Oof...missed another chance to take Berlin

If I had attacked Berlin, I would have taken it. This is the second time I've missed the chance.

At this point, I'm no longer playing for a solo win. Tactically, it should not be possible for me to get a solo win because my rivals all have the correct stalemate line positions. I think there's a small chance that they could make a mistake and let me get Berlin (which would bring me up to 17 supply centers), but I think I have no chance of reaching 18.

Nevertheless, I still have something to gain if I can increase my count of supply centers from 16 to 17. The number of centers I control at the end of the match is significant because of how the tournament scoring works (sum of squares). Assuming Italy ends with 7 supply centers and Turkey with 10 supply centers, my own 16 supply centers will yield me 63/100 points. If I can increase my total to 17 by conquering Berlin from Austria, I will end the match with 71/100 points.

With sum-of-squares scoring, each player's supply center count converts into a score quadratically, not linearly. That means each additional supply center is worth more than the last one. If I could get to 17, it would make that last supply worth about 8% of the total score (even though each individual supply center makes up just <3% of the board total of 34).

Similarly, if Turkey takes Berlin, that will decrease my score from 63/100 to 60/100, even though my final SC count (16) would be unchanged. That's because each player's number of supply centers gets squared in order to calculate the percentage of the points each player gets.

You can't see it on this map, but Italy and Turkey supported a (nonexistent) Austrian army move from Berlin to Munich. If Austria had moved the army at Berlin to Munich and I had tried to attack Berlin, I would have probably traded Berlin for Munich. But Austria did not move the army at Berlin to Munich, which means Austria had insufficient support-holds on Berlin and I could have taken Berlin if I had tried. Gosh-darn-it.

Once again, I am kind of kicking myself that I lost this opportunity to take the 17th center. That 71 points out of 100 is, to me, a lot more than 63. I don't know (I think nobody knows?) how many points will be required to advance to round 2. I am going to be disappointed in myself if the miss the cutoff for the second round by 8 or less points.

In any event, I definitely definitely don't want Turkey to get Berlin. Either I am going to take Berlin or Austria is going to keep it. One or the other.

Attack Plan?

I see two opportunities that might help me get as high of a score as I can in the draw:

Austria isn't completely cooperating with Turkey and Italy. Maybe I can somehow create a situation that allows me to capture Berlin?
Italy is about to lose Tunis to Turkey. That stinks. I would rather Italy have another supply center than Turkey, because Italy has fewer supply centers total. With sum-of-squares scoring, you want your rivals to even out their scores. You don't want one of your rivals to have a bigger score than the other because a larger score (squared) will take up a bigger percentage of the points. Let's see if I can talk Italy into taking back Tunis.

Secret Thoughts re: Austria

My goal with messaging Austria is simply to figure out what happened.

I believe Austria's explanation; it makes sense that Austria is trying to keep the other players uncertain so that they won't attack Berlin. Turkey and I both want to take Berlin for ourselves if possible, but both of us would rather Austria keep Berlin if not.

I don't think there's anything I can say that will get Austria to work with me. But maybe I still have an opportunity to nab Berlin if Austria isn't fully cooperating with Turkey...

Messages with Italy

Alright I’m going to be forced to vote draw any turn now. I’d like to end the mwatch with the biggest possible draw, and with sum-of-squares scoring that means having the biggest margin. In other words, I want you to have a slightly bigger score at the expense of Turkey, not the other way around.

It looks like turkey is going to take Tunis at the 11th hour, which will reduce our score and my score. Can I off you my support into Tunis?

That’s fine by me, do you all want to coordinate and take out Austria?

Please support in from West Med 🙂

Yes - thank you! I will support WMS to Tunis with North Africa.

I am not sure if we will be able to finish off Austria. It would actually decrease my score if Turkey took Berlin, so I'd rather Austria have it than Turkey.

Secret Thoughts re: Italy

There are two layers behind my messaging with Italy.

First, I am sincere about wanting to prop up Italy's supply center count at the expense of Turkey's; the smaller Turkey's final number, the bigger my share of the points will be. That reason alone is enough for me to sincerely offer to put Italy's fleet into Tunis.

Second, I am hoping that Italy taking Tunis (by surprise, ideally) will somehow offend Turkey and potentially cause Turkey to throw me the match. I don't really think Turkey would do that because Turkey seems like a cautious and determined player, but it's always possible. I've played matches before where another player was so angered by how their allies were acting (bad moves, frustrating messages) that the player offered to throw the game to me purely to spite the other players. I know that such an outcome is possible, so I want encourage Italy to not cooperate with Turkey. It's not much, but it's something.

Final Thoughts

I'll take a shot at Munich and help Italy into Tunis.

Here's my thinking on my Mediterranean moves:

I believe Italy that the fleet at Western Mediterranean Sea will move to Tunis. I think Italy desires to have the biggest possible share of the draw and accordingly does not want to cede any centers to Turkey. In this, Italy and I share a common interest. If Italy also supports that move with the fleet at Tyrrhenian Sea, then Italy will take Tunis and the Turkish fleet will be destroyed.
- Even after this happens, Italy and Turkey will still have a stalemate line set up. The only way I can break through is if they stop cooperating.
My efforts to re-arrange my fleets and get my Gascony army to Marseilles is just to be ready to take advantage of the situation if Italy and Turkey have some kind of falling out over Tunis.
- To be clear, I don't think Italy and Turkey will have a falling out. But if they do -- and I have seen such a falling out happen before even this close to a stalemated game -- I need to be read to take advantage of it.

This is what I'm thinking for my central moves:

I probably already missed my chance to capture Berlin. From now on, I expect Turkey to use the armies at Prussia and Silesia to put support-hold orders to Austria's army at Berlin. If Turkey does that, it's not possible for me to capture Berlin.
- If Turkey support-holds Berlin, then Turkey/Italy/Austria won't be able to make a sufficiently-supported attack on Munich. In other words, I've got nothing to lose. If Turkey protects Berlin (and also Austria holds with Berlin; if Austria moves Berlin, any support-holds will fail), then none of our armies will move. This is what I think is most likely to happen.
However, there's a chance that Austria will attack Munich with Turkey and Italy's support. If that happens, there are two possible outcomes. Either:
- I will trade Munich for Berlin, most likely for the rest of the match; or
- Somehow Italy, Turkey and Austria don't communicate properly and don't make the right moves. If that happens, then I might capture Berlin while keeping Munich. I rate the chances of this working at <5%, but it is possible.
I am attacking Munich using a convoyed army from Sweden so that if I trade Munich for Berlin, I'll have an army in Berlin that can at least threaten to come after Munich again later on. I would use armies at Burgundy, Ruhr, Kiel and Berlin to maximize my chances of re-taking Munich. Probably I would be blocked, but if there's some kind of mistake or falling-out between Turkey/Italy/Austria, I want to be in position to take advantage of it.
If somehow I end up trading Munich for Berlin, my army at Munich will be destroyed and I'll have to rebuild it. So I'm moving English Channel to North Sea to convoy an army build at London, should it come to that.

In the far north, I'm simply giving myself at least some chance at taking Livonia. Most likely, Turkey will support-hold Livonia with both Moscow and Warsaw. If Turkey does that, I can't ever take Livonia. Turkey has stalemate position, but it is possible that Turkey could mess up. If I do get into Livonia, that might allow me to eventually grind down Berlin.

Online Diplomacy Championship R1 Autumn 19088 min read