Germany Has It In For Me

That's not what I wanted to see.

Last turn, I was fairly confident that Germany would decide to keep the armies at Munich and Berlin. Because I thought that Germany would instead disband more distant units (specifically, that fleet at Baltic Sea), I didn't bother to message Germany other than to encourage Germany to disband the army at Burgundy. I thought that if I pressured Germany too much, my effort might annoy Germany and backfire. I'm not sure if I could have persuaded Germany to do any differently, but this sure is a disappointing outcome.

Germany keeping the units at Baltic Sea, Denmark, Kiel and Ruhr isn't the worst possible set of units Germany could have kept (from my perspective), but it's pretty darn close. Germany can easily support-hold Denmark, and Germany threatens to make attacks on Belgium and Holland.

Furthermore, Germany disbanding the armies at Berlin and Munich probably means Germany is thinking some combination of the following:

"I could try to make it into the draw by attempting to throw the match to Turkey. Turkey is the strongest power right now because Austria is on the verge of collapse. If I can keep my hold on the centers furthest from Turkey, I have a chance of getting in the draw."
"I hate England and want revenge. I don't care if Austria (and later, probably Turkey) takes Berlin and/or Munich."
"I trust Austria not to move to Berlin and/or Munich."

All of these ideas would be terrible thoughts from my perspective, especially the first two.

Backstab victims commonly treat their attacker as enemy #1. To circumscribe this danger, many Diplomacy players follow this heuristic: if you backstab someone, you better kill them dead; if your victim survives your backstab, that victim might ruin your life.

I don't think Germany is trying to "ruin my life" exactly, but Germany's disband choices have created a difficult situation for me. Let me discuss each problem:

First, I cannot afford to send any units against Italy. Not only do I need to throw almost everything I have against Germany to prevent Germany from increasing in centers (I need to either defend everything I have or else conquer Denmark to offset the loss of Holland), but the specter of a Turkish solo win looms ever larger over the map and I can't risk upsetting Italy (who is actually quite weak, and has too many units lined up to defend against me instead of Turkey).
- This situation is what makes me suspect that Germany just wants revenge or is trying to throw. Germany has to anticipate that putting up such a strong defense against me -- and more specifically, risking the loss of Berlin and Munich to do so -- means I can't risk attacking Italy. Why the heck would I send more units against Italy when Germany is threatening to take one of my centers and is willing to let other powers into Munich and Berlin?
- I believe that Germany is experienced enough to anticipate the strategic implications of disbanding the armies at Munich and Berlin. Therefore, I think that Germany made that disband choice with an understanding that I would feel forced to give up my promise to attack Italy. If I'm right, that means either Germany never believed I would attack Italy (meaning Germany's only chance is to throw the game to Turkey) or else Germany wants to prevent me from attacking Italy (to get revenge on me, even knowing that Germany will eventually be whittled out of the draw if I do not attack Italy soon).
My maneuverability in the north is diminished. I was hoping to use Norway to cover St. Petersburg, but now I think I might have to support-hold Sweden with Norway. That means I have to risk the possibility of Turkey backstabbing me to take St. Petersburg. Although Turkey could never keep that center until endgame, such harassment could force me to disband a unit and possibly reduce my momentum so much that I cannot solo win.
- If I were Turkey, I would probably take St. Petersburg. There's no way that England, with this board, can retaliate against Turkey for it. Slowing down England and preventing England from having any chance of a solo win is almost certainly advantageous, and the temporary extra build could last quite a lot time and gain advantages elsewhere before St. Petersburg is eventually lost.. All I can do is hope Turkey doesn't think like this.

Considering all these problems together, I need to set aside my ambition to solo win (for now). To prevent Turkey from getting a solo win, my priorities are:

Finishing off Germany.
Getting as big as possible as quickly as I can so that I can keep Turkey from crossing the stalemate line.
Keeping Italy strong, especially with regards to unit placement. Turkey tricked Austria horribly and might be able to do so with Italy.

I'll probably reconsider my ability to solo win at the end of this year.

What Do I Want To Accomplish This Turn?

What transpired last Autumn and Winter will make the match more difficult for me to win, but has not made the match difficult to play. My strategy isn't complicated, so I figured out what I need to do pretty quickly.

Germany stopped messaging me and retained an aggressive positions vs. my forces. As I said earlier, I suspect that Germany is either trying to spite me or throw to Turkey. I am going to all-out attack Germany, and accordingly I'm going to leave Germany with radio silence.
- In my opinion, sending too many messages to a player you are at war with, especially a player who is seeking revenge, can be counter-productive; the messages may just fuel their anger. I might have already made that mistake here (Germany started cursing when we were messaging after my attack).
- I might not send messages to Germany (on my own or even in response) until Germany asks me for help. "The Silent Treatment" is a time-tested method for bringing someone around to your side in a negotiation. A player who isn't getting a response may start cracking and offer desperate deals. Waiting for a player to beg you for mercy also increases the chances that you will be able to successfully manipulate that player, because when you finally dignify them with a message, your response will seem very credible.
- I can't think of a way to trick Germany. Tricking Germany might be worth messaging over, but nothing comes to mind. Germany obviously rejected the idea of defending Munich and Berlin vs. Austria, so I don't see how Germany could be tricked by me.
- One last thing to point out: if I ever have to make peace with Germany (such as if Turkey is in position to get a solo win), then I'll need to regain some measure of credibility. If the next time I message Germany is to ask for a truce (after not messaging for several turns), Germany may really believe that I want a truce.
I have to find a way to persuade Austria to do what I want. What do I want Austria to do?
- Ruin Germany's life by moving into Berlin and/or Munich. If possible, I should encourage Austria to line up at Prussia/Silesia/Bohemia so as to make a supported attack on one of those centers in Autumn. Austria is far more likely than Germany to cooperate with me (and probably far easier to trick and backstab on a later turn), so any centers I can transfer from Germany to Austria are an improvement.
- I think I'm going to struggle to lower Germany's supply center count. I can set myself up to protect Holland or swap Holland for Denmark, but I think that's all I can do for now. My new builds will take a full year to get into offensive positions (something that always stinks about being England). Therefore, causing Germany to lose a center to Austria (or forcing Germany to defend against Austria) is my best chance to bring Germany down.
- I'm actually unsure now if I want Austria to attack Italy successfully. Last turn I would have said "yes!!" but now I'm rethinking that.
  - I'm afraid that if Austria takes one of Italy's centers, Italy's defenses will get mangled and Turkey will use that opportunity to sneak into Ionian Sea, break into Ionian Sea by force, or trick Italy into letting a Turkish fleet in Ionian Sea. All of those would be very bad because, in my experience, once a powerful Turkey gets a fleet into Ionian Sea, a solo win for Turkey is imminently possible.
  - On the other hand, Italy could be lured into using more units vs. Austria. Maybe Italy will move Gulf of Lyons to go fight Austria, or even move Spain as well. That would be incredible and might keep alive my chances of a solo win.
  - It seems like there's just as much good as bad if Austria successfully attacks Italy (e.g., by moving into Tunis successfully), so I'm going to approach this situation with an open mind and see what Austria and Italy will say to me.
There's a few things I can get from Italy:
- Italy could use Marseilles to support Paris to Burgundy. That would be nice, since my move will work if Italy does that.
- I really want to persuade Italy to move those fleets towards the east.
- I want Italy to successfully take centers from Austria so that Turkey doesn't gobble all of them up.
I can ask Turkey for two main things:
- First, help Italy. If Turkey doesn't help Italy, Turkey is probably going to try for a solo win. Turkey needs to know that I am thinking along those lines so that Turkey will feel pressured to help Italy take a center.
- There's nothing I can do (tactically speaking) if Turkey is hellbent on taking St. Petersburg. However, if at all possible, I want to persuade Turkey to stay out of St. Petersburg.
  - Losing St. Petersburg without gaining a center elsewhere would probably prevent me from ever getting a solo win. I'd have to disband a unit, most likely one of my western fleets (because I'd have to get Italy on my side vs. Turkey), which would likely prevent me from being able to successfully backstab Italy later.
  - I'm especially concerned about Turkey sneaking into St. Petersburg and taking Warsaw at the same time.

Messages with Italy

Alright, now it’s time to finish off Austria and Germany.

Would you please use Marseilles to support Paris to Burgundy? My move is sure to work if you support it, since Germany destroyed Burgundy and Munich.

Done. Good luck!

Excellent. What can I do to give you the space needed to finish off Austria and build a wall vs Turkey? It looks like you need to use at least 2 of your fleets to fight Austria and I want you to be willing to do so.

On a related note, please, please, please don’t somehow be convinced by Turkey that you should let Turkey bring a Turkish fleet into ION, even to finish off Austria. That’s how turkey would set up the perfect backstab.

Secret Thoughts re: Italy

The outcome of this match probably depends on Italy. If Italy makes the same mistakes as Austria, I will be facing the prospect of a Turkish solo win. If the danger of a Turkish solo win manifests soon, I might have to make peace with Germany and form a stalemate line.

But if Italy is either tricked by me into lowering Italy's western defenses or is antagonized by a Turkish miscalculation (i.e. Turkey positions to attack Italy, but Italy responds effectively to the danger), then I could be the player in position to attempt a solo win.

So I'm trying to play nice with Italy and give Italy advice, but, sheesh, Italy sure doesn't feel like talking. All I got out of Italy is 3 words. My conclusion? The second game of the tournament started, so now Italy is focusing all energy on the opening moves on that game. This makes me very, very nervous because Italy failing to pay attention right now favors the potential Turkish solo win attempt.

I seem to have secured Italy's support to Burgundy, so if that holds true that's at least something.

Messages with Turkey

Well, we’ve really made it my friend. All our plans are playing out just like we hoped. This could be a short match actually.

A few quick matters to discuss:

1) I expect that neither of us should be attacking Italy, as previously agreed.

2) I expect Italy to get at least 1 Austrian center. I am sure you have promised him more and I don’t really care if you keep your full promise so long as Italy gets another build so that Italy can put up a defense in endgame. That okay?

3) as last turn, I expect you to just leave StP alone. Specifically, I want you to take Warsaw using Livonia so that you aren’t set up for a supported attack on StP in Autumn. I have no army in place you need to defend against. Can you agree to that?

I will not be attacking Italy. I've got plenty on my plate as it is and do not need another issue to deal with. Italy and i haven't really discussed the Austrian centres but he will surely get some of the spoils. He said he'd attack last turn and he didn't but now he is more or less forced to if he wants to have an influence on the game.

StP is yours and I will not make a move for it. I think I can agree to moving Livonia away and I will confirm that later when I've woken up properly and had a better look at the board. I have put in tentative orders for Liv - War.

With two supports, the only way Liv - War can fail is if Austria and Germany combine to support War - Liv. Can you afford to knock the Baltic to ensure success?

Tentatively as well, I can agree to do that (poke Baltic). I have two follow ups to that:
1) I really doubt Austria and Germany will cooperate. I bet your attack would just work.
2) what if you attack with Moscow? It’s all the same to me if you leave Moscow open. I kind of thought you wouldn’t want to do that but maybe it makes no difference to you. You could poke Prussia with Livonia, attack with Moscow supported by Ukraine, and retreat Livonia to Moscow if they did that attack your worried about.

Yes, that will work, too. Might even be better.

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey

Initially, I wrote out all the numbered points and almost sent that as my message to Turkey before remembering that I should include something charming before getting down to business. Thus, I added the first paragraph where I called Turkey "my friend" and complimented Turkey on good moves.

I included point (1) because I don't want Turkey to think this turn is a good moment for Turkey to attack Italy. Turkey probably already thinks that it's a bad idea to attack Italy before I do (Italy might send all units east and thus risk my solo win). But I am concerned that, due to Italy's inattentiveness, a Turkish attack on Italy might actually succeed. I want to show Turkey that I'm a little nervous about Turkey's solo win abilities without saying so directly, and imply that I'm already prepared to resist such an effort from Turkey.

For point (2), I really do think that Turkey should allow Italy to gain at least one center from Austria. Otherwise, I will have to presume Turkey is trying for a solo win and act accordingly. Now, what exactly can I do to harm Turkey if I think Turkey is going for a solo win? I'm not so sure. But I want Turkey to understand that I'm paying attention and looking after Italy.

However, truth be told, the first two points are just filler so that I don't seem like I solely care about St. Petersburg, point (3). I want to encourage Turkey to make moves that prevent Turkey from taking St. Petersburg by force in Autumn.

I believe Turkey that Turkey won't make a move on Italy or St. Petersburg. At a mere 8 centers, it is probably hubris for Turkey to openly attempt a solo win. But you never know for sure...

As far as my tactical suggestion to Turkey goes, my first suggestion wasn't that smart -- I wasn't thinking things through. Once Turkey suggested that I poke Baltic Sea with Sweden, I wanted to get out of keeping such a promise and thought harder about what moves Turkey could make. I looked for potential moves that would be sure to work without my help and also move Turkey away from St. Petersburg. I came up with my suggestion that Turkey attack with Livonia. That is actually a pretty strong move for Turkey since such a move ensures Turkey takes Warsaw without any outside help.

Final Thoughts

At the end of the turn, the main thing on my mind is how disappointing and annoying it is to play in a tournament match, only to watch most of the players give up participating. There are a couple of reasons I can think of as to why this might be:

First, many players tend to lose interest when they start losing matches of Diplomacy. I've encountered this problem many times in my "career" as a player. This problem is a big factor in why I strongly prefer to play only with experienced players or people I personally know.
Second, sum-of-squares scoring is a scourge. Players in control of a declining power often conclude that the game isn't fun anymore, so giving them an incentive to give up (they get almost no reward for making it into the draw, no matter how hard they try) compounds the problem.
Third, this tournament started the second match while the first one is already taking place, so everyone is playing attention to their new matches -- especially everyone who is doing poorly in the first one.

Why am I so bent out of shape about this? Well, I've grown accustomed to playing high-level matches of Diplomacy using draw-size scoring. In such matches, the players rarely stop engaging; they fight tooth-and-nail to stick around into the draw. Indeed, players whose country is on the decline sometimes start sending more press as they struggle to convince someone that keeping the declining power around is in the other player's interest. This engagement makes the match interesting from the beginning to end. Actually, the match often gets to be the most interesting when players start getting finished off.

This match -- with the non-engagement from the declining powers -- solidifies my view that it is generally not worth my while to play sum-of-squares matches or to play matches with players who might lose interest (i.e. inexperienced players). That's a shame though, because I recently was almost persuaded that sum-of-squares scoring had merit.

Players becoming indifferent to the match has a bad effect on fun. Players who aren't paying attention, aren't thinking about their moves, and aren't engaging with their press, tend to make terrible tactical choices and to be easily exploited by the players who are already stronger at that point. The nihilism of declining powers infects the whole game, as it doesn't seem like working hard (by messaging other players) will pay off; it seems like whoever has the good fortune to get away with backstabbing nihilists will be the ultimate victor. Diplomacy is supposed to be a game of intrigue and manipulation, so players who aren't engaging with the game on that level might as well not be playing at all.

Tactics

This is the best I can do to all-out attack Germany.

With such minimal messaging from the other powers, it feels like I'm almost playing a gunboat game. Let's go through the moves in the order that I figured out what to do:

I'm moving Paris to Burgundy. I can think of no better move. I hope Italy supports my move as promised.
I am support-holding Spain with Portugal and Mid-Atlantic ocean just to be cute. This isn't a gunboat game and I don't have to communicate my intentions with my orders. I am, of course, not willing to move my fleets out of Portugal and Mid-Atlantic Ocean because Italy hasn't ever asked me to do so and I'm not going to suggest that idea myself. There is still a possibility that I could solo win, and I need those fleets in position to attack Italy if I'm ever going to try for a solo.
I am support-holding Sweden with Norway. It is possible that Germany could attack Sweden with a supported move, and I don't want to deal with the tactical implications of Germany succeeding. I need my position in Sweden so that I can keep pressuring Germany from the North and eventually break through somehow.
- It's true that I could protect Sweden using North Sea like I did last turn, but I have other things I can do with North Sea right now.
- I realize that I'm leaving St. Petersburg wide open, but the simple, strategic truth is that I am at war with Germany and Turkey is my ally. I have to trust someone, so I'll trust Turkey. I also know that I can go back and regain St. Petersburg if I have to.

Next, I came up with a set of moves to deal with a tactical problem: Germany can make a supported attack on Holland with Ruhr and Kiel (and it looks like a decent move to attempt, from Germany's perspective, so Germany might try it). If my army at Holland is forced to retreat, that army has to retreat to Belgium or else disband. Getting my army at Holland disbanded would be a terrible setback, so I need to choose my moves so as to prevent that from happening.

The first moves I considered were to support-hold Holland with North Sea and to convoy London to Belgium (using English Channel). I would use Holland to support the convoy. But there's a counter-play for Germany: Ruhr to Belgium, Kiel to Holland. If Germany did that, my convoy would fail and I'd still have a ton of units well out of position vs. Germany in the Autumn. That wouldn't be devastating, but would still be pretty bad. Furthermore, even if my moves succeeded, I wouldn't be in position for follow-up attacks on Germany. Germany won't go down if I don't go on offense.

So then I came up with this idea:

Move North Sea to Heligoland Bight, move Edinburgh to North Sea. With my fleets surrounding Denmark in Autumn, I stand at least some chance of being able to successfully attack Denmark.
- My earlier strategy of discouraging everyone (including, and now especially, my former ally Germany) from ever building fleets in the north is really paying off. If Germany had a fleet in Kiel or Denmark, my attempt to move into Heligoland Bight could be bounced. But because Germany is loaded up with armies (and has only one fleet fairly far away from the front lines in Baltic Sea), I can just sail right into Heligoland Bight. My fleet in Heligoland Bight will permanently compromise Germany's defenses.
This means I can't afford to convoy my army to Belgium, because if Holland were to be dislodged it would have to be unable to retreat to Belgium. So instead I will convoy my army to Picardy. That way if Holland is dislodged, I can retreat that army to Belgium.
I'll move Holland to Ruhr in case Germany moves Ruhr to Belgium. Sneaking into Ruhr would be an awesome development for me because from Ruhr my army can support moves into Belgium, Holland, Kiel and Munich. I'm not counting on my army getting into Ruhr somehow, but if it did that would put my army in a powerful offensive position. I want to be on the offensive vs. Germany if I can!
What happens if Germany's army gets into Holland?
- With my fleets at North Sea and Heligoland Bight, I'll either push Germany back out of Holland or take Denmark as compensation. Wherever my army ends up, I can support my army back to Holland using my two fleets. The only scenario where Germany could somehow stop me from supporting myself back into Holland would be if Germany moved into Holland with Kiel and moved Baltic Sea to Kiel -- and if Germany did that, then Germany could not stop me from conquering Denmark.
What happens if Germany's army gets into Belgium?
- I'll push Germany back out of Belgium using my army at Picardy, fleet at English Channel, and/or (hopefully) my army at Burgundy. Germany won't have enough units in place to hold onto Belgium.
- I can support-hold Holland using one or both of my fleets in North Sea and Heligoland Bight to prevent Germany from trying to support an army at Belgium backwards into Holland.
Finally, what about the army at Liverpool? I know that I can move the army at Liverpool to Wales (for convoy using English Channel) or to Yorkshire (for convoy using North Sea). I decided that I'd rather plan on convoying using North Sea next turn. Here's why:
- With armies in Picardy and Burgundy (hopefully), and no plan to go on the offensive vs. Italy, I can't think of a reason why I would want to convoy additional armies into the formerly-French territories. Such armies might scare Italy and would very likely get log-jammed. Think about this: if my armies start the next turn in Picardy, Burgundy, and Belgium (due to retreat), I'll be maxed out on anti-German armies and have no good spot to convoy using English Channel.
- Although I'm not especially keen on convoying using North Sea (since I've been contemplating using North sea for support orders if necessary), interesting convoy opportunities might appear in the Autumn. One possibility is to convoy to Denmark, with the eventual plan of moving that army to Kiel and later Berlin or Munich. Another possibility is that I could convoy to Norway, just to get the army out of Great Britain and away from Italy. A third possibility is that I could convoy the army to Holland (depending on how the moves actually shake out). Because there are a lot of decent prospects for convoying with North Sea, I want to plan on convoying with North Sea if possible.

All-in-all, these are very aggressive moves. I once read an article about Diplomacy that said players who make support-hold orders as a big portion of all their moves rarely get solo wins, and that players who get solo wins tend to make moves and support-moves for the majority of their orders. That's something I take to heart. I try to make move-based orders whenever I'm on the offensive.

My moveset leaves open several offensive possibilities. Depending on how Germany moves, I might have the opportunity to attack Denmark, Kiel, or Munich (or even some combination!). Even if I'm unable to conquer anything from Germany this Autumn, I'll at least have a much better position for making supported attacks the following year.

There's also the possibility that Austria will try (as Austria promised last year) to sneak into Munich and/or Berlin. If Austria does that, it could be extremely disruptive to the German defenses and be the kind of good fortune I need to break through Germany's lines. I really hope Austria fulfills that promise.

Finally, I admit that by not defending St. Petersburg, there's a chance I'll lose control of it. If that happens and I don't take any German centers to compensate for that loss, then I'll very likely disband one of my fleets bordering Italy (Portugal or Mid-Atlantic Ocean) in the Winter. I have to take risks somewhere though, and I'm willing to take such a risk.

Online Diplomacy Championship R1 Spring 190524 min read

Germany Has It In For Me

What Do I Want To Accomplish This Turn?

Messages with Austria

Secret Thoughts re: Austria