I Love Getting Away With Something

If I were the other powers, I might read something into my London build.

What am I getting away with? Building my fleet in London instead of Liverpool! Germany gave me permission to build in London...but I think Germany and I will trick the other powers into thinking that Germany did not give me permission. I believe Germany that Germany will treat this as a bad surprise in messages with other powers (especially with Turkey). I promised Italy that I will attack Germany, but Turkey probably isn't sure. Turkey and Italy will likely feel confused, and this confusion could lead them to make a mistake.

Most importantly of all, Germany is not in any way alarmed by my positions. Germany would not have agreed to let me build in London if Germany thought there was any chance I would attack this turn. This may prove to be a grave error for Germany, because I now know that I can sucker punch Germany this turn by attacking without warning.

Other than that, the builds all reflect what I heard or would have predicted:

Germany built an army in Berlin as promised.
Turkey built an army in Ankara, which I believe Turkey told me and/or Germany (who passed the information to me) would happen.
Italy built an army in Venice and a fleet in Naples. I simply took for granted that Italy would build this way. I would be shocked to see anything else.

What Should I Do This Turn?

I'm still beset by the question I raised to myself last turn: is it time for me to stab Germany, or is still too early?

What will happen if I backstab Germany?

At this point, I think Germany will believe almost anything I say. Because I believe that I have Germany's complete trust, I think that Germany will not stop me from taking advantage of my aggressive positions. I do not think that Germany will play conservatively or defensively while waiting for me to back away my fleets. Accordingly:

If I move Gascony to Paris, I will be able to take Paris in the Autumn. Germany won't have enough armies in position to push me out. (+1 SC)
When I was struggling to plan ahead last turn, it didn't occur to me that I could cover Belgium this Autumn using my Mid-Atlantic Ocean fleet.
- I can probably get away with moving Mid-Atlantic Ocean to English Channel and Portugal to Mid-Atlantic Ocean, especially because Italy moved the Gulf of Lyons fleet backwards to Tyrrhenian Sea.
- I would need to make sure that Italy doesn't attack me. Specifically, I don't want Italy putting a fleet into Mid-Atlantic Ocean or Portugal. I can reduce the chances of Italy taking advantage of my lowered defenses by making my attack on Germany unexpectedly. If Italy doesn't think to move Spain to Portugal this Spring turn, then on the Autumn turn I can guess whether to move my fleet in Mid-Atlantic Ocean to Portugal (perhaps bouncing Italy) or just hold (if I think Italy will move to Mid-Atlantic Ocean for some reason).
I can attack Sweden with Norway supported by Skagerrak. The move will likely work with just 1 support order because I don't expect Germany to make any defensive orders. (+1 SC)
- I can backfill Norway with North Sea (because I have a fleet build in London to backfill North Sea!) and use my fleet at Barents Sea to cover St. Petersburg in the Autumn (likely preventing Germany from retreating to Finland and then just walking into either Norway or St. Petersburg). The only way I would lose St. Petersburg is if Germany and Turkey make a supported attack on St. Petersburg together.
In Autumn, I will have a fleet in North Sea and a fleet in Skagerrak, and Germany will likely have no unit bordering Denmark. I can then make a supported attack on Denmark with Skagerrak (I'd rather leave North Sea in place for convoys), taking Denmark as well. (+1 SC)
- I have to keep in mind that Germany could use the army that retreated to Finland to support Denmark to Sweden (potentially stemming Germany's losses). Therefore, I will likely have to use the fleet in Norway to support-hold Sweden. That means I won't be able to stop Germany and Turkey from working together to take St. Petersburg. I think that risk would be worth taking, since St. Petersburg is a center I can come back for at a later time.

If this goes according to plan and I don't lose St. Petersburg (to Turkey/Germany) or Portugal (to a clever guess by Italy), I will get 3 builds in Winter. Even if I lose one center, I will still get 2 builds. I will have a fleet in English Channel and in North Sea that can convoy for me, so I would almost certainly build 2 armies for immediate convoy onto the continent. Essential to an English solo win is to eventually build many armies, because Munich (a center usually required to solo win) is completely landlocked. I think I will have at least 10 centers, probably 11.

Germany, the victim, will likely lose many centers. In addition to losing Paris, Sweden and Denmark to me, Germany will likely lose Warsaw to Turkey/Austria (-4 SC). I doubt that Italy and Austria will still cooperate to take Munich, but that is also possible, and if so then Germany would lose 5 SC. This means that in Autumn, Germany will have to disband at least 4 units. Most likely, Germany would keep units that are able to guard the home centers for a small hope of making it into the draw (that is, I predict that Germany would keep the fleet currently in Denmark, and the armies currently at Ruhr, Munich and Berlin). It is possible that Germany will try to defend as long as possible by keeping 4 armies, which would make my future attacks that much easier. I doubt Germany would ever recover, and would likely be whittled down to even fewer centers by Winter 1905.

In 1905, using all my existing forces plus my new army builds, I will almost certainly be able to take control of Holland and Kiel (bringing me to 13 SCs).

If Germany keeps a fleet, it might take me some time to maneuver into a position where I can take Berlin. The problem I foresee is that I will likely end up with an army in Sweden, and an army in Sweden cannot help me force Germany's fleet out of Baltic Sea. Without first gaining control of Baltic Sea, I probably will not be able to conquer Berlin. To push Germany's fleet out of Baltic Sea by force, I will likely need fleets in Denmark and Sweden -- but with my own army sitting in the way at Sweden, that naval attack might be cumbersome to set up.

If I make good guesses in my attacks against Germany, it is possible that by 1906 I could have armies lined up in, say, Burgundy, Ruhr, and Kiel, and maybe have a fleet in Baltic Sea. But whether I can move further depends on what happens with Austria.

If Italy and Turkey continue to cooperate with Austria, then Austria will likely be the power who conquers Munich and probably Berlin too. However, if Italy or Turkey attacks Austria, then Austria will almost certainly bring backwards or disband all the armies lined up against Germany. If that happens and I line up a bunch of armies around Munich and Berlin, then I (England) might be the one to take those centers. If another power support-holds Germany from the other side (e.g., from Tyrolia or Prussia), then my struggle to get those last 2 German centers might be very difficult or even futile. But assuming all goes well, that could bring me up to 15 as early as 1906 (this is optimistic).

But once I conquer Germany, I may be shut out of getting a solo win:

Turkey will likely gain complete mastery of Warsaw and Moscow, so there is little hope that I could advance into either of those centers (but I think that may come true no matter what I do).
It is very likely that after I reach a big number of SCs and fight Germany for many turns, Italy will line up units to form a stalemate line around Spain and Marseilles. Italy has more than enough units to form a stalemate line in that location -- the units are just not properly positioned yet. If Italy gains builds by attacking Austria (and Turkey plays nice with Italy), then Italy will be flush with units by 1906. At that point, Italy should be strategically willing to move some units into a stalemate position. It is even possible that Italy will attack me and try to drive me out of Portugal.

Even if I were to backstab Italy successfully during 1905 or 1906 to gain Spain and/or Marseilles by surprise, that would only bring me up to 17 supply centers (18 are needed to solo win). Where would my 18th center come from?

Crossing over into the Mediterranean to take Tunis does not look easy at all. All the other players would understand that I am going for a solo win. To prevent my win, the other players would band together to set up a stalemate line running through Tunis. Italy would be able to use the units retreating out of Spain and Marseilles to set up that line. And remember: only 6 total units are required to set up a stalemate line running from Piedmont to Tunis.

I think Turkey and Italy will initiate war against Austria if I attack Germany. Turkey has explicitly and credibly offered to attack Austria if I attack Germany, and I think Italy would join in if Turkey attacked first. The thing is... I don't want Austria to be attacked. If Italy and Turkey destroy Austria in just 2 years, then most likely Italy will become too strong for me to get a solo win. But if Austria fights well, or if only one of Italy/Turkey attacks Austria, then maybe that fight will bog down and I'll have a shot against Italy at endgame. Because Austria doesn't talk to me, the outcome of this war seems beyond my control. I wish Austria were communicating with me, because then I could give Austria advice on how to fight the other two.

All-in-all, I think that if I backstab Germany this turn, I will definitely reach 13 SC, probably reach 15 SC, maybe reach 17 SC, and probably will not reach 18 SC.

If I were exclusively playing for a solo win, then backstabbing Germany would not be the right choice this turn. However, I don't strictly need to get a solo win in this match to advance to the next round of the tournament; I probably just need high final scores in each of my two matches. Because of how Sum-of-Squares scoring works, if I can secure 15-17 supply centers I will likely wind up with more than half of the available 100 points. That would be a pretty good outcome, and anyways a solo win is still possible even if I stab Germany now.

What will happen if I backstab Italy?

Here's what I'll have to do:

Move Norway to St. Petersburg, antagonizing Turkey.
Move all my fleets towards Italy.
Make supported attacks on Spain and Marseilles with Germany, pushing Italy out of both centers.

Germany and I will be certain to conquer Spain and Marseilles. But what else will happen?

Because attacking Italy and moving to St. Petersburg are anti-Turkish, and because such moves make it clear that Germany and I are joined at the hip, Turkey will likely work with Austria to fight Germany (which Turkey is promising to do). That means Germany will be pushed out of Warsaw and will ask for Norway as compensation (this is what Germany already suggested). Accordingly, I will end the turn with +1SC or 0 net SC (and reach 9 or remain at 8 supply centers).

I doubt that either Italy or Turkey will attack Austria if I work with Germany (unless one of them is foolhardy enough to attack Austria this very turn, before knowing what I'm really going to do vs. Germany). Therefore, I think that after Germany and I take Spain and Marseilles, we will probably stall out. I think Italy will form a strong defensive position, and Austria/Turkey will form a strong defensive position. When that happens, the game will wind up in a draw unless one of those three can be induced to attack the other(s).

Germany is incredibly loyal to me and I do not think for a moment that Germany will turn around and attack me if the match seems headed towards a draw. But I would be rather disappointed if this match ended in a 5-way draw where I had only 8 or 9 SCs. I think there is also a danger that as Italy and Austria move more and more units west to form a defensive line, Turkey will be well-positioned to backstab them and could actually end the game with the most centers (a scenario I warned Germany about last turn).

Last turn, I discussed with Germany the scenario where we would wind up attacking the Italian home centers. That scenario is definitely the most realistic scenario for how Germany and I could end the game in a draw with Turkey and each have more SCs than Turkey. If Turkey was hinting that this was a desirable 3-way draw from Turkey's perspective, I might be willing to go for it (counting on Turkey attacking Austria and/or Italy). However, because Turkey was very clear to me last turn that Turkey will not be attacking Italy no matter what (a declaration that I believe), I'm filled with doubt that Germany and I could really push our frontiers that far.

If I think that I am unlikely to acquire Tunis even if I continue to work with Germany, then my underlying reasons for allying Germany no longer exist:

France and Russia, our mutual enemies, are gone.
Germany is probably incapable of putting me in control of Moscow, even if Germany were willing to do that for me.
My alternative goal to getting Moscow is getting Tunis.

Thus, the critical question is: will I gain control of Tunis if I continue to work with Germany?

My prediction: We will push Italy's army in Marseilles back into Piedmont and Italy's fleet in Spain back into Western Mediterranean Sea or Gulf of Lyon. My fleets will be in Mid-Atlantic Ocean and Spain (I will attack with Portugal). The Italian army in Piedmont cannot be pushed out until I have a fleet in control of Gulf of Lyon myself, so we will stall out for a while. If Italy's fleets are in Western Mediterranean Sea and Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy could support-hold Western Mediterranean Sea or self-bounce at Gulf of Lyon, so I would have to start guessing against what I think Italy will do. Probably what I will do is move MAO to North Africa, and use Spain to support-move one of my other fleets into Mid-Atlantic Ocean.

What will happen after that seems difficult to predict. I will have fleets in North Africa, Mid-Atlantic Ocean, and Spain, which means I might be able to force my way into Western Mediterranean Sea if Italy only has 1 other fleet in position to support-hold. From those positions, I could also sneak into Gulf of Lyons or Tunis with a good guess (assuming Italy doesn't have enough fleets to cover all positions).

If Austria or Turkey attacks Italy at the same time I do, then I would be able to support Germany's army through Marseilles into Piedmont using a fleet in Gulf of Lyons and probably be able to out-guess Italy for a foothold at Tunis. But if Italy is not being attacked by Turkey (which Turkey has promised not to do and seems to be truthful about this) or Austria (either because they are at peace or because Italy/Turkey has attacked Austria so successfully that Austria cannot really "attack" Italy), then Italy would have enough units (even after the loss of Spain and Marseilles) to form an unbreakable defensive line, especially if Austria and/or Turkey assist with one of their units.

There are so many contingencies and possibilities here. I won't rule out the possibility that cooperating with Germany could eventually result in my capture of Tunis, but I don't find it very likely considering the state of the board and what I know from my press.

In sum, I think that stabbing Italy this turn is very low risk to me, but also low reward. As much as I wanted to work with Germany until I have control of Tunis, I think that goal might just be too unattainable to be worth working towards it.

Other things to think about:

Something important to consider, which I have mentioned before in this journal, is that I think Germany is a very strong player and Italy seems comparatively weak. This counsels in favor of stabbing Germany.

Backstabbing Germany on a later turn could prove to be a tremendously difficult task tactically. If Germany is as clever as I think, Germany will know which positions to defend and how to make good guesses against me. By contrast, Italy seems to have already made tactical and strategic errors (in my opinion); this means Italy might make the wrong moves when I eventually fight Italy during endgame.
Backstabbing Germany later on could also be a strategic nightmare, as Germany may control so many centers in the right positions that Germany could throw the game to someone else (probably Turkey). Indeed, Germany was recently reviewing with me the idea that Germany could be a viable 3-way draw partner for England and Turkey by threatening to throw the match. By contrast, I doubt Italy will be able to throw the game to Turkey.
Germany sends a lot of long messages, and Italy barely sends 1 message per turn (and recently, it was at the very end of the turn). I think Germany and Italy are treating other players this way as well, not just me. I think this is worth considering because during endgame, Germany would probably communicate with other powers extensively in order to set up proper tactical positions to stop my solo win. So if I am fighting both Germany and Turkey for the solo win in end-game, I will probably have to face the combined tactical and strategic insights of both players, since they will share their ideas with each other. By contrast, Italy seems aloof and unresponsive; this means Italy is unlikely to offer anything to Turkey in terms of insight, and might not even benefit much from Turkey's advice.

Other considerations:

Germany seems willing to play for a 2-way draw, and Turkey is not. Players who are willing to play for 2-way draws are better choices for endgame allies because they are willing to squeeze the remaining powers down to nubs, which gives more opportunities to backstab for a solo win. If Germany and I whittle down Turkey in endgame, a solo win opportunity could arise for me. By contrast, Turkey was explicit about refusing to play for a 2-way draw, so Turkey will likely prop up Italy until the end of the match. This counsels in favor of working with Germany.

Ultimately, I find myself returning to this thought: I have to attack Germany no matter what if I am going to solo win, and attacking Germany may only get more difficult as the board develops. I think this chance to massively backstab Germany will not come again. If I work with Germany, I will definitely have to move all units way from Germany and will probably never have another chance to move my forces close to Germany without giving away my intention to attack.

In other words, if I want to stab Germany at a later time, I will have to begin that stab by first moving my units into position to make the attacks; the actual attack will have to come 1 turn after, thus giving Germany 1 turn to react. However, if I stab Germany right now, I can begin the stab by directly attacking Germany without warning (thus allowing me to "sucker punch" Germany, as I usually put it); Germany will be reacting while I am in the middle of the attack.

I think the time has come to attack Germany, and I should spend this turn making sure Germany is unsuspecting. Ideally, I will persuade Germany to move away Denmark and/or Sweden to make my backstab that much more effective.

What do I do with my Press?

Now that I decided to backstab Germany, here's what I want to accomplish:

Keep Germany unsuspecting. I have to do everything I can to keep Germany believing that I am going to cooperate this turn. I am convinced that Germany is all-in with our alliance (or Germany wouldn't have given me permission to build a fleet in London), so I just need to maintain the relationship exactly the way it has been going up until this point. I don't want to say anything substantively that will alarm Germany, and I don't want to act any differently (e.g., send fewer or shorter messages, or messages with a different tone).
Keep Turkey guessing. Previously, Turkey told me that if I attacked Germany, Turkey would attack Austria (and conversely, would not attack Austria if I did not attack Germany). I believe Turkey is telling the truth. Here's the problem: I don't want Turkey to attack Austria even though I am going to attack Germany.
- First, if the game ends in a draw and I have the biggest score, my final take of the points will be larger if more players that share in that draw (this is a quirk of Sum-of-Squares scoring).
- Second, I want Austria to linger for a while even if Turkey and Italy eventually attack Austria. The reason? I need there to be an active war in the middle of the board if I am going to storm the center with my armies and capture Munich and Berlin. If Italy and Turkey destroy Austria faster than I can destroy Germany (which is likely, because Austria is far, far weaker compared to those two than Germany is compared to just me), then Italy and Turkey might work together to gain control of Munich and/or Berlin before I do. The longer Austria sticks around, the better my chance of taking Munich.
- Third, I'm hoping that if Austria is not attacked on this Spring turn, then Austria might nab (or try to nab) Munich from Germany in Autumn, which would probably hurt Germany temporarily but ultimately not be a defensible capture for Austria.
Keep Turkey friendly. Even though I want to manipulate Turkey into not attacking Austria, I still want Turkey's goodwill and cooperation for as long as possible. That means I shouldn't lie to Turkey or scare Turkey. I just need to be vague. Given Turkey's pattern of sending vague messages to me, I think I can get away with that.
Similarly, I need to avoid spooking Italy. I don't want Italy to attack Austria, but more importantly I don't want Italy to send units westward. I could definitely stop Italy from attacking Austria by implying that I am about to attack Italy, but that would probably result in Italy just sending units westward (which I think is even worse for me that Austria getting attacked by Italy).
- Furthermore, my ultimate success or failure in getting a solo win will probably depend on my ability to backstab Italy at the perfect time. I have a great chance to backstab Italy now, true, but I'm not strong enough to backstab two allies simultaneously. So what I need to do is keep Italy distracted for as long as possible with Austria and/or Turkey. If at all possible, I want Italy to be at war with another power around the time that I finish off Germany (e.g., I would like Turkey and Italy to start fighting each other around that time). If that happens, I can probably get a solo win. That means I need to do everything possible diplomatically to keep Italy's units away from mine.

Messages with Germany #1

I was growing worried that Turkey would not ask me about the build, and wondering whether I should bring it up myself. BUT, to my delight, he did indeed send a feeler out to gauge my reaction to your build. I copy my response below:

I've been contemplating how to respond to the builds since I saw them this morning.
England and I had agreed that he would build the fleet in Liverpool. He sent me a message after the end of the build phase explaining that he needed to switch the build to London in order to keep Italy in the dark about our intentions for one more turn.

Frankly, I do not buy England's explanation, but after much reflection I believe I simply have to accept it. If he is lying, I cannot turn to defend myself without losing some or all of Munich, Berlin, and Warsaw; but if I do not defend myself, I assuredly lose Sweden, Denmark, and probably Paris. That is to say, if he is lying, there is no winning play.

And if he is telling the truth, and I erroneously move to defend myself, I lose some or all of Munich, Berlin, and Warsaw for no reason at all. And I probably render my prophecy self-fulfilling.

So, I press forward as though I trust him completely. Because I have no alternative.

Guten tag

Turkey took the bait. I can’t beleive it was so easy. The build, by itself, caused Turkey to shoot me a message believing that I’m about to attack you. I didn’t even have to sell it. I’m so glad you thought of this idea. I still can’t believe it worked, haha. Turkey might attack Austria this very turn.

I’m going with my family to the movies tonight. When I get a free moment, I’ll send you my proposed orders. If you get this message before I get around to that, I’ll review your proposal if you want to come up with one.

My moves, for now:
Denmark-Baltic
Ruhr SH Munich
Burgundy - Marseilles
Sweden hold (not sure what to do with this one, might move to Den, but I plan to convoy to Livonia in the Autumn if I can)
Prussia SH Warsaw
Munich hold
Warsaw hold
Berlin SH Munich

Okay I think our messages crossed each other, when I started writing I had not seen any messages from you yet - hold on

Enjoy your movie!

Okay hahaha that’s awesome and such a great message. There’s no reason for Turkey to think you’re in on this build, so you don’t lose any credibility with Turkey afterwards. I get what you were saying earlier about how the multi-layer led subterfuge is fun for its own sake.

Okay for me:
MAO support Portugal to Spain
Portugal to Spain
Gascony support Burgundy to Marseilles
London to English Channel
North Sea to Norwegian Sea
Skaggerak to North Sea
Norway to STP supported by Barents

Pretty straightforward stuff I think

Your moves make sense to me and I don’t have anything to suggest regarding Prussia and Warsaw unless and until Turkey or Austria leaks something to me. I will ask Austria directly but I think Turkey will see it as suspicious if I pry too hard.

Okay I’m just gonna throw some ideas out there and see if any of these seems worthwhile to you. We’ve come up with a lot of good moves this way so far.

- Are you willing to pass SKA through Sweden on the spring phase so that we have a fleet in GoB? This would allow us to make a supported convoy to Livonia in 1905. You could move your army to Denmark to attempt a convoy this Autumn; and if it fails we can try again next spring with support from STP and GoB. Pros: I’m eventually gonna max out on fleets and might as well put one to use Cons: you are not set up to take Norway if you need it
- variation of the previous plan: you move Sweden to Finland, otherwise the same. Relative to the other plan, Pros: you can take Norway if needed Cons: can’t convoy in 1904, have to wait until 1905.
- variation 3: what if we just assume that you will need a center and I set you up to take STP with your army, and leave my army in Finland to be convoyed in 1905? SWE to FIN, Norway and Barents bounce in STP to guard it, then Sweden to STP and Norway to Finland in autumn. Pros: assures you 2 centers (MaR and STP) in case you have to offset Warsaw, sets you up to take Moscow now easily one day. Cons: no ability to convoy anything to Iivonia until 1905

Let me add this to the pros of variation 3: Turkey pressured me intensely not to move my army to StP. Not that Turkey will actually care if I give STP to your army, but there’s some kind of poetic beauty in my technically filling Turkey’s request.

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #1

My strategy here is very simple: I am stringing Germany along as best I can. I have to continue treating Germany exactly as I have on the preceding turns so that Germany doesn't get a funny feeling that I'm about to attack. When an ally starts talking to you awkwardly or differently, it can be a sign of an impending backstab. Most people are poor liars and their insincerity can be detected even through written messages. I sometimes call this detection a "spider sense" or a "6th sense." I don't want to tingle Germany's "spider sense."

My 3 different plans I suggested to Germany have two purposes:

I am trying to press my luck on luring Germany further and further away from my forces. My offers to support Germany's convoy or to cede St. Petersburg to Germany are would be fairly reasonable ideas if the two of us were going to keep playing like we're joined at the hip. Notice how I am not pressuring Germany to make these moves at all; I am merely suggesting the ideas as though I am simply trying to do what is in the best interest of our alliance without violating Germany's expectations or comfort. If Germany says "no, I don't want you to move your fleet through Sweden," I'll accept the answer -- no big deal at all, and no harm done to me just for asking. But it's precisely because I'm not pressuring Germany to allow me to make such a move that Germany might actually agree to it. I've said before many times that suggesting ideas and giving lots of options to your ally is a great manipulative tactic because it makes the other player feel "in control" (even though they end up doing what you wanted).
Most importantly, I want very badly to know the precise move Germany is going to make with the Sweden army. Germany initially talked about not being sure whether to hold with the army in Sweden or move that army to Denmark. I don't particularly care whether Germany moves the army or not; it's the not knowing that's bad for my backstab. If I don't precisely know where Germany's going to move each unit, then I can't take full advantage of Germany's trust when choosing my moves for attack (e.g., I might waste a support if I don't know where Germany will move Sweden). If Germany agrees to one of these plans, I'll know exactly where Germany intends to move the Sweden army.

Messages with Italy #1

Why the fleet build? Aren't you stabbing Germany? Or am I your target?

My friend, do not worry. Remember what I said: "I just need to keep Germany on my side for this builds turn. I will attack Germany immediately this Spring. Please do not hint to Germany that I will do this."

I'm trying to be sneaky. For my attack on Germany to work, Germany has to not see my attack coming. Germany made me promise several turns ago that I wouldn't build any additional armies, so if I built an army last turn, Germany would know for a fact that I was about to attack. I don't want Germany to know that I'm about to attack.

If I had built a fleet in Liverpool, you'd be right to be concerned. But I built the fleet in London so that I can back-fill North Sea when I make my attack. True, an army would be more useful than a fleet, but surprise is the greatest weapon of all.

I'm disappointed that you told me you're against my build decision only after it's too late for me to do anything about it. I think it's unfair for you to criticize my decision when you never told me what you wanted. If there's something specific you want from me, on this turn or any other, just talk to me about it. I'm very reasonable. Give it a try 🙂

I've kept my word to you every turn so far. I'm leaving you in peace as we agreed (I figured that you'd want to fight Austria after Austria moved into Ionian Sea).

Secret Thoughts re: Italy #1

What kind of message is this? Italy is complaining now about my build without even having discussed with me what build I should get? And like I would tell Italy that I'm about to attack if that's what I were doing. And, for that matter, if Italy is worried about being attacked then why did Italy move a fleet back to Tyrrhenian sea?

What an amateur approach. I'm almost offended.

There's so much nonsense in what Italy is trying to say to me. What is Italy hoping to accomplish by sending me such a hostile and unnecessary message? Is this supposed to deter me from attacking?

Anyways, I responded as best I could to reassure Italy. I also told Italy, politely, to shove it on criticizing me for something we never even discussed.

Please notice that I left my critical, negative tone out of my message. In my messaging to Italy, I am still trying to be as charming as I can.

Messages with Italy #2

I'm sorry, man. Got paranoid as the press seems to say that you're probably coming after me next... On other news, are the Germans planning to make a move against me this turn?

Thanks for keeping your word so far, and I have did likewise. We're in peace as long as nothing wierd comes up

I understand. No hard feelings. I was the one asking you for assurances last year, after all.

You are very welcome and I appreciate your keeping your word to me as well. I agree that we have no conflict, and I will not be attacking you this turn. Do what you have to do to feel safe or whatever, but please be assured that I am attacking Germany this turn and not you. You will see in just a few hours.

I believe Germany will try to attack you, but I think the attack will be useless.

Secret Thoughts re: Italy #2

Italy's response to my reprimand is reasonable. I quite like Italy's response, and now I wonder if Italy trusts me pretty well. Perhaps I will eventually have an opportunity to make a game-winning backstab against Italy. Only time will tell!

Observe how I do everything I can to reassure Italy. I definitely do not want Italy sending any units my way, whether or not I am attacking Italy.

Please also notice how I did a much better job this time in keeping my message length about the same as Italy's. I accomplished this by writing a draft of everything I wanted to say to Italy, and then paring that down to just the key points. I'm really impressed with how effective the "mirroring" strategy appears to be, as that seems to have worked wonders with Germany so far.

Messages with Turkey #2

Perhaps this is the season where we keep our cards close to our chest until the deadline?

Both Italy and Germany are waiting with bated breath to see how you will move, not least because both have expressed disappointment in your build.

Yes — To be clear, I'm not expecting you to reveal anything to me about your moves either. So long as you don’t move Moscow to STP (I don’t know why you would, I’m just saying), I am good with anything you do this turn.

Regardless of whether I told you that I was going to attack Italy or Germany, on some level you’d have to wonder if I was just trying to manipulate you. Instead, you’ll see my good faith in working with you once the turn ends. We can figure out what to do next in Autumn. I’m confident that we will want to keep working together for the rest of this match.

I think we'll both be fine this turn. I imagine that you've got the bigger choice to make and it could be said you're spoilt for choice. You have played admirably so far and you have two eager suitors hoping you won't break their back.

Secret Thoughts re: Austria

Austria, once again, has failed to message me. Because my attempts to communicate with Austria last turn were a waste of time, I'm not going to bother to send Austria any messages this turn. I only have so much time in a day.

I strongly predict that Austria will be eliminated this game. I am a serious and well-meaning potential ally, but Austria sends me only frivolous messages and makes no effort to actually get anything out of me. It is unwise to neglect a natural ally (England and Austria are natural allies).

Maybe I'm just making excuses for my own neglect of Austria... Either way, it's a shame that Austria is performing poorly, because I think that if Austria were more successful I would be in a better position to eventually solo win.

Messages with Germany #2

The poetic beauty of variation 3 brought a smile to my face.

I like the way that you’re thinking, and I think that we should go with variation 1, with Sweden moving to Denmark and SKA to Sweden.

I don’t see many scenarios in which your A-St. P isn’t adequate to support me into Livonia, but I also don’t see any scenarios in which I absolutely need to take Norway.

I’ll move Sweden to Denmark.

To be clear, I’m basing my decision on the sense that convoying to Livonia ASAP is important

Understood. I’ll defer to your preference. I think that seems like the right way to go. It could be the difference between getting Moscow and getting stuck at Warsaw.

My revised move list:
POR to SPA
MAO s POR to SPA
GAS s BUR to MAR
LON to ENG
NTH to NWG
NOR to STP
BAR s NOR to STP
SKA to SWE (instead of North Sea)

I’ll be on again tonight before the end of the turn. I’ll look for you confirmation.

FYI, I still think Turkey has fallen for the ruse, but Italy is now very paranoid. I predicted things to be the other way around. Doesn’t change anything about our moves I just wanted to let you know.

I confirm that your moves look good to me. Probably not gonna be able to hop on before the phase change. Here's to hoping Turkey lets me hold onto Warsaw for another turn. I'm not so sure that Turkey is going to attack Austria immediately (he's still hung up about that army heading to St. P, though maybe he's just saying that to me to help England pull the wool over my eyes)

From my perspective, Turkey is talking to me like Turkey buys it hook, line and sinker (or whatever equivalent would be a good joke for a literal Turkey; I had a long day and can’t think of one), so your read of Turkey’s press is probably right.

I honestly thought that Turkey was going to use my promise to attack you as a way to try to make you freak out, especially if Turkey didn’t believe me but wanted to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. I guess I just don’t understand Turkey as well as I think.

Anyways have a nice night. Next turn should be just as easy in the west as this one, but could be quite tricky in the east depending on whether Austria gets attacked or not.

See you on the shore of the Mediterranean. I bet it’s nice even this time of year.

I look forward to when this game is over and we can reveal our identities. I harbor a hope that you and I are situated somewhat near one another and perhaps we can grab a drink some time.

And, for the record, I’ll continue to feel this way even if you stab me.

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #2

Success! I got Germany to tell me precisely how Sweden will be moved this turn.

I believe Germany is being honest with me. Earlier, Germany forwarded me a message that Germany sent to Turkey (I believe Germany actually sent the message). The message said that Germany basically has no choice but to just hope that I'm going to stay allied. I completely agree with Germany's sentiment there; If I attack Germany, then Germany will not make it into the draw -- end of story. Even if Germany put up a good fight against me, that would just result in my getting a smaller share of the draw or some other power getting a solo win; it wouldn't result in Germany's survival.

So because I think Germany has to just assume that we're working together, I think I can assume Germany is being honest with me about what moves will happen this turn. Germany has not lied to me about even one unit's move. Actually, if I recall correctly, I believe Germany has told me precisely how each German unit would move on every turn. Nothing has happened to make me think Germany would change course and try to deceive me about anything.

Finally, I did everything I could think of in my messages to sound the same way I've sounded on previous turns. I made sure to send Germany a sufficient number of messages with the right friendly/joking tone, and made sure to share Germany the scuttlebutt from the other powers (which I think I more-or-less accurately relayed; Italy might be more reassured and Turkey less convinced than I am holding them out to be, but I don't think that will matter one way or the other).

Ultimately, I think Germany sort of senses what I am about to do. It's obvious that my ability to backstab and the potential reward for doing so create a temptation. But I think Germany was being honest in that message to Turkey about having to stick with me and just hope for the best. I think I would feel the same way if I were in Germany's situation. Because of this, my temptation to backstab is even greater because I'm so confident that my attack will succeed.

Final Thoughts: Backstabbing Germany

I am absolutely certain that some of my readers will be emotionally devastated to behold my cold-hearted backstab of Germany, despite:

My original strategy of planning to backstab Germany only after taking control of Tunis.
Germany's friendly attitude and the fun times we've shared together.
Germany's loyalty and unwavering commitment to our alliance.
My extensive efforts building up rapport with Germany, including revelations of a few facts about my personal life and my promise to become friends with Germany after the match, etc.

In response to this, I say:

I already gave my reasons why I am giving up on reaching Tunis first. Strategic flexibility is required to be good at Diplomacy. I won't succumb to tunnel vision or stubbornness.
Germany's friendly attitude and fun times with me paid off (initially) for Germany. Germany secured a good ally (me) and had good growth. But Germany took it too far and became too trusting, which is a mistake. Germany should not have agreed to let me build a fleet in London. The temptation for me to stab is just too strong now.
I will in fact still try to become friends with Germany after the match. I have sincerely enjoyed playing with Germany and would love to play more friendly matches in the future. After the match, I will introduce myself to Germany personally and see if we can meet up sometime for a drink (just as Germany requested). I've made many friends playing Diplomacy and played Diplomacy with many friends. Oftentimes, the people I am most friendly with outside of the matches are the ones I fight hardest against during the actual games.
Stabbing your allies (and getting stabbed by your allies), no matter how friendly, no matter how loyal, is all part of the fun. That's right -- backstabbing is part of the fun. Diplomacy is a fun game, and I have fun even when I get backstabbed. I love calling people traitorous rats and trying to take them down after they take advantage of me, and I love backstabbing my own sister (really!) to try to get a solo win. Diplomacy is a game of deception and betrayal. Sometimes you're the victim, sometimes you're the victor. Experienced players, players who really stick with this game over the years, enjoy the whole experience. Therefore, I do not see myself as cold or cruel; I see myself as providing the ideal Diplomacy experience to my fellow players.
- As an aside, I've known a few players who seem to refuse to backstab. I don't enjoy playing with them quite as much. They seem to be involved in the wrong hobby.

Fellow players out there, if you are looking to improve at this game and you're appalled by how willing I am to backstab my ally, then this could be an area of improvement for you. I've seen plenty of players pass up great backstab opportunities like this due to "emotional reasoning" of feelings like guilt. Or alternatively, players open themselves up to backstab opportunities (like Germany has done so here) on the belief that emotions like guilt will restrain their rivals. In my experience, the two feelings (refusing to backstab allies and believing that allies will not backstab you) go hand-in-hand. It's a mistake to project your feelings of guilt (or whatever) onto other players. Better yet, don't have such feelings in the first place.

One way to cure yourself of feelings like guilt is to come to realize that this is all just a game (how easy it can be to forget!). Indeed, Diplomacy is a game created in order to allow people to backstab their best friends. That's what's it's all about!

Final Thoughts: Tactical Choices

My backstab plan depends almost entirely on Germany being faithful to me. If I'm right that Germany truthfully told me what those moves will be, then I'll deal a crushing blow.

Wow, this is the first turn of this match where I really feel free. Since I'm not keeping my word to Germany, and since I didn't make specific promises to anybody else, I'm free to attack Germany in any tactical way I want. I don't have to negotiate, haggle, etc.

It's a good feeling.

Let's talk about how I came up with these moves. A really good way to think strategically is to think up a situation you want to see in the future and then work backwards to the present to figure out what you have to do now in order to create that future situation.

I want to get eventually gain control of Munich, which means massing armies in the center of the map. Right now, I have 6 fleets and 2 armies. With only a single hostile fleet in the north (the German one), my six fleets are already more than sufficient to conquer everything that fleets can effectively conquer. That means I need to build at least 2 armies this turn, possibly even 3 armies if I get 3 builds (a 7th fleet would likely wind up superfluous). However, those armies will be useless unless I can convoy them off of Great Britain (indeed, if I build 3 armies it will take me at least 2 turns to convoy all of them out, since I doubt I'll have enough fleets in position to convoy 3 at once). So that means:

I need to net at least 2 supply centers so that I can make the army builds.
I want to end the year with fleets in North Sea and English Channel so that I can build armies in Edinburgh and London for immediate convoy.
Because I have so few armies, I need to make efficient use of the armies I already have. Munich is one of three land-locked supply centers that England might need to solo win. All the fleets in the world are useless in acquiring Munich, but my fleets can help me take over the rest of the map. I need to put the army where it belongs. The other two land-locked centers England might need are Paris (which I think I will get this turn) and Moscow (which I think is out of reach for me this match). I think that if I can get control of Munich, my solo win will depend on whether I can acquire Tunis.

So where do those ideas lead me tactically?

Based on Germany's promised moves, I think I can just walk into Sweden (or more accurately, sail), so there's no need to make a supported move involving my army in Norway and my fleet in Skagerrak. Instead, I should take the opportunity to convoy my Norway army into Holland. Why?
- First, that army will just get in the way if I put it in Sweden. An army can only move from Sweden to Norway, Finland or Denmark, but a fleet can do any of those moves plus also advance forward into Baltic Sea or Gulf of Bothnia. The ability to move my unit forward into the water will prevent my advancement from getting log-jammed.
- Second, I need a fleet in Baltic Sea as soon as I possibly can; getting a fleet into Baltic Sea quickly could be decisive in whether or not I ultimately wind up with control of Berlin (and control of Berlin is useful in getting control of Munich).
- Third, I will need many armies in position to fight for Munich. Holland is far, far closer to Munich than Sweden is. Holland can move and make supported attacks into Ruhr (landlocked). Holland is a far more useful location than Norway or Sweden (for me, right now, in this particular match -- not in all situations).
I'm moving Barents Sea to Norway so that I can make a support-hold order on Sweden. I expect Germany to later have an army in Denmark and a fleet in Baltic Sea, which together are capable of making a supported attack on Sweden. Not only will I be able to support-hold Sweden to ensure I get a capture, but by threatening to support-hold Sweden I may deter Germany from even trying to retake Sweden. If I'm willing to take a risk with Sweden, I could cover St. Petersburg next turn with Norway instead (assuming Turkey doesn't betray me and move Moscow to St. Petersburg this turn). Having my fleet in Norway gives me options.
I'm moving Gascony to Paris because I need to mop up that center and Paris mine for the taking. I anticipate that Italy, having become paranoid that I will attack, will support-hold Spain with Marseilles and vice-versa (that would actually be quite useless as a defense if Germany and I were going to attack, as both orders would be cut if we attacked each unit at the same time like I "planned" to with Germany, but I think Italy won't think of anything better to do with those units). Thus, when I move my army into Paris, there will not be a sufficient number of armies in place to push it out.
- In addition to being a simple land grab, it is important for me to get control of Paris while I can. Paris is one of only two land-locked centers I intend to conquer this match as part of my solo win strategy. The sooner I can conquer Paris and move that army towards Marseilles or Munich, the better.
I am moving London to English Channel. Once I decided to convoy my army using North Sea, this move became logically necessary. I remember that at the outset of this turn I thought I would move Mid-Atlantic Ocean to English Channel, but since I have nowhere else to move London, I might as well prepare to cover Belgium (during Autumn) with this unit instead.
- I was previously quite excited by the idea of moving North Sea to Heligoland Bight and backfilling North Sea with London, but at that time I assumed I would have to take Sweden with a supported attack involving my army. The value of convoying my army to Holland is, in my opinion, far greater than the value of getting a fleet into Heligoland Bight. I already discussed the advantages of having an army in Holland (and not Sweden). That doesn't weigh so favorably against an immediate move to Heligoland Bight, because if Germany moves the fleet to Baltic Sea as promised, then I can probably move a fleet into Heligoland Bight any time I want to.
I am kind of concerned that Italy is going to move a bunch of units towards me. Despite Italy's messages and my reassurance, I just can't shake the feeling that Italy is going to try to move units towards me, and that this might involve moving Spain to Portugal or to Mid-Atlantic Ocean.
- I am so concerned about Italy doing this, that I actually mulled over the idea of using Gascony to support Burgundy to Marseilles while simply poking Spain with Mid-Atlantic Ocean (without support from Portugal). I think if I did that, Burgundy would successfully move to Marseilles (and thus I would be able to pick up Paris uncontested in the Autumn) and force Italy to retreat (or even to disband, if Italy moves an army to Piedmont). Italy would definitely be able to regain Marseilles in the Autumn (I wouldn't interfere), but Italy would have to waste a turn recovering Marseilles before being able to position against me.
- However, I thought better of that. In the short run, yes, I would set Italy back and send Germany's army away from me (Burgundy would be in Marseilles and unable to contest Belgium), which would be considerable tactical advantages to be sure. But what would be the long-term cost? I would probably lose Italy's trust for all time, and I simply must have Italy's trust if I am to solo win this match.
- To put things another way, I should not sacrifice Italy's trust for anything less than a solo win attempt. Even if I simply assume Italy is going to try to interfere with me somehow or move units towards me, I should just stay calm and be like "it's all cool my friend, I mean you no harm." If Italy doesn't buy that, even after turns upon turns of our cooperation, then there's nothing I could have done anyways to get Italy onto my side and a solo win was probably always out of reach. It's worth risking my inability to ever conquer Marseilles to keep alive my hope of a solo win.
- Accordingly, I have decided to NOT move Mid-Atlantic Ocean or Portugal. I will keep them around for defense against Italy, but I won't do anything hostile either. I put in those support-hold orders on Italy's fleet at Spain just to be cute, basically.
Finally, let me take a moment to discuss my tactical ideas on what my follow-up moves will be in Autumn, which is an essential element to planning out this backstab:
- I can bounce Paris and Mid-Atlantic Ocean off of each other at Gascony if I want to block Gascony from Germany or Italy. If Italy or Germany is really canny, then they might think to support one of my move orders so that the move actually succeeds (a tactic I call a "hostile support"); however, players rarely think to do something like that. I kind of doubt Italy is engaged enough in this match to think up such a move, and Germany will probably try to grab Belgium. Anyways, if I'm really worried about a hostile support, I can still just hold with Paris and I straight up move Mid-Atlantic Ocean to Gascony.
- I can use Holland to support-move English Channel to Belgium. That will counter Germany moving Burgundy or Ruhr to Belgium (Germany would likely use the army that doesn't move to support the move order).
- I could also back-fill English Channel with Mid-Atlantic Ocean in case my fleet actually does move into Belgium. That way I'm sure to have a fleet in position to convoy during Autumn. If my move to Belgium fails, then my move to English Channel will also fail (so no harm done)
- I could attack Denmark. If I support-hold Sweden with Norway, I could use Norway to make a supported attack on Denmark from North Sea. If Germany support-holds Denmark with Baltic Sea or attacks Norway with Baltic Sea, then nothing will happen. But if Germany makes any other moves, I'll take both Sweden and Denmark. True, I won't have a fleet in position to convoy my armies, but taking away 5 of Germany's SCs (Paris, Holland, Sweden, Warsaw, +Denmark) is probably worth it. After you stab someone, it's good to "kill 'em dead" so that your stab doesn't come back to haunt you. It's something for me to consider anyways.
  - And of course, alternatively, I could cover St. Petersburg with Norway. If I did that, then I would probably support Sweden to Denmark with North Sea. Why? So that I'm sure to capture either Denmark or Sweden (either Germany fails to stop my attack and I capture Denmark instead of Sweden, or Germany does stop my attack and I still take Sweden). This is probably the better move honestly.

If this year goes according to plan, I will get +1SC for Holland, +1 SC for Sweden, and +1 SC for Paris (+3 SC total). Even if I lose St. Petersburg to Turkey, I'll still get 2 builds, and that's all I can manage anyways. I'll go back for St. Petersburg some time later if I need to.

Wow, writing this part of my journal entry really takes me back to writing my gunboat journal!

1 thought on “Online Diplomacy Championship R1 Spring 1904”

wloff May 15, 2020 at 10:09 pm

Ah, the good old backstab.

There is something poetic and strange about a big backstab between experienced players. Germany’s last message is both heartbreaking and beautiful at the same time, and perfectly sums up it all:

“And, for the record, I’ll continue to feel this way even if you stab me.”

Germany, as a good and experienced player, obviously saw the opportunity as clearly as you and Turkey did. He knew the opportunity was there, he knew the motivation was there, he probably knew in his heart of hearts that it was *probably* coming right now. Like you so excellently said yourself… the stabs are what make the game of Diplomacy so deliciously fun. Even when you’re the one getting stabbed.

It’s really interesting to me though how *reading* about this feels so much worse, so much more terrible, than actually being a part of it. Had I been in your shoes, I would absolutely have done the exact same thing, especially with it being a tournament game where every point may matter; and I would have felt the mild sting of guilt but also excitement and understanding that it’s just a game, and both of you were very aware it might happen.

Yet somehow reading all these heartfelt guarantees of trust and friendship from both of your parts, while simultaneously knowing it’s all already doomed to come to a heartbreaking end — it’s somehow a thousand times worse than being involved in it myself! So interesting to me.

“And, for the record, I’ll continue to feel this way even if you stab me.”

That line is going to haunt me for a while, I think!

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