Messages with Germany #1

Well, I’m glad Austria and Turkey piled onto Russia. 

I’m glad I guessed correctly with that move to Silesia; it might have been disastrous to have Russia in Silesia and Austria in Bohemia. The move by Russia to Livonia is kind of weird, but I’m not complaining. 

Italy’s move to Tyrolia is concerning. I wasn’t warned about it, and I’m reasonably certain there was a scheme to get the 3 of them all adjacent to Munich. My immediate plan is to build an army in Berlin. Other than that, I have a lot to think about. 

I hope Russia destroys that fleet, but if not, we can easily keep it contained, though unfortunately we’ll need to devote at least 4 units to that task. Not ideal.

Darn it,i really tried to bait Russia into bouncing me at Norway. I really did. I was getting used to everything going my way.

I’m glad that Austria and Turkey helped us out. That makes things much, much easier. Now the question is: what will they do next? Turkey is undeniably the strongest of our 3 serious rivals since turkey controls 6 centers and also is a corner power. Will turkey and Austria move on Italy next, or will turkey and Austria turn against each other?

It would be really foolish if Russia to keep the fleet at skaggerak, but not that difficult for us to contain.

Here’s the main thing we have to decide at this moment: do you want me to build at London or do you want me to postpone the build? If I build a fleet at London, I can block North Sea if Russia keeps that fleet. If Russia doesn’t, then I move it to English channel. However, I can also guard North Sea with Norway if necessary, or if Russia blows up the fleet at Ska then just convoy in autumn as planned from Norwegian Sea. The sole reason for holding off the build is to maintain our alliance, but we can afford it.

Either way, next year I should cede belgium if it looks like I can capture any new centers.

Definitely build that fleet, my friend. I’ll compose a longer response later

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #1

Germany and I are on the same page here. It is apparent that Turkey, Austria, and Italy are cooperating against us, and we need to think hard about how to deal with that and choose our moves accordingly. I think Germany senses this and knows that holding back a build is too risky for our alliance.

If I refuse to attack Germany and the Austria/Italy/Turkey alliance refuses to in-fight, then the game will reach a draw with astonishing speed. Most likely, Germany and I will not be able to conquer another center; our choice will be between supporting other powers into centers like Moscow and Portugal or supporting the near-dead France and Russia just to deny those centers to that triple alliance.

More than anything, I simply want to prevent those 3 powers from working together. If they start fighting, anything could happen (in a good way). But if I cannot get them to fight, then I'll have to start weighing the value of backstabbing Germany.

I'm glad I got Germany's express consent to build my fleet in London. I suppose Germany anticipated this and made peace with it.

Exchange with Russia

Thank you - I appreciate that.

As I suspected, you got hit hard by Turkey and Austria. You do have some ability to linger on until the draw if you fight hard to defend Warsaw and Moscow. You and I reached the end of our conflict, so I’ll give you the space and help needed to try to fight on — especially since you didn’t spite me when you had the chance.

Help me ****[censored -- YBB] Germany up, and I will do anything you ask. Not bothered about getting in a draw, as it's sos anyway.

Understood. Do you have any specific tactical ideas for how to accomplish that?

My understanding right now is that Germany wants very badly to conquer Warsaw and Moscow, but Turkey and Austria already agreed with each other to take those centers. Blocking Germany from getting into Warsaw and Moscow could be the best way to penalize Germany. I think if you keep your fleet at Skagerrak, what will happen is that I'll help Germany surround and destroy your fleet (and meanwhile Germany will try to nab Warsaw). So my suggestion is that you keep some combination of your armies (probably Livonia and Ukraine, unless you believe Italy will support Bohemia into Munich). I'm open to other ideas though.

Secret Thoughts re: Russia

Probably my effort to use reverse psychology on Russia backfired, so I might as well just pass it off like I was being sincere the whole time.

Moving forward, I want to persuade Russia to disband the fleet at Skagerrak if possible. If Russia keeps that fleet, then 1) it will be a nuisance to me; and 2) Russia will be throwing away Warsaw and Moscow to the other powers (which I don't want to happen).

I tried to think of everything I could say to convince Russia that keeping those armies is the most anti-German move available. In reality, I don't think that's true -- the worst way Russia could punish Germany would be to harass Germany with that fleet for 1 year while giving away Warsaw and Moscow. But maybe Russia will be persuaded by my lies.

Messages with Turkey #1

Now THAT is a turn my friend. Well done.

If you don’t mind my asking, can we coordinate a future plan?

If your main ally is Italy and you plan to turn on Austria, then maybe you and I should attack Germany and Austria at around the same time so that neither of those two powers can profit from the attacks.

But if you plan on hitting Italy next, then maybe I should leave Germany alone and pick at whatever Italy gains vs France around the time you attack. Do you feel me?

Hello and thank you for your messages. I haven't had the opportunity to respond until now. I don't know where to start so I'll just dive in at random.

Obviously, France and Russia have failed to find any dependable friends. England and Germany have openly admitted their alliance and this has caused enough consternation on the other half of the board for another alliance to materialize there, namely, I/A/T. Of course, my cooperation with Italy has been limited to an exchange of messages whereas Austria has actively helped me against Russia. 

I certainly see the benefits of forming a close bond with you. If everything goes according to plan our units will be adjacent at the end of next year as I plan on taking Moscow. Austria will take Warsaw and the elimination of Russia will be complete. If this is not in line with your plans then we need to discuss that.

Regarding attacking Germany and Austria: we should keep that in mind as we develop our strategies and plan our moves. This will not happen for at least two turns, though, as there's a real danger of a central alliance forming at that point. Austria and Italy are close and it is plain for everyone to see that Germany is basically under attack from them. I promised Austria Bulgaria as payment for his support to Rumania and I haven't found a way to wiggle out of that one without him bringing war on me.

For now, I would think the best strategy would be for me to move on Moscow as you focus on Iberia while we limit the growth of Germany and Austria the best we can. With Austria and Germany at war there will be opportunities for us to benefit.

If Germany and I maintain our alliance, and you, Italy and Austria stick together, then the game will end in a stalemate in just 2 more years because we're almost all in stalemate positions. The only meaningful decisions will be whether Italy supports me into Portugal as promised and whether Austria successful gets into Warsaw before Germany.

I'd like to avoid that endgame. I can't stand the thought of ending the match with a mere 7 or 8 points after working so hard to get off to a good start.

I have a suspicion, given our exchange of press, how neither of us got attacked, and how both of us ended with a bunch of SCs in merely 1902, that we might be the strongest players in this match (Germany is enthusiastic, but is benefitting immensely from my coaching). That gives me hope that we can lay out a long-term plan to drag this match out much further. If you and I cooperate, we can easily end this game with 12+ points each. Because we are England and Turkey (and only for that reason), I won't rule out playing for a 2-way draw (or something close to that).

So to that end, of course it's in my interest to see you take Moscow. In fact, I wish I had my army in place to support your army already. As it is right now, all I can really do is wish you the best (it'll take me at least 3 turns to move an army into St. Pete, if I even bother).

As far as it goes with Austria taking Warsaw, there's nothing I can do to stop you if you want Austria to have it, but is that really advisable? Wouldn't you rather scheme on a way to prevent Austria from getting more builds without giving away your intentions? (Certainly, I have schemed on keeping Warsaw and Moscow out of the hands of Germany -- I'm doing so right now!) By your message, you agree that we should figure out how to limit Austria's growth -- I agree in principle, but maybe we can come up with a more concrete idea? I'm trying to measure the tone of this message, which is difficult because it's written instead of spoken, but please understand that these are not rhetorical, sarcastic, or otherwise inscere question -- I'm sincerely trying to converse with you about our possible plans.

As far as Italy goes, it seems that Italy cannot be stopped from taking Marseilles, Spain, or both in 1903. Italy has promised to support me into Portugal, but I can't see any reason why Italy would keep that promise. Italy sends me almost no messages, and has no objective reason to prefer that I have Portugal over France. Are you comfortable with Italy getting 2 builds this year? I'm considering offering Portugal to Italy as well just to make something happen.

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey #1

I'm keeping up my strategy of charming the players who I want to ally me. As England, I want to keep Turkey to me as close as possible. So I make sure to begin by complimenting Turkey for a strong turn (it was an impressive turn).

Without pushing the idea too hard, I am trying to get Turkey to come around to my way of thinking that Italy and/or Austria need to be attacked. I don't even hint at the idea that I think Turkey wants to be allied to both Austria and Italy -- instead, I'm asking Turkey whether Austria or Italy is the "main ally" and which one he wants to attack. I leave the choice up to Turkey, since I don't actually have a preference; I just want to shake things up.

Included with my question is sort of an offer for what I can do for Turkey -- if Turkey attacks Italy, I can weak Italy from the west; if Turkey attacks Austria, I can attack Germany so that more centers go to Turkey.

Turkey's statements about France and Russia being goner, which alliances exist and why, is all vapid. The Italy/Austria alliance (or at least, a non-aggression agreement) has existed since the first turn of the game, etc. There's also almost nothing I can do about Turkey's plan to conquer Moscow, since my upcoming army build is at least 3 moves away from St. Petersburg.

I'm bringing up everything I can think of to get Turkey on my side. Turkey has sent me thoughtful and long messages, so I think a long message from me will be effective.

I'm not asking Turkey for anything. I'm not asking Turkey to attack Italy, nor to attack Austria. I'm just trying to build rapport. If Turkey trusts me, then Turkey will attack Austria or Italy. If Turkey doesn't trust me, then who knows what Turkey will do. The trust-building is most important because that will eventually give rise to the outcome I want.

To show Turkey that I'm thinking about our mutual interest and to build rapport:

• I pointed out how it would be a poor outcome if Turkey and I refused to backstab our allies. My point about the stalemate line is true and should sound persuasive.
• I complimented Turkey and said that I think we're the strongest 2 players. I had to take a pot-shot at Germany, and Germany doesn't really deserve that; Germany seems to have roughly equal ability to my own. But by insulting Germany and taking credit for Germany's ideas, Turkey may take my offer to backstab Germany more seriously (all else being equal, players like to attack rivals who they hold in contempt).
• Of course, I held out the 2-way draw idea. It's a far more realistic offer to Turkey than to Germany.
• I plainly stated that I want Turkey to control Moscow. It's not a true statement; I want to control Moscow myself. But there's virtually nothing I can do about Turkey's plan, so I might as well just state that I am in favor of it; what do I have to lose by saying it's a good idea?

My advice to Turkey about not cooperating with Austria is just small talk. If Turkey intends to attack Austria, powering up Austria is a bad idea. But on the other hand, I'd like Austria to be powered up. So who cares? It's not like I can really affect this deal.

Similarly, my points about Italy are also just small talk. It's obvious that Italy can capture those centers. I'm just trying to fish more information out of Turkey about Turkey's relationship with Italy. Turkey clearly favors Italy by those messages, but is it true and if so why?

My statement that I might support Italy to Portugal "just to make something happen" is....true!!. I'm really thinking about offering that to Italy. If Italy gets Portugal, Spain and Marseilles -- especially all at once -- then Italy will get a bunch of builds near Austria before Austria has a chance to capture Warsaw. It could destabilize the whole board. It could scare Turkey.

And get this: I might have an easier time kicking Italy out of Iberia if I go through with that plan. Why? Well if Italy refuses to support me to Portugal, then there will be 4 units blocking my plans (the French fleet at Portugal, the 2 Italian fleets, and the Italian army at Piedmont). But if Italy capture Portugal, Spain and Marseilles all at once, then there will be merely 3 units blocking my attack -- the new Italian builds will be at least 2 moves away from being used for defense, and Italy might be persuaded to use them against Austria or Turkey.

Messages with Austria

Well here we are — Russia is toast. I’m more than a little surprised that you helped Turkey take two Russian centers. I’m not upset; just surprised!

Is your expectation that you’re going to grow by attacking the remaining Russian centers?

It was better in theory than it turned out to be in reality....

Yeah? I'm willing to talk to you about what happened if you want to. I consider Austria to be England's natural ally, so I'm willing to freely share information with you, give you tactical advice, and so on.

By the look of the board, Turkey is now extremely powerful -- probably much more powerful than you are, since Turkey is a corner power. And Italy is about to capture at least 2 centers from France (Marseilles and Spain), and I don't think anyone could stop Italy from doing that even if they wanted to. Even if you conquer Warsaw, that's does NOT create a defensible position for you between Italy and Turkey -- don't you think they'll give you the squeeze as soon as you allow Italy to reach 6 points and Turkey reaches 7?

Secret Thoughts re: Austria

Austria's message is nonsense. Austria straightforwardly helped Turkey attack Russia and made zero moves that had even a possibility of conquering a center. Given my assessment that helping Turkey is contrary to Austria's interests, that Austria helped Turkey for apparently nothing in return, and Austria's sparse press, I must reach the conclusion that Austria is an inexperienced or poor player. There's little else I can conclude from the information available to me.

I think I need to protect Austria from Turkey, possibly by advising Austria on how to make better moves. Or something! I have to figure out how I can intervene here. I want Turkey to do well, but not faster than I do; I want Turkey to break through against Austria around the time that I am trying trying to solo win (so as to create pandemonium in the center of the map right when I need it).

Messages with Italy #1

Aha! I think you have been misled my friend, since Austria just helped Turkey take 2 centers from Russia and did nothing against Germany.

It turns out that I unexpectedly get 3 builds this turn and I have to figure out how to build them in such a way as to not offend my allies. (I expected Russia to bounce me out of Norway)

I know we’re a turn out from our joint attack on France, but since there is o my so much time in a day, are you okay with going over the specifics for how we can put you into Marsiles and Spain and me in Portugal? If you and I coordinate our moves correctly, we will control all 3 centers at the end of 1903. France only has 2 units to defend with, so it should be straightforward.

I don’t want to pressure you or be overbearing, so if you’re willing to talk it over with me, why don’t you first tell me your idea for how we should attack France and then I’ll tell you if I think it should be changed?

Pie-Mar 

GoL S Pie-Mar

WMed-Spa

MAO S WMed-Spa

xxx

Spa S MAO-Por

MAO-Por

This looks good

Secret Thoughts re: Italy #1

I don't really think that Italy was misled by Austria/Russia -- I think Italy knew Austria was going to attack Russia and lied to me last turn to further their smokescreen. Italy moved into Tyrolia to position against Germany, almost certainly.

However, there's no reason for me to call Italy a liar. As with all messaging, it's usually best to not call players out for lying to you unless you can think of a specific reason why calling them out will accomplish something.

At this point, I don't really trust Italy. Italy has sent me few messages and trusts Austria and Turkey too much.

By the looks of the board, Italy is certain to conquer either Marseilles or Spain this coming turn (something I've been trying to prevent) or possibly both (depending, perhaps, on what France does). I can't really pressure Italy to help me take Portugal prior to Italy's conquest of Spain (I have too many centers, and it's harder to capture Portugal first)...but there's also little reason for me to expect Italy to keep a promise to support my fleet into Portugal once Italy has Spain; it'll be too obvious that I intend to overpower Italy after that.

It's possible that I could trick Italy, since Italy does not seem that skilled to me. But I rate my chances at less than 50%. Instead, I think I need to focus on damage control and preventing Italy from consolidating a hold on Marseilles and Spain.

Messages with Italy #2

That is an excellent plan -- if Germany moves to Burgundy and I move to Gascony, then Marseilles will be immediately destroyed and Spain will be forced to retreat to Portugal. Then we capture Portugal, and that's that. I can definitely agree to this plan -- but I'd like to talk to you more.

We've sent only very short messages to each other this game, so I don't really have a sense of your character or your long-term plans. We have a lot of time this turn and the next to exchange some messages -- are you willing to discuss long-term plans with me more?

So far this match, you have been very honorable towards me and kept your promise to attack France. This has been very beneficial to me and I am more than happy to support you into Spain in return for this help. It's about time you got some builds.

But going forward, what will you do next? It's evident from your move to Tyrolia that you are aligned with Austria against Germany. Is that so? Do you consider yourself strongly allied to Austria, or can I count on your to use your new builds to attack Austria as your next target?

Or are you worried about Turkey, who will be getting several more builds this turn, likely including at least one new fleet? If you have an arrangement with Austria to fight Turkey, then why did Austria help Turkey get 2 more centers this turn?

I have to ask, because I am a little concerned that you might decide not to keep your word about supporting my fleet into Portugal. After all, I have a lot of SCs already. I'm worried that if you are allied to both Austria and to Turkey, your logical strategy has to be to send all your new builds against *me* and try to break into MAO, getting Portugal for yourself.

Just so we're clear, I don't think you can successfully attack me; I'm building 2 more fleets this turn so that I can support hold MAO (or Portugal, should you keep your word and support me in after I help you take Spain). By the time you'd get enough fleets into place to push me out of MAO, I could line up more fleets into a stalemate position.

Now, I don't want to have to defend against you. I want to capture Portugal and turn on Germany. Once I have Portugal, there's nowhere I can get any more SCs other than by attacking Germany. I'll never get past STP and I'll never get past MAO. So I want very badly to be in position where I feel like I'm safe in the West so that I can turn around and lay into Germany, hopefully reaching 11 or 12 SCs before the game ends.

So if you tell me that you want to attack Austria or Turkey next and have a tactical plan for how you want to do that, then I don't think we need to discuss much more. I trust you to keep your word about Portugal and use your two builds for that fight. But if you're staying away from fighting those two, then what are you going to do with your builds?

So here's where my offer comes in: even if you are not willing to fight Austria or Turkey, I am STILL willing to help you finish off France and get Marseilles and Spain for yourself because I am hoping that you will fight with me against Germany.

Honestly you probably won't get a big number of centers from attacking Germany, but you'll at least get something out of it; I can definitely help you capture Paris and Munich at a minimum. I am also hoping that if you capture Paris and Munich, you will get even more builds, have an even stronger position, and maybe you'll finally be willing to attack Austria or Turkey, haha. I'm not willing to attack Germany alone, but with your help (and maybe Austria's) I am sure the attack will be successful.

As you can see, I'm willing to do quite a lot to keep us from fighting a war, mostly because I think it will just waste our turns. I am absolutely certain that I can hold you off at MAO, and I am just as certain that I will never be able to break past MAO to attack your position. If we fight, our fleets will just stare each other down until either the match ends or you get backstabbed (and we might not even finish off France at Portugal, which would be a shame).

Okay, boy oh boy, that was a lot to say. But I feel like I have to play catch up with you since we didn't say much to each other so far. Please let me know what you think. And one last reminder, I agree to your deal no matter what: I will support WMS to Spain this turn in return for your promise to support MAO to Portugal in Autumn. The reason I sent this huge message is to earn your trust so that you will want to follow through with the deal, and to improve our short-term deal into a long term alliance if at all possible.

Sorry for just replying with a bunch of moves last time, it wasn't the best reply, but I was in a rush.

To be honest, you're the one who I have never thought about attacking, our border after attacking France is terribly small and I have to manuever fleets to West Med and North Africa to do so, and even that would put us in a stalemate, not my ideal choice.

Austria and Turkey have been good allies so far, but they're too close and I fear them coming together to stab me.

I'll be attacking Germany under your lead if you want me too

My friend, thank you for your succinct reply. I was hoping that you were already thinking that it didn't make sense for us to fight, but I just wanted to make sure. We are thinking exactly the same way, which makes me glad.

This coming turn, I will move Brest to Gascony and use MAO to support WMS to Spain. I'm very confident that Germany will move Paris to Burgundy as well. That means the French army at Marseilles will be immediately destroyed and the French fleet at Spain will have to retreat to Portugal. On the following Autumn turn, you can support-hold your position to ensure that you make your captures and support my fleet into Portugal with Spain. That will end France once and for all, net us builds, and solidify our mutual understanding into a real alliance. I'm excited!

As far as attacking Germany goes, I think that should come the year after at the earliest -- that way we have our new builds and the opportunity to see what Austria and Turkey are really up to before making a hasty move. Do you agree?

Secret Thoughts re: Italy #2

Once again, I find myself in a situation where a gigantic message is the only way I can convey everything I need my quiet rival to think about.

Italy's proposal is extremely strong, tactically. Assuming that Italy keeps that promise, then France will be finished off in 1903. Notice how I slipped in a casual statement that characterizes Brest and Paris moving towards Italy as something beneficial to Italy (by saying that the units are there to destroy the French army on the Spring turn).

I of course knew that I should agree to the deal no matter what, but I keep spinning my head around and around and around on whether I should actually honor it. I spent maybe 30 minutes scheming out different scenarios where I had to trick both France and Italy into making different combinations of moves, but in the end all I can hope to accomplish with that is, at most, leaving France in control of Portugal and Spain and Italy in control of Marseilles. That's all I can think of accomplishing by not following through on Italy's offer, and that seems even worse to me than handing Spain over to Italy. Why would that be such a bad outcome?

1. If France has Portugal and Spain, and Italy has Marseilles + fleets in Gulf of Lyons and Western Mediterranean Sea, then if France and Italy unite, their defensive position is virtually unbreakable. Even if Italy were eventually attacked from behind, I would still be several turns away from finishing off France (it's very difficult to dig out a player who controls both Portugal and Spain).
2. I'll have backstabbed Italy and France in the first couple of years, and for what? Acting backstab-happy for little gain is a bad strategy.
3. It would be too obvious to everyone that I'm solely loyal to Germany. I need Turkey and Austria to think that I'll cooperate with other people.

So after a huge investment in mental energy and time (I'm not kidding, I played out all these scenarios in my mind while in the car, the shower and so forth) looking for a way to trick Italy somehow to my own profit, I have concluded that I can't come up with anything. I should just help Italy and hope for the best. Either Italy supports me into Portugal next Autumn or Italy doesn't. I can't force Italy to do it; I only have my words. So what have I got to lose, eh?

Once I made the decision to work with Italy -- truly work with Italy; no tricks -- I realized I needed to make up for last time in building up rapport. So in addition to making lots of compliments to Italy (saying how smart the tactical plan is, even though it's pretty obvious actually; saying how pleased I am that Italy was truthful about wanting to attack France with me), I decided to put my back into a realistic plan for how we could work together.

First, I questioned Italy on my read of the board. Clearly Italy trusts Austria and Turkey, so who's going to be attacked next? If not Austria or Turkey, then who? My concern here is genuine -- I genuinely think Italy could be planning to break into MAO and attack me next. Italy might have been persuaded to do this by Austria, Turkey, or both, or might have made up the idea independently.

Because I don't have such a good read on Italy, I'm not sure if Italy has actually been totally sincere with me the whole time and was just going to support me into Portugal as a matter of course. If so, I may have opened a can of worms here about what Italy will do next, or even seeded Italy with the idea of attack me. If so, oops.

But if Italy has been foolishly thinking that somehow I can be attacked, Italy has another think coming: I have more than enough power to block off Italy at MAO. Perhaps by pointing this out, Italy will realize MAO is a dead end this game. (And as a bonus, I informed Italy that I am building 2 more fleets in advance -- bolstering my credibility and softening the danger of Italy believing that these fleets are for attacking Italy.)

I'm being totally sincere here that I'll accept Italy's promise to attack literally anyone else other than me. I do think that is in Italy's best interest, so maybe Italy will think I'm being reasonable.

My offer to attack Germany is a mix of truths and falsehoods. It's true that I won't be able to grow without attacking Germany. But it's not true that I'll attack Germany just because Italy agrees to do so. I guess I'm sort of proposing to attack Germany as an open-minded idea, and to show Italy that I'm not as loyal to Germany as it appears (something that's valuable whether or not I am in fact loyal to Germany).

Ultimately, here's what I'm really hoping to accomplish: I want Italy to support me into Portugal. Dang it, maybe that's a very mercenary or greedy attitude of me, but that's truly all I really hope to accomplish. If Italy believes that I am an honest player who wants to make fair bargains and will help attack Germany (or give Italy the space to attack someone else), then Italy will be much more likely to follow through and support MAO to Portugal.

If I convey to Italy that there are long-term prospects to our relationship, and Italy has any sense at all, then Italy won't stab me over just a single-fricken-center (even if I do have more SCs than Italy at the start of next year). And now that I find myself writing this point, I wonder whether I just wasted a lot of time trying to convince Italy to do what Italy intended to do all along.

As far as Italy's response goes, it's not very long but I am delighted to receive the message. I believe Italy that Italy has never had any real intention to attack me. After all, it is unrealistic for Italy to break into Mid-Atlantic Ocean when I am completely unchallenged for naval supremacy in the north.

I also believe Italy that Italy is worried about an Austria/Turkey alliance, and that Italy would attack Germany at my direction. Italy seems agreeable to simple partition deals. If Italy faithfully supports me into Portugal in Autumn 1903, I might consider Italy a good ally and hold off any attack until the best possible opportunity.

I made sure to send Italy a positive response, and to reiterate our precise tactical plan for how to proceed in 1903. In my opinion, it is worth mentioning move lists several times so that players don't forget or feel like they can pretend to forget. I'm also hoping that if I seem fixated on this plan, Italy won't consider asking for anything else.

I asked Italy to hold off attacking Germany as a smokescreen for how I will still be working with Germany in 1903. Even if I want to backstab Germany in Autumn 1903, I probably do not want to tell anyone about it (so that nobody can leak my plan, if I make one).

Secret Thoughts re: France

I have nothing left to say to France at this point. If I thought I could get value out of helping France hold out in Portugal and Spain, I might say something. But because I don't, I won't.

Messages with Turkey #2

I do not expect or want both alliances to hold until the end of the game. My aim is to work towards a three-way draw while I look out for opportunities to stab the other two for a solo. This keeps everyone involved working towards a common goal while requiring them to take care not to make themselves vulnerable.

Two-way draws are notoriously difficult to enforce. I think I've managed it once and there must have been special circumstances for one not to stab the other.

There will be a fight over Warsaw as I think Russia will disband Livonia and Ukraine. I would welcome this outcome as it leaves me pretty much in control of Moscow and it will slow down Germany a little bit.

I will not attack Austria in 1903 unless some very special circumstances present themselves. The main reason is that Italy and Austria seem to be close and I cannot expect much distraction for Austria on his western borders. I will use the time to take Moscow and solidify my position in the south.

Except for talking to him, I cannot influence Italy's actions directly. Of course, I would rather that he had none than two new builds, but, as you point out yourself, it is not easy to prevent his taking Marseilles and Spain. Sure, if you are ready to send a statement then you can move MAO - North Africa, support Spain or cut the support from WME. 

If France and Russia are eliminated I think the most logical way forward is for England, Turkey and Germany to cooperate. Italy and Austria are strong when they push away from each other and they really do not have the need for a third wheel during the mid-game.

I want to keep these communication lines open so we can figure out how to keep pressing rather than just watch the centre powers pick up more SCs.

Understood. I will keep in mind your offer to play for a 3-way draw. I think a plan to reach a draw with Germany is workable, and I'd like to do it. We need to keep talking about it, as you say.

Right now we're (both of us) working against such a plan. If you cede Bulgaria to Austria and support Austria into Warsaw, and I support Italy to Spain and Marseilles, eliminating those two may be a rather long and difficult road.

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey #2

I'm just going to flatly ignore Turkey's bald statement of wanting to get a solo win, as well as Turkey's criticism of 2-way draws. I don't really know what Turkey hopes to accomplish by saying that to me. Maybe Turkey wants me to think that my propaganda efforts are a waste of time. But in all honesty, this comes across to me as overly frank and mercenary. I want my allies to seduce me with promises, even if I know that they probably can't or won't keep them all.

It's such a blatant message that I am considering passing it to Austria or Italy. They may not believe me that Turkey has said such a thing (it might seem too crass to be believable), but it might make them anxious. I'm willing to try a lot of things to break up their cooperation.

Turkey's statements about Warsaw, Austria and Italy are all just a waste of time. I can ignore this.

Turkey's stated desire to play for a 3-way draw with England and Germany is far more interesting. That's a realistic path to a draw, and a realistic path for me to get to a solo win. Turkey will definitely wind up the dominant partner in such an alliance, since we will be eliminating all 3 of Turkey's neighbors while Germany and I still have to watch out for each other. But it's an interesting offer either way. I can also agree to such a plan in principal and at no cost to myself while I wait to see where my true advantage lies later on.