance overtures. If I blithely continue to support-hold France after he clearly expressed a desire to work with England against me, I may encourage Russia to backstab me. Russia needs to believe that my next target, after England, will be France.
    • Previously, I thought it would be worth it to make this gesture towards France because it might induce France to attack England or worry England that it would happen, but it didn’t work. So now I need to back off this strategy before I alienate Russia any more than I may have so far.
    • This may also encourage Italy to attack France.

Orders: I have a lot of options

Frick, this is a really difficult turn for me because I have to choose between a really boring low-risk defensive moveset, a low-risk attacking moveset, and some aggressive, risky moves that could result in a big payoff. The starting point of my analysis is North Sea and whether I have a chance of taking London without losing any other centers (and thus get a build):

• At first it appears viable for me to convoy an army onto Great Britain, but I think it is only worth it if I try to convoy into London (and not Yorkshire) so that I could immediately get a replacement army build for defense. In order to convoy into London, I have to use Belgium. My convoy would fail if either France bounces me using his English Channel fleet or if England dislodges North Sea.
  • If the convoy fails because France bounces me, that means France only could have attacked Belgium with 2 units (the armies in Picardy and Burgundy) which means I can defend Belgium. If France attacks Belgium with all 3 units – specifically, by supporting Burgundy into Belgium with English Channel and Picardy – then he will take Belgium even as I (possibly) take London. Ooof, that would be a really bad outcome because France would get a build instead of me, and I would be down to 2 armies for defense.
  • If the convoy fails because England dislodges my fleet, I might be able to retreat into London anyways as long as France didn’t move there. Belgium would stay defended or else I would get London to make up for the loss of Belgium, but my army in Belgium would blow up and I would have to rebuild it in Berlin or Kiel. That’s not horrible, but still pretty crummy.
• After thinking through these scenarios, the risk involved with the convoy just seems too high – if I didn’t get a replacement army build and instead France got a build, I would probably be screwed. England would still be alive and kicking afterwards and have no choice but to go all-in on getting rid of my army, so I would be in a bad way strategically, perhaps even if the attack worked and I did get the replacement build.
• If I move North Sea to London, I can only be stopped from taking that center if France bounces me out with English Channel. This is a low-risk high-reward move:
  • High reward: if it works, I get another build as long as I can defend all my other centers, and it looks relatively easy to put up a defense this turn. A build this turn would make a big difference because I could get a 4th army and thus have an extremely strong defense of all my home centers.
  • Low risk: I don’t specifically need to use North Sea for any of my defenses this turn. Furthermore, even if the fleet was bounced, it might not be dislodged by England (as England might not risk dislodging my fleet only for me to retreat into London). Furthermore, even if it were dislodged by England while France covers London, I could retreat to Yorkshire (not a bad position; a fleet in Yorkshire continues to threaten English home centers and North Sea) or Heligoland Bight.
• A risky, weird idea could be to try to hold North Sea (or poke something with North Sea) and gamble that France moves English Channel into London (to bounce me), thus greatly damaging England and perhaps putting England and France at war.
  • After thinking about this a while, I don’t like it. If Russia gets Norway and France gets London, those two powers will each get a build while I get none – I will look like a weaker power  (just 6 units, half fleets, which are horrible for defense as Germany) and probably those two would start considering how they can carve me up in the mid-game.

So here’s what I’ve come up with:

• The army at Belgium hold.
• The army at Ruhr support hold the army at Belgium.
• The fleet at Holland support hold the army at Belgium.
  • This guarantees that I retain control of Belgium. No attack possibility exists that overcome my defense.
  • I could do something to support-hold a French army (to signal a desire to ally yet again) but I don’t want to send that message, for the reasons I discussed earlier.
• The fleet at North Sea move to London.
  • I think I am forced to make this move, because either 1) it works and I probably get a build or 2) I bounce France, which means I am denying France a build, which is almost as good.
• The fleet at Denmark support hold the fleet in Sweden.
  • • Russia is somewhat likely  to attack Norway. We’ve been building up to this for a long time and this is Russia’s only chance to get a build this turn and break out into the north.
    • Russia is more likely to attack with St. Petersburg, because 1) he doesn’t need to guard St. Petersburg, except from Norway which he would be attacking 2) if it works, he could build in St. Petersburg, which would be awesome for him; numerous fleet builds in the north set up Russia for an rare, powerful, northern game 3) if he left Sweden, another power (England, Germany) could walk right in.
    • If I support-hold Sweden, that prevents England from trying to counterattack Russia by supporting Norway into Sweden with Skagerrak.
    • If England disrupts Russia’s attack by poking Sweden with Skagerrak, I don’t really know what I could do to help. England might make such a move for this reason.
    • Even if Russia doesn’t attack Norway (e.g., he moves St. Petersburg to Barents Sea and Moscow to St. Petersburg, to set up for a much strong attack on Norway in 1904), I need to help protect Sweden for him. I can’t afford England getting a build. Plus, a dislodged Russian fleet could retreat to Baltic Sea and ruin my life.
• The army at Munich move to Berlin.
  • This is a fairly paranoid move, but I feel paranoid about Austria. He has not behaved how I predicted recently, and I am worried he will do something greedy because he got bounced out of Galicia and thus can’t make a supported attack on Warsaw. Berlin has been empty since the first move, and Austria has essentially zero chance of getting a build anywhere else. So I am paranoid that Austria will feel greedy, something like “It’s more important than anything else that I get another build, because if I get another build, I will then have enough armies to overpower Russia; even if I lose Berlin next year, I will have a year to make up for it by taking Warsaw. Plus, Germany is so overbuilt on fleets, he probably will never be able to come back and take Berlin. Plus, it’s not like Germany can punish me in any way. Plus, I probably need Berlin to solo win. Plus Germany keeps helping my enemy Russia.”
  • Obviously, this move risks Munich. But no power has attempted to take Munich all game, and I’ve sat in Munich for numerous turns, so I doubt that France or Austria would read that I am going to vacate Munich and cover Berlin.

Predictions: what’s next for England?

• I think England will feel quite desperate this turn. I don’t think England will dislodge North Sea, because that might allow my fleet to retreat into London (if France hasn’t taken London first and my fleet and France‘s don’t bounce in London). I have to think about whether England will completely give up on offense, play a defensive game from now on, and convoy his army back on the island (which will be needed for any spirited defense), or if England will try to hold onto Norway a few more turns (or attack Sweden). I also have to think about whether England will just ignore North Sea or move a unit to North Sea without support (thus taking North Sea back if I do get London, or cutting my support if I were to execute a support order with North Sea). This huge range of possibility makes England difficult to predict, in my opinion. I consider this the most difficult prediction I have had to make thus far.
  • I don’t really have a feel here. I am making a wild guess sort of, but I’ll predict that England doesn’t return his army to the island because he doesn’t have to lose Norway yet. So if he thinks that, then maybe he will move Edinburgh to Yorkshire backfill with Norwegian Sea. Then he might move Norway to Sweden supported by Skagerrak.
  • I wouldn’t be surprised if he made some more aggressive attack to desperately get build, or if he brought his army back to the island while he still can, sacrificing Norway to be able to play a turtle game for longer.
• I predict that France will move English Channel into London. I am really hoping that France will make a wasted attack on Belgium (because he is afraid of accidentally taking London or thinks I’m going to make a convoy), but the French player seems mighty clever and I think he will predict my moves and/or also see a move into London as win/win (either he bounces me, which is good, or he takes it and gets a build, which is great). Accordingly, I think he will support-hold Burgundy with Picardy and Marseilles again. I think he will just hold with Burgundy. Meanwhile, I think France will get worried about Italy and move Mid-Atlantic Ocean either Spain or Western Mediterranean. Spain seems more likely to me.
  • If I’m wrong about France and he decides to backstab England and all-out attack him, then France might support-hold one of my armies with Burgundy and move Mid-Atlantic Ocean to North Atlantic Ocean or Irish Sea.
• I think Russia will move St. Petersburg to Norway supported by Sweden. I think Russia will again support-hold Rumania  with Sevastopol. I think Russia will again move Warsaw to Galicia and backfill Warsaw with Moscow. I am not sure how to guess which support order Rumania will execute. I suppose since Russia supported Bulgaria into Serbia last time, he will try to do so again (since that would consistently communicate an alliance intent to Turkey).
• Turkey has to decide whether to move Eastern Mediterranean into Aegean Sea (possibly taking it, possibly bouncing Austria, possibly bouncing Italy) or to hold with that fleet (fearing that Italy is trying to juke him so that his Lepanto can get through).
  • I’m going to guess…I’ll guess that Turkey will interpret Italy’s moves as preparing for an attack on France (and not a Lepanto fake-out) because Turkey will be so excited at the possibility of a breakout. Most people err on the side of believing good news, even gunboat Diplomacy players. So I predict he’ll move the fleet to Aegean.
  • I think Turkey will repeat his other moves (Bulgaria to Serbia, Constantinople to Bulgaria supported by Back Sea) because players tend to repeat moves they move previously, and that is especially reinforced here because Russia actually supported his attack on Serbia last turn.
• Austria should have reduced confidence in his alliance with Italy, because Italy did finally return that army to the continent. But Italy has tried to ally with him for many turns now, so probably he won’t react to that yet. Dagnabbit, I predict that Austria moves Vienna to Galicia supported by Silesia, pokes Rumania with Budapest, and supports Greece to Bulgaria with Serbia.
  • Most players continue to make the same moves turn after turn, so I am predicting something similar to what Austria did last turn. These moves set him up for attacks on Warsaw and/or Rumania in 1904 and continue to give him the opportunity to lunge for Berlin or Munich at a later turn while pretending to be non-threatening to me.
  • I realize I am not predicting that Austria will lunge for Berlin, even though I am guarding against such a move. That’s why I called my move “paranoid.”
• I think Italy will attempt his Lepanto yet again and gamble that Turkey moves that fleet into Aegean (and thus get juked). I really really hope that Italy comes after France instead of doing this, but Italy has been hell-bent on his silly Lepanto attack since the very beginning and I don’t see credible sign that he is going to stop. I think his last move was a fake-out. Therefore, I predict Ionian to Eastern Med, Tyrrhenian to Ionian, Apulia hold, Piedmont hold.

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