Well... it's not over yet
A surprise! Italy took Tunis.
In my previous entry, I expressed my pessimism and pointed out the ability of Italy, Turkey and Austria to set up a stalemate line. However, I am surprised to see that Italy and Turkey, together, attacked Austria's fleet at Tunis.
I recall Austria's willingness to cede supply centers in order to stay in the draw; Austria only asked me to help defend at least one Austrian supply center. So it is possible that Austria gave away Tunis at Italy's request. However, I don't think that's what happened. Looking at the board, Austria was forced out of Tunis by an attack and retreated to North Africa.
Have Turkey and Italy decided to eliminate Austria? They might be trying to prevent Austria from throwing the game. Or perhaps Italy is insisting on ending the match with more centers (which seems plausible since Italy also took Budapest, costing Turkey a build). I'm not quite sure. I need to talk to Austria.
If Italy and Turkey have angered Austria, or if I can persuade Austria that those two are trying to eliminate Austria, maybe Austria will throw the match to me! I can at least try. If Austria was betrayed by Italy and Turkey, this could be the opening I've been waiting for.
For the last few turns, I said that I stopped messaging my rivals because I couldn't think of anything to say to them that would help me (even just to trick them). Finally, though, I sense an opportunity in the Italian and Turkish attack on Tunis. I'm ready to try.
One last thing: I could have conquered Berlin if I had had the guts to attack! Shoot. Oh well. I have nobody to blame but myself on these endgame errors. Maybe I'm not as good as I sometimes think I am.
Final Thoughts
It doesn't matter what I build.
Whatever I build will have no effect on the outcome of this match.
There's no reason for me to build an army; I have enough armies everywhere they are needed. I could maybe use one more army in the center, but my army currently positioned in Norway can fulfill that role. Furthermore, I need to move all my western fleets into the Mediterranean immediately, and that includes backfilling Mid-Atlantic Ocean with English Channel. So if I built an army, I wouldn't be able to convoy it.
An additional fleet also won't matter, because my fleets at Mid-Atlantic Ocean and English Channel are already enough to saturate my position. But I'll build a fleet because it's at least possible to move the fleet.
And to be clear, I don't really think I can solo win at this point. It's nice that Austria thinks that it's somehow possible for me to solo, but I suspect that Austria's expression is a product of inexperience. Italy and Turkey are extremely close to having all of the necessary stalemate line positions. Turkey seems to know what to do and can probably coach Italy if Italy does not.
I think that what this match will really come down to is whether I take Berlin or not. That is to say, whether I end the game with 16 centers or 17 centers. It's worth it to me to fight hard for the 17th center, since each conquered center is worth more points than the last (because we are playing sum-of-squares scoring). I am kicking myself that I didn't take Berlin when I had the chance last turn, since if I had done so then maybe this match would be over and I could take a much-needed break!