This Turn is About...Diplomacy

It's the name of the game.

Looking at the board right now, and based on the press I got during the winter turn, I think I have an idea already of what moves I should make in the west:

The fleet at Mid-Atlantic Ocean support move to Spain from Western Mediterranean Sea
The army at Brest move to Gascony
The fleet at Liverpool move to Irish Sea

It's not so obvious what I should do in the north. I need to find out what moves Germany is comfortable with. It's not that complicated, but I shouldn't decide by myself if I want to keep Germany happy.

An editorial note

I can't stand Sum-of-Squares scoring. I wrote in my blog post on this topic about how Sum-of-Squares scoring leads to nihilism and revenge-seeking. This is the first Sum-of-Squares scoring game I have played in years, and almost immediately I have encountered a player throwing away their supply centers just to ruin the chances of an arbitrarily-chosen target.

Even though Germany and I worked hard to bring Russia down, almost all the spoils from doing so will go to Austria and Turkey (Rumania, Sevastopol, Moscow, Warsaw); all we have to show for it is sort of Sweden and St. Petersburg. Why? Because Russia disbanded all the armies capable of defending those home centers and instead kept the units on Germany's border just to waste a turn. Wow. In a draw-size scoring game, you would never see a player throw away a viable shot at a draw (Moscow is a great position to get into a draw from) in 1903.

What Do I Want To Accomplish This Turn?

I want to keep my promises to Italy that I will help Italy conquer Marseilles and Spain (on the hope of getting Italy's support into Portugal and perhaps future favors), and I want to help Germany get rid of that stupid Russian fleet (or at least contain the damage). With that in mind, there's not much for me to accomplish with my moves that hasn't already been decided.

But Diplomatically, there is still work to be done. At the very least, I can keep investigating the situation in the east. I also need to keep Italy on board with our plan. That shouldn't be too hard.

I need to keep my mind open on ways to keep Turkey contained. Austria powered up Turkey far too much, and I don't trust Turkey. But setting Austria against Turkey could very well just provoke Turkey to successfully attack Austria if I don't make sure Austria does the right thing tactically. I sure hope Austria doesn't take the attitude of "well Turkey has me in a bind and Turkey will attack me if I don't comply with Turkey's demands." I encounter this attitude often with players, and it is foolish because that blackmailer will still kill you after you have outlived your usefulness. Haven't you seen a movie?

Messages with Germany #1

Oof. Containing that fleet might be a problem. Here are my initial thoughts:

* Russia might move SKA anywhere. This means I need to cover North Sea (for obvious reasons) and Norway. I might need to cover Norway because Turkey is certain to move to Moscow this turn. From Moscow, Turkey could support Norway to STP, and I think Turkey might do it. (I don't know if you've talked to Turkey much, but Turkey is extremely mercenary and brazenly stated an intention to get a solo win. I know that sounds like I'm spread a false messages because it's completely ludicrous to say something like that, but honest-to-god Turkey said that to me.)
* If possible I need to get a fleet actually into North Sea or Norwegian Sea so that I can convoy in Autumn. Every turn that army sits there, it's going to waste and is unable to be of use at St. Petersburg.
* You could try to self-bounce at Denmark (the obvious move), but we could also try something else. It's not a big deal if your fleet moves to Denmark for a turn.

What if we moved:
LON to NTH
NWY supp LON to NTH
STP hold
BAL to DEN
SWE supp BAL to DEN

Pros:
1) SKA is immobilized. 100% protects all our northern centers from Russia.
2) I'm guaranteed to be able to convoy in Autumn. We will convoy EDI to Norway using North Sea, and support the move using Sweden. With your support, Russia can't bounce the convoy (important!). I will leave Norway open by moving the fleet there to Norwegian Sea (which can't be stopped) or we can just destroy the damned thing if you're willing to support my Norway fleet to SKA using Denmark.
3) St. Pete will be protected because two hostile units will never border STP; I can defend our position with just the lone fleet.
4) We were supposed to make North Sea a DMZ, so it is only right that you should bring your fleet back to Denmark if I'm going to occupy that zone.
5) You don't have a critical need for a fleet in Baltic Sea this turn. To be sure, it is an immensely strategic zone for having a fleet -- but at this very moment you don't need the position. E.g., I don't think you can afford to convoy to Livonia.

After Russia disbands the SKA fleet in 1904 (hopefully), then I'll move North Sea to English Channel and you can move Denmark back to Baltic Sea. I'll move EDI from Norway to STP, backing up my STP fleet to barents. Ideally at that point (1904), you and I will be making our attack on Italy, so all my fleets swill be able to go to good use there. It'll take a while to thread them through Gibraltar, but it'll be worth the effort.

Fun fact: I mistakenly thought Baltic and SKA bordered one another. The fact that they don’t makes all of this much easier.

I’m perfectly comfortable with your proposed moves for yourself. There are some high-risk options we could pursue to try to get that army convoyed directly into St. P, but I see the chances of success as slim to none. I’m certainly open to the possibility of supporting Norway into SKA to force the disband.

I agree with your analysis re: the Baltic Sea fleet. I have it ordered at the moment to move to Denmark with support trombone Sweden. I will want to get it back to Baltic ASAP, but I believe I have time to put it in Denmark for one year.

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #1

It took me almost a half-hour to come up with this precise tactical plan for me and Germany. I puzzled and puzzled about the best way to deal with the Russian fleet because I want to ensure my convoy in Autumn will work and also make Germany feel as safe as possible.

The plan I have suggested to Germany is the product of my best effort to come up with a move set that will disable the Russian fleet, allow me to convoy, and might be acceptable to Germany. I really hope Germany accepts my proposal, so I did two things to try to sell it:

First, I laid out what goals I had in mind when coming up with my plan. Among other things, I pointed out how I don't trust Turkey, and that the Russian fleet needs to stay isolated to prevent coordination with Turkey. I explained other tactical minutiae.

Then I laid out the plan that I came up with while I kept those goals in mind.

After that, I explained the benefits of my plan, including benefits to myself, to Germany, and to our alliance as a whole.

Finally, I explained the long-term tactical implications of my plan and affirmed my eventual desire to attack Italy using all my fleets. This last part is important, because it is very dangerous to Germany that I am moving so many fleets towards the German centers. Now, I might actually attack Germany if it looks like a smart move, but regardless of whether I am going to attack Germany or Italy as my next target, I need to convince Germany that it's okay for me to move a fleet back into North Sea.

And it seems that I have done so. Good for me!

Secret Thoughts re: Global

Previously, I did not want to play along with Germany's antics. But on this turn, I don't think I have a lot to lose by seeming like a similar player to Germany in the global chat. I'm not trying to convince Russia and France of anything, and I don't think Italy, Austria, or Turkey will care that much about such a message based on my assessment of their personalities.

With with this concerns reduced, I want to play along with Germany's silly messages to make Germany feel like we're in this together.

Secret Thoughts re: Russia

I've deliberately not responded to Russia. I have no time for this fool who is indifferent to making it into the draw. I'm not going to help Russia harass Germany (my best ally) for no reason, especially after Russia didn't follow my advice to disband the fleet.

If I were in a position where I could attempt a solo win, I would definitely consider working with a near-dead player wanting to throw the game out of revenge. But when I'm at a mere 7 SCs, I'm not anywhere close to that.

Messages with Turkey

I agree on your last point. I have not made any promises to Austria about supporting him to Warsaw, though, or that Warsaw should fall to him.

Are you willing to offer Germany that you will support the German army into Warsaw in Autumn? If Germany accepts your offer (you don't actually have to follow through with it; the fact of Germany accepting and my knowing about it should be enough), I think I will get away with not ceding Belgium to Germany this year. Maybe that's not valuable to you, but I wanted to put this to you in case you are considering making such an offer of support to Germany.

I have told Germany that supporting him to Warsaw in the autumn is an option if my move to Ukraine is successful. I also told him that, however, that I will not aggravate Austria only to find myself standing alone. I've given Austria the details of how I will move and it will be interesting to see how he uses that information.

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey

Is Turkey hinting at a chink in the armor? Turkey hinted the possibility of not supporting Austria, but didn't say what the army in Moscow might do instead.

Obviously, it's already in my mind that Turkey could be scheming on how to support Russia's fleet into St. Petersburg during the Autumn somehow, but that seems like a long shot. The cooperation between me and Germany should prevent Russia from retaking St. Petersburg no matter who helps.

Would Turkey support Germany to Warsaw? I want to know. Maybe Turkey is already thinking about doing it. If so, I'd like to know in advance. Germany doesn't need me to cede Belgium if Turkey is going to support Germany's army into Warsaw. I'm trying to act like I want Turkey to support Germany into Warsaw, even though I'm kind of indifferent. Germany getting another build is probably to my disadvantage, but I might end up having to cede Belgium to Germany if Germany doesn't get Warsaw, which would be even worse. However, by acting like Turkey supporting Germany into Warsaw is something that I want (I gave a plausible reason why I should want this), Turkey is more likely to tell me the truth about what will happen with Turkey's support in Autumn.

What I do not want is for Germany to capture Warsaw and Belgium at the same time. That might permit Germany to build 2 fleets at once. That, combined with Germany having a fleet in Denmark, could be enough for Germany to prosecute a war against me effectively. I have a good feeling about Germany's loyalty, but it's always more prudent to make your ally's change of allegiance or backstab unworkable in the first place.

Turkey's hint of possibly supporting Germany into Warsaw (and that this offer has been made to Germany) is very valuable to me. I'm glad I asked.

Messages with Germany #2

Is your intent to support Italy into Spain and then hope for support into Portugal? I wonder if it might not be safer to move to Portugal first (and hope France does not bounce you out—I suppose you offer to support hold Spain). Particularly if we’re contemplating transferring Belgium to me, I would be hesitant to do that without assurance that you will indeed be gaining a supply center.

These are my very tentative orders:

BER-SIL
RUH-SH-MUN
PAR-GAS
PRU-WAR
MUN S BER-SIL
BAL-DEN
SWE S BAL-DEN

I will most likely alter them to have Prussia support the move to Silesia, not least because I would have a very poor shot at holding onto Warsaw if I even managed to enter it successfully.

Okay I'm glad we have our plan for how to fight Russia squared away. I went around and around in my head on different ways for us to fight that fleet more efficiently, but everything else I came up with seems unnecessarily risky, especially with the presence of a Turkish army in Moscow in Autumn. I feel mentally exhausted and I'm glad we figured it out in one go.

Italy and I have this agreement: I move Brest to Gascony and use MAO to support WMS to Spain. Italy moves Piedmont to MAR supported by GoL. We're also counting on your move of Paris to Burgundy. This destroys the French army at MAR and coerces a retreat to Portugal. Then in Autumn, the Italian fleet at Spain supports MAO to Portugal.

I agree with you that it would be better if I were somehow assured to take Portugal. I thought really hard about that in my bargaining with Italy. But here's why I concluded that this plan is the way to go:
1) I trust Italy more than I trust France. I've lied to France twice to get France to do what I want, and France is unlikely to believe me a third time. By contrast, Italy has done all I have asked and we exchange friendly messages.
2) I genuinely want Italy to capture MAR and SPA. Contrary to what I said back in 1902 about turning against Italy immediately, right now I'm not sure sure about that. Turkey poised to become the strongest power on the board after this turn. If Turkey successfully backstabs Austria and Italy doesn't have some builds, Turkey could just run rampant. That will throw a wrench into all the plans you and I have made (I am pretty sure that if Turkey controls Greece-Bulgaria-Rumania-Sevastopol, that forms a mini stalemate line and Turkey cannot be eliminated -- worst-case is that Turkey ends up with a bigger share of the draw than you or I)
3) If and when we attack Italy, it will be better if Italy doesn't see it coming. By freely assisting Italy into Spain this turn, I hope to earn a little of Italy's trust. If Italy does in fact support me to Portugal as promised, we'll actually be set up to push Italy right back out of Spain and MAR if we want to (because Italy's new builds will be far away).

Your moves look solid. You also set yourself up to pick up Belgium if necessary (since either Ruhr or an army in Burgundy can back up into Belgium while the other support-holds Munich in Autumn). In my opinion, it would not be a disaster if Italy stabs me over Portugal while I cede you Belgium; having completed my convoy to Norway, I can just disband one of my extra fleets while you build an new army. The 6-8 SC imbalance would be easy to fix on a later turn.

I'm probing Turkey about supporting you in Warsaw. Why not see if you can get something from that sly devil?

"In my opinion, it would not be a disaster if Italy stabs me over Portugal while I cede you Belgium; having completed my convoy to Norway, I can just disband one of my extra fleets while you build an new army. The 6-8 SC imbalance would be easy to fix on a later turn."

Thank you for your flexibility. And I am swayed by your argument regarding staying friendly with Italy to counter Turkey. Supposedly Turkey is going to transfer Bulgaria to Austria voluntarily, but we'll see if that's really how things play out. If Italy makes a move on Munich, my feelings will probably change!

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #2

I decided to explain my thinking re: Italy as best I could to Germany, with as much honesty as possible. My analysis about needing Italy as a bulwark against Turkey is honest, and my belief that Italy is better for me to trust than France is also honest.

Of course I'm not going to reveal that I have suggested to Italy that we attack Germany together, but if Germany asks about it I'll say that it was lies to get Italy's cooperation.

I made sure to make clear to Germany that I am comfortable ceding Belgium, as I have said before several times. It is possible that Germany will insist on taking the center this year, and if that happens I'll have to make up my mind about whether to let Germany have it or to backstab Germany. But what I'm really hoping here is that my stated willingness to cede Belgium will make Germany trust me enough not to ask for it. In any scenario (I let Germany have Belgium; I backstab Germany; Germany doesn't ask for Belgium), it is better for me to express that I am more than happy to cede Belgium to Germany; acting reluctant to cede Belgium could only hurt my rapport with Germany.

Germany accepted my offer, which is fine. I'm just doing what I can to keep Germany from being worried about me. That's the overall theme I'm trying to convey to Germany here.

Secret Thoughts re: Italy

I waited to finalize my moves with Germany before revealing all my moves to Italy. Italy is sparse on press, so I think sending only a single message per turn is ideal if I can get away with it.

Why did I tell Italy everything? Because there's no risk or cost to me in telling Italy my moves. Even if Italy leaks my moves to Russia, there's nothing Russia can do about it. But telling every last one of my moves to Italy, in advance, goes a long way in establishing my credibility. I want Italy to think that I am a reliable and trustworthy ally, and that I am "taking things to the next level" so to speak in bringing myself closer in alliance with Italy. Whether I eventually attack Italy or not, it is valuable to do what I can to gain Italy's trust.

Whenever telling another player all your moves (or even some of your moves) comes at zero risk to you, it is often advantageous, diplomatically, to go ahead and announce your moves in advance.

Messages with Germany #3

To be clear, we can attack Italy no matter what, even if Italy supports me to Portugal, and even if Italy doesn't attack you. I just want to hedge against Austria getting massively backstabbed by Turkey. I just can't shake off the feeling that this is coming.

Actually, it'll be even easier to attack Italy if Italy supports me into Portugal, since Italy will only have 3 units in position and we will have 4.

Anyways, if our moves are decided, what else can we accomplish this turn? I haven't been messaged by Austria for quite a while (despite my efforts), and Turkey mostly sends me vague or misleading messages. Do you have any info to share or strategic ideas?

Some intel I’ve gathered, not sure if I’ve shared yet or if you already know:
- Turkey says that he and Austria have not made any agreements about Warsaw. Vague as always, he says only that he will move Sev to Moscow or to Ukraine, and convoy to Sev, and “we can figure things out from there.”

-Austria says the move to Bohemia was only to cut support in case Russia tried to move on Galicia. I don’t buy it, but Austria is at least still paying lip service to a pan-Germanic alliance.
-Austria wants Warsaw (no surprise) and has said that he feels he needs it to counter Turkey’s explosive growth. I first agreed not to interfere, but then changed my mind and said I would be bouncing in Warsaw to give myself some leverage and to avoid having two Austrian units adjacent to Silesia. I also sent some probing messages to Turkey trying to get a sense of whether I might be able to secure support into Warsaw. Neither has yet replied.
-Italy has not replied to my follow-up message asking where Tyrolia is going now.

I’m open to suggestions from you as to how I might outmaneuver my friends in the east. I appreciate you looking into whether I might get support into Warsaw. I think our ability to cooperate directly in that theater turns entirely on how quickly we can get your army into St. Petersburg.

-We might be able to pass off my taking of Belgium as something we did not agree upon. I could act after the fact like I’m doing damage control with you and trying to keep you from terminating our alliance entirely and retaliating. It might buy us a turn to induce the other powers to do things that they’re deterred from doing by a strong E/G. I’ll think about what might be accomplished in that window, and if you have any ideas I’m all ears.

On the subject of Italy:

Maybe you can communicate to Italy that your continued cooperation is contingent upon Tyrolia backing off of Munich? You can justify that you want a relatively strong Germany for now as a buffer to hold back Turkey and Austria and let you claim more of Russia (and of course you can hint that you’re well positioned to stab me with Italy’s help when the time is right, or go all in on the notion of the 3 of us sweeping the world and hitting Draw).

Work has been killing me this week. Thank you for your thoughtful messages. Please assume that if I don't respond to your particular points, I read it and didn't have anything worthwhile to add.

I don't have any special tactical advice for how to move in the east. Austria didn't message me, Turkey was cryptic, Russia tried to get me to harass you (I didn't respond).

However, I can tell you that Turkey did keep open the option of supporting your army into Warsaw this Autumn. I see that you thanked me for looking into that, and you're very welcome. I really don't trust Turkey, but I increasingly feel like Turkey is too clever and will end up in the draw no matter what we do, so I'm trying to work with Turkey to the extent possible. Turkey supporting you to Warsaw would go a long way to increase my opinion of Turkey. It also occurs to me that we might be able to kick Turkey out of Moscow if Turkey doesn't realize what we're trying to do here.

I'm going to say that I don't think we'll get away with deceiving anyone about Belgium. Italy and Austria aren't engaged and Turkey won't fall for it. Seems like a lot of work for little chance of reward.

Italy will barely talk to me other than to agree to finish off France. I tried really hard to get Italy to talk to me about long-term stuff and just got a trite response. Just be prepared to defend Munich. If Italy tries for that, you can defend easily - especially if you get even 1 more build. Then we'll retaliate in 1904 by pushing Italy back out of Spain. That's my $0.02.

No worries if you can't write 10 pages of analysis and prognosis this week, I know how that goes.

I see your point and agree (now) that the Belgian Deception thing isn't likely to accomplish much of anything.

I'm not getting anything out of Italy either and I am pretty much counting on a futile attack on Munich.

If I get bounced out of Burgundy AND Russia and Austria cooperate to get a unit into Silesia, I will have to use Berlin and Ruhr to support hold Munich and will be unable to move to Belgium. If that occurs, it might make sense for me instead to take Brest.

You know, I think I'll stop trying to play out different hypothetical scenarios and just wait 4 hours to see what happens.

I agree with you on all counts, as usual, including your sense that we probably just have to live with this thing coming down to a 3-way draw with Turkey.

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #3

I want very badly to reduce Germany's anxiety that I am going to work with Italy. Obviously, I am helping Italy get 2 SCs because I said I was going to do that. Germany is worried about Italy attacking Munich, and therefore it might turn out to be disloyal (to Germany) for me to help Italy. I'm doing all I can to make Germany comfortable by explaining the danger of Turkey and our ability to attack Italy if we want to. And that includes changing the subject.

Germany's shared press from Turkey is consistent with what I've gotten from Turkey.

Austria is at least conversing with Germany, which is good. I wish Austria would reach out to me though.

Italy isn't messaging Germany either? Man, this is getting to be a lazy game. Only me, Germany, and Turkey seem to be putting a serious effort into our press.

As far as my reply to Germany goes, here is my thinking:

I want to dangle the possibility of taking Warsaw in front of Germany. Maybe Germany won't ask for Belgium. My messages to Germany are mostly honest (the only thing missing is that I told Turkey that I didn't care of Turkey actually supported Germany's army into Warsaw; I only requested that Turkey offer the support). I'm trying to create an impression that I'm willing to work with a player I don't like (Turkey) just for the sake of my good ally Germany.

What I said about Belgium is sincere.

I am covering up the mutual promises Italy and I have shared regarding a possible attack on Germany on a future turn. It's not a very serious plan, but there's no reason for me to tell Germany about that. Instead, I focused Germany's attention on the idea of retaliation, which is a realistic plan.

Final Thoughts

Not the most dramatic moves, I'll give you that.

I don't expect anything wild this turn. I think Italy and Germany will keep their promises to me. I think Turkey and Austria will try to take the free centers given them by Russia. I'm worried Turkey will attack Austria, but not certain of it.

At the end of this turn, the only thing I feel bad about really is that Germany seems fixated on getting Belgium from me. That's concerning or even alarming, because if Germany takes both Belgium and Warsaw, Germany could suddenly build two fleets and come after me. I think that's possible because the initial explosion of our friendship seems like its starting to wear off. I'm not sure how to fan the flames there.

Furthermore, I keep thinking about backstabbing Germany and it might be really hard to do so if Germany moves into Belgium this Autumn. I might be able to make up for that by moving Gascony to Paris or something. I'll see how things shape up.

Online Diplomacy Championship R1 Spring 190324 min read