Spring 1902 – Germany–Russia vs. England–France?

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Developments: all the builds are consistent with EF vs. GR

• England: 86% (6/7)
  • Hoooo boy, I got this guess wrong. By not building in London, England is communicating to France that he is 100% on France‘s side with no intention to attack France whatsoever. England probably did this so that France would not move Spain back into Mid-Atlantic Ocean, and instead continue to fight Italy. This still leaves England with options, but only ones that are bad for me. Edinburgh might move to Norwegian Sea, but much more likely is that Edinburgh will backfill North Sea after England moves Norway Sea into Heligoland Bight, Skagerrak, or Norway.
• France: 57% (4/7)
  • This army build was understandable. I would have been happy to see a fleet build, but that would have been naive on France ‘s part because I probably would attack France anyways.
• Russia: 90% (9/10)
  • I am pleasantly surprised! I believe I have been rewarded by Russia for supporting his fleet into Sweden. In return, he used the extra build to get another fleet in the north, which is extremely hostile to England and, in this small way, pushes the two of us closer to perhaps a long-term alliance. With total neutrality between England and France, and some reciprocal activity from Russia after I helped him, I will have to reassess my plan to go after Sweden this year. Attacking Russia would be throwing away my best hope at a neighbor-ally.
• Turkey: 71% (5/7)
  • I would consider Turkey a fool if he did anything else.
• Austria: 100% (8/8)
  • I would have been shocked to see anything else.
• Italy: 71% (5/7)
  • No surprises here.

Strategic thoughts: probably the alliances are real

• After these builds, France has no pressing reason to bring his fleet into Mid-Atlantic Ocean – it can’t help him defend against me (Germany) and might antagonize England after England has fully committed to neutrality or perhaps even alliance with France. France is facing a powerful Germany who is, apparently, allied to Russia — plus France is menaced by an Austria/Italy alliance — so France probably considers England his best ally right now. I think there’s a real possibility that France plays a defensive game against me (Germany) while trying to grow by attacking Italy. If a Russia/Germany alliance shuts down England from getting builds, England will never become a threat to France (and thus France can feel relatively safe in going to war with Italy).
• This usually goes without saying, but I do not fear any attack from Austria so early in the game. Austria’s natural enemy is Turkey, with Russia and Italy close behind, and Austria would not attack Germany while all those powers are at full strength.
• I also feel that I can rule out any chance of Russia attacking me in the next year or two. Russia is menaced by Austria, who is allied to Italy, and Russia is also threatened by Turkey some. Plus, Russia built that fleet, and I didn’t build any unit in Berlin. I think we may have a mutual understanding.
• I conclude that I must continue to build on my earlier charity to Russia and try to develop our relationship into a full-blown anti-England alliance. Therefore, I will not attack Sweden. My next target will be Belgium, which I will try to secure by the end of 1902.
• I don’t think Austria will backstab Italy in 1902, as it is damn difficult to get an ally as Austria in general and in gunboat in particular (and early/frequent backstabs cause all players, not just the victims, to mistrust you, which is bad for you in the long run). However, just pointing this out, if Austria moved Vienna to Tyrolia and Trieste to Venice, Austria would be able to take Venice unless Italy, at the same time, moved Piedmont back into Venice and also brought a unit up into Apulia – which all seems highly unlikely. Such an attack could collapse Italy rather quickly, and right now Turkey and Russia aren’t allied and aren’t all that threatening now that Austria has had a strong opening. Again, I am NOT predicting this attack, but I won’t be entirely surprised if it happens, because the ability for Austria to grow quickly from this attack appears much more likely than from attacking Russia or helping Italy against Turkey.
  • To be honest, if I were Italy, I would be a little fearful of an Austrian backstab. Because Turkey and Russia weren’t able to ally in 1901, and Russia is playing a northern game now with a second fleet build in the north, Austria could try to pander to Russia and get an Austria/Russia alliance going. I am going to keep my eye on this because a flip to Austria/Russia would be an extremely bad development for me.
    • I don’t want Russia to be able to decide between being allied to me (Germany) or Austria, as once Russia has started on the path to a northern game, Austria is usually the ally Russia picks because (1) Russia‘s northern fleets can be used to come after Germany and (2) Russia, when allied to Austria, usually reaches mid-game with minimal armies for fighting the army-dense Austria.
    • I want Austria to menace Russia, driving Russia into my arms keeping Russia building armies in the mid-game. Then, at my choosing, I will let one of those two help me destroy the other in the late-game.

Orders: time to hit England and France with everything I’ve got

• The fleet at Denmark move to North Sea.
  • England cannot possibly make a supported attack on Sweden this turn, so Sweden is safe and I wouldn’t accomplish anything with a support-hold other than to communicate goodwill to Russia. I think I can rule out Russia doing anything with Sweden besides fighting for Norway.
  • What I really hope to accomplish here is to harass England’s moves. I think England is very likely to move North Sea to Skagerrak, Norway, or Heligoland Bight (maybe even in that order of probability) and then backfill by moving Edinburgh into North Sea. If England doesn’t move North Sea that way, then England will probably do something to harass me from taking Belgium (like supporting Burgundy into Belgium, moving to Holland to attempt to cut my support) so there’s still a chance that my move to North Sea will accomplish something even if North Sea doesn’t move, because I could cut his support order.
  • Finally, I’ll also make a show of good faith to Russia. Moving a fleet into North Sea is one of the most hostile acts Germany can do against England, so Russia, seeing this, will consider us as moving closer in our alliance.
• The army at Munich move to Burgundy.
  • I would make this move probably regardless of what else I do, even though it would never work if not supported. I don’t actually care about leaving Munich and I expect this move to fail. Tactically, the point of this move is to cut a support order from Burgundy (discussed below). Strategically, however, the point of this move it to manifest a clear intention to invade France after I secure Belgium.
    • Because Italy is allied to Austria, is in Piedmont menacing France, and is potentially going to be attacked by France, I would like Italy to see that he can count on me as a friend in any fight against France. Perhaps Italy could be induced into attacking France first instead of Turkey, or at least second after Turkey goes down (instead of backstabbing Austria). Italy’s natural allies are, in my opinion, Russia and Germany. It should warm Italy’s heart for his two natural allies to be working together, as in the long run we stand a realistic chance of playing to a 3-way draw.
    • I want to make it abundantly clear to Russia that I am warring against both England and France (and therefore am allied to Russia). If I make this intention obvious and credible to Russia, Russia will not waste moves guarding against potential attacks from me and instead throw everything against England, Austria and/or Turkey.
• The army at Holland move to Belgium.
• The army at Ruhr support move to Belgium from Holland.
  • I think I need to make a supported move into Belgium immediately, even though captures don’t happen until the Autumn turn. Here’s why: there’s a good chance that France will support-hold Burgundy with Marseilles (thus negating any attack I might make on Burgundy) and even if not, France could still support-hold Burgundy with Paris and still any attack I made would fail. Yes, it is entirely possible that France could do something risky like “Paris to Picardy, Burgundy to Belgium, Marseilles to Burgundy,” but the risk vs. reward there for France is pretty unfavorable and that just seems like an odd move to me vs. the importance of protecting Burgundy from Germany . So if I used Ruhr to support my move into Burgundy, I think there’s a good chance I would be wasting my move.
  • Meanwhile, France could move Paris into Picardy, and then make his own supported move in Autumn 1902. So next turn, there’s a good chance France will be in both Burgundy AND Picardy, and thus able to shut me out of Belgium or take it for himself if England helps. If France takes Belgium, that will be a major setback for me. But if I can get into Belgium now, I am very likely to be able to hold it in Autumn 1902.
  • Most importantly of all, there is only one moveset (!!!) that France and England could make together that would stop me from getting into Belgium this turn. Fat chance, since they would have to both make the matching moves, which is always a major challenge in gunboat. Furthermore, these moves are rather unintuitive/weak. Finally, the worst-case scenario is that we merely bounce in Belgium – they can’t get into Belgium this turn no matter what.  
    • Burgundy to Ruhr, North Sea to Belgium. This moveset would cut support from Ruhr and cause Holland and North Sea to bounce each other. These moves seem wildly unlikely to me, as France would have to give up security for Burgundy without even making a play for Belgium. But more importantly, England must anticipate, at best, bouncing me from Belgium, or just wasting a move if France holds Burgundy, and also must give up the possibility of other moves for North Sea that are potentially more profitable and more likely to work (like an attempt to take Sweden).
    • Note – England cannot successfully support Burgundy into Belgium with North Sea, even if the two players made the matching moves, because I am moving Denmark to North Sea, which will cut support.
    • Note – France cannot successfully support North Sea into Belgium, even if the two players made the matching moves, because I am moving Munich to Burgundy, which will cut any support.
• The fleet at Kiel move to Holland.
  • I think I need to do this to backfill Holland when my move into Belgium works, and there’s also a small chance that England would move into Holland from North Sea, in which case I would bounce him out.
  • If this move succeeds, then I could support-hold Belgium next turn, and I will threaten to make a supported move into North Sea with my two fleets. I probably would NOT attempt to take North Sea by force in Autumn 1902 (I’d rather focus on getting a build and see how things shape up), but the threat could cause England to make wasted defensive moves.

Predictions: I’ll probably get into Belgium

• I think England will continue to maximize his attack on Russia. There hasn’t been any sign of England trying to attack me or directly ally France.
  • Probably what England wants to accomplish is to totally take over the north (Norway, Sweden, St. Petersburg) and then he will decide whether to attack me (Germany) next or dogpile France. Furthermore, I have also not directly attacked England at all this game; do not forget, readers, that my Kiel fleet build is ambiguous to the other players even if I already know I won’t attack Russia. England must consider that I could whip that fleet into Baltic Sea and go for Sweden in Autumn. If I did that, Russia could collapse immediately (I’m saying the next turn, Autumn 1902) and “Northern Russia”^[1]Reconsidering my brief point about “Northern Russia,” I realized this might be a good place for me to footnote my thoughts on general Russian strategy in gunboat Diplomacy. However, my notes turned out to be so detailed they required a separate post, which you can find here. would likely be snuffed out for the remainder of the game (usually a great development for both England and Germany). Therefore, England may avoid angering me while there’s still a chance I could help him against Russia. Therefore, I predict that England will support-hold Norway with Barents Sea (impregnable) and use Norway to communicate with me by supporting Denmark to Sweden. Accordingly, England will get into a better position for an attack in Autumn 1902 by moving North Sea to Skagerrak and backfill North Sea with Edinburgh.
    • There are several other attacks on Russia that might work for England , but the particular one I am predicting here, if all the moves worked out, would also set up for a supported attack on Denmark as well as Sweden and/or St. Petersburg. This provides England with the option of just attacking me outright in addition to Russia in Autumn 1902 if the attack looks promising, or at least sets up for additional attacks on me in the future. This is the main reason why I have ordered Denmark into North Sea – any attempt to backfill North Sea will fail, because we will bounce each other out (yes I am antagonizing England by doing this, but he has shown no love to me). I think England will gamble that I wouldn’t show such hostility to England in 1902 by moving my fleet to North Sea (i.e. I support myself into Baltic or support-hold him in North Sea or something like that) so he may think his backfill attempt will succeed.
  • The moves I just described are my “official” prediction, but there are other good movesets I can see England making (I won’t count these as correct guesses if England does them):
    • Move Norway to Finland. If it works, it sets England up for powerful attacks on either Sweden or St. Petersburg in the autumn (the ambiguity is the power). The only counter to this move is if Russia moves Sweden to Finland, which feels unlikely to me. If England did this, England would probably move North Sea to Norway supported by Barents Sea, and then probably move Edinburgh to Norwegian Sea (expecting the North Sea move into Norway to bounce out).
    • Move Norway to St. Petersburg supported by Barents Sea. If this move succeeds, Russia will be forced to disband the St. Petersburg fleet because there’s nowhere for it to retreat (a.k.a. “blown up”). Forced disbands are incredibly powerful for many reasons.
• I predict that France will react favorably to Italy. Italy did a support-hold with Piedmont and also didn’t use his fleet to take Tunis (the army in Tunis can’t attack France, but a fleet could). Therefore, I think France will move Spain back to Mid-Atlantic Ocean (probably to pick up Portugal in Autumn 1902), move Paris to Picardy (to have a say in Belgium or put up a defense if I take it) and support-hold Burgundy with Marseilles (guarding against a supported attack by me, so long as Italy doesn’t cut his support with Piedmont, which seems unlikely).
• I predict that Russia will move St. Petersburg to Norway supported by Sweden. That prevents England from “blowing up” his fleet (that is, forcing Russia to disband the unit) as long as I don’t cut support by moving Denmark to Sweden (a.k.a. “poke”), and has a small chance of actually working. Russia will accordingly backfill St. Petersburg with Moscow, since he might as well. In the south, Russia will support-hold Rumania with Sevastopol and support Warsaw to Galicia with Rumania.
• I predict that Turkey will try to block a silly Lepanto^[2]”Lepanto” refers to an early anti-Turkish strategy where Italy puts two fleets in Ionian Sea and Eastern Mediterranean Sea, and then double-convoys an army into Syria to make a backdoor attack on Turkey. This trick requires surprise to work, and when it does work it is very powerful. … Continue reading attack by Italy and move Smyrna to Eastern Mediterranean. Next, an attack by Austria upon Bulgaria is highly likely, so Turkey will have to guard against that. Turkey could support-hold Bulgaria, but then either Constantinople or Black Sea will do nothing really. Since this is a high level game, I predict that Turkey will do something a bit smarter than that and move Constantinople to Bulgaria supported by Black Sea, which would guard against any Austrian attack (so long as Russia didn’t poke Black Sea, which I consider highly unlikely) while leaving Bulgaria free to try to accomplish something – specifically, moving to Serbia (to potentially cut Serbia’s support-move order if Austria attacks Rumania, or possibly move into Serbia if Austria moves his army in Serbia out somewhere successfully).^[3]For any newer players reading this, there is a rule against self-dislodgement; if you make a supported attack into a territory where you already have a unit, your supported attack will fail (because you cannot dislodge your own unit). However, there are times where you might want to do this … Continue reading
  • Turkey might try to get Black Sea into Constantinople, but that’s taking a big risk; Bulgaria could get blown up.
  • If Turkey support-holds Bulgaria with Constantinople or Black Sea and then does nothing with the other – not even a communication attempt – then I think I may start considering Turkey a dense player, despite the huge point bet involved with this game.
• FINALLY, there’s actually something interesting to predict about Austria. Austria has a lot of options now, but here’s my prediction: Budapest to Galicia supported by Vienna, Trieste to Budapest, Serbia to Rumania, Greece support Ionian Sea into Aegean Sea.
  • This moveset is highly likely to take Galicia, which is necessary if Austria is ever to progress against Russia. This moveset also shows a continued attempt to stay allied to Italy, by vacating Trieste immediately after building there. There is little danger of losing control of any supply centers because Russia and Turkey aren’t coordinating, so Austria can take tiny risks instead of support-holding himself. If Italy moves to Aegean Sea, then the move will definitely work regardless of what Turkey does, if supported by Austria in this way. Even if the Greece support is a whiff, it still communicates that Austria wants Italy to attack Turkey.
  • I would be surprised if Austria backstabbed Italy, but it is in the cards, as I pointed out earlier.
• I see no reason why Italy would change his plan. Yes, I said that Austria threatens a powerful backstab on Italy, but Italy had to have already mentally prepared himself to be in this situation since he has clearly tried to ally Austria from the start and wants to attack Turkey. He knew that Austria would get 2 builds if he did that, and he convoyed his army into Tunis instead of keeping it around for defense. Nothing surprising happened, so I think he will follow-up on this plan, take a risk, and try to attack Turkey. Now I have to guess whether he will move to Eastern Mediterranean Sea with a classic Lepanto attack, or try to juke Turkey (or get Austrian support) and move to Aegean Sea. I’m going to hazard a guess that he moves to Aegean Sea – I think Italy is a little bit crafty because he opened with Venice to Piedmont. Plus this leaves more options for attack Austria if necessary (by attacking Greece) and doesn’t lock him into attacking Turkey. So I think Ionian to Aegean, Naples to Ionian, Tunis hold. I think Italy will move Piedmont back into Venice to signal that he is done bothering France and as insurance against Austria.
  • I won’t be disappointed though if Italy makes a defensive moveset

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