What Do I Want To Accomplish This Turn?

In order to think strategically, I first imagine what I need to do in order to win. Then, working backwards from that victory condition, I decide what I need to do presently in order to make that winning scenario more likely to come true. So let's start with how I might win.

To reach 18 and win, I'll need to conquer all 3 of the following centers (listed in order of how easy I think they will be to conquer).

• Marseilles
  • Of the three, Marseilles is by far the easiest center for me to take. Next turn, I could move Spain to Marseilles (with support from Burgundy) or move Burgundy to Marseilles (with support from Spain). Italy has the ability to counter Burgundy-to-Marseilles by moving the Italian fleet as Western Med to Spain (cutting support). However, Italy does not have the ability to counter Spain-to-Marseilles; even if Italy attempted a counter-play (Marseilles to Spain supported by Western Med; the two supported moves would cancel out), I can counter-counter that play by poking Italy's fleet at Western Mediterranean Sea with my fleet at North Africa or Mid-Atlantic Ocean. So that means I can guarantee that I conquer Marseilles, if I want to.
  • Please note that I haven't made up my mind on whether I should make the attack that guarantees I take Marseilles next turn. There other other strategic and tactical things to weigh, like the best way to block Italy's retreat and whether I need to hedge against my fleet at North Africa getting destroyed. I'm simply noting that I can guarantee Marseilles to myself if I want to, which necessarily makes this center the easiest to conquer.
• Berlin
  • It is possible to set up a southern stalemate line that runs through Berlin, and I expect Turkey to try to set up that stalemate line. If Turkey gets into those positions, then Berlin will be beyond my reach and that will be the end of my solo win attempt. However, setting up a southern stalemate line that runs through Berlin is usually no simple task. Austria, Italy, and Turkey will need to occupy almost every location in the "no-man's land" area with armies. If I recall the stalemate line formation correctly, they need to have armies in Tyrolia, Bohemia, Silesia, Prussia, Berlin (of course), Livonia and Moscow. Because Austria has to disband 2 units this turn (likely Tyrolia and Bohemia), I have a few turns to make some guesses before my rivals set up this line.
  • Looking carefully at the map, I think my best chance of setting up a breakthrough is for me to get a unit into Livonia, the territory which has the fewest nearby available enemy units (it looks relatively easy for Italy and Turkey to fill in Tyrolia and Bohemia). If Turkey is able to place an army at Warsaw, Livonia, and Moscow, that will set up a stalemate position (because I'll only be able to attack Livonia with units at Baltic Sea, Gulf of Bothnia, and St. Petersburg). So if I'm going to break into Livonia, that means I'll have to get my three units in position before Turkey.
    • Here's the fastest way I could set up to attack Livonia:
      • Move North Sea to Denmark this Spring, then to Baltic Sea in the Autumn. Meanwhile, I'll move Denmark to Sweden (to get it out of the way). On the coming Spring or Autumn turns, I can move my fleet currently at Baltic Sea to Gulf of Bothnia. That sets up fleets in Baltic Sea and Gulf of Bothnia.
      • Meanwhile, I'll build an army at Edinburgh and convoy that army into Norway using Norwegian Sea in the Spring. In Autumn, I'll try to move that army to St. Petersburg. Because there's a chance that my move to St. Petersburg could be bounced out by Turkey, I should probably move my fleet into Gulf of Bothnia on the Spring turn (so that the fleet can lend a support-move order into St. Petersburg in Autumn).
      • Thus, at the start of Spring 1908, I'll probably have all my units lined up to make a double-supported move into Livonia.
    • If Turkey is smart enough to anticipate these moves, Turkey could shut them down. All Turkey has to do is move Warsaw to Livonia, Ukraine to Moscow, and Galicia to Warsaw. From those positions, Turkey will have a set up a stalemate line that incorporates Berlin. Is there a counter-play for me?
      • I could move Baltic Sea to Livonia. Assuming that Turkey uses Prussia to support-hold Berlin (the safer move), Warsaw would move to Livonia without support (thus our units would bounce and the move to backfill Warsaw would also fail). However, I can't stop Turkey from moving Ukraine to Moscow, so on the Autumn turn Turkey could make a supported move to Livonia.
      • I would still want to move North Sea to Denmark, so I would move Denmark to Sweden and North Sea to Denmark. On the Autumn turn, I could move the fleets from Denmark and Baltic Sea to Baltic Sea and Gulf of Bothnia. My army at Norway would have to move to St. Petersburg unsupported and I'd just have to hope that it gets in.
      • So, nope, there's no counter-play for me. Successfully bouncing Turkey out of Livonia might buy me one turn, but I need two turns to line up my forces around Livonia.
    • In sum, if Turkey is smart enough to make the necessary moves to stop my conquest of Berlin, then that's that. If Turkey knows what to do, I won't be getting Berlin.
      • This does not extinguish my hope. I'm still going to fight for Berlin. I have achieved solo wins many times in the past simply because the defending players did not understand what positions they needed to occupy in order to form a stalemate line. Although experienced players know the proper stalemate line positions for the situation facing them (or at least have the sense to look up possible stalemate positions online), inexperienced players do not. Truth be told, I think Turkey is an experienced player and probably knows what to do here, but there's still a chance that Turkey does not, so I'll press on.
• Tunis
  • To set up the easiest and most-common stalemate line that runs through Tunis, the defending players need:
    • A unit in Tunis and a fleet in Ionian Sea. The fleet in Ionian Sea can support-hold Tunis without the possibility of being poked. An enemy in North Africa and Western Mediterranean Sea cannot overcome this defend. The enemy must first control Tyrrhenian Sea. Thus...
    • A fleet in Tyrrhenian Sea (taking up space) and a fleet at Tuscany to support-hold the fleet in Tyrrhenian Sea. Enemy fleets in Western Mediterranean Sea and Gulf of Lyon cannot overcome that defense.
    • A unit in Piedmont (taking up space) so that the enemy can't overcome the defense at Tuscany/Tyrrhenian Sea, and an army at Venice to support-hold that unit (so that Piedmont can't be overpowered by a supported attack using Marseilles and Gulf of Lyon). Tyrolia can be poked by Munich, so it is important that the army be placed in Venice.
  • Italy/Austria/Turkey could move their units into these positions immediately on the coming Spring turn, and there's nothing I can do to stop this. Thus, Tunis seems like the hardest center for me to get.
    • In order for me to get Tunis, I need the defending players to make a mistake. For example, although Italy could set up a perfect stalemate line by immediately moving Marseilles to Piedmont and Trieste to Venice, perhaps Italy will (foolishly) try to defend Marseilles or is afraid that Turkey will take Italian centers and won't make the necessary army moves.
    • I'm especially intrigued about the possibility that Italy will try to defend Marseilles, which could result in Italy sending fleets into the "no-man's land" area that I could surround and destroy. That would give me the temporary momentum I need to seize Tunis. I've played many games in the past where a player had the ability to easily form a stalemate line, but instead made unnecessary, risky moves (hence, foolish) to venture out beyond the stalemate line, only for their units to be surrounded and destroyed (effectively sending those units back to the home centers).
• Combining my analysis of the fights for Berlin and for Tunis, I perceive a small tactical opportunity. Italy needs to put an army at Piedmont and Venice, but the defending alliance also needs to put armies into Tyrolia and Bohemia. Italy, having only 3 armies, does not have the ability to supply all the necessary units. That means Turkey has to move at least one army into Bohemia or Tyrolia. Turkey can't immediately put any units into Tyrolia, and the unit Turkey can immediately put into Bohemia is Galicia. Moving Galicia to Warsaw is necessary for Turkey to set up an immediate defense of Livonia (as I explained earlier). That means I might have an opportunity to slow down Italy/Turkey from moving into position at Bohemia, or even to slip into Tyrolia or Bohemia.
  • Thinking like this is critical during endgame. Towards the end of a Diplomacy match, all the different spheres of battle blur together as the players struggle to form a stalemate line. Here, I've discovered a small crack in the possibility of stalemating me because Turkey and Italy don't have enough units in position to immediately form a complete line. This means there will be a turn or two where I could out-guess Turkey before all of Turkey's armies get into position. It's not much, it really isn't -- but it's something. Even if I can exploit this small tactical issue, I'll still need one of my rivals to make mistake if I'm going to win.

What about Moscow? Sometimes, England can win with Moscow as the 18th center. But in this particular match, I can't see any way that I could conquer Moscow. I barely think I'll be able to get into Livonia. Moscow is out of the question. Turkey is too strong and consolidated.

Any Diplomatic Ideas?

I just don't have any. Maybe a better player than myself could come up with something to trick the other players or to encourage them to throw me the win, but nothing is coming to mind for me right now. Austria wants to get into the draw, Turkey seems too conservative, and Italy probably won't read anything I say.

If I think of something later, I'll at least have preserved what credibility I have left by not making unnecessary, transparent attempts at deception.