Spring 1903 – war with England; can I ally France?

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Developments: England desperately wants France’s alliance

• England: 56% (9/16)
  • • I am disappointed here because I think building in Edinburgh is strategically weak, even when allied to France. Using London to hold North Sea prevents France from making an easy backstab. This build location is servile.^[1]I made this comment about the move being “servile” without explanation of what I meant by this term. Later in this journal, in the middle of my notes for Spring 1909, I wrote an aside to explain my use of this word and how my concept of “servile” moves factors into my analysis.
• France: 56% (9/16)
  • No surprise from this build.

Strategic Thoughts: there’s nothing I can do to attack France

• At the start of Autumn 1902 I thought maybe Austria and I would be the point leaders, but as it turns out it’s me and Russia – each with 6. It’s pretty cool that my ally and I have a little bit of a lead.
• At this point, France can defend against me indefinitely so I should stop wasting my time attacking him. Germany cannot, alone, invade France first. It’s a real shame that England didn’t make even the slightest hostile move to France, and that Italy doesn’t actually want to attack France either. France is – by far –  the strongest power in gunboat, and I really wish they would join me in attacking France. If France starts growing, they’ll come to regret it.
  • If France starts support-holding me this turn, I may take some risks on attacking England while not attacking France. But if France attacks me this turn, I will probably consider alliance between us to be impossible under the circumstances and restart my attacks on France. This is because after this turn (once France starts to threaten Belgium) I’ll probably have to vary my moves to include attacks on Burgundy to prevent France from being able to outguess me and take Belgium.

Orders: I’ll all-out attack England and try to ally France

Unlike some of my previous turns, there is no struggle for me here to come up with my moves; I find them all intuitive and obvious. I decided what moves to make in about 30 seconds.

• The army at Ruhr support hold the unit in Belgium.
• The army at Belgium support hold the unit in Picardy.
• The army at Munich support hold the unit in Burgundy.
  • I have a simple plan with my armies: with Ruhr support-holding Belgium and North Sea getting “poked”^[2]Some players use the word “poke” to mean executing a move order that is intended to fail because an opponent’s unit occupies the territory being moved into, but will nevertheless cut any support order executed by that opposing unit. by my fleet, I strongly protect Belgium (the only attack on Belgium that would work would be North Sea to Belgium supported by both Picardy and Burgundy, and I just see no chance of France and England coordinating that attack; if I recall correctly they haven’t tried to support each other even one time and England has never moved on Belgium before). Since Belgium is protected and France can’t get into Ruhr or Munich, I may as well just support-hold France and try to convince him that he should ally me against England (and/or scare England into thinking that France will ally me).
  • Note: if I wanted to 100% guarantee that Belgium is protected this turn, I could move Munich to Burgundy to cut any support – but doing so would send mixed messages to France. I’d rather send a clear message of alliance since I think the chances of a coordinated move into Belgium by North Sea are so low.
• The fleet at Heligoland Bight move to North Sea.
• The fleet at Holland support move to North Sea from Heligoland Bight.
• The fleet at Kiel move to Denmark.
  • I also have a simple plan with my fleets: either I am going to take control of North Sea this turn (because England didn’t support-hold North Sea with Edinburgh) or I will get my Kiel fleet into Denmark (because England did support-hold North Sea with Edinburgh). Either outcome sets me up for a powerful follow-up turn.
  • In Autumn 1903, I will be able to threaten many possible moves with my fleet. I think I will be in a good position to defend all 6 of my centers and have a chance of breaking into North Sea if I haven’t done so already. Probably I won’t get North Sea this turn, so I am thinking this is what will happen:
    • England will be terrorized into support-holding North Sea with everything he can, which will prevent him from “poking” Holland with North Sea. This will allow Holland to support-hold Belgium together with Ruhr, which means I can defend Belgium even if France attacks with English Channel, Picardy, and Burgundy.
    • England may pull back his Barents Sea fleet to defend North Sea, which could allow Russia to break through. I DEFINITELY want to see this happen if England and France stay allied because it’s the only way Russia will be able to help me against England in the long run (specifically I mean that Russia needs to take Norway to reduce England by 1 unit. If you count carefully, France has 5 and England has 4, I have 6, and Russia is able to use 3 for his northern game (the two fleets plus Moscow), which means we are in a 9 vs. 9 unit battle – the slightest mistake could tip the balance hugely towards one side, and even one gain for Russia could make this 9 vs. 8 or 10 vs. 8).
    • France might opportunistically attack England. Surely France wants to eliminate somebody, and England always looks like a tasty target for France – especially if England will collapse quickly. At least I hope France will think that.
    • I could support Russia into Sweden (from Finland), finally undoing the effects of Russia ’s horribly mistaken movement of that fleet into Finland.

Predictions: probably France will accept England’s alliance offer

• For England, I predict that Edinburgh will support-hold North Sea, Barents Sea will move back to Norwegian Sea, and Norway will move to Sweden again (to bounce Russia’s fleet). I further predict that North Sea will support a French army into Belgium – difficult to say which one he would choose. I will guess…Picardy.
• I predict that France will move Portugal to Mid-Atlantic Ocean and Brest to English Channel. I predict that Marseilles and Picardy will both support-hold Burgundy. As for Burgundy, it is tough to call even if I get the rest of the moveset right. I really hope that Burgundy will support-hold one of my armies (say, Munich), but more likely France will support North Sea into Belgium to make a point that he wants England to attack me (and that his fleet movement into English Channel shouldn’t be considered hostile to England).
• Note: even if France supports North Sea into Belgium with Burgundy as I predict, and England moves North Sea to Belgium (which I definitely don’t predict, as that risks North Sea), that attack still won’t work unless France also supports that attack with Picardy (because I am support-holding Belgium with Ruhr). I consider France making a double-support like that extremely unlikely, because he would risk Burgundy on a moveset that is unlikely to work (England wouldn’t move to Belgium) and has little payoff (it doesn’t really help France to put England in Belgium, other than, I suppose, to make it easier nab Belgium for himself in Autumn 1903).
  • Double-supporting Burgundy is the only way to ensure I don’t get into Burgundy.  If I were France, I would be really afraid of Germany going after Burgundy supported by Ruhr and Munich (my armies have nothing else to do) and maybe backfilling Belgium with Holland.
  • Moving to Mid-Atlantic Ocean is especially good for France, since that move could be used to go back and attack Italy or to backstab England. Most likely, both England and Italy will simply assume France isn’t coming after them and pray that they made the right assumptions.
  • If France doesn’t do this, he’ll probably attack Belgium to show England his good faith in allying him against me. I feel like there is a pretty good chance of this happening, but after hemming and hawing about what I think is most likely, I don’t predict an attack because such an attack would risk Burgundy for no tactical benefit to France.
• I think Russia will move Finland to Sweden and hold St. Petersburg one more turn with Moscow. I think Russia will move Warsaw to Galicia supported by Rumania, and support-hold Rumania with Sevastopol.
  • It seems like Russia needs to do what he can to maintain control of Rumania. Finally, FINALLY, Turkey came to his aid last turn. If Turkey understands that Russia is his ally, then Turkey can use Black Sea to support-hold Rumania (protecting it from Austria) instead of Bulgaria (since Austria now only borders Bulgaria with 2 units). I think Russia will bet on Turkey executing that support order.
  • There is a possibility that Austria could try to set up for a powerful attack in Autumn 1903  by thrusting Galicia into Ukraine and hoping that it isn’t bounced, so Russia might get worried about this and try to block Ukraine.  Because England seems likely to retreat with Barents Sea and didn’t attack St. Petersburg last turn, Russia might do this with Moscow. I hope not, and that’s not my prediction – I want Russia to keep playing a northern game. I want that army committed to fighting in the north, not dragged into the war against Austria. If Russia does try to bounce Austria  in Ukraine, I hope it is with his Warsaw army.
• I predict that Turkey will support-hold Bulgaria with Constantinople and support-hold Rumania with Black Sea. I further predict that Turkey will support-hold Rumania with Bulgaria just for the hell of it even though Bulgaria is very likely to be poked. I also predict that Turkey will, again, move Smyrna to Eastern Mediterranean Sea (after all, that defensive move has worked twice now, so why stop?).
• I think Austria will try to move Galicia somewhere and backfill with Vienna – that seems like the easiest way to get Vienna in on the action, and Austria doesn’t need to defend his rear because he is allied to Italy and neutral with me  (Germany). Austria made a blunder last turn in losing control of Rumania, but Rumania still has to be his next target – that’s the supply center he has the best chance of taking by the end of 1903, since Bulgaria is so well-defended now. Therefore, I predict that Austria will move Galicia to Rumania supported by Budapest and Serbia, and will move Greece to Bulgaria to poke Turkey’s Bulgaria army (and thus cancel any support-hold coming from there onto Rumania). Then Austria will backfill Galicia with Vienna.
  • Alternatively, Austria might take a bigger gamble and move Galicia to Ukraine or Galicia to Silesia, and backfill with Vienna supported by Budapest. I do not predict that Austria will do this…how can I put it…I just don’t read his mind as wanting to make those moves. I could be wrong, so I want to point out that I also thought of these different moves for Galicia as different possibilities, even though I won’t make that my official prediction. 
• Italy is boring me to tears. I feel like I can’t do anything other than predict he will make the exact same moves as last turn, since he has insisted on making them over and over. (Hold with Piedmont and Tunis, lunge for Eastern Mediterranean Sea with Ionian fleet and backfill Ionian with Naples).

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