Turkey Can't Solo, But Maybe I Can

R.I.P. Germany. With no ability to retreat, the last German army is disbanded.

To quickly review what transpired:

Germany's last army was destroyed, as I predicted.
Austria did exactly as I asked.
Turkey did not attempt a solo win, despite what I have been predicting. Turkey appears to be cooperating with Italy. You can't see it on this map picture, but Turkey tried to support (non-existent) Italian moves into Tunis and Vienna. Presumably, Turkey sent Italy messages promising support and then Italy didn't believe or didn't read the messages.
- Turkey didn't coordinate with Germany either.
Italy apparently wasted a whole turn, having failed to coordinate with either me or Turkey. This give me the impression that Italy did not read (or at least, did not act on) any press from anyone.
- Without the threat of a Turkish solo win attempt, Italy's disengagement from this match isn't necessarily bad for me. If I attempt a solo win, I hope Italy fails to coordinate with Turkey to block me.
Turkey didn't dislodge Austria's army from Bohemia. This makes it difficult for Turkey to make attacks on Munich and Berlin (or to defend those centers) on this turn or future turns. I am pleased about this fortuity.

What Do I Want To Accomplish This Turn?

Aw heck. I'm just going to go for it. At this point, I don't believe that my solo win attempt will succeed (Tunis is simply too far away and Italy is in too good of a shape), but I don't think Turkey will be the one who ends up winning if I try. Italy is strong, but that's much more of a problem for Turkey than for me. If Turkey tries to solo win too, I'll most likely be the victor.

I hope that Turkey tries for a solo win this turn. If so, my chances of winning will be increased. I don't think I can really do anything to induce Turkey to attempt a solo; either Turkey tries for a solo win or doesn't.

Meanwhile, I just have to keep Austria and Italy unsuspecting. That should be easy. They seem to be barely paying attention to this game.

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey

I no longer think that Turkey will try for a solo win. Maybe Turkey was never actually planning on a solo win attempt and I was merely paranoid.

The way I see the board now, Turkey attempting a solo win is something that would be to my benefit. And for that matter, any Turkish attack on Italy or Austria -- whether to attempt a solo win or not -- is probably to my benefit. Turkish attacks on either player would force them to lower their defenses against me.

So you might be asking yourself: "Why aren't you messaging Turkey in some way to trick Turkey into handing you a solo win?" My answer is: I think Turkey is too canny and conservative to be outright tricked. Early on, Turkey ruled out the possibility of a 2-way draw with me (I deem this refusal honest because it would have cost Turkey nothing to at least humor me so early in the match). Further, Turkey has progressed with a slow and steady plan of attacking in a single direction. I don't think that I can bait Turkey into attacking Austria and Italy. To the contrary -- I think that if I tried to get Turkey to do anything at this point, Turkey might do the opposite just to foil my intentions. I don't think I can trick Turkey with reverse psychology.

My best ability to trick Turkey might be to offer Turkey support into Berlin, and then take the center for myself (on that turn or a later turn). The reason I am unwilling to do this is that I think that if I give Turkey any indication that I'm plotting against Austria or Italy, Turkey will reveal my plans to them or otherwise work against me.

In other words, I think it is to my advantage to present a poker face to Turkey, to give Turkey nothing to go on one way or the other about my intentions. Silence can have a powerful effect on the mind. Turkey may become anxious and offer me some kind of deal. Or maybe if neither I nor Italy send Turkey messages, Turkey will conclude that we are colluding and make a preemptive attack on Italy.

As the turns go on, if I think of something, I'll try to trick Turkey. But otherwise, I'm not going to waste my time and use up my valuable credibility.

Messages with Italy

I would have supported your army into Tunis if you had just asked. As you can see, I'm not at all going to attack you. Turkey is the one moving units in your direction (Aegean Sea), not me.

If you don't respond to my messages...there's not a lot I can do for you. You don't have to do what I tell you to be my ally, but I would like a response.

Whoops, I just realised I missed all of your previous messages somehow...

Help me into Tunis? Turkey clearly plans to stab me

Ah shoot!! Well, it's not a big deal since nothing bad happened. But please check my messages going forward, lol

Yes, I am still very sure that Turkey intends to stab you. Turkey didn't need to move Smyrna to Aegean Sean except to set up a stab. I still recommend that you move Marseilles to Piedmont so that you can set up a proper defense against Turkey after Austria disbands down to 2. I won't hold it against you if you don't, but I will say "I told you so" if you end up losing Trieste...

And yes, I will absolutely support your attack on Tunis. Please confirm that Western Mediterranean Sea is the unit I need to support into Tunis.

Secret Thoughts re: Italy

Oh good gravy. If Italy really just forgot to check my messages, I have to consider Italy a rather poor player. This match is pretty close, with a solo win being possible for both me and Turkey. And furthermore, Italy's final score could be greatly affected by which centers Italy controls and which positions Italy is in as we approach endgame.

Right now, I'm inclined to believe Italy that Italy didn't check my messages. I have the impression, at this moment, that Italy is not an attentive or experienced player. I think that Italy's success in this match is mostly due to the fact that both Turkey and I have left Italy alone (or propped up Italy) for strategic reasons. In real life history, the Ottoman Empire (the predecessor state to Turkey) was propped up by various other powers for something like a century because those powers feared what would happen if the empire collapsed. I have a feeling that Italy has been propped up for a similar strategic reason. I don't recall Italy, independently, making any particularly effective moves or diplomatic accomplishments.

I'm doing my best to shrug off this negativity, since criticizing Italy won't accomplish anything. I don't know if Italy will read my message or not, but I'm making one last effort to trick Italy into moving away from me.

My promise to support Western Med into Tunis -- specifically that fleet -- is also a trick. If Italy moves Western Med into Tunis, it makes it less likely that Italy will cover Spain.

Messages with Austria

Well, that went pretty well for you. Turns out, Germany and Turkey didn't coordinate, so it was an easy turn.

Italy never responded to me, so I support-held your fleet in Tunis. If Italy and Turkey work together, they can steal it from you and there's nothing I can do about it, but I did help you for a turn since I thought Italy might do something stupid. I don't know why Italy didn't message me.

Is there anything you want to do besides supply-hold with Munich and Berlin? I don't think you can defend Vienna either if Turkey and Italy work together.

Related question: I would like to end the match with more centers than Turkey, and one way I could do so is by trying to nap a center off of the uncooperative Italy. However, I would not do this without your permission, since your armies in Munich and Berlin are essential to my defense. Do I have your permission to pick at Italy, or no?

I'm your puppet, have at it! And if Tunis needs to die to buy a deal for you with Italy, I won't mind. My goal is a survive....the numbers for me are irrelevant.

Thank you! I understand that you're okay with whatever I do vs. Italy. Got it.

Question: have you decided what to do with Bohemia? You could try to cover Vienna and just hope for the best. I thought of another idea: if you trust me to support-hold your positions at Munich and Berlin, you could move Bohemia to Silesia supported by Munich and Berlin and destroy Turkey's army at Silesia.

Secret Thoughts re: Austria

I'm trying to maintain my messaging with Austria because I need to accomplish several things:

I need Austria to be unsuspecting of my imminent attack. If Austria doesn't sense that I'm attacking, Austria won't coordinate with Turkey and/or Italy to try to get them to support-hold Austria's positions at Munich and Berlin. (Those other two powers might do that anyways, whether or not Austria asks for it, but it's a little less likely to happen if Austria doesn't solicit their help.)
If possible, I want Austria to reveal what tactical choices Austria is going to make. As I've said several times in this journal, the more detail you know about what a player's moves will be, the easier it is to stab that player.

I pointed out that I didn't get communications from Italy to maintain the illusion that I'm still working with Austria as my main ally. Austria probably didn't get any messages from Italy either.

To maintain maximum credibility, I asked for Austria's permission to attack Italy. That should go a long way in throwing Austria off the scent that I want to attack Austria; it's very counter-intuitive that I would ask Austria for permission to attack Italy if, all along, I plan to just attack them both anyways. I think this is a pretty clever deception, for my part.

Austria didn't respond to my questions about Bohemia. I'm hoping Austria doesn't support-hold Munich with Bohemia. I'm trying to trick Austria into not doing this. But I suppose Austria isn't paying much attention to this match anymore and doesn't care enough to respond.

Final Thoughts

It's now or never!

Before going into the details of how I came up with these tactical choices, let me make it clear: I think my chances of getting a solo win are something like 5% or even less.

If any of the following happen this turn, there's no way I'll get a solo win:

Italy could suddenly turn about and start blocking me. I promised Italy that I would support Western Med into Tunis, so there's a pretty good chance Italy won't block me. But if, say, Italy moves Marseilles to Spain, I probably won't have enough momentum to get a solo win after that.
Turkey, Italy, and/or Austria could make the right moves to keep my army out of Munich. I am attacking Munich with merely 2 supports, so my move is not at all guaranteed to work. If my attack on Munich fails, I won't have the momentum needed to solo win (because if I'm shut out of Munich, and that means my rivals are already working together despite my efforts to keep them divided). If at least two of the following happen, my attack on Munich will fail:
- Italy pokes Burgundy with Marseilles, cutting support.
- Italy support-holds Munich with Tyrolia (and Tyrolia isn't poked)
- Austria support-holds Munich with Bohemia (and Bohemia isn't poked)
- Turkey support-holds Munich with Silesia (and Silesia isn't poked)

However, there are some things that could happen which would increase my chances of winning:

Turkey could attack Italy and/or Austria this turn (or even both, as a solo win attempt). If that happens, Italy and/or Austria may try to throw the game to me out of spite. My ability to solo win is probably slightly better than Turkey's at this point because Italy is still relatively intact. Note: I don't think Turkey will do this, but it is possible.
Austria and/or Italy could make mistakes due to not paying attention, or could just give up and let me win due to feeling like there's no way they can stop me.
- Let me make that clear: even if my attack this turn is 100% successful, competent players could still halt my solo win attempt. Even if I get control of Munich, Berlin, Spain and Marseilles, Italy and Turkey simply have to form a stalemate line running through Tunis to stop me. If that happens, I can't win. Two competent players could easily form this stalemate line. But if Italy is lazy or indifferent, I might be able to sneak in a solo win due to Italy making a tactical mistake. Turkey probably has the experience to know how to form a stalemate line running through Tunis, but if Italy isn't reading or responding to Turkey's messages (Italy claims to have not read mine at all, and didn't respond), then Turkey won't be able to coach into into forming the proper positions

In sum, I am very sure that I can only possibly solo win if my rivals make grave, incompetent errors. I don't think these mistakes are likely, but I do think mistakes are possible. In general, in my opinion as a Diplomacy player, a solo win is only made possible through very serious mistakes by the other players (either tactical errors, or foolishly believing endgame lies).

So here's my tactical plan:

I'm using North Africa to support English Channel to Mid-Atlantic Ocean.
- Because I have this whole chain of orders that depend on English Channel successfully moving into Mid-Atlantic Ocean, it seems critical that this move succeed (even though I don't think Italy will try to block me). It would really stink if my moves with North Sea and Heligoland Bight also failed.
- I considered whether it might be to my advantage to support Italy's Western Mediterranean fleet into Tunis just to move Italy's fleet out of my way, but thought better of it: 1) If Austria's keeps control of Tunis, this could interfere with the ability of my rivals to coordinate; 2) If possible, I want Italy to have to disband, or at least not build new units; 3) Turkey is probably going to support Italy's fleet into Tunis no matter what I do, so my support would be a wasted effort.
I'm moving Portugal to Spain, hoping that I walk in without Italy putting up a defense. Italy didn't defend Spain last turn, so maybe Italy won't defend Spain this turn either.
- If I do sneak into Spain, that could be a momentum shift in my favor. I will gain a build, Italy will lose (or fail to get) a build, and I'll have a fleet in position to fight for Marseilles on the next year.
- Even if Italy does defend Spain, it's not a disaster. I will be able to make a supported attack on Spain next year.
I'm moving North Sea to English Channel and Heligoland Bight to North Sea. I'm also moving Barents Sea to Norwegian Sea. I'm actually quite pleased with how straightforward and simple this tactical plan is. This set of orders will put all my fleets into really useful positions at no risk to me:
- I will have fleets at English Channel, North Sea, and Norwegian Sea that are all able to convoy for me. This is important because if I get at least two builds, I'll build two armies that I'll need to convoy off of Great Britain.
- I'm using my fleets really efficiently. Now that my fleets have accomplished what they needed to do in taking over the North, I'm moving my fleets around to where they're more tactically useful. If I do solo win, it probably will be because I threaded 3 or 4 fleets through Gibraltar (right now I've got 1 and possibly 1 more with Spain, but I still need to bring several more into the Mediterranean if I'm really going to solo win).
- I don't need any unit to guard St. Petersburg right now. My Barents Sea fleet is far more useful to me as a potential way to convoy another army off of Great Britain next year. I will want to convoy any new army build to Norway and then move that army to St. Petersburg. Even though I don't think I can capture Moscow, an army at St. Petersburg can threaten to do so, which will interfere with Turkey's ability to set up a defense.
  - Furthermore, an army at St. Petersburg can support an army convoy from Denmark into Livonia. I think that inexperienced players might overlook the importance of being able to do this on a future turn. My ability to successfully convoy an army into Livonia could be decisive in whether I'm able to eventually capture Berlin.
Finally, my attack plan against Austria is simple and gives me a decent chance at eventually capturing Berlin. I already explained above the tactical ways that my plan could fail, but honestly I don't think I have anything to lose right now. If my attack fails, then it's because Turkey and/or Italy are cooperating with Austria to get a draw. If that's what's going on this turn, then my solo win ability is already non-existent and the game will simply end in a draw after this turn's builds, or shortly thereafter.
- Note that I'm poking Berlin with Baltic Sea to cut Berlin's ability to support-hold Munich. This means that Austria's army at Bohemia is not enough to support-hold Munich against my attack. Austria needs cooperation from Italy, Turkey, or both.
- Another Note: I made sure to attack Kiel with Holland and not Denmark. I need to keep an army at Denmark, because then I can threaten to (or actually) convoy that army using my fleet at Baltic Sea. I made a supported attack on Kiel just to be safe, even though I don't expect Austria to do something about it. I would really hate it if Germany were able to re-build an army at Kiel.

I'm certain to capture Kiel this turn and get 1 build. I think I have a 75% of taking Munich and a 50% chance of taking Spain, which might result in my getting 2 or even 3 builds. (I realize that such precise percentages sound silly; I'm just trying to describe my gut feelings in words.)

If I end this turn with 2 builds, I'll probably build two armies at London and Edinburgh. It will be really easy for me to convoy those new armies off of Great Britain because I have fleets parked at three relevant convoy positions (Norwegian Sea, North Sea, English Channel). I could even do a double-convoy using English Channel and Mid-Atlantic Ocean to suddenly put an army into Gascony, should I deem that prudent (it would be for quickly taking Marseilles). It's cool to think that I could have 7 fleets and 7 armies, equalizing the amount of units I have of each type for the first time all match. If possible, I should avoid further fleet builds. Additional fleets are almost useless to me at this point, especially since I'm using the 7 that I have so efficiently.

After this turn, unless Turkey also attempts a solo win, I'll have to go it alone. It's interesting to think about how I've attacked France, Russia and Germany, and now Austria (in German home centers) and Italy (in French centers). The only player I won't have attacked is Turkey, who of course it isn't possible for me to attack (yet). I think this is a good demonstration of how Turkey and England are natural allies.

Online Diplomacy Championship R1 Autumn 190617 min read