Another Turn, Another Success

Looks like things went my way.

Last turn, I focused on perfecting the tactics of my assault on France. It was well worth the effort; everything went according to plan.

First of all, Germany and I developed and executed an excellent plan. We destroyed the French army at Picardy, leaving France with a mere 2 units in the middle of 1902.
Second, I drilled deep into my mental well of creativity and out sprang an apparently-persuasive message to France. I was quite nervous about how bad it might be for me if France moved that fleet to Mid-Atlantic Ocean. However, my gigantic and detailed message seems to have convinced France not do make that move. France never responded to my message, but I suspect France read and followed my advice since France bounced the German army at Burgundy in addition to moving to Spain (which completely matches my suggestions).
Finally, because France followed my advice, France is now positioned to block Italy from capturing any French centers this turn. It is beneficial to me that Italy is unlikely to profit from the destruction of France. Not only do I intend to acquire those French centers myself, but I want Italy to stay weak so that I can overpower Italy later on.

As far as my planned attack on Russia goes, Russia's moves also developed in my favor. I leaked Germany's plan to move the fleet to Baltic Sea to that Russia would move to Sweden, anticipating that Russia would then have no units in place to guard St. Petersburg (thus leaving that center for my taking). Bada-boom, Bada-bing -- Russia moved that fleet as I suggested, and failed to leave a unit in place to guard St. Petersburg as I hoped.

Russia also attacked Germany, which is something that I wanted (to keep Germany loyal to me).

Something worth noting: I leaked the relevant German moves to France and to Russia, the two powers Germany and I are at war with. I fully intend to destroy those powers, so I did not leak the German orders to help my enemies. I also did not leak the orders to retard Germany; Germany is unaffected or even slightly better off because of how I manipulated France and Russia. I leaked those German orders simply to manipulate France and Russia into doing the precise moves I wanted. I wanted France to keep Germany out of Burgundy so that Germany wouldn't feel obligated to help Italy into Marseilles. I wanted Russia to move to Sweden so that I would be able to slip into St. Petersburg in the Autumn. I think what I accomplished last turn in this regard is at the acme of skill in Press Diplomacy. Learn from me.

Other Developments

On the mini-map I included above, you cannot see the failed "support move" order for the Austrian army at Serbia. In the written order log and on the full map, webDiplomacy shows that Austria ordered "The army at Bulgaria support move to Rumania from Bulgaria." I am mystified by this.

I'm unsure what is going on between Russia, Turkey, and Austria. It looks like Austria attacked Russia and expected Turkey to do so as well, but instead Turkey refused to attack Russia even though Turkey could have made a successful, crushing attack (an attack that would have destroyed the Russian fleet at Rumania and gotten a unit into Sevastopol, possibly taking both centers on the Autumn turn). I wish Turkey had made that attack on Russia; Russia would have been virtually destroyed as a result and likely Turkey would have become stronger.

It's too bad that there appears to be no Austria/Russia alliance like I wanted. I guess I'm looking at Austria/Italy and Russia/Turkey alliances, but Russia is about to become debilitated by the attacks from me and Germany.

What Do I Want To Accomplish This Turn?

I simply want to follow through with the plan that Germany and I hatched in Winter 1901: capture Brest, capture St. Petersburg, and allow Germany to capture Sweden.

In the west, I should move Brest to Mid-Atlantic Ocean. I am confident France will allow this because I promised to vacate Brest last turn, and bouncing me would stop that. I can then use my army at Picardy to capture Brest, which I am sure Germany will allow.

In the east, I should move Norway to St. Petersburg (north coast) and Norwegian Sea to Norway. It occurs to me that I might actually be better off if Russia bounces my fleet out of Norway. Why?

I want to build an army at Edinburgh this winter if Germany will tolerate it. England needs to get army builds at some point, and putting an army into St. Petersburg is a legitimate reason to have another army. But then I will have to convoy that army. With no fleets in Norwegian Sea or North Sea, I will have to move my fleet backwards in order to convoy. That means it would actually take me 1 extra turn to get an army to St. Petersburg if I capture Norway.
Getting 3 builds this turn could spook Germany and I'd rather avoid that.

So maybe this sounds counter-intuitive, but I actually want to avoid capturing Norway and instead bounce Russia. There's no way I would risk Russia capturing Norway, so I'd rather capture Norway than let Russia have it -- but if possible, I'd like Russia to bounce me at Norway.

Diplomatic Goals?

I don't think I can influence Austria and Italy. They send me next to zero messages. An Austria/Italy alliance is usually very good for England, and I don't see any need right now to try to break that up. The only bad thing about an Austria/Italy alliance is that Turkey might be hurt in the long run, and Turkey is my most natural ally. But Turkey isn't in immediate danger.

For this turn, I think I should stick to my tactical plan while I wait to acquire more information from the other players. I need my attacks this turn to succeed so I can consolidate my gains and finally catch up with Germany in terms of builds. Because I don't really know what's going on with Austria, Russia, and Turkey, I think I should spend more time figuring out what's going on before trying to manipulate them.

Also FYI: I did not get around to sending my messages until later in the turn. I told the other players that I was going to be late. I edited out those messages for readability reasons.

Global Messages

Russia: Seems unlikely. Notice how England vacated North Sea and moved Belgium away from Holland? It will take at least a couple of turns to set up to attack me, and I think there’s much for England to gain by sticking with me while we tear you and France apart.

Faithfully reproduced.

Germany: I confirm that this is exactly what I said. For context, this was in response to a message from Russia indicating that England would be the end of me. I think copy/pasting private press into the global chat is a bit of a faux pas, but maybe I’m too old-fashioned. At any rate, it’s not clear to me what Russia is trying to accomplish by publicizing intentions of mine that are already pretty obvious.

Secret Thoughts re: Global

Russia seems desperate. As Germany stated in response, it's quite obvious from our moves that we are working together; It's undeniable that an England/Germany alliance exists on this board. Posting Germany's messages to Russia in the global chat comes across to me as inexperienced, even immature. What does Russia hope to accomplish by acting like this?

I have avoided global chat, other than my initial "have fun" message. I see no reason to change that. I'd rather not draw attention to myself.

Exchange with Russia

Ok, got it. You actually want StP and Nwy?

I thought hard about what I should say, and I decided to be honest with you: yes, I want St. Petersburg, and I'll be taking your center this turn. Because you left St. Pete open for the taking, I simply cannot resist the opportunity to stop you from ever building more fleets in the North. I realize that this is not at all what you want to hear, but it is the cold truth.

I am completely certain that Germany will push your fleet out of Sweden as well, so you will likely go down at least 1 supply center this turn. Maybe 2 or 3 if Austria attacks you at Rumania and/or Turkey attacks you at Sevastopol.

To be clear, I am also moving Norwegian Sea to Norway, hoping to capture both centers. I don't really know your play-style, but I am hoping that because I am telling you the truth about my intentions, you won't bounce my move to Norway using Sweden. I am hoping that you will decide that you won't win a fight in the north and need to concentrate elsewhere.

Secret Thoughts re: Russia

I'm going for a pretty sneaky strategy with my message: reverse psychology. Really! Like Br'er Rabbit pleading with Br'er Fox NOT to throw him into the briar patch (which is what he wanted), I have asked Russia NOT to bounce me at Norway (which is what I want).

In my mind, Russia is acting like a crazed, bitter player. Accordingly, I think Russia might be willing to take actions purely out of spite. To increase this effect, I decided to rile up Russia's bitter emotions by flatly stating my intention to attack, and by pointing out the ability of other powers to make a devastating attack on Russia this turn.

In order to obscure my effort at reverse psychology, I played off my effort to goad Russia as an effort to just be "honest" with Russia in return for Russia's mercy.

To be perfectly frank to you dear readers, I think what I'm doing here is kind of ridiculous and cheesy, but it's all I could come up with. I couldn't think of anything I could offer Russia that would be credible. I don't think Russia would believe me if I said I would give up Norway.

Messages with Turkey

Interesting character, the Russian. It's easy to dismiss him as a crackpot but he still survives and is actually posing a very real threat to Germany. Personally, I do not agree with publicizing private messages but he seems to have achieved his goal of drawing attention to your alleged alliance with Germany.

Eh, maybe. It's obvious that Germany and I are working together solely from our moves; if Germany had sent Russia a denial of our alliance, that would be laughably false. So why would Germany deny our alliance? With that in mind, Russia's global message is just noise. I don't see what Russia gained by forwarding a message of Germany's plain honesty. Germany and I will take Sweden and St. Pete at a minimum, and the worst Russia can do is bounce me out of Norway. If Russia doesn't want that to happen, Russia needs to break up the cooperation between me and Germany. Noise isn't going to do that.So let's move on from that.

The most curious thing about the turn is, in my opinion, Austria's failed support-move order. I see that Austria used Serbia to support Bulgaria to Rumania, but apparently you declined to do so -- and didn't attack Russia at all. That's an interesting turnabout. I thought you and Russia had locked horns. I'm not getting any press from Austria, so I am pretty confused about what's going on between you, Austria, and Russia. If you want to keep it opaque, I understand -- no pressure. But if you think it would allow me to help you somehow, please tell me your perspective.

I am still completely serious about what I said at the beginning of the game. I consider you my natural ally and will freely dispense help to you if I can.

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey

Turkey's effort to compliment Russia baffles me. It feels like Turkey is trying to impress me about Russia's ability for some reason, or make me worried about how blatant my alliance is with Germany. But to what end? Maybe Turkey is just trying to converse with me.

I decided to shut down the compliments to Russia and flat-out tell Turkey about my attack plans. Why? Well first of all, I want to build rapport with Turkey. Telling Turkey that I am going to attack Russia and there's nothing he or anyone can do about it is a true statement, and giving Turkey advance warning of my intentions could enhance my credibility (always valuable).

I'm hoping Turkey will share more information with me. Turkey seems to be reluctant to share.

Messages with Germany #1

I don’t think that could’ve gone much better! Excellent work sending France to Spain—that’s just what we needed to slow Italy down. I suggest you go ahead and take St. Petersburg. I won’t need Norway to help me into Sweden. If Turkey moves into Sevastopol and Austria into Rumania, that’s close to lights out for Russia. That army in Bohemia promises to be a thorn in my side for a while, but I think it will be manageable.

And I just realized I don’t need to juggle with the decision of supporting Italy into Marseilles. Perfect.

Of course, I’m reasonably sure the move by Austria into Galicia was coordinated with Russia. I’m just glad not to see a unit in Tyrolia.

It’s conceivable that we’re looking at an eastern triple, rather than 3 powers still treading water and trying to decide who to take out. That would certainly be unusual/interesting. I can’t imagine why Turkey would sign onto it, though—there’s not really anywhere to go but through Russia or Austria.

My orders for now:
PAR-BUR
DEN-SWE
BAL S DEN-SWE
BER-PRU
MUN-SIL
RUH-MUN

I may instead have Munich support Berlin to Silesia, but I’m not sure yet.

If you think I should be doing something else with Paris (or any of my units), please let me know.

I’ve read your messages, and as usual it seems like we see things the same way. I’ll come back later tonight or tomorrow after I can think more about the turn.

I am thinking I will do:
Brest to MAO (I expect France not to bounce me)
Picardy to Brest
Norway to STP
Norwegian to Norway

I agree that we should just snuff out StP. Russia made the wrong guess in moving to Sweden and now can’t defend StP. Let’s take advantage of that while we can, as you suggested earlier. Even if Russia bounces Norwegian at Norway...who cares? Maybe that will be advantageous actually: If I build an army at EDI and convoy it Norway in spring 1903, and move it to STP in autumn, I can start assisting your attacks on Russia in 1904. That’s actually a turn faster than if I capture Norway and have to back up my fleet to convoy. Something to mull over.

I think you are right to use only your Paris army against France. In 1903, we should have your army in Burgundy and mine in Gascony — we don’t immediately need any more armies there than that. With armies in Gascony and Bugrundy, we can decide the fate of Spain and probably Marseilles too.

Assuming I capture only StP and Brest, that’ll bring me up to 6 and you up to 7. That’s 13 between us — pretty dang good for 1902. Maybe we CAN conquer the board by 1925.

Now that we've successfully transformed North Sea into a DMZ, we should be able to throw virtually all of our units towards attacking the other players.

I could build a fleet at LVP and an army at EDI. Your move ideas for yourself will ensure Kiel is open so that you can use your Sweden build. I presume you want to build another army but let me know if you think differently. Keep in mind that your Baltic fleet can convoy armies out of Sweden and Kiel, which will probably be the way we get your army into Livonia.

Looking ahead, let’s not overlook that I can cede Belgium to you when needed (so that we stay even, roughly). That may be the way to go if I make progress against France before you get Warsaw.

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #1

I am getting a little nervous about impressing Germany TOO much with my powers of persuasion. I don't regret manipulating France last turn, but Germany might start thinking "what did England say to France? Is England so good at lying that I will fall for it too?" -- that sort of thing. There's nothing in Germany's press that hints that Germany is thinking this way, but it's something for me to be mindful about.

Therefore, I resisted the temptation to brag to Germany about how artfully I tricked France and Russia. I decided to not tell Germany that the way I accomplished this was by leaking the German orders. Whatever benefit I met get from revealing this information to Germany, it is outweighed by the risk of scaring Germany. Germany didn't ask if I leaked any orders, so I'm not going to bring it up on own. Maybe Germany thinks its just lucky.

I have no opinion on Germany's inference that Russia and Austria coordinated to dislodge Russia's army from Galicia. That seems odd, but what do I know.

Germany is correct that Austria and Turkey could coordinate to nearly finish off Russia. But will they? I don't know, but that seems more likely than eastern triple (which is not really a workable alliance).

Germany's suggested moves are identical to what I would have suggested, so there was no need for me to offer anything to the contrary to Germany. I'm impressed that Germany realized that only Paris is needed to move to Burgundy.

A reminder to you, dear reader: at this point I still believe the German player is being completely honest with me, and I pretty much am being honest with Germany as well.

Once again, I have revealed all my moves to Germany in advance. Germany is the only player who can interfere with my plans, and I trust Germany not to do so.

I made sure to keep talking about my idea of building an army in Edinburgh. As I've said, armies are essential to eventually getting a solo win, so I need to build as many as Germany will tolerate. By explaining my bouncing plan at Sweden, I am trying to get Germany emotionally invested in the cleverness of my plan and the importance of getting an army to St. Petersburg as soon as possible.

I have made sure to point out that Germany is likely to have 7 supply centers at the end of this turn, and that 7 is more than my likely 6. I said this so that Germany doesn't become nervous and decide to nab Belgium without warning. I also mentioned that I am willing to freely cede Belgium to Germany. I have made this offer so that Germany will feel like it is better to just ask me for control of Belgium (rather than feel like taking Belgium would have to be in the form of a backstab). I carefully suggested that such a cession should come on a later turn of course...

Planning ahead, I decided to point out how I will use my builds -- specifically, how I will use them for attacks that aren't against Germany. That kind of talk goes a long way in keeping an ally on your side. I've played a lot of games where an ally helps me take a center, and then freaks out when I actually build the unit that capturing the center allowed me to build. I've learned my lesson from those experiences.

That also gives me an opportunity to talk about Germany's build, which I very much want to be an army. I've explained my reasoning in previous posts. What's notable here is that I gave Germany the opportunity to say that the build should be a fleet; I didn't demand that Germany build an army. By keeping open the possibility that I would tolerate a German fleet build, I actually expect to have the effect of making Germany think that such a build is unnecessary (because my casual attitude about a fleet build will make Germany feel safe from me, which will make Germany feel that a fleet is not necessary). I bet if I repeatedly demanded that Germany not build a fleet, Germany would get annoyed or even spooked. Chew on that, dear reader.

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #2

Germany's next messages are basically just repeating back my ideas and agreeing with them.

The most interesting thing is that Germany claims that Austria and Turkey both promised to attack Russia. We'll see! I decided to write elaborate tactics for how Germany and I can mop up the Russian centers in the aftermath of that. My tactical ideas are strong and completely sincere, but the reason I have sent them to Germany is to keep Germany focus on how much more to gain there is from cooperating with me than from fighting with me.

I included some niceties and congratulations just to keep up the rapport. Talking about how great something will be in the future is a decent technique for getting someone on board with creating that future.

Messages with Germany #2

Your planned moves are exactly right and exactly what I was thinking would make the most sense.

I do intend to build an army in Kiel. I frankly don’t anticipate a situation arising in which a fleet could be more helpful than an army. Even if we find at some point that you’re outnumbered in the Mediterranean, it’ll likely be easier for me to hand you a supply center than to have one of my fleets travel an extra two spaces to get to wherever you want a fleet to be.

I thought about whether it would be better (for the success of our alliance) for me to have the additional build from Belgium this turn than for you to have an additional build, but when I played different hypothetical scenarios out, there were too many in which I only have Kiel open to build and the extra build is wasted. The possibility you raise of your getting an army into St. Petersburg faster AND having a much-needed fleet to back up the one in BRE further solidifies my belief that you’re better off holding onto BEL for now. But, I appreciate that you’re thinking about it, and I’m sure we’ll both recognize if/when we arrive at a situation that calls for transferring Belgium to me.

I share your sense that a bounce in Norway might, counter-intuitively, be better. A double fleet build (+army in EDI) might set off alarm bells for Italy, and I do like the idea of your getting an army into St. P sooner rather than later. You may want to consider telling Russia you’re handing Norway to him for free (presumably because you’re disgusted with me for, um, whatever it is Russia thought was wrong with my message that he put in the global chat) to induce the bounce. Granted, I’m sure you could do without his crazed ire.

Turkey has pledged to move on Sevastopol and says that Austria promised to join in on hitting Russia. I'm not sure yet if Austria can be counted on, but we'll know soon enough.

If Austria and Turkey attack Russia this turn, that will be a tremendous boon to you and the end of any serious threat to your elimination. If that comes to pass, our main concern will then be about just how many supply centers we can acquire before the other powers form a stalemate line against us and force a draw (or how to prevent them from banding together to form a stalemate line).

So although it will be very good if Austria and Turkey blow away Russia, we should be thinking long-term about how to put as many of Russia's centers into your hands as we can. Austria and Turkey will be trying to get into position to take Warsaw and Moscow, but we should be able to get both of those centers for you if we play our cards right. If you can rapidly get an army into Silesia, Prussia, and Livonia (likely with a convoy) while I get an army into St. Pete, we'll be lined to take control of Warsaw and Moscow (or at least, have the highest chance of making the captures).

I hope they really do attack Russia. Fingers crossed!

We already figured out our moves early this turn, so there's nothing left to discuss on that front. We're poised for an absolutely explosive first two years (13 centers between the two of us!) and I think we will have momentum on our side in 1903.

Hip hip, Huzzah!

Final Thoughts

This has probably been the least dramatic turn so far. There is also very little for me to worry about with my moves:

Nobody can stop me from capturing St. Petersburg.
The worst-case scenario with Norway is that I capture the center. When that's your bad scenario, you're in good shape.
France could bounce me out of Mid-Atlantic Ocean, but France knows that I would capture Brest if so. France seems unlikely to bounce me.
Germany could backstab me to take Belgium or interfere with my capture of Brest, but that seems extremely unlikely to me. Germany and I have a great relationship and there's not much benefit to Germany in backstabbing me at this time.

Online Diplomacy Championship R1 Autumn 190222 min read

Another Turn, Another Success

Other Developments

What Do I Want To Accomplish This Turn?

Diplomatic Goals?

Global Messages

Secret Thoughts re: Global

Exchange with Russia

Secret Thoughts re: Russia

Messages with Turkey

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey

Messages with France

Secret Thoughts re: France

Messages with Italy

Secret Thoughts re: Italy

Messages with Austria

Secret Thoughts re: Austria

Messages with Germany #1

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #1

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #2

Messages with Germany #2

Final Thoughts

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