Austria...why...ugh...

Well, rest in pieces Austria...

The level of frustration and disappointment I am feeling right now is difficult to describe. When I saw the outcome of the turn, I had to step away from the game for a day (easy to do, because of the retreat turn) to calm down and figure out what the heck I need to do about this colossal screw up. Austria's moves last turn are among the worst moves I have seen from a player in quite a long time (and I have played Diplomacy every day for almost 3 years now). I can't make sense of what Austria did last turn. In my view, Austria left all defenses lowered for no potential benefit. Sheesh. I just don't get it.

Previously, I wrote a lot about how I needed to break up the Italy/Austria/Turkey alliance if I am to solo win, and that's true. But what I've been imagining is the recipient of the attack putting up some kind of fight so that I have enough time to get into position for a solo win. I tried so, so hard to get Austria to put up a fight, and instead Austria has essentially surrendered everything to Turkey. As a consequence of Austria's suicidally-incompetent turn, I have to reassess whether a solo win is even possible for me. I have to consider if my strategy should now be to prevent Turkey from getting a solo win.

Let me explain what will soon happen:

Turkey cannot be stopped from taking Greece next turn. Turkey has 3 units in position to fight for Greece and Austria has just 1.
Turkey cannot be stopped from taking Warsaw next turn. Turkey has 3 units in position to fight for Warsaw and Austria has just 2.
Turkey gets a build this turn and has several units that I haven't accounted for with those first two attacks that are in offensive positions. Turkey will likely build an army at Constantinople which Turkey can then convoy to Greece or Rumania (and nobody can prevent such a convoy), setting up Turkey to take even more Austrian centers on subsequent turns
That means Turkey will end 1905 with a minimum of 10 SCs, probably 11, and maybe even more than that.

These developments are devastating to my plan. Turkey has a far, far easier time sending armies to the front than England does. Because the threat of my solo win is so far away, it seems fairly likely to me that Turkey will turn on Italy after Austria is defeated (I have been hoping to trick Italy so that I can solo win, but Italy might be tricked by Turkey instead). Turkey might even build up so much momentum that Turkey will be threatening Munich and Berlin before or around the same time I do. I thought there was no way Turkey would be a threat to Munich, but Austria just left everything wide open. Ugh....UGH!!!!!!

At this point, there's basically nothing I can do to save Austria:

Italy can take Trieste next turn and there's nothing Austria can do to stop it.
If Austria loses Greece, Warsaw, and Trieste, then Austria -- at a minimum -- goes down to 2 supply centers. If Italy and Turkey coordinate, Austria is likely to lose Budapest as well. I am confident that Austria will not have more than 2 supply centers by the end of 1905, and wouldn't be surprised if Austria has 1 or even 0.

For the record, I definitely think Austria deserves to be eliminated for trusting Turkey so much (never put your complete faith in Turkey when you play as Austria) and especially for making (in my opinion) poor tactical choices almost every turn, including last turn. I just wish Austria had played differently. I wish Austria was capable of self-defense, or had some interest in what I had to say. Ah well. Such is life.

What Do I Want To Accomplish This Turn?

I need to see if Austria is willing to keep that promise to become my "puppet" (whatever Austria thinks that means). I have a feeling, though, that Austria will actually refuse to listen to my advice and instead will make additional terrible moves until Austria is finished off (which could be as soon as 2 years). Honestly, Austria's positions are so freaking terrible that I don't think there's anything Austria can do to survive. I think Austria might have the ability to spite Turkey by helping me get into a better position vs. Germany or Italy before Austria is completely dead. That's about it. I think Austria's hope of making it into the draw is very slim.

In addition to Austria's absolutely awful current positions, I also consider Austria to be a weak player. Austria's messages to me are sparse, and the content comes across as vague, confused, and naive. Austria's strategy and tactics make no sense to me. Because I read Austria as a poor player, I don't know if I can even say anything that would appeal to Austria. What I mean is, if I say stuff to Austria that I know makes sense, but Austria doesn't understand, read, or care about what I have to say, then my efforts will be a waste of time.

Regardless, I need to make sure Italy appreciates the solo win threat of Turkey, and do everything I can to keep Italy on my side.

Finally, I need to do what I can to prevent Germany from thinking that powering up Turkey is the best chance Germany has at making it into the draw. In fact, that is definitely Germany's best chance of making it into the draw. If Germany fights like hell against me and has 2-3 centers by the time Turkey finishes off Austria, I might be forced to make a truce with Germany so that Germany can't throw the game to Turkey. More specifically, I want to see if I can somehow influence Germany into disbanding the units that I prefer.

Secret Thoughts re: Austria #1

Austria messaged me immediately after Turkey's backstab. I don't understand the tone Austria's going for here. It sounds like Austria is using the word "surprise" sarcastically, but if Austria suspected a Turkish attack then why did Austria leave all those Austrian centers undefended? Why is Austria referencing Venice, when I advised Austria to attack Tunis? This message is maddening...

I drafted a mean message to Austria and subsequently deleted that draft. Instead, I asked Austria about becoming my puppet. As I suspected, Austria thinks "being my puppet" means attacking Turkey, but guess what my friend? It's impossible to even resist (let alone attack) Turkey because you moved everything out of position. This gives me the impression that Austria, like Italy, thinks in emotional abstractions (i.e. "Turkey attacked me! Now I attack Turkey!") without considering what is possible or makes sense considering the actual game board.

Secret Thoughts re: Austria #2

I decided to be frank with Austria regarding how terrible a position Austria is now in. The following message is 100% sincere and honest.

Even though I'm hoping to get a positive response, I expect Austria to just get mad at me. A common problem with players who makes mistakes in games (Diplomacy included) is that those players are quick to blame everything other than themselves as to why things didn't go well (refusal to admit to mistakes is possibly even a major cause of the mistakes; you can't learn from your mistakes if you don't think you make any).

However, my previous efforts to communicate with Austria haven't accomplished anything anyways (obviously), so at this point I think I have nothing to lose. By virtue of Austria's terrible position, there's almost nothing Austria can do to help or harm me.

Messages with Austria #2

I am very experienced at Diplomacy, and I am willing and able to help you. But for me to help you, you have to listen carefully to what I have to say.

In your previous message, you complained to me that you wouldn’t have gotten Venice anyways — I don’t understand why you said this to me. I didn’t encourage you to attack Venice, I encouraged you to attack Tunis. So I have to ask myself — did you even read my messages?

To be honest, I don’t understand what you’re doing, because your moves don’t make sense and are not consistent with your messages to me. You said last turn that you were defending Germany, but then you just attacked Germany as much as you possibly could. So I think to myself: were you lying to me, or did you not know what’s going on?

So let me try again to level with you:

Unless you have Italy 100% on your side (you don’t), you’re going to lose all your centers to Turkey in two years or less. Because your units are in the wrong positions, Turkey will force you out of Warsaw AND Greece next turn — and there’s nothing you can do to stop this. In addition, if Italy attacks Trieste, there’s nothing you can do to stop that either. If Turkey and Italy coordinate, and you
make even a slight mistake, they can probably take Budapest from you as well next Autumn.

I am 100% sure that you will have 2 or 1 centers by the end of 1905, and there’s nothing you can do about it because you were tricked so badly by Turkey. With just 1 or 2 centers, you won’t be able to defend yourself and will be elminated in 1906.

There is almost literally nothing you can do to stop Turkey from taking your centers because Turkey lured you into taking indefensible positions.

In my opinion, you only have a couple of options left before you get blown away by Turkey:

1) Try to take revenge on Turkey by throwing the game to me. Right now, I am temporarily stronger than Turkey, but as soon as Turkey takes your centers in 1905, Turkey will be the strongest power in the map. It is possible for me to solo win before Turkey gets strong enough to stop me, but only if I have your help. I would need you to help me finish off Germany, harass Italy, and try to help me take Moscow from Turkey.

2) Try as struggle as hard as possible to make it into the draw. This means taking positions that are actually defensible. None of the centers you currently have are defensible. You will need to try to take Italian and German centers that are further away from Turkey so that you can be on the stalemate line and have a shot at making it into the draw.

That’s it. Those are the only 2 strategies available to you. If you are not willing to attack Italy or Germany, then I’m not wasting another moment of my time messaging you, because if you only resist Turkey (which you can’t, you don’t actually have the positions to stop Turkey. You’re too late and you screwed up), you’re going to have 1-2 centers by the end of next year and dead the next.

Reply by telling me whether you want to follow strategy 1 (throw to England) or strategy 2 (fight for a defensible supply center), or else I’m probably going to stop messaging you.

I’m sorry, maybe the tone I’m taking is too stern. I’m not trying to be a jerk. I genuinely want to help you. I think your position is dire and we haven’t been communicating well, so I am trying to be as clear as possible about what I am willing do for you, if you want my help.

Messages with Austria #3

You misunderstood my comments about Germany -- I was defending my position in Germany, not defending Germany. I'm also not sure why you want Italy weakened yet -- you need Italy to fight turkey at least for a while. I have reached the same conclusion -- to live I need to flee west as so many tribes before have fled the horrors coming from the East from the Goths to the Franks and the Aleman. I am also prepared to do what I can to get you into STP and the north....but I have 2 turns to do either....how much help will offer in Germany?

Friend, you're dead in the water and have no chance of survival unless I help you as much as I possibly can and also a miracle occurs. You gotta take it on faith that I know what I'm doing, because if I don't you're a goner anyways.

You need to attack/harass Italy because that is the only way you'll survive long-term. If I play for a 3-way draw with Italy and Turkey, then it doesn't matter if you sneak into German centers or not; all your centers will be conquered no matter where they are located. In order for you to survive, you need me (and only me) to attempt a solo win so that Turkey and Italy will give up on attacking you. But if Italy gets even a little bit stronger by taking your centers, then I'll have no chance of getting a solo win and just play for a 3-way draw with Italy and Turkey. Italy already has the positions to take Trieste from you next turn and there's nothing you can do to stop it. Therefore, unless you help me attack Italy immediately, you have no chance of surviving this match.

As far as what help I can offer vs. Germany, that really depends on what units Germany disbands. Germany will have to disband 3 other units this turn. We see which units Germany disbands, I'll get back to you on what our plan can be. I am definitely willing to help you get Berlin and/or Munich if at all possible.

Messages with Austria #4

OK. Italy only has the assured Tri if he abandons Tyrol to do it -- not sure he won't try it from Ven to keep his positions -- and that I can block if committed to do so. And then there is the 50/50 in the Med.

It's possible that he will try to take Trieste with Venice, but if he has armies in Venice and Trieste, Italy can take Trieste even if you have control of Tyrolia. Nevertheless, it won't be a bad move for you to move to Tyrolia either way. It's a decent position.

I'll try to help you with your 50/50 in the med by trying to find out where Italy wants to move.

I'll get back to you after we see what Germany gets rid of. Godspeed my friend.

Secret Thoughts re: Austria #4

Finally, Austria is talking about attacking Italy. That's talking some sense!

And it's also exactly what I want if I'm going to try for a solo win. Whatever Austria can do to harass Germany and Italy (in the west, not the east) before Austria goes down is a plus to me.

I'm hoping that Austria will get an army into Tyrolia, because that could be used to harass Germany or maybe to move to Piedmont (on the promise that I'll help Austria take Marseilles; I won't actually help Austria take Marseilles, but I could promise to do so to trick Austria into cutting Italy's support while I take Spain).

Messages with Italy

Okay well that went fairly well for me, but perhaps amazingly for Turkey. Not only did Turkey’s stab work, but Turkey can’t be stopped from taking Warsaw and Greece immediately next turn. Hoooo boy. I did not think Austria would make such bad moves so as to become a dead-man-walking. But here we are.

As you can see, I’m honoring our alliance because, as I said, I need you as a bulwark against Turkey. That’s true more than ever now. I realize I am ahead of Turkey temporarily, but Turkey has the ability to make many gains quickly and has units in position to make strong attacks everywhere on the map as soon as Turkey consolidates. By contrast, even if I throw everything I have at Germany it’s going to be difficult to finish off Germany. That’s partly why I was willing to move my feels backwards to fight a Germany if necessary (I got bounced, but I was willing to make the moves as you can see).

Up until now I was wondering if I might be able to try for a solo win after finishing off Germany, but I now think that is out of the question because Turkey would just end up being the one to solo win. In my opinion, unless you can get a lot of builds quickly (which I don’t think you can unless Turkey let’s you — but how many builds did Turkey ever let Austria get, hm?) Turkey will be able to quickly and easily turn on you after Austria goes down.

For that reason, I’m willing to do a lot to cooperate with you. I want you to feel safe enough that you can commit more units to capturing Austrian centers, guard against Austria, and later have a strong defense against Turkey.

Even more than I did before, think Austria is going to get desperate and that you are the one in danger.

Let’s keep talking on how to make this game end smoothly. I am really nervous about the possibility of Turkish solo win down the road and I want to help you as best I can.

I plan to build at least 2 armies, maybe 3. Do you have any problem with this?

No, sir. I understand they are needed to finish off the Germans.

I'm glad you see the point in honouring our alliance, we really have to stick together in these times.

Secret Thoughts re: Italy

First, I'm trying to convey to Italy my sincerely-held belief that Turkey is potentially a solo-win threat. I want to do so without being forceful about it. I don't want to patronize or reprimand Italy, especially as Italy has done pretty much as I have asked and has played a decent game so far.

In order to build up my credibility, I made sure to emphasize that I have consistently acted as Italy's ally (true, in terms of my actual moves) and my desire to finish off Germany (which is so natural as to be obvious). Whether or not I backstab Italy, it is beneficial for me to have Italy on my side. I pointed out that I tried to move my fleet backwards (from Portugal), which Italy can see but might be flattered if I point that out.

To enhance my credibility further, I offhandedly mentioned that I have been considering a solo win attempt. There's no reason for me to conceal that (it's obvious and all the players have mentioned it, I think). Such a confession is necessarily honest, as it defies common sense to claim to be considering a solo win attempt when that isn't on your mind. But I made this into something innocuous by saying that I no longer feel that way because Turkey is too strong. This is a really clever diplomatic tactic, in my opinion, because now I can explain away or account for anything Italy thinks that I've previously done towards seeking a solo win. I'm saying here (insincerely) that I've dropped the solo win goal and from here on out I'm sticking with Italy.

Also, please notice how I said that I'm planning to build some armies as though I need Italy's permission to do this. There are two tactical benefits here

I pretend like I care about Italy getting upset about my fleet build last year -- like I'm trying to respect Italy's unstated wish to know in advance what my builds will be. This kind of courtesy can go a long way in establishing rapport.
I'm sneaking in the idea that I might build less than 3 armies. If I were really going to be Italy's ally until the end, I wouldn't need any more fleets. But I might want to sneak in a fleet build in case I attack Italy all-out next turn. I'm not sure if I'll build 3 armies or not at this point because I haven't planned out my next turn completely, but I wanted Italy to have this opportunity to criticize the possibility that I would build a fleet (and fail to do so). That way if I do build a fleet, I can say "Italy, I got your permission" and Italy will probably back down (or be too embarrassed to bring it up in the first place).

I guess I have to deem Italy's short response sincere, since Italy has been honest with me up until now with short replies like this.

Messages with Turkey

Well, that’s a badass backstab if I ever saw one. Austria will be dead in 2 years at most.

It would have helped if Italy came for him, too. It's a little annoying that he bounced Greece.

I encouraged Italy to attack Austria; Italy's move to Venice makes no tactical sense; Italy could have guarded Venice and also move to Tyrolia. Oh well.

Nevertheless, your next turn should go well effortlessly. You can't be stopped from taking Warsaw or Greece, and Italy can take Trieste for sure. If you play it right you could eliminate Austria or put Austria down to 1 center. Sheesh.

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey

I'm mostly just shooting the breeze with Turkey. I suspect that Turkey, like me, is scheming on how to somehow achieve a solo win. But probably neither of us would admit that to the other!

I actually hope that Turkey is considering a solo-win attempt. If Turkey does not try for a solo win by attacking Italy, it might be really difficult for me to solo now that Austria is dead in the water. What I'm hoping is for Turkey to attempt a solo win by attacking Italy right before I do (or to get into position to do so), scaring Italy into backing away from me. Then I maybe I could get away with attacking Italy right when Turkey and Italy go to war. I even wonder if Turkey and I will attack Italy at the same time and wind up in a race for the solo win.

In order to trigger this scenario, I might have to lull Turkey into thinking that I don't think Turkey is a serious solo-win contender while also convince Italy of the opposite. It's a long shot, but I'm always trying to get a solo win if I can.

Messages with Germany

Thanks for the bounce. I expected Turkey not to honor that promise too. I did NOT expect Austria to play so poorly, so now there's that.

Austria is begging for my help in taking your centers at Munich and Berlin (to escape from Turkey and make it into the draw) in return for my help vs. Italy and to keep Turkey out of STP. I do want Austria's help, but I also don't want to waste my time putting Austria on life support (I don't think I can actually help Austria do that even if I wanted to). But just FYI.

I figure that you would want to keep 4 units that are relatively close to your home centers so that you have the best ability to support-hold against future attacks (from any/every direction). I'm wondering if you'll disband Burgundy specifically.

If you are considering disbanding Burgundy, let me encourage you to do so. I'd like to send Paris against Italy next turn.

Secret Thoughts re: Germany

I'm just trying to do what I can to stay on polite terms with Germany, even though I'm certainly Germany's worst enemy at this point.

I informed Germany about Austria's messaging with me (with some embellishment) just to put fear into Germany that Austria will backdoor Munich and Berlin. I want Germany to keep all the units that are further from me, such as the armies in Munich and Berlin, so that I have room to maneouver next turn (I might attack Germany, but I might attack Italy; I'm not sure yet).

I would really love it if Germany disbanded Denmark and Baltic Sea, but I think if I directly ask for that, it will alarm Germany and Germany won't comply. Instead, I'll just request that Germany disband Burgundy. I really just want Germany to get rid of Burgundy so that I have an easier time making convoys next turn (perhaps a convoy into Belgium), but I have a plausible explanation that I could attack Italy sooner if Burgundy is gone. Who knows if what I'm saying will work or not.

I can't really know if I'm going to attack Germany all-out or not until I see which units Germany actually has left.

Final Thoughts

One backstab follows another. The mid-game board continues to develop. My hope of a solo win is reduced, but not gone.

Now that I've calmed down a bit, I can think through the moves I need to make on the upcoming turn and choose my builds accordingly. Properly choosing which units to build (army or fleet) and which home centers to build them from (London, Edinburgh, or Liverpool) is critical to success as England.

In my judgment, inexperienced players frequently build far too many fleets as England, and those fleets ultimately become useless in contesting land-locked centers essential to an English solo win (e.g., Munich). Almost every turn you get a build as England, you feel like what you really need is another fleet. The armies have such limited mobility and rarely have any immediate use even if you successfully convoy them (which is not necessarily a given!). Thus, as England, it always seems like armies are inferior to fleets -- they're harder to use and move poorly. In my opinion, that's....true. The armies have limited immediate use and are usually quite a hassle to get into relevant positions. Nevertheless, a successful English player must be far-sighted and appreciate the need to build armies almost non-stop once it becomes practical to do so. Otherwise, a solo win will never be possible.

[Apologies, but I forgot to save a preview screenshot and then the turn ended, so I'm not able to create one once the turn passed.]

I decided to build an army at London and Liverpool, and a fleet at Edinburgh. My analysis is pretty straightforward:

I need to build at least 2 armies. 3 would be good, but at least 2.
I can almost certainly convoy with English Channel next turn, even if I have to double convoy with Mid-Atlantic Ocean. I should build an army at London.
I should build an army at Liverpool because a fleet build there can't really do anything for me anyways. I'll move the army somewhere around Great Britain to be convoyed the following Autumn.
I can see that if Germany keeps Burgundy, Ruhr, and Kiel, then Germany could destroy my army at Holland unless I support-hold Holland with North Sea. Even if Germany disbands Burgundy, I have to support-hold Holland with North Sea with I don't want Holland to be dislodged. Therefore, I might decide to support-hold Holland with North Sea. Accordingly, it isn't pressing to build an army in Edinburgh. In fact, if my armies get log-jammed I could end up losing one of my centers somewhere and have to disband, which would negate my having built a 3rd army.
A fleet in Edinburgh could be moved to Norwegian Sea (together with moving the Liverpool army to Edinburgh for a convoy) for use in fighting for St. Petersburg (which I might have to do). I could also move the fleet to backfill North Sea (which can convoy the Liverpool army after that army moves to Edinburgh) after moving North Sea to Heligoland Bight (if I decide against a support-hold for Holland). Therefore, a fleet build in Edinburgh is tactically advantageous as it allows me to convoy my Liverpool army in Autumn a lot of different ways, and I need to keep my options open because I don't know what Germany will disband.

Online Diplomacy Championship R1 Winter 190424 min read