This Year is Probably the Last

Austria kept Berlin.

Let me make a frank appraisal of my situation:

• Austria kept the army at Berlin and disbanded the fleet at North Africa. I thought there was maybe a chance Austria would be so angry about losing Tunis that Austria would (try to) throw me the match, but apparently not. I almost certainly can't win at this point without one of my rivals throwing the match.
• Everything north of Switzerland is already in a stalemate position. I cannot move into Tyrolia, Bohemia, or Silesia. Berlin can be support-held indefinitely by Silesia and Prussia. I can't get into Prussia. Livonia can be support-held indefinitely by Warsaw and Moscow.  Unless Austria assists me, there's nothing I can do.
• Italy and Turkey's southern forces are able to immediately create a stalemate line:
  • They need units in Piedmont (done), Tuscany (can be done), Tyrrhenian Sea (can be done), and Tunis (done) to form the basic line.
  • They also need a fleet in Ionian Sea to support-hold Tunis (done) and a fleet in Naples or Rome to support-hold Tyrrhenian Sea (done). Alternatively, a fleet in Tuscany could be used to support-hold the fleet in Tyrrhenian Sea, but then Italy would need to support Piedmont with an army at Venice, which Italy is not quite in a position to immediately do.

Final Thoughts

Hey, it's something.

I can imagine a tactical scenario where Italy and Turkey make a mistake that allows me to keep advancing: What if Italy tries to hold onto Gulf of Lyon instead of backing up into a proper stalemate position? Here's what has to happen:

• Italy has to move the fleet at Rome to Tuscany and the fleet at Naples to Tyrrhenian Sea (likely supported by Ionian Sea).
• I have to dislodge Italy's fleet at Gulf of Lyon. If Gulf of Lyon cannot retreat to Tuscany or Tyrrhenian Sea, it will have to retreat to Piedmont or else disband.
• Therefore, I also have to make sure Italy cannot leave Piedmont open for a move or retreat. (It is possible Italy could try to set up the stalemate line by moving Piedmont to Tuscany and Gulf of Lyon to Piedmont.)

I've built the rest of my moveset around trying to set up that scenario. By the way, I'm not afraid of Italy temporarily getting a unit into Marseilles because I can easily retake the position.

If Italy simply moves the fleet at Gulf of Lyon to Tuscany and either fleet at Rome or Naples to Tyrrhenian Sea (while the other holds), the stalemate line is set. I'll likely vote to draw after that, since there doesn't seem to be any way I could convince the others to continue the match past that point. If Italy sets up the stalemate line, I'll probably vote draw and move on with my life. If I destroy the fleet at Gulf of Lyons, I'll keep going.