Autumn 1902 – England attacks Germany (me!)

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Developments: England attacks Germany (me); Austria breaks through against Russia

• England: 64% (7/11)
  • Well, I underestimated England a little; he understood that I am coming for him. Boy am I glad I moved to North Sea to bounce his Edinburgh fleet. His attack on Russia was a waste of time. Boy am I irritated to see that fleet in Heligoland Bight…but I can’t see what tactical advantage has been provided to England. He might have been able to take Sweden if he had gone to Skagerrak as I predicted, and that stranded fleet is not a credible threat to any of my centers as I can easily block him or bounce him out.
• France: 36% (4/11)
  • Well, I was sort of right in a general way that France reacted somewhat favorably to what Italy was doing, but I didn’t get the right predictions here at all. France defended Burgundy and lunged for Belgium, but not in the way I thought. Regardless, all of France’s “move” orders failed, so France has sputtered around a bit. I guess he thought that his Spain move would fail (or hoped it would…?) so that he could still pick up Portugal. I don’t seem to be too good at reading this French player; it seems that I personally value an early nab of Portugal much higher than he does.
• Russia: 67% (10/15)
  • Well, at this moment I’m a little disappointed in my ally. Russia wasted a move trying to counter England from moving his army into Finland, and now his fleet is horribly out of position in Finland – ugh! Furthermore, he didn’t support-hold Rumania with Sevastopol, which seems like a big mistake to me. Ah well, it may work out for me better in the long run. If Russia plays like crap, despite being my ally, and gets attacked by the other powers, he won’t be a bother to me and won’t be able to backstab me later on. It would be pretty nice if he could just lock down a few of England’s units for a while and prevent England from getting builds without accomplishing anything else. But now I’m worried that he’s going to lose a supply center in Rumania, blow up^[1]I use this slang term “blow up” to mean “disband” pretty often. On webDiplomacy, there’s a little explosion graphic when a unit is disbanded. one of his northern units, and then collapse in the north…which could give England the 1 or 2 builds he needs to hold me off forever.
• Turkey: 73% (8/11)
  • I got most of these predictions right, but I am also disappointed with Turkey’s moves once again. Specifically, I can’t believe Turkey moved Bulgaria to Greece instead of Serbia; that had about zero chance of working. If Turkey had moved to Serbia, he would have cut the support for Austria’s attack on Rumania and Russia wouldn’t now be such a horrible position. Austria and Italy are clearly allied against him, and he has to defend against Italy ’s silly Lepanto attack (he guessed right in blocking that, thank goodness), so I don’t see how it helps him for Austria to take Rumania, not at all. I don’t like Austria having such an explosive early game.
• Austria: 77% (10/13)
  • Well, I got only a few predictions exactly right. I did correctly predict that Austria would support Italy into Aegean Sea with Greece (just in case Italy tried to move into Aegean Sea, since Austria would not want to move Greece) and try to get into Galicia. Austria deviated for the first time from what I predicted, but apparently Austria made the right choices because he ended up in Rumania and looks likely to capture it this year.
• Italy: 64% (7/11)
  • Well, I am disappointed with Italy; he would have gone into Aegean Sea if he had tried. It would have worked even if Austria hadn’t supported him (Austria DID support him). So now his crummy Lepanto plan has been set back or perhaps failed altogether, and now Austria is coming to get a build. If Italy keeps attempting a Lepanto attack, he will probably get backstabbed by Austria because he’s no threat and can’t retaliate while he has merely 1 army to guard his home centers. I’m also disappointed he’s keeping his army in Piedmont. Generally speaking, behaving in a servile way towards your allies – not guarding against them even one bit – invites a backstab (because your ally knows the backstab will work…).

Strategic Thoughts: build a 3rd fleet next?

• Well, my plans are working out for me pretty well so far. I’ll definitely get Belgium and can easily defend all the centers I have right now, so I can ensure another build. At this point, my mind is already in the builds phase: what am I going to build at the end of 1902 – a 3rd fleet or a 4th army? Normally I consider it naive to build a lot of fleets early as Germany, but at this point in this game I’m not sure what a 4th army can do for me.
  • Three armies already saturates my front with France, especially with France concentrating towards the south.
  • I shouldn’t invade and backstab Russia right now; I need Russia to help me against England.
  • I can’t do anything about Austria; I would never gain a center because Austria can easily defend himself, and I might even end up luring Austria out against me.
  • Sometimes, as Germany, I consider building an army and moving it through Tyrolia into Piedmont to attack Marseilles, but here Italy has parked himself in Piedmont and refuses to leave it, so I don’t know what I would accomplish by moving into Tyrolia.
  • So I find myself thinking that I need either a 3rd fleet to try to crush England, or perhaps even a 3rd fleet to make a play for Sweden (because if I did attack Russia, I wouldn’t want England to be able to profit from it; I will still have to contend with England if I attack Russia).
  • Once I see how things shape up after this turn, I can think much more on this, but I’m trying to figure out if there’s a way I can set up for either of those things in 1903. Once I have Belgium, I don’t have any obvious route to another center. I probably can’t break through into French home centers with nobody else attacking France, and I already discussed how other plans aren’t viable, so I need to either keep allied to Russia and try to crack into North Sea, or else write Russia off as a helpless ally and try to dominate the north entirely on my own.
• I think Austria and I (Germany) will emerge from 1902 as the two strongest powers by a small margin, at 6 supply centers each. After that, the game may set into a long grind. I wonder if this game will demonstrate the common belief that Germany benefits from a strong Austria. I hope so!^[2]I do not subscribe to this belief. I think a strong Austria reduces Germany‘s chances either solo winning or getting to a draw. A strong Austria will occupy centers Germany needs to solo win (Warsaw, Moscow, and possibly Vienna and Sevastopol), come after Germany ‘s home centers … Continue reading

Orders: I’ll fight off England with all my units

• The fleet at Denmark move to Heligoland Bight.
• The fleet at Holland support move to Heligoland Bight from Denmark.
  • These moves, combined with blocking Kiel (discussed below) will result in either England retreating the fleet to North Sea (if he doesn’t just move there voluntarily), or, if he moves Edinburgh to North Sea, then he will have no retreat option and be forced to blow up that fleet (but he will get to immediately rebuild that unit).
  • I could move either Denmark or Holland, one supported by the other, and my plan here would work. I decided to move Denmark rather than Holland because, on the coming turn, I may want to support-hold Belgium with Holland. Further, I would like to show continued expressions of trust and goodwill towards Russia; if I left Denmark in place, it might imply that my (intended) fleet build this winter is for attacking Sweden, but Russia will see I mean him no harm. Dagnabbit though, Russia better not lose Sweden to England somehow.
    • There’s no unit on the board that could possibly move into Denmark other than Heligoland Bight, but that fleet can’t retreat into Denmark if attacked from there, so I have no fear of vacating Denmark for a turn.
• The army at Ruhr move to Kiel.
• The army at Munich move to Kiel.
  • These moves guard against England moving to Kiel without giving up their defensive positions, and without any risk that they actually end up in Kiel (because I plan to build a fleet in Kiel after these moves).
  • Remember: because a “battle” (a.k.a. bounce) was fought in Kiel between my two units, England cannot retreat into Kiel, even though Kiel will be empty during the retreats phase.
• The army at Belgium support hold the army in Burgundy.
  • I need to have a unit in Belgium at the end of this turn in order to capture Belgium. I can’t really see any reason to move out. If I wanted to move to Picardy, I would have to backfill with another unit and I don’t want to leave Ruhr or Holland. I might have considered supporting an attack into Burgundy with Ruhr and Munich, except England is menacing me with his fleet in Heligoland bight and I need to guard Kiel. Darn!
  • At this point, there’s no way I’ll be able to make an attack on France in 1903, and perhaps for years to come. I often see this in games, where after either France or Germany gets control of Belgium, each power crams up a ton of armies onto the front and neither can overpower the other. That situation can go on for a while if neither power is threatened from behind.
  • Right now, France doesn’t really have any quick growth plan after taking Portugal. He can’t quickly profit from attacking me (it would be a long grind), so perhaps he will consider attacking Italy (who looks to be pretty weak soon) or maybe going after England with me. In any event, the worst-case scenario for me would be France building a fleet in Brest, moving into English Channel, and then trying to work with England to wrest Belgium from me. So perhaps – PERHAPS – this small gesture will encourage France to do something else (or maybe cause England to become paranoid that France will respond to my gesture, and try to guard against France).^[3]This is some high-level wheels-within-wheels strategy that is worth learning. In a gunboat game, your attempts to gain a player’s alliance are visible to everyone, and the player you are attempting to ally cannot, with words, deny the possibility of alliance. Therefore, even a one-sided … Continue reading

Predictions: I’ll get a build, and so will France and Austria

• England has almost nothing to lose from getting his fleet blown up since he can just rebuild it, so I predict that England will move Edinburgh to North Sea (even though it cuts off a retreat for Heligoland Bight) and lunge for something with Heligoland Bight. I’ll guess…Kiel. Sure. Meanwhile, I think England will renew his attack on St. Petersburg  with Norway, supported by Barents Sea.
• France has perplexed me. I’ll guess Spain move to Portugal to pick up the build, Marseilles support-hold Burgundy, and Paris move to Picardy supported by Burgundy (I realize this is essentially the same prediction I made last time, but France’s moves all failed and I still feel like those moves would be good).
• Russia will move Finland to Sweden (he simply must cover that center) and once again hold St. Petersburg with Moscow. Russia will move Ukraine to Rumania supported by Sevastopol and just pray that Austria screws up and that Turkey helps him somehow. Russia will move Warsaw to Galicia yet again.
• Turkey is in a tough spot – Bulgaria is at serious risk, Austria is going to get a build, and Italy may make another Lepanto attempt. He really screwed up by going into Black Sea instead of Constantinople earlier.
  • I think Turkey will move Smyrna to Eastern Mediterranean Sea again because if he moves it to Aegean the move has a chance of failing even if he guesses Italy’s move into Aegean correctly, because Austria may use Greece to support Italy yet again – plus, Italy has a chance of backstabbing Austria from Aegean Sea, so Turkey is better off holding off Italy from getting behind him as long as possible (until either Austria or Italy attacks the other).
  • Turkey has been disappointing me this game, so I predict that Turkey will support-hold Bulgaria with both Constantinople and Black Sea, and then maybe use Bulgaria to support Ukraine into Rumania. This will be a disappointing moveset because, although it protects Bulgaria, it sets up for Austria to slowly grind him down anyways, or to kill him after taking down Russia. I hope Turkey doesn’t do as I am predicting and takes a risk on fighting back against Austria and helping Russia, such as by moving Bulgaria to Serbia
• Austria needs to consolidate Rumania into a real gain (a build) and maybe has a shot at Bulgaria as well this turn or very soon. I predict Austria will support-hold Rumania with Serbia and Budapest, and move Greece to Bulgaria. This will maximize his chances of holding Rumania, since Turkey and Russia would have to tightly coordinate to drive him out. Also, I think he’ll move Vienna to Galicia supported by Rumania.
• Italy seems like a chump to me right now. I predict he will support-hold Marseilles with Piedmont, since he has done that a bunch of times. He seems committed to allying Austria, so I predict he will hold with Tunis and again move Naples into Ionian Sea. I’ll guess, yet again, that he will move Ionian Sea into Aegean Sea, since that seems even more likely to work than before.^[4]Yoyoyozo, who played Italy, said this to me after reading this journal: “While I find it funny being called a chump for half the games moves, there’s actually a reason I made the moves I made, haha. As Italy, I like to stall for time. I hate the lepanto and would rather go for France or … Continue reading

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