Aw shucks. It's not gonna happen.

It's not looking good at all for my solo win effort.

What can I say? My guesses weren't too great last turn. I correctly guessed that Italy would move to Gascony, but I didn't think Italy would move into Gulf of Lyon or into Tyrolia with support.

On the plus side, I managed to destroy the Italian fleet in Western Mediterranean. I honestly don't know why Turkey moved Ionian Sea to Tunis, but Austria's order for the fleet at Tunis was to support-hold the Italian fleet at Western Mediterranean. If Turkey's fleet at Ionian Sea had not disrupted Austria's support-hold order, my move into Western Med would have failed. So, hooray for me -- Italy's fleet got destroyed due to this (apparent?) error on Turkey's part. If Italy goes down a center on this turn, Italy won't get to rebuild the unit.

But looking at the board, I have a difficult problem:

• Because Turkey and Italy successfully lined up units at Silesia, Bohemia, and Tyrolia (together with Austria's army at Berlin), my control of Munich is in danger. Crap. 
• Italy's army at Marseilles can move to Burgundy, cutting any support I might give to Munich with Burgundy.

So I think I'm a little behind this turn compared to last turn. I can take Marseilles for sure, but there's now this risk that I could lose Munich.

Ah well.

My Moves

This is the best I came up with.

My chances of a solo win are much less than 5%

I am certain that I won't solo win unless my rivals make a horrible mistake or I trick them somehow. I'll keep trying for now though.

Looking forwards, there's only a slim chance of my getting control of Tunis. Italy, Austria, and Turkey, if they wanted, could form a stalemate position right now. Here's how:

• Marseilles to Piedmont (on retreat or otherwise)
• Gulf of Lyon to Tuscany
• Tyrrhenian Sea to Rome/Naples
• Ionian Sea to Tyrrhenian Sea
• Greece/Aegean to Ionian Sea

That forms a stalemate line. Will they move their units into those positions? We'll see. I wish I could think of a way to trick one of them into not setting up the stalemate line, but nothing comes to mind.

I am attacking Marseilles with my fleet at Spain instead of my army at Gascony (attacking with my army at Gascony is what I planned when making the convoy last turn). I'm now thinking that if my rivals don't set up the stalemate line I just described, it will probably be because Italy decided to support-hold the fleet at Gulf of Lyon. If that comes to pass, I'll need fleets in Spain, Marseilles, and Western Mediterranean Sea to break into Gulf of Lyon. Pushing Italy's fleet out of Gulf of Lyon almost certainly won't be enough to break through the stalemate line, but it's the only thing I can think of that gives me even a little hope. Also, poking Gulf of Lyon with my fleet at Western Mediterranean Sea means my attack on Marseilles is sure to work.

I don't want to move a fleet to North Africa because I don't want my fleet at Western Mediterranean Sea to be destroyed if it is dislodged. Also, if Austria is foolish enough to move Tunis to North Africa, I'd like Austria's move to succeed because Austria might panic about Italy/Turkey seizing Tunis.

Anyways.

Most likely, Italy will move the army at Marseilles to Burgundy to ensure that my army at Burgundy cannot successfully support-hold Munich. Meanwhile, the armies at Tyrolia, Bohemia, Silesia, and Berlin will likely coordinate to attack Munich. A coordinated attack on Munich would have enough power to succeed; only my armies at Ruhr and Kiel are sure to successfully support-hold my army at Munich.

So the question in my mind is: tactically speaking, what precise attack do I think Italy, Turkey, and Austria are likely to make on Munich? Here are their reasonable options:

• Berlin to Munich supported by Tyrolia, Bohemia and Silesia. Backfill Berlin with Prussia. 
  • This is probably the strongest attack plan they could make. The main reason I think they might not do this move is that I think Austria might be reluctant to vacate Berlin (Austria is close to elimination and Turkey poked Tunis last turn).
• Prussia support-hold Berlin. One of Tyrolia/Bohemia/Silesia move to Munich supported by the other two. Berlin support that move too.
  • This move is not as strong. Even if I were to let them take Munich, there's a chance I could get away with moving Munich into Berlin with two supports, trading one center for another (this is especially risky for Austria). Further, I can poke Berlin with Baltic Sea, cutting support, and thus allowing my support from Ruhr and Kiel to be enough to hold Munich against the attack.
• Prussia and Silesia support-hold Berlin. Tyrolia and Bohemia attack Munich with Berlin's support.
  • This move guarantees that Austria retains control of Berlin, but makes it very unlikely that I will lose Munich. This is the most conservative play.

With the moves I've entered (the armies at Burgundy, Ruhr and Kiel support-hold Munich; the fleet at Baltic Sea move to Berlin supported by Munich), I'll do okay no matter what plan my rivals go with.

• Moving my fleet at Baltic Sea to Berlin will cut any support order from Austria's army at Berlin. Thus, unless my rivals attack Munich using Austria's army at Berlin specifically, Munich will remain mine.
• If my rivals attack Munich using Austria's army at Berlin, their attack will fail unless they support that attack with Tyrolia, Bohemia, and Silesia and poke Burgundy with Italy's army at Marseilles. Even if they execute that all-out attack, my moving Baltic Sea to Berlin means that they won't be able to backfill Berlin using Prussia; Prussia would be bounced out. I certainly don't like the idea of losing Munich, but at least by bouncing Turkey's army out of Berlin I will have chance of conquering Berlin on a future turn (or at least preventing Turkey from accumulating centers, which will increase my share of the draw).
• There's an off-chance that Italy won't poke Burgundy, so I'll make the support-hold order on Munich just in case.

The rest of my northern moves are for getting into position to make an attack on Livonia. I am at least one turn behind on these movements, so most likely Turkey is going to stalemate me. But I'll keep trying. It's still to my advantage to threaten Livonia to the extent that I can, because if Austria does take Munich from me, my ability to threaten Livonia could interfere with Turkey's ability to move an army into Berlin on the following turns.