I think Turkey is Going For It

I think Turkey is going for a solo. There's nothing Turkey can say to change my conclusion.

The board pretty much speaks for itself, so I'll sum it up quickly:

Turkey is obviously positioned for a solo run, just as I predicted in my notes and especially in my messages with Italy. Thank goodness I foresaw Turkey's tactical position and planned accordingly.
- Because I think Turkey is attempting (or about to attempt) a solo win, I will change my strategy to prioritize blocking Turkey. I'll still try to sneak in my own solo win if I can, but I'll treat that goal as secondary for now.
Italy listened to me. That's awesome. I'm so glad Italy is paying attention to what I'm saying. If Italy will listen to my coaching, Turkey has no chance of getting a solo win. I know how to set up stalemate lines.
- Perhaps, if opportunity knocks, I can turn things around on Turkey and be the one to attempt a solo win.
Austria made the right choice about which army to move into Munich (and which to use to lend support). That's great for me, and I'm really glad Austria is hanging in there. Austria seems to be trying harder and paying more attention more than I was giving credit for earlier in this journal.
Germany did exactly what I wanted and is now done for. That's great for me. After betraying Germany a second time, it is important that I'm able to finish off Germany immediately so that Germany has no opportunity for revenge.
- I used and abused Germany last turn, but I don't care. Germany became useless to me after disbanding Munich and Berlin. Clearly, Germany was indeed willing to throw the game to me, but in my opinion this development came too late; I think Germany lost the ability to throw the game to me on prior turns.

What Do I Want To Accomplish This Turn?

Strategically, my goal has to be to shut down Turkey's chance for a solo win. That is priority #1. Meanwhile, if I can can creep ever closer to Italy's and Austria's positions under the guise of "setting up a stalemate line," perhaps an opportunity to get a solo win for myself will arise. And if not, then oh well.

Tactically, I just need to build an army. I have more than enough fleets, and yet another fleet build would needlessly alarm Italy. It's also pretty obvious where I should build the army: London. From London, I can convoy out of Great Britain using either of my fleets at English Channel and North Sea. I don't have to make up my mind until I see which units Germany disbands.

Diplomatically, I want to use the extra time of the Winter turn to make sure Austria and Italy are on my side and ready to work with me in setting up a stalemate line vs. Turkey. Convincing those two that a Turkish solo win attempt is their greatest danger is to my advantage whether or not I decide to make my own solo win attempt.

Secret Thoughts re: Germany

I'm not going to respond to Germany. I can't think of anything to say at this point, and I don't want to antagonize Germany somehow by getting into an argument.

I don't think Germany is right that I could have acquired Moscow. Turkey has 3 builds this turn, and would easily be able to send some of the new units to create a fortified position at Moscow.

Furthermore, I don't want Germany to be openly throwing the match to me; that might cause Austria and Italy to panic and join forces with Turkey. Right now, Turkey is more powerful than I am (even though I have 1 more supply center) because Turkey can easily take more centers and has positions close to the stalemate line (Prussia, Silesia, and Ionian Sea). I shouldn't openly try for the solo win until I have the ability to take control of Munich and Berlin.

If Germany wanted to throw the game, Germany needed to take action a turn earlier.

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey

I have nothing to say to Turkey. I am all-but-certain Turkey is preparing for a solo win attempt because Turkey made a supported move into Ionian Sea. Turkey's supported move into Ionian Sea guaranteed that Italy wouldn't get a build this turn. I think that anything Turkey says to me (or to anyone else) will be lies and manipulations in order to set up for the solo win.

Perhaps if Turkey had been willing to contemplate a 2-way draw earlier in the match, I might be messaging Turkey about how we could arrange a 2-way draw (a realistic prospect for England and Turkey, especially given this board state). But because Turkey definitively ruled that out, I don't see what I might gain from messaging Turkey right now.

Messages with Austria #1

Hooray!! We brought Germany down to a single center and you got control of Munich and Berlin just like we planned.

Just FYI -- in case you didn't notice -- Turkey ordered Prussia to support Baltic Sea to Berlin. Obviously, Germany didn't actually move that fleet to Berlin. But Turkey was hoping Germany would do that and was trying to harass you.

I know why Turkey did that -- it's the same reason Turkey made a supported attack on Ionian Sea and is sending more and more armies into the center: Turkey is trying to get a solo win.

I'm ready to form a stalemate line vs. Turkey and vote draw. Are you ready to do this as well? It's going to be a difficult fight, but I think we can pull it off.

The centers you need to make it into the draw are Munich and Berlin, and hopefully Tunis too. At a minimum, I can help you keep Munich and Berlin, but we have to proceed with perfect tactics.

Look closely at the board: Turkey can make a supported attack on Berlin next turn, and if Germany keeps Kiel or Ruhr, Germany could try to throw to Turkey by helping Turkey's attack. I think Germany will try to throw to Turkey because Germany thinks throwing is better than making it into the draw.

Therefore, please disband Vienna instead of Bohemia. That way, next turn you can do the following moves:
Munich support-hold Berlin
Bohemia to Silesia
(I'll do burgundy support-hold Munich, so you'll be safe there)
(I'll also make supported attacks on whatever unit Germany keeps so that if you can survive vs. Germany for even a single turn, Germany's unit will be disbanded and cease to be a threat to you)

Because Germany knows that I'll be attacking, Germany will almost-certainly poke Munich with Germany's remaining army (instead of making a support-move order that I would just cut).

If Turkey supports Prussia to Berlin with Silesia, then you'll poke Silesia and cut the order, protecting Berlin. My army will be in Kiel the turn after that and can support-hold Berlin.

If Turkey moves Silesia to Berlin supported by Prussia, then we just have to hope that Bohemia moves to Silesia, or at least bounces out a Turkish army move to SIlesia. Like I said, my army will be in Kiel -- and also my fleet will be in Baltic Sea. What we'll do is either I'll support Silesia to Berlin (if that's where your army is) with my two units, OR if Bohemia gets bounced, I'll support Bohemia to Munich (with Burgundy and Ruhr) and Munich to Berlin (with Kiel and Baltic Sea).

This plan I'm making here is very tactically precise. If you do not have an army in Bohemia after this turn, Turkey will make a supported attack on Berlin AND be able to surround Berlin with 2 other armies in Prussia and Silesia, which will be too many units for us to easily force Turkey back. Even if I eventually can push Turkey out of Berlin, it would almost certainly be with my own armies instead of yours.

I realize this is a really long message just to explain why I think you should disband Vienna instead of Bohemia, but I think it really is that important. I think you're sure to lose Vienna in the long run anyways and you just give up that center. I think you can definitely keep Munich and Berlin and make it into the draw with my help, but you need to make the EXACT moves I'm suggesting.

Do you agree?

Secret Thoughts re: Austria #1

My messages to Austria are sincere. My priority #1 is to stop the possibility of a Turkish solo win. Although it's a bit of a stretch, I am kind of wondering if Austria has been somehow tricked into working with Turkey (Turkey moved into Silesia just as Austria left). So at the outset, I want to emphasize to Austria how a Turkish solo win is a clear and present danger.

I also have some anxiety that Austria isn't experienced enough to understand how dire the tactical situation is. The tactics of how to ensure that we block Turkey are precise and complicated. I don't know if Austria appreciates just how specific Austria's moves have to be in order to stop Turkey and Germany from blasting apart Austria's position (I fully expect Germany to try to throw to Turkey, or at least I have to assume that Germany will try to do this). To ensure Turkey can't get into Munich and/or Berlin, Austria should move precisely as I have recommended (and our moves need to be coordinated).

If Turkey acquires Berlin and Austria goes down to a single center, I am worried that Austria might give in to this idea (the one Germany has) that losing to a solo win is a preferable outcome to a tiny draw score, or that Austria will come to believe that stopping Turkey from winning is impossible and give up.

Messages with Austria #2

Yes, and I even got there before I read! We are of like mind. I was debating killing T Tunis though and keeping Vienna. You have more than enough fleets in the Med. Vienna will die, but it will slow down the center deployment.

Wonderful, absolutely wonderful 🙂

I had simply assumed that you would try to keep Tunis. If you are willing to give up on Tunis now to maximize our chances of beating Turkey, please go ahead and do that. You are correct that Italy and I have enough fleets for form a stalemate line — more than enough.

You and I are of the same mind. It will be easy to stop Turkey so long as Italy makes good moves. I will work on sending messages to Italy as to what the good moves are to block Turkey. I’m sure Italy will want to get into the draw with more centers if at all possible but I think Italy has to move Marseilles to Piedmont immediately, basically.

I’ll make sure to tell Italy that you and I are cooperating to stop Turkey and that as long as Italy does the right moves, we got this!!

Get him to support Vienna to Bud...might just catch him napping.

Secret Thoughts re: Austria #2

To my surprise, Austria claims to have thought up the same plan I did. I am inclined to believe Austria. Maybe Austria is more experienced than I was thinking before, because my tactical analysis was pretty convoluted. Either way, that's awesome, because if Austria follows that plan then we can definitely stop Turkey.

I'm glad Austria feels motivated to block Turkey from getting the win. I have been worried about the nihilism problem (because this tournament uses sum-of-squares scoring), especially after France, Russia, and then Germany succumbed to that problem rather quickly. I'm glad I have Austria as my partner vs. Turkey. Austria seems dependable, thoughtful, and motivated, especially considering the circumstances.

I am also rather impressed that Austria doesn't care about trying to keep Tunis. I suppose Austria either doesn't care all that much about getting into the draw with a bigger score, or else really really wants to make sure Turkey can't solo win (Austria did place a lot of trust in Turkey early on and promised to become my puppet if that didn't work out). Either way, that's good for me. Austria leaving the Vienna army near Turkey's line as a kind of saboteur could be one of several things I need to go my way to sneak in a solo win.

Messages with Italy

Well, dang. I'm glad I warned you about Turkey. And I'm REALLY glad you took my advice. We're good allies who know how to work together. If we hadn't made the right moves last turn, Turkey would probably be able to solo win.

1) Turkey attacked Ionian Sea, which means Austria was guaranteed to be able to retreat into one of your centers. Turkey NEVER intended to let you have a build this turn. Turkey betrayed you and is trying to get a solo win.
2) Look carefully: Turkey and Austria are back to working together. Austria moved Silesia to Munich and Turkey moved an army to Silesia. That means Turkey knew exactly which army Austria was going to use (I bet you Turkey attacked Ionian Sea to help Austria because they are working together).
3) Turkey is moving more and more armies into the center (Prussia, Silesia, Warsaw, Galicia) because Turkey needs to conquer Berlin or Munich to solo win. It's really obvious that this is Turkey's plan.
4) Thank God we agreed to move all your fleets eastward and to put my fleet in North Africa. Now, at the very least, we can put your fleet back into Tunis. If I hadn't moved my fleet into North Africa, you might be in a lot of trouble.

I think we need to send everything we have to block Turkey and form a stalemate line - do you agree? If you agree, I'll tell you what moves I think we should make.

I totally agree! What do you suggest I do?

Secret Thoughts re: Italy

My message to Italy is pretty much sincere and accurate. I do believe that if Italy had not done as I suggested, we would now be in far greater danger of a Turkish solo win.

The only thing I made up is the idea that Austria and Turkey might be colluding. I don't think that's true, but it couldn't hurt to give Italy the feeling that only one player (me) is on Italy's side.

Italy asked me for suggestions rather late in the turn, so I decided to just wait and see what Germany and Austria disband (and what Turkey builds) before suggesting anything. Italy sends few messages, so I think I should send 1 simple message next turn about what tactical choices I recommend for Italy.

Final Thoughts

I was never in any doubt that I would build an army at London. Austria and Italy have no reason to object to such a build, and in any event didn't even ask me about it. And I don't care what Germany and Turkey think.

I think Austria will disband Tunis. Austria has no reason to lie to me about wanting to disband Tunis.

I have no idea what Germany will disband. If Germany keeps Ruhr and/or Kiel, I'll blow them up immediately (by "blow up" I mean that I will dislodge them and Germany will have to disband the units when they are unable to retreat). If Germany keeps Baltic Sea, I'll just hold my position at Sweden and move into Kiel. If Germany keeps Livonia, perhaps Germany and Turkey will come after St. Petersburg...but I don't care. I can reclaim St. Petersburg at my leisure; Turkey isn't so close to 18 that taking St. Petersburg could make a difference. Losing St. Petersburg won't matter in the short run either because I can offset that loss by capturing Kiel.

Turkey might build 2 fleets (with the hope of overpowering Italy somehow), but Turkey might also build several armies (with the hope of tricking Italy into believing that Turkey doesn't want a solo win).

Let's find out!

Online Diplomacy Championship R1 Winter 190514 min read