Winter 1902 (Builds) – all-out war with  England

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Developments: Austria misplayed, allowing Russia to recover

• England: 53% (8/15)
  • I guessed the spirit of England’s moves if not the particulars. He thought I would bounce myself using Holland and tried to make a “hostile support” that would cause my Holland fleet to end up in Kiel (thus preventing me from building where I want to, in Kiel).^[1]What I call a “hostile support” is one of the most advanced tactics in Diplomacy. A “hostile support” counters the defensive tactic of “self-bouncing,” which is a way that a player can defend by “bouncing” two of their own off of each other in order … Continue reading This is a clever idea, but it didn’t work. He also renewed his attack on Russia, but not the way I predicted. I blew up his fleet like I wanted.
• France: 53% (8/15)
  • Finally, France is making sense to me! France did exactly as I predicted.
• Russia: 76% (16/21)
  • Russia also did exactly as I predicted. I would not have done anything different myself. Thank goodness Russia‘s moves worked. In my opinion, Russia‘s success here was really due to Austria choosing weird moves… but I guess I am feeling better about choosing Russia as my ally. This last turn Russia chose sensible moves.
• Turkey: 80% (12/15)
  • Dang I was on FIRE last turn with my predictions! Or maybe the good moves were really obvious. Anyways, I predicted all of Turkey’s moves as well, so that’s three out of four players so far whose entire movesets I predicted correctly. I am really glad here that Turkey did the noble thing and tried to help Russia back into Rumania. I did not want Austria getting a build by taking from Russia right now. I am also glad that Turkey keeps successfully blocking Italy’s Lepanto attacks.
• Austria: 56% (10/18)
  • Total whiff for me! I predicted nothing correctly about Austria’s moves…which startles me because I thought the best moves for Austria were pretty obvious. Austria decided to try for Bulgaria, even though Turkey seemed really likely to defend Bulgaria, and so now Austria lost Rumania to an also-very-predictable attack from Russia. Sucks for Austria. I guess I consider this a blunder by Austria, because I don’t know what he was thinking. Maybe Austria thought that it was important to strike a blow on Turkey to help Italy…? Anyways, this is fortuitous development for me (Germany) because I don’t want Austria to get too strong too early.
• Italy: 53% (8/15)
  • Frankly, I am baffled and disappointed. Why did Italy stop support-holding Marseilles with Piedmont…? Is he trying to say he might attack Italy eventually, or did he just stop caring?^[2]Yoyoyozo, who played Italy, said this after the game: “And then there’s the unit in Piedmont. It sat there forever because if I had attacked France with it, they would have attacked me. I thought I’d keep my options open. Yes Piedmont was support holding Marseilles, which looks like … Continue reading What on earth is Italy trying to communicate with is failed Tunis convoy? I myself sometimes deliberately make a failed convoy to show an arrow on the map towards the country I want other players to attack – it’s a really cool trick if you don’t need to use the army – but I don’t get what he’s trying to show here. I also am disappointed that he want for Eastern Mediterranean Sea yet again and, predictably, got blocked by Turkey. This is why I keep calling Italy’s Lepanto attack silly – it’s so obvious, it’s so telegraphed, there’s no way it will work. That attack works when when sneak into Eastern Mediterranean Sea (at least in a high level game you need to sneak).^[3]When I say sneak, I mean do something like move Naples to Tyrrhenian Sea while convoying the Tunis army with Ionian back into Apulia, then follow up the next turn by moving Tyrrhenian to Ionian and Ionian to Eastern Mediterranean Sea—Turkey won’t expect THAT because the player will think … Continue reading

Strategic Thoughts: will France attack England?

• Not much happened other than Russia regaining control of Rumania before losing a point. I think that’s pretty cool.
• England and I are now completely at war. England is also at war with Russia, so I think I can trust Russia and need to continue to help him. There is no reason for me to attack Russia right now, especially when I am unsure of France’s intentions – will he help England against me, or dogpile England?? We shall see.

Orders: 3 fleets in 1902 as Germany; am I crazy?

• Build a fleet at Kiel.
  • Usually I say it’s unwise for Germany to load up on fleets early on in the game. However, from time to time, it can work. I am reluctant here to build a fourth army, because I am not really sure what I could even do with it. I don’t need additional armies to support-hold Munich or Ruhr against France because France doesn’t have enough units in position to attack me until France takes Belgium.
    • Unless France attacks England with me, France’s next goal will be to take control of Belgium. At this point, an additional army doesn’t really help me defend against that. If I could break through Burgundy, then I would probably get an additional army to be able to backfill after taking Burgundy. But Italy has not once – ever – attacked Marseilles. If Italy were attacking Marseilles, I might be able to break into Burgundy. But Italy seems to be attempting some kind of half-assed neutrality with France, so I don’t expect to get help there. I want to encourage France to attack England, so this is not the time for invading Burgundy (ineffectually).
  • I need to threaten to take North Sea. If England loses control of North Sea, often England’s entire defense collapses. England will be locked down, and maybe even have to retreat from Barents Sea into Norwegian to get some additional support-hold defense.
    • This could be what is needed for my ally Russia to finally push England out of Norway. I think that if Russia takes Norway, Russia will continue to help me attack England with his fleets.
    • Perhaps making England so vulnerable will induce France to attack. If England has to use everything he has to hold North Sea, then France could just slip into London to get a build and England will quickly collapse. I don’t like the idea of France taking English home centers and becoming so strong (he’s not getting attacked by Italy), but at this point England is the only player who has committed himself thoroughly to war with me, so I would like to see him forced to retreat from that. Hopefully, Russia will stay allied to me and guard me (Germany) against France instead of backstabbing me (when I am France, the best thing ever is when Russia backstabs Germany early on, after England is neutralized; I think that almost ensures a solo win for France).
  • I want to show everyone who isn’t England my firm commitment to attacking England and playing a northern game. Building so many fleets gives Austria and Russia very little to fear from me, so I expect they will leave me alone and focus on other targets.

Predictions: France will also get another fleet

• I predict that England will rebuild his fleet in Edinburgh. If it were me, I would rebuild in London to guard against France backstabbing me; if France were to poke London, he wouldn’t take it and instead just collapse the North Sea defense in favor of Germany. I personally think that is the much better move (building in London). However, last time I predicted that, England actually built in Edinburgh to show favor to France. Therefore, I predict he will do that again, because he’s afraid of making enemies with all 3 of his neighbors.
• I predict that France will build a fleet in Brest. France is, in my opinion, primarily a naval power and very much needs a second fleet build early on.

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