Hrmph... Austria Disbanded Vienna

I was just starting to change my mind about Austria's ability, but now I'm sure Austria is incompetent.

I'll remark on what I can infer from the builds, starting with Austria:

Austria is incompetent. Either Austria really intended to disband Tunis instead of Vienna and just forgot (a misorder), or Austria was lying to me about wanting to disband Vienna for no reason because I already had no problem with Austria keeping Tunis in the first place. Either of these lowers my esteem of Austria's ability greatly.
- I think Austria entered a misorder, which worries me. Last turn, I explained in great detail in this journal (and to Austria) how Austria needs to make very precise moves to prevent Turkey and Germany from putting Turkey's armies into Munich and/or Berlin. I will lose my @#$% mind if Turkey gets a solo win just because Austria enters a misorder. I wrote about how I felt good about picking Austria as my ally because Austria seemed to be paying attention and was responding to my messages, and then Austria immediately proved unworthy of that trust. Immediately.
Germany kept Kiel. That's what I had been suspecting as the most likely choice, because an army at Kiel gives Germany the only chance to throw the game to Turkey (and Germany did have a stated intention to throw the match).
- Thus, it is absolutely critical that Austria follows me precise tactical plan on how to block Turkey from getting into Berlin.
Turkey built two armies, which is probably the right choice for setting up a solo win. It's pretty clear that Italy won't be easily overpowered, and those armies will be useful in maintain total control of the center of the map.
- Plus Turkey had to be worried about Germany keeping the army at Livonia and might have needed to send an extra army to Moscow to block that.

What Do I Want To Accomplish This Turn?

It's very simple: I need to make sure Austria and Italy agree to a defensive plan and then execute that plan.

Possible issues:

Because Austria kept Tunis, I need to find out:
- Does Austria expect to keep Tunis? If so, will Austria throw the game to Turkey if Italy and I destroy Austria's fleet at Tunis (something Italy and I can easily do)?
- Does Italy expect to take Tunis back from Austria? If so, and Austria expects to keep Tunis, can I talk Italy into giving up that ambition?
Turkey might talk Austria and/or Italy into doing something stupid -- something that either throws the game to Turkey, or creates a situation that allows Turkey to solo win. I need to prevent this.
- For example, Turkey might try to convince them that I, England, am the real solo threat.
- Turkey might persuade Austria that Austria will be cut out of the draw and that Austria needs to throw immediately or suffer the fate of Germany.
- Turkey might meddling with the negotiation of who is supposed to control Tunis (e.g., Turkey promises Tunis to Italy and Italy accepts the promise, but then this deal angers Austria).

Therefore, I need to negotiate what happens with Tunis carefully. I also need to make sure Austria and Italy don't get infected by Turkey's meddling.

If somehow in the process of figuring out this plan, I see a way for myself to solo win, I'll take a chance. But right now, Austria and Italy could probably throw to Turkey (either of them) if I attempted a solo win.

Let's take a look at my gunboat solo win map for Turkey

Turkey's "A" plan is to take over the entire south plus Munich. But if Turkey allies Russia ("Juggernaut"), Turkey can sometimes win by taking over the Mediterranean.

Although I created this map to help explain Turkish strategy for gunboat Diplomacy (and thus this map it not completely applicable to press game strategy), I am time-constrained in writing this journal and this map is a convenient illustration for my thinking.

In this particular match, Turkey will easily be able to gain control of Vienna and Trieste, and Turkey already has Warsaw and Moscow. That will put Turkey at a total of 13 supply centers. If Turkey can overpower Italy (easier in this match that you might think; Turkey has a ton of units and good momentum), then that puts Turkey at 16. To solo win, Turkey will have to get 2 of the following: Tunis, Munich, Berlin. I think I can rule out the possibility of Turkey getting into St. Petersburg or past Tunis for the win, because I can easily control and defend those parts of the map.

With this in mind, you will understand, dear reader, why I consider Austria by far my most important partner in stopping a Turkish solo win: Austria currently controls all 3 centers Turkey might need to get the solo win.

Although it is definitely still possible for Austria and I to stop Turkey, we need to make perfect moves. Germany is behind our lines at Kiel and has one last turn to do something disruptive before getting eliminated. Any mistakes will definitely be exploited by a player of Turkey's caliber. If I were in Turkey's position, I'd be counting on Austrian mistakes to have a shot at the solo win.

Finally, if I am to get a solo win myself, here's what will have to happen: Italy, Austria and I will have to slow down Turkey long enough that I'm able to get into position to take Munich and Berlin for myself without Turkey + another power being able to immediately push my armies right back out. If I can create a tactical situation where I have armies in Munich and Berlin plus positions in Burgundy, Ruhr, Kiel, and Baltic Sea from which to support-hold Munich and Berlin, that will allow be to form a "stalemate" position that includes Munich and Berlin. If I can create that scenario, it will definitely be worth attempting my own solo win. Take a look:

All Northern centers, plus Tunis, Moscow, or Warsaw.

Again, although this is a map I created to explain gunboat Diplomacy, I think this is helpful as a visual illustration of how close I am to a solo win this match.

To make a stalemate position running through Munich and Berlin, in addition to the armies actually in Munich and Berlin, I'll need units at 3/4 of the following positions: Burgundy, Ruhr, Kiel, Baltic Sea. If I have 3/4 of those positions, I can do 2 support-hold orders on Munich and 1 support-hold order on Berlin. That's an unbreakable position, because my rivals could only possibly assemble armies at Tyrolia, Bohemia, Silesia and Prussia -- and from those territories, there is no possible attack that could overcome my defensive configuration.

At the same time, I would almost certainly be able to easily steal Spain and Marseilles from Italy. That would bring me up to 17 centers. If I control 17 centers, I will no longer care at all about Turkey's ability to solo win; I'll have 50% of the centers already myself. The match would then come down to whether I am somehow able to outplay Austria/Italy/Turkey for control of Tunis. That would be very difficult, and probably I wouldn't solo win, but I would at least try. Plus, ending the match with 17 centers would still give me a high score in the draw.

Note: The difficulty of acquiring Tunis during an endgame fight is why, at the start of this journal, I kept writing about how it was important for me to get control of Tunis before backstabbing Germany. From both a diplomatic and tactical perspective, it is much easier for England to acquire Tunis during midgame than endgame (and Tunis is often needed for England to solo win). Obviously, I decided to act against my own advice in this regard, and now I'm facing the consequences of that choice.

Messages with Austria #1

Oh crap, missed changing the order.

That’s okay — I had assumed before that you were just going to keep Tunis anyways. It shouldn’t make a difference in the long run.

If you truly wanted to keep Tunis for some reason, it’s okay to just tell me if t wasn’t really an accident. I don’t care either way. I don’t want you to feel like I was pressuring you to destroy Tunis and you didn’t want to, so you have to say it was a misorder.

Okay one thing we should try to do since you did keep Tunis is to regain control of Ionian Sea. Will you cooperate with that?

Here’s what I was thinking, I’ll have to get Italy to cooperate too:

TYR to ION, supported by Tunis and Naples.
WMS to TYR

In the center of the map, we definitely need to proceed as planned because Germany is going to try to throw to Turkey, undoubtedly.

Burgundy support-hold Munich
Belgium to Ruhr supported by holland
Denmark to Kiel supported by Heligoland bight
Sweden to Baltic Sea

Then you gotta do:
Munich support-hold Berlin
Bohemia to Silesia

Please make sure that you enter:
Bohemia to Silesia

No matter what, or we might be screwed.

Actually, I just realized that I don't have to support-hold Munich. I'm going to attack Kiel and you're going to attack Silesia, so there's no way that Germany/Turkey can possibly take Munich from you if we stick to this plan. Instead, I'll use Burgundy to support Belgium to Ruhr.

Hoping to hear back from you tonight — just want to confirm orders.

Yes, I had already ordered the attack on Sil. I have Tun bumping Ionian, unless you tell me something else. I don't mind losing it either way.

Okay great!! Wonderful 🙂

Remember: Munich support hold Berlin

Also, would you change Tunis to “support TYR to ION” ? I am trying to talk Italy into move TYR to ION supported by Naples. If you support too, it’ll work for sure!

So ordered.

Secret Thoughts re: Austria #1

Austria immediately made an excuse about forgetting to change the order, and the quickness of the message is the only thing that makes me think Austria might have been lying to me about wanting to disband Tunis. What I mean is, I think it's somewhat suspicious to be logging in frequently and also making misorders. Someone who truly made a misorder is probably not paying attention to the game, and accordingly wouldn't be logging on very often. A player who lies has had some time to think about what the cover story will be ("it was a misorder!").

For the life of me though, I can't figure out what benefit Austria would get from deceiving me about that disband. There's nothing I would have done differently either way, so what would be accomplished by lying? That's why I nevertheless think that Austria is telling the truth.

But if there's something going on in Austria's brain that motivated Austria to lie, I'd really like to know what that is. So I'm playing it off like Austria's "misorder" is no big deal, and asking Austria to come clean just so I can know the truth. I have no idea if my appeal will really work, but sometimes people feel guilty and will confess that they were lying.

Since Austria did keep Tunis, I decided to presume that Austria wants to keep control of Tunis and suggested a plan that will allow Austria to keep Tunis.

Thoughts re: Austria, continued

As far as my tactical suggestions for Austria go, it's really important that Austria make the moves I'm suggesting. Let me explain:

I will move Belgium to Ruhr supported by Burgundy, which Germany cannot (alone) stop from succeeding. I will also move either Holland or Denmark to Kiel (either one supported by the other, or supported by Heligoland Bight), which Germany cannot (alone) stop from succeeding. I will move Sweden to Baltic Sea, which cannot be stopped. Thus, after this turn I will have armies in Burgundy, Ruhr and Kiel, and a fleet in Baltic Sea.
Because I am attacking Kiel, any support order Germany makes will be cut. Germany surely anticipates that I'm going to attack Kiel, so Germany will almost certainly order Kiel to move. That order will either be to Munich (to cut Austria's ability to support-hold Berlin) or to Berlin (with support from Turkey's two armies).
- If the first scenario comes to pass (Germany's army pokes Munich), Germany's move will fail (because the only unit that would support Germany's move, the army at Bohemia, will be poked by Austria) and then Germany's army will be destroyed and that's the last of Germany. However, Turkey will almost certainly move the army at Silesia to Berlin supported by Prussia. Turkey's army will successfully enter Berlin. Austria's army at Berlin will be dislodged and have nowhere to retreat, so Austria's army at Berlin will be disbanded (a.k.a. destroyed, just like Germany's army at Kiel).
  - If Austria somehow gets into Silesia with Bohemia, then the follow-up will be easy: I can just support Austria's army at Silesia into Berlin using my units at Kiel and Baltic Sea (likely destroying Turkey's army at Berlin).
  - If Austria's move to Silesia fails because Turkey bounces Austrian's Bohemian army out of Silesia (using Warsaw or Galicia), then the follow-up move is still easy but less obvious: I will have to support Austria's army at Munich to Berlin (using my units at Kiel and Baltic Sea) and support Austria's army at Bohemia to Munich (using my armies at Burgundy, Ruhr, or both) to dislodge Turkey's army from Berlin and also prevent Turkey from making a successful supported attack on Munich.
  - If Austria's move to Silesia fails because Turkey makes a supported move to Silesia (using Warsaw and Galicia together), we will have to use an even trickier solution. Turkey will have armies at Prussia and Silesia that can do support-hold orders on Berlin. To overcome this, Austria will have to move Munich to Berlin (supported by my units at Kiel and Baltic Sea) and move Bohemia to Silesia (to cut Turkey's support), leaving Munich open. The only way for me to protect Munich without taking Munich from Austria will be to self-bounce Burgundy and Ruhr off of each other at Munich. Whew!!!
- If the second scenario comes to pass (Germany tries to take Berlin with Turkey's support), then there are two tactical scenarios depending on what Turkey does with Silesia. Obviously, Turkey would use Prussia to support Germany's army into Berlin.
  - If Turkey also uses Silesia to support Germany's army into Berlin, Berlin will be successfully defended. Munich's support-hold of Berlin won't be cut, and Austria will cut Silesia's support using Bohemia.
  - If Turkey uses Silesia to cut Munich's support, then Germany's army will successfully get into Berlin (and Austria's Berlin army will be destroyed). This will result in the same tactical situation as Turkey the point above where I said "Whew!!", because enemy armies will be at Berlin, Prussia and Silesia.
If somehow Austria fails to defend Berlin and Munich in the way I'm describing, I'll be in serious danger. Turkey will capture Berlin and be able to send in more armies to reinforce that capture.
- Berlin is "on the other side of the stalemate line" and one of the centers Turkey might need to reach 18 (win condition) instead of 17 (draw).
- I also think that if Austria blows it this turn, Austria might just give in to nihilism like all the other players. Austria might start thinking "oh well, we lose, who cares" and not do the work necessary to prevent Turkey from solo-winning because there will be so little Austria will even have to gain from the draw, and the fun of trying to stop Turkey might be diminished because Austria will feel like we're losing. Morale is something to consider at all times, but especially in sum-of-squares scoring.

I'm not even going to go into which of these scenarios would create the best opportunity for me to backstab Austria and steal Munich and Berlin for myself. I'll discuss that if/when they actually arise.

Messages with Italy #1

First, don't listen to Turkey. I've gotten messages from Turkey that I can tell are just trying to trick me into making a mistake so that Turkey can solo win.

Next, answer me this: are you willing to bypass Tunis if Austria insists that we let Austria keep Tunis? Right now, Austria probably has the ability to throw the match to Turkey. Previously, Austria was telling me that Austria was going to disband Tunis and keep Vienna. But that's not what Austria actually did.

I'm going to find out if Austria is OK with putting your fleet into Tunis, and if so then that's that. But if Austria says "no you need to let me have Tunis" then I think we should comply because the situation is so dangerous.

If Austria keeps Tunis, then maybe Austria will support your fleet back into Ionian Sea, which would be really good. So that means before I can be sure of all our moves, I need to find out from Austria what's going to happen with Tunis.

Until then, would you put in these orders?

TYR to ION
NAP support TYR to ION
WMS to TYR
(if Austria supports you with Tunis, this will work. If we want to take Tunis from Austria, we should do that in the fall anyways)

VEN to TYR
TRI support VEN to TYR
MAR to PIE

This sets you up to form a defensive position that includes Trieste. I expect that Turkey will falsely promise to support your army at Trieste to Vienna, and then instead use Galicia and Budapest to make a supported attack on Vienna, wasting your move. But if you move your Venice army to Tyrolia, you block of Turkey from being able to eventually flank your position (we might win or lose based on whether we stop Turkey from getting into Tyrolia). In Autumn, you can move from Piedmont to Venice if the situation looks good, creating a little wall of armies.

In the long run, Turkey will be able to take Trieste from you. Turkey will have units lined up in Albania, Serbia, Budapest, Vienna and maybe even Adriatic Sea too, which is just way too many for you to hold off Trieste forever. But slowing Turkey down could give you enough time for us to form a stalemate line at your home centers.

So because I think you need all 3 of your armies to defend yourself, and because I think you will eventually have to disband a unit when you lose Trieste, I think you will eventually need to disband one of your fleets. With that in mind, do I have your permission to move Portugal to Spain (during the spring turn) and then to either WMS or GoL during the Autumn turn? I will bypass your center and not take anything from you, but I'll have my fleet in position to form a stalemate line vs. Turkey later for when you eventually lose a unit. (If you won't agree to do this, I won't do it, but I do think it is prudent)

Secret Thoughts re: Italy #1

Ugh, once again I feel myself compelled to write a really long message to Italy even though I was saying last turn that I should only write a short response. I just can't...help...myself. The ideas I want to convey are just too complicated. Not only is there a lot of thinking underpinning my suggestions, but some of the ideas are contingent (in the sense that I have ideas about what we should be doing now to deal with possible future situations). That all requires a lot of explanation.

So right off the bat, I want to discourage Italy from listening to Turkey. Not only do I think that could be directly helpful, but it might trigger Italy to tell me what Turkey is saying (since I claimed that Turkey is trying to trick me, which isn't exactly true).

I definitely have to find out if Italy is willing to bypass Tunis or not. My whole house of cards could come crashing down if Austria and/or Italy are willing to risk losing the game to a Turkish solo win over Tunis. It's a real shame that both players are sending extremely few messages (1 per turn), because that gives me almost no opportunity to negotiate.

If I find out that Italy and Austria are both willing to die on the hill known as Tunis, then I'll have to start plotting on which one I'm going to side with. To be honest, dear reader, I would probably side with Austria. Austria has the ability to help me form a stalemate line running through Munich and Berlin, without which Turkey cannot win. Even if Turkey were to take Trieste + all the Italian home centers, Turkey wouldn't solo win. In other words, as long as I can make a surprise attack on Italy such that Italy isn't able to throw the game to Turkey, Italy is expendable. So if Italy refuses to let Austria have Tunis and Austria insists on having it, I'm probably going to side with Austria.

Related to this, I have to make up my mind on whether I would threaten Italy with attack if Italy insists on having Tunis (to try to knock some sense into Italy). Right now I think...no. I think that threatening to attack Italy over Tunis might cause Italy to panic, lose interest in being my ally, and so on. Italy is already paying little attention to the game, so I probably wouldn't be able to explain the strategic situation fast enough to get Italy to comply. Instead, if Italy insists on having Tunis despite my suggestion that we not do that, I will tell Italy that we should take Tunis in the Autumn, and then probably attack Italy while defending Austria at Tunis. That's what I'm thinking right now.

My suggested orders to Italy are not exactly sincerely motivated. I really just want to manipulate Italy into moving as far east as possible. It's not necessary for Italy to move Marseilles to Piedmont (yet) because Turkey is still a little while away from attacking Italian home centers, and because Italy is likely to lose Trieste no matter how many armies Italy sends that way. But maybe I can coax Italy into sending those units east just based on a vague idea that Turkey needs to be slowed down. That could be the kind of trick I need to get away with to be able to solo win eventually.

If Austria agrees to support Italy's fleet into Ionian Sea, then that would be awesome for two reasons: 1) That actually would seriously slow down Turkey's attack; and 2) That would move Italy's units one more space away from me.

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey

I still have nothing to say to Turkey. I strongly suspect that Turkey is setting up for a solo win attempt just from where Turkey's units are on the board. I still think that anything Turkey says to me (or to anyone else) will be lies and manipulations to set up that solo win attempt.

If I could think of a really creative lie that would somehow cause Turkey to make a mistake, I would give that a try. But I can't think of anything. Instead, I'm going to keep giving Turkey the silent treatment. Turkey is smart enough to know just from looking at the board that I am coordinating with other powers in an anti-Turkish coalition. So I don't think I can gain anything by talking. Saying something might give Turkey information helpful to manipulating other powers. Saying something deceptive to Turkey could hurt my credibility for no gain.

So I'd rather just say nothing and preserve my credibility for a critical moment when I might actually be able to trick Turkey somehow (e.g., maybe I'll say, down the road, "Okay I believe you're not going for a solo win, let's split Munich and Berlin" to trick Turkey into not support-holding Austria's positions, and then just take both for myself).

Messages with Italy #2

Hey hoping to hear back from you tonight. Just want to confirm orders.

Okay please be aware: I haven’t heard from you at all this turn, but I see that you’ve entered orders. I don’t know why you’ve entered orders without confirming with me what our plan is. This is distressing to me, because I don’t know if you’re about to be tricked by turkey.

I’m going to support-hold Tunis and move English Channel to MAO because I don’t know what you’re about to do. If you don’t want me to do those moves, you need to respond to me.

Actually, I can just self-bounce Portugal and MAO -- I'll do that. I want to be clear that I'm not going for a solo win or whittling down the draw. I'm just playing for a draw with Turkey.

Secret Thoughts re: Italy #2

I hope that Italy entered the orders I suggested and lazily did not respond to my message (entirely plausible). However, it is possible that Turkey has gotten into Italy's head and Italy decided that I'm the enemy now instead of Turkey (and so Italy isn't bothering to message me, which is also entirely plausible).

I don't want to encroach on Italy too much and create a self-fulfilling prophecy where Italy and/or Austria interpret what I'm doing as a backstab against Italy. (Remember, I don't want to backstab Italy unless I can also get Munich and Berlin.) But on the other hand, if Italy does move units towards me and I don't defend myself, three bad scenarios could happen:

Italy could cause Turkey to solo win by successfully moving units away from Turkey on the turn that Turkey attacks Italy.
Italy could lower my final draw score by taking my centers.
Italy could wreck my ability to solo win by setting up a strong defensive position.

Any of these would be terrible for me. I have to take some kind of preventative action. I'm seriously worried that Italy is about to move against me.

Italy's unresponsiveness is extremely frustrating and disappointing.

Messages with Austria #2

Excellent, thank you.

Just FYI - Italy has not messaged me even once this turn, yet still entered orders. I don’t know if Italy entered the orders I suggested for fighting Turkey, or if Turkey somehow got to Italy and Italy is about to attack us. I really don’t.

This problem doesn’t change what you and I need to do vs Germany and Turkey, but I might move English Channel to MAO (I was NOT going to do that last night, but now I’m worried). If Italy doesn’t respond to me and I do that move, I just wante you to have advance warning so you don’t think I’m trying to go for a solo win. Such a move would just be to guard against Italy in case Italy has been tricked into working with Turkey, and only because Italy never replied to me.

I’m also going to support-hold Tunis just in case.

Actually, I can just self-bounce Portugal and MAO -- I'll do that. I want to be clear that I'm not going for a solo win or whittling down the draw. I'm just playing for a draw with Turkey.

Secret Thoughts re: Austria #2

It's 2 hours before the turn ends and I'm panicking a little bit. Everything I'm saying to Austria about the situation is true. Italy has not messaged me back, but I can see that all countries have entered orders. I have to assume that something bad is about to happen.

I'm warning Austria about my intentions so that Austria doesn't get freaked out. I don't want Austria to believe that I backstabbed Italy (and in fact, I don't want to backstab Italy and I am not doing so).

Final Thoughts

I went around and around in my mind to figure out what moves I should make in the context of Italy never having messaged me this turn.

I'll write through my tactical decisions in order of southwest to northeast.

I'm going to support-hold Tunis with North Africa. Austria is my main ally right now. I can't see why I would want Austria to lose Tunis when I'm opposed to Turkey and Italy has turned out to be unbearably unreliable. With my support-hold order in place, the only way Austria will lose Tunis is if Italy and Turkey coordinate their moves with 3 fleets in order to take Tunis. If that happens, there's nothing I can do about it. But If they do take Tunis that way, it's probably because Turkey supported Italy into Tunis. That's not ideal for me (I'd rather have Austria in control of Tunis for various reasons, including that it facilitates a solo win for me), but at least it means Turkey would powering up Italy (probably due to being afraid of me) instead of going for a solo win.
- If Italy supports Turkey into Tunis, then Italy is either a fool or is deliberately throwing to Turkey (why Italy would want Turkey in control of Tunis is beyond me, which is why I say Italy has to be a fool to be support Turkey into Tunis without trying to throw).
I'm self-bouncing at Mid-Atlantic Ocean. I want to prevent Italy from getting into Mid-Atlantic Ocean. However, If I moved English Channel into Mid-Atlantic Ocean outright, that would look like I'm setting up to attack Italy at Spain, which I don't want to appear to be doing.
- The self-bounce will show that I was merely worried about Italy and not that I am intending to attack.
- It won't create a self-fulfilling prophecy. (If I have 2 fleets that border Spain, Italy could become convinced that I'm about to attack.)
- If my fleet remains in English Channel, I could use that fleet to convoy an army to Brest or Picardy next turn (if I get a build). Such a convoy would actually set me up better to attack Italy in the long run, because I will most likely have to attack Marseilles with armies (or at least block off its retreat options with armies). In my experience, Marseilles is typically more difficult for England to conquer than Spain for this reason.
I'm moving Belgium to Ruhr supported by Burgundy. I trust Austria, and so long as Austria moves as promised, this move will succeed at what I am trying to accomplish: prevent Germany from moving or retreating to Ruhr. Even if Italy moves Marseilles to Burgundy to cut my support, Belgium will still either move to Ruhr or bounce Germany, which is the main thing I hope to accomplish.
- I am unwilling to move Burgundy somewhere else. I need an army at Burgundy to fight for control (either offensively or defensively) of Munich and Marseilles.
I'm using Holland to take Kiel, and convoying into Holland to backfill. I thought about it a few ways, and it makes no difference if I attack Kiel with Holland supported by Denmark (and convoy to Holland) or if I attack with Denmark supported by Holland (and convoy to Denmark). The result is the same either way.
- This renders my fleet at Heligoland Bight kind of superfluous, since I'm fairly sure that my attack on Kiel is going to succeed with just one unit's support. But since I can't think of anything else to do (the fleet is trapped), I might as well support my move just in case.
- I considered convoying my army to Norway, but that seems unnecessary. I'm not going to be fighting for Moscow, and I doubt Turkey is going to be sending a lot of units to attack St. Petersburg. And, even if Turkey does make a run at St. Petersburg, I can send more units that way when the situation actually arises.
- It's important that I end this turn with an army at Denmark. Because I'll have a fleet at Baltic Sea, I'll be able to convoy that army at Denmark all over the place. The threat of being able to attack Berlin with a convoyed army, or to convoy an army into Livonia, will make Turkey's tactical decisions more difficult in the long run. Furthermore, an army at Denmark can backfill Kiel easily on a future turn. It will be critical to backfill Kiel with an army, because only an army at Kiel can fight for Munich.
- My army at London could be convoyed to Holland or Belgium, but I think Holland is a slightly better place to convoy. There's a small chance that Belgium could be bounced out of Ruhr (which will make the convoy fail), but a considerably smaller chance that Holland will fail to move into Kiel.
I have to move Sweden to Baltic Sea. I've explained several times already why that is critical to fighting for Berlin.
I'm moving Norway to Barents Sea. If I end up having to defend St. Petersburg from Turkey next turn, I can do so with the same effectiveness if my fleet is in Norway as if it is in Barents. However, if Turkey actually does start attacking St. Petersburg, then I'll probably want to send another unit to help fight. If my fleet is in Norway, that would block my reinforcements from coming in (whether another fleet or a convoyed army). Therefore, it is better to get my fleet in Norway out of the way while I still can, especially since there's no tactical disadvantage.

I feel very confident that Austria will keep all promises. If Austria does so, then Austria and I will have complete, defensible control of Munich and Berlin at the end of this year, which will shut down Turkey's ability to solo win. Once that happens, I'll consider how I might seize control of Munich and Berlin for myself.

If Italy makes the orders I suggested, then so much the better for me. I'll still have good positions to eventually backstab Italy, and probably Italy won't see my stab coming. However, I only want to backstab Italy if I actually get control of Munich and Berlin (or believe I will), because if I attack Italy without those centers, probably what will happen is that Turkey will end the match with 17 centers, me with 15, and Austria with 2. If possible, I don't want Turkey to end the match in first place in a 3-way draw; that's probably a worse outcome for me than a 4-way draw where I have more supply centers than anybody else (say, 14 to Turkey's 12). But if I have Munich and Berlin, then the worst case-scenario of my backstabbing Turkey is probably a 17-17 split with Turkey (and if it ends up something like 17 for me, 13 for Turkey, and 4 for Italy, I'll get more than 50% of the points because of how sum-of-squares scoring works).

If Italy moves away from Turkey to start fighting me though, or cooperates with Turkey to get control of Austrian centers, I might immediately attack Italy at Spain and Marseilles so that I'm more likely to end the match with the most centers (maybe 15), even if I don't think I can take Munich and Berlin. I'll have to make sure Austria won't throw the game if I try to do that though.

I wonder if Turkey is worried about my ability to solo win and will forgo a Turkish solo win attempt to instead start powering up Italy. That's what Turkey claimed to be up to, but I'll believe it only when I see it.

Online Diplomacy Championship R1 Spring 190630 min read