Global Messages #1

Germany: I’m accepting recommendations on how to make the most of my inevitable demise. Is there anything at all I can do that will affect anyone on the board at all? My read is a resounding “No” but I’m open to ideas.

Russia: Try to make sure it is a three way, not a solo

Turkey: Do you have any money?

Russia: Who, me?

Turkey: No, Germany.

Germany: Russia, I wonder if a solo might improve our chances to make it into the next round of the tournament. It creates a situation wherein every player other than the solo winner is just as punished by this game as we were, and if the solo winner is eliminated in the other game this round then we’d maybe have a shot at overcoming this loss? Math isn’t my strong suit so I’m nt sure what would be ideal.

Turkey, the funds have been wired to your account in the Cayman Islands.

Germany Might Throw to Turkey on Purpose

Italy Might Throw to Turkey by Mistake

At least Turkey can't threaten St. Petersburg this turn.

For this entry, I've shown you some some of the global messages prior to my self-assessment. That's because these messages poured into global chat before I could even think about what's going on with the match.

First, I have some thoughts about Germany:

Shortly after I backstabbed Germany, I asked Germany about Germany's goals. Germany said that the goal was to make it into the draw with as many centers as possible. Germany might have lied, or perhaps self-deceived, about wanting to (potentially) continue to work with me and/or about wanting to fight for the draw. I infer from how Germany played out the subsequent turns that Germany did not think deeply about how to actually fight for the draw, because getting into the draw would have required Germany to hold onto Munich and Berlin. Instead, it seems to me from Germany's previous move choices and present rhetoric that Germany is interested in getting revenge against me or just causing havoc. It's the nihilism problems that's always present in sum-of-squares scoring. I hate this nihilism problem.
- Even though Germany initially sent me messages about wanting to fight for the draw, Germany has not played consistently with such a strategy. Instead, Germany has tried to attack me as much as possible -- as I suspected Germany would after Germany disbanded Munich and Berlin last Winter. Sure enough, Germany has left those home centers up for grabs. Austria now is in Berlin and can't be chased out by Germany, and Austria also has the positions to make a supported attack on Munich as well (especially if I help). Germany complained in global chat about how it is impossible to affect the board, but Germany created this situation by choosing nihilistic attacks instead of defensive tactics. I've considered pointing this out to Germany, but decided that criticizing Germany would most likely just make Germany want revenge all the more (I have experienced players who, after making bad moves, take out their shame and frustration on the player who dares to point out their mistakes).
- For several turns now I have been apprehensive about Germany seeking revenge on me instead of trying to make it into the draw, and I am starting to think that my apprehension may be vindicated. Revenge is common in Diplomacy. It's easy to succumb to revenge-seeking motivation because there's little else to actually do when playing with sum-of-squares scoring.
I have not played a sum-of-squares scoring match in something like 2 or 3 years, and I feel validated in my choice to avoid such matches. It's clear to me (after a single match!) that with sum-of-squares scoring, every player who starts losing succumbs to nihilism almost immediately. The losing players in this match (Russia, France, and now Germany), other than Austria, have demonstrated nihilism pretty much right after they started losing. I find it unbearable to play against rivals who act like this. The gameplay is nothing at all like draw-size scoring Diplomacy, where every player, no matter how weak, struggles to find some way to make a deal and get into the draw (and would only try to throw the match after finding no way into the draw). The defensive strategies used in draw-size scoring matches are far more interesting to play against, and definitely would make a solo win feel far more "earned" that getting handed one by nihilists. I wrote about this prior to the tournament.
- Oh man, that isn't even taking into account this meta-strategy Germany mulled over in global chat: that it might be better to lose to solo wins (for the purposes of the tournament) than to lose to draws. Maybe that's true? I haven't really thought about it, but if getting to the next round is based on placements, then I think this could be right. I think that losing to a solo win is no worse than losing to a draw, but also all the other fellow-losers have no advantage over you in making it to the next round. If this is true, and I think it is, that seems like a flaw in the tournament design. The tournament rules shouldn't confer an advantage to throwing the match. Recall that because this is sum-of-squares scoring, players with just 1 or 2 centers get almost nothing from making it into the draw (which is bad enough), but now it seems that such a player would actually benefit (in the tournament) from suicide and instead making it into the draw? Good gravy.

Next, let's think about Austria:

Austria will likely take Berlin, and I think I also want Austria to take Munich. Germany is proving up to be a nihilist/revenge-seeker who might try to throw the game to Turkey. In my opinion, the nihilism of Germany is manifest because discussing a plan to throw the game to Turkey in global chat will only decrease the chances that such a plan will work. (In other words, Germany seems so nihilistic that Germany doesn't even care enough to actually effectuate a plan to throw the game.) In my mind, this makes Germany my #1 enemy by far and I have to do everything possible to kill Germany DEAD. Therefore, I will try to make sure Germany loses Munich to someone, probably Austria.
I'm not sure if I want Austria to succeed against Italy or not. Austria's fight against Italy is probably outside of my control. Or maybe what I'm thinking is that whether Austria succeeds depends more on what I say to Italy than to Austria.

As for Turkey:

The main thing I can do against Turkey is pray that Turkey doesn't figure out how to solo win. Turkey will be at least 11 centers after this turn and therefore equal to me in supply-center count. But because Austria is far weaker than Germany, and Italy's eastern defenses are compromised by an Austrian fleet in Ionian Sea, Turkey is far stronger than I am right now. That sure is a problem for me.
The danger of a Turkish solo win is absolutely enormous right now:
- Italy can't defend Ionian Sea, but Turkey could make a supported attack there using Greece and Aegean Sea. If Turkey does this, then Austria's fleet gets to retreat to either Naples or Tunis. If that happens, not only will Turkey control Ionian Sea (a powerful position from which Turkey can make all sorts of successful attacks on Italy), but Italy is sure to lose control of a center to Austria (weakening Italy in terms of number of units, but also making Italy's centers extremely difficult to defend, since Austria will be sitting in one of the key positions). If I were Turkey, I would definitely attack Ionian Sea this way. It's too good of an opportunity to pass up.
  - Note to Self: I think it would be better if Austria ended up in Tunis, because Tunis would be a lot easier for Italy to retake (I could even help Italy do this) than Naples (because Naples can retreat to Rome).
- There are almost no units in position to stop Turkey from overrunning the board with armies. Austria is abandoning everything to try to get a foothold in Germany. Italy has almost no armies, and the ones Italy has are not in position to actually fight for the Balkans. In just 1 year probably, Turkey will have units bordering on Munich and Berlin, centers that Turkey needs to solo win. Ahhhhh!!! I'm more concerned than ever about Turkey's solo-win prospects.
  - Because Turkey can concentrate virtually all of those armies into one single mass on the map, Turkey's effective offensive power is enormous. It means Turkey can make all sorts of attacks that nobody can stop.
- To by sea and by land, Turkey appears to me to be unstoppable right now. If I don't rally at least one other player to the anti-Turkish-solo cause, we're all done for.

It all comes down to Italy:

I need, need, NEED Italy to play well on the upcoming turns. I'm really worried. Italy doesn't send me many messages, complained about one of my messages being too long, and has made several incompetent moves vs. Austria (and did so last turn as well, in my opinion). This means, to me, that even if Italy wants to be my ally and wants to all-out fight Turkey, Italy might still choose poor moves and end up losing to Turkey.
Therefore, I feel desperate. I need Italy to actually start exchanging tactical plans with me and let me help Italy make good moves. Italy's agreement to be my ally is worthless to me if Italy makes bad moves and just dies to Turkey anyways. Accordingly, I'm not going to help if Italy doesn't actually acknowledge the danger of a Turkish solo win and agree to take some action to head that off. Why?
- Here's the thing: if necessary, I think I could form a stalemate line with Austria in Munich and Berlin. I could finish off Germany (together with Austria), and then start support-holding Austria in those positions. Meanwhile, I could just take Spain and Marseilles by force and set up a defensive position in St. Petersburg. If I executed this plan, Austria and I would control 17 supply centers between us (15 to me and 2 to Austria) and set up an impregnable stalemate line vs. Turkey. I think Austria would actually do this with me, both for a chance to be in the draw and to take revenge on Turkey for backstabbing.
- So with that in mind, I'm unwilling to back out of my positions in Portugal and Mid-Atlantic Ocean, only to risk a desperate Italy backstabbing me to get a bigger position behind the usual North-South stalemate line (or for all I know, throw the game to Turkey!). I simply don't trust Italy to do the right thing or to listen to me, or at least I don't trust Italy as much as I trust Austria right now. If Italy says "you need to give me Portugal" or "you need to back off all your fleets" as a PRE-condition for blocking off Turkey, I'm probably just going to backstab Italy and play for the draw with Austria (or even, potentially, race Turkey to a solo win and/or a 2-way draw).
- However, if Italy agrees to immediately send most or all available forces to go fight Turkey (the sane and sensible choice, but only if I'm able to get Italy to see things my way), then I'll probably agree to back away from Italy and let Italy put up a fight vs. Turkey.

What Do I Want To Accomplish This Turn?

I need to:

Destroy Germany. This includes helping Austria into Germany's home centers.
Power up Italy and/or convince Italy to send more units vs. Turkey (ideally, with my tactical advice).

And it occurs to me that I have one last other strategic opportunity: I can tell Germany that I'm willing to support Germany into the draw if Germany won't throw the match to Turkey. Looking at the map, it's apparent that Germany has the potential to throw the match to Turkey. For example, what if Germany uses Baltic Sea to support Prussia to Berlin? That would work, and put Turkey into a potentially solo-winning position (because Berlin is one of the centers that Turkey needs which sits across the stalemate line).

I don't actually have to keep my promise. If I can discourage Germany from throwing to Turkey this very turn, that will probably buy me all the time I need to finish off Germany. If Germany loses Berlin and Munich, then Germany will have just 2 units and probably can't do anything after that to effect the outcome of the match.

Global Messages #2

Turkey: You would almost certainly want a solo if qualification for the semis is what you're thinking of. The winner gets 100 points and everyone else gets zero - more players on equal footing with you. The drawback (maybe not a big one) is that solos are used as tie-breakers.

If you think you have a chance of winning the tournament despite an early setback then you would want a draw as the leader will not be as far off.

Germany: Thanks for the analysis. Follow-up question, who’s more likely to solo, you or England?

Austria, this is probably worth your considering as well. Since we’re going to be eliminated, we may want to try to push the game either to England or to Turkey.

Of course, I don’t think anything I do makes a big difference here. But Austria, you might be able to make a difference.

Turkey: As I see it, to answer the question whether Turkey or England is more likely to solo is: what does Italy want? That is assuming that Germany and Austria get eliminated, of course.

Ignoring current unit locations and only taking into account current number of SCs the points would be split thus (SC#, SoS, points):

England 11 121 46
Turkey 8 64 24
Italy 6 36 14
Austria 5 25 10
Germany 4 16 6

If Austria and Germany get eliminated then the table might look like this (for the sake of argument, I assume that their SCs are evenly split among the survivors):

England 14 196 49
Turkey 11 121 30
Italy 9 81 20

England gains 3 points, Turkey 6 and Italy 6. Not terribly much by any means. However, if someone were to solo, the loss of between 20 and 49 points would hurt and this, perhaps, raises a couple of new questions:

- Would the potential "runners-up" be willing to accept a larger draw due to the threat of losing all their points?
- Would such a threat be real?

This is all rhetorical, philosophical, hypothetical and whatnot but your initial comment got me thinking about this. From a purely play-to-win standpoint I think a 5-way draw is totally lame but from a tournament standpoint it doesn't seem so absurd.

England (me): Well that blew my mind

Germany: To the question of “would such a threat be real?” I think the answer is: probably not. I think it’s kind of an all or nothing sort of deal. If there is not a solo, then there will be a draw in which I, at least, am eliminated, and I suspect Austria as well. It also seems reasonable to assume that Italy’s position in the draw will at least be reduced, but maybe not, since Italy will actually have leverage at that point to threaten to throw a solo to one or the other player.

Austria: And herein lies the problem with tourneys -- playing to the scoring system.

Germany: Eh, I don’t mind another dimension being added to the game. “Pure” diplomacy is my favorite, but variation here and there isn’t so bad.

Secret Thoughts re: Global #2

There's quite a lot I could say about this conversation in global chat, but I only have so much time I can write in this journal per day. A deep analysis of this topic seems too tangential to be worth a deep analysis right now. Here are my key points:

I think Germany is telling the truth. However, I don't understand what Germany has to gain from this conversation. I think Germany is sending messages just for the sake of participating.
I think Turkey is telling the truth, but I also don't know what Turkey is trying to gain here. Is Turkey trying to get players to throw to Turkey? Or discourage them? I'm really not sure.
I sent a message just to remind everyone that I am indeed reading these crazy global messages.

I think this conversation was too cynical and crude for the global chat. Or to put it another way, I'm confused and worried that Germany and/or Austria are going to throw the game to Turkey just to ensure that there isn't a draw.

Messages with Italy

My friend, the upcoming turn is absolutely critical and I'm not quite sure if you appreciate how dangerous the situation is for Turkey's ability to backstab and attempt a solo win. Please read my message carefully:

Turkey can capture Greece while also making a supported attack on Ionian Sea. If Turkey moves Aegean Sea to Ionian Sea supported by Greece, Turkey will 1) capture greece 2) take Ionian Sea, setting up for future attacks on you 3) WORST OF ALL, allow Austria to retreat to Either Tunis or Naples. Yes - if Turkey makes a supported attack on Ionian Sea, Austria is *guaranteed* to take one of your supply centers (by retreating into Naples or Tunis, whichever you leave open) at the same time that Turkey gets positioned to attack you.

Meanwhile, Turkey could obstruct your ability to conquer Trieste using Budapest. For example, Turkey could support Vienna to Trieste, preventing you from capturing any of Austria's centers. Combined with an attack on Ionian Sea, that means Turkey could stop you from getting any builds this turn, and even ensure that you have to disband a unit.

In addition to Turkey's ability to backstab you horribly, you have to consider what's going to happen when Turkey gets 3 builds this turn. Yes, 3 builds, because Turkey is going to capture Warsaw, Budapest, and Greece. Where is Turkey going to send those units? Turkey's not going to send them against me, or against Austria (Turkey has enough to fight Austria already) -- Turkey is going to send them against you. There's nowhere else for Turkey to send those additional units.

After this coming turn, Turkey will send against you: the fleet in Greece, the fleet in Aegean Sea, and all 3 new builds -- and maybe more! Why would Turkey refrain from attacking you? There's nothing that you or I can do in retaliation to Turkey if Turkey makes these attacks. Turkey flat-out told me at the start of the game that Turkey would try for a solo win if at all possible (I know that's weird but Turkey did tell me that).

Therefore, my friend, I have the following advice:

1) Demand that Turkey support your attack on Trieste -- you have nothing to lose, because if Turkey won't support you then Turkey was going to backstab you anyways. In addition, I highly recommend that you attack Trieste using Tyrolia supported be Venice, or else Austria might block your attack just as happened on this turn.

2) Move Tyrrhenian Sea to Naples, Gulf of Lyons to Tyrrhenian Sea, AND Spain to Western Mediterranean Sea. That way if/when you lose Tunis to Austria, you actually have the positions to defend yourself and recapture Tunis. In my opinion, you should have *already* moved Spain to WMS so that you could defend both Tunis and Naples if necessary -- but I didn't pressure you to make such a move, because I was worried that you would interpret such pressure as me trying to trick you or something. But heed my words: I'm not trying to trick you. I'm trying to make sure that you are strong and defended vs. Austria and later Turkey.

3) Move Marseilles to Piedmont. I think that on the coming turns, you will need every single one of your units to defend yourself and it wont' be easy.

4) give me permission to move MAO to North Africa. From North Africa, I can help you re-conquer and defend Tunis at no risk to you (one fleet can't capture anything). If my fleet is in North Africa, that is actually less dangerous to you than where it is now in MAO, since I can't attack Spain from North Africa.

Please seriously consider all that I am saying -- I strongly think that you will not get any builds this turn because I think Austria will take one of your centers to offset the loss of Trieste. I think there's a decent chance that you will actually LOSE a unit this turn because Turkey could interrupt your ability to conquer Trieste let Austria retreat from Ionian Sea. Therefore, every single you that you have need to be positioned to block Turkey.

If you make even ONE tactical mistake that Turkey can exploit, if we leave even ONE unit behind that could have been used for defense, you're going to be crushed by Turkey. Turkey is going to be TWICE as strong as you are after this turn (Turkey will have 11 and you will likely have 6 or 5) and have no other enemy to fight except you. You know you can trust me way more than Turkey because I am all-out attacking Germany, who is a far more difficult enemy to finish off right now than Austria. Plus, if I backstabbed you, you could throw a solo win to Turkey in revenge -- so I wouldn't dare backstab you.

I realize this is a long message and you previously were put off by a long message I sent, but I think the whole game will come down to this next turn and there's so much I have to explain to you as to why next turn is so critical. Right now, you're my best and only (real) ally and I'm trying to do everything I can do help you. I'm really nervous that you might be concentrating on the second tournament match that started and not paying close attempt to this match. You and I have a really good opportunity to get into a 3-way draw with Turkey, and I'm really worried that we'll miss the opportunity if you don't make defensive moves this next turn.

In hindsight, you’re right. I really should have trusted you more and moved east faster......

Everything you said is 100% agreeable, I’ll make my moves ASAP.

Thank you my friend, thank you. I didn’t want to pressure you too much before last turn because I didn’t want make you worry about me. I think you get what I’m saying. But after this last turn, the situation has become too dangerous for me to hold anything back. Turkey is joking about draws and stuff in global chat, but I believe you know (as I do) that those messages are just to disarm us, and Turkey will take a solo win if it’s possible.

I trust you to make at least one or some of the moves I suggested. Thank you for saying that you’ll act to protect yourself.

One last thing: may I have your explicit permission to move MAO to North Africa? The purpose of my fleet being in North Africa would be to help you defend or re-gain Tunis (plus once my fleet is in North Africa it’s actually less threatening in the sense that it can’t attack Spain)

Yeah, sure. No reason not to

Secret Thoughts re: Italy

My complex, detailed message about the tactics Italy should follow to defend against Turkey is sincere. The only thing I'm hiding from Italy is that I think a solo win might still be possible for me. But I truly believe what I said about Turkey's opportunity to solo win and what Italy needs to do to guard against that. It just so happens that Italy guarding against Turkey also improves my ability to solo win. In my opinion, Italy has little choice but to trust me at this point. Italy probably won't make it into the draw with just Spain and Marseilles (and probably doesn't consider that a very good outcome) so Italy needs to send more units eastward to set up a proper defense and just hope that I keep my word.

And, thank the Lord, Italy responded by affirming my message and by agreeing to let me move my fleet to North Africa. I believe Italy; there's little reason for Italy to lie to me about defending against Turkey, and it makes no sense for Italy to give me permission to move to North Africa if Italy is worried about what I might do. I think I have succeeded in building up the credibility with Italy that I previously said was so important.

Now, even though Italy agreed in a very general way to follow my suggestions (Italy uses so few words...), I'll still have to wait and see what Italy actually does.

Messages with Germany #1

I really was going to attack Italy until I saw that you disbanded Munich and Berlin...

I'm gonna respond to your public threat to throw to Turkey as best I can. Here goes:

Without my cooperation, you are very likely to lose Berlin, Munich, and either Denmark or Holland -- and possibly even 1 more if I make a good guess. That puts you at 2 or 1 units after this turn, and you'll be eliminated right after that, probably without being able to do anything relevant (as you observed in global chat).

If you truly want to try to throw to Turkey, I can probably stop you since Austria and Italy are both cooperating with me (especially now that you declared that you'll try to throw to Turkey). But, I'd rather not take that risk. I have the power to ensure you a place in the draw, but this is the one and only time I will make this offer: I want you to cooperate with me this turn (defend yourself as best you can and not support Turkey's moves), and in return I'll play for the draw with you because you'll have essential centers needed for form a line vs. Turkey (or I can put you into those positions shortly).

I am willing to make this offer because I believe that I won't be able to capture Munich and Berlin before Turkey is positioned to solo win. The only non-Turkish players with boots on the ground capable of timely defending Munich and Berlin are you and Austria. If necessary, I will roll the dice with Austria as my ally and try to put Austria's armies into those centers. But Austria is an unreliable player (rarely messages, makes tactical errors) and you are very reliable (always responds to messages, chooses strong tactics). I feel confident that if you and I assembled a stalemate position, we would actually hold it and nothing stupid would happen.

I am open to any particular tactical arrangement you come up with. I'm all ears. But if you don't agree to work with me, or don't fully cooperate (including this turn), I'll have no choice but to eliminate you simply so you can't throw to Turkey.

Actually I was contemplating throwing to you, lol.... You seem to be in the better position to win.

I don’t think I’m in a position to realistically influence the outcome in any way, though.

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #1

So this is my pitch to Germany about how I'll help Germany get into the draw if Germany doesn't throw to Turkey. I've made my pitch in the style of an ultimatum (by saying that the offer will only happen once), for added drama (which I think might appeal to the German player). This pitch is insincere.

Right off the bat, I said to Germany that I would have attacked Italy if Germany had chosen different disbands. This isn't true, but I wanted to put something out there to explain why I didn't attack Italy even though Germany disbanded Burgundy.

I don't think Germany has a chance of making it into the draw. Germany abandoned Berlin and Munich to Austria, and those are the centers Germany likely needs to control to be included in the draw. So although I truthfully think that Germany could make it into the draw with Munich, I don't actually think Germany has a chance of controlling Munich in the end. In order for Germany to make it into the draw without those centers, Germany would need me to voluntarily bypass Holland/Denmark/Kiel, and my situation is not so desperate that I would be willing to do that.

Referring back to Germany's global chat, I don't think Germany can actually influence the outcome of the match. Germany made the choice last turn to leave the German home centers undefended and is now facing the consequence of that: Austria is about to become an ersatz Germany. Germany doesn't have the ability to resist my attacks, and isn't even in a position that could harass me (partly because of my far-sighted moves and other efforts to confine Germany to a penned-in area).

So what am I really trying to do? Trick Germany. Any kind of trick. If I can get Germany to agree to anything specific, then I'll know what Germany's moves will be and can exploit that to my tactical advantage.

Yes, the true purpose of this conversation is just to find out what moves Germany might make so that I can attack Germany more effectively. The purpose of my offer to help Germany is simply so that Germany feels like it is necessary to move exactly as we have agreed. As you may recall, I employed a similar strategy when I backstabbed Germany earlier, and it was very effective.

One other purpose to this conversation is that if I give Germany something to do besides throw to Turkey, maybe Germany won't throw to Turkey (e.g., by using Baltic Sea to support Prussia to Berlin). I'm worried about a Turkish solo win, but not as worried as I'm making myself out to be in the message to Germany. I'm just trying to make it seem like I really would work with Germany.

Lo and behold, despite all the global messages, it seems like Germany wants to throw to...me? Really?

Messages with Germany #2

Wow really? I was telling you before how I’ve been keeping notes on this match (I’ll share with you after, you’ll get a kick out of it, I know it) and I started writing the other day about how worried I am that Turkey will solo win, basically because Austria basically walked out of every center. Maybe I’m not thinking about it the right way though? I’m curious about what you think, just to know

If you’re really interested in throwing, and you think I have the best chance and/or would rather throw to me personally, I’m even more interested than before in keeping you alive as long as possible, haha

And if it doesn’t work, like if I can’t solo win, I would still vote draw with whatever centers you have — either because Turkey becomes the true solo threat (like I was saying in my last message) or out of charity (hey, 3rd place maybe! the 2 or 3 centers could be decisive in getting into round 2, if you cut it close in your other match)

So the way I read the board, Turkey is obviously going to catch up to me this turn, and also either take Ionian Sea or be in position to do so at any time for a devastating attack on Italy (who has very poor positions and a low prospect of getting a build). Further, Turkey will have multiple armies ready to cross the stalemate line into Berlin and/or Munich.

I see my options as:
1) make peace with whoever controls munich and Berlin after this turn (likely Austria?) and form a stalemate line in 1906.
2) race Turkey to Munich and Berlin. Possibly turkey will outplay me and Italy (or someone throws) and win. Possibly I will secure Munich and Berlin, making a solo win impossible for Turkey (and possible for me).

I expect turkey will try to attack Austria’s positions at Berlin and Silesia, so I think that if I support Ruhr to Munich with Burgundy, you will at least block Austria from taking that center. You could also cover Kiel with any of your units or a self bounce. I think that is, far and away, your best chance of making it into the draw.

If you don’t care about drawing and want to go out in a blaze of glory, and more specifically you want to see if you can throw the game to me, then probably you should do those moves (or else just straight up support me into your centers) and also something offensive (eg, convoy Denmark to Livonia; it is possible that turkey won’t be able to cover Moscow on the following turn if turkey thinks I’ll never come through STP with an army).

I normally wouldn’t send these kinds of messages to someone I’m attacking, but you sent a lot of press in global chat trying to think of something you could do, and suggested to me that you might throw, so I’m putting in the extra effort here to come up with ideas of stuff you could actually do.

If you agreed to do the crazy convoy plan, I can agree to not attack Denmark so that you don’t have to disband as many units and can keep the rogue army in Livonia.

I’m going to move Ruhr to Munich and convoy Denmark to Livonia. A solo win by another power would be preferable to a draw in which I hang onto 2 supply centers, so I will set your victory as my first goal, and inclusion in a draw as a secondary goal. Holland will move to Kiel. I’ll be a more effective agent of chaos if you hold up on taking Denmark/Kiel/Munich for as long as possible.

Understood, and I agree. I find myself thinking: I trust you to keep your word, in part, because you have no reason to lie and basically nothing to lose.

Meanwhile, I’ll find a way to prevent Austria from successfully taking Munich. We need Turkey to poke one of Austria’s likely supports, but that might be a tricky guess.

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #2

Now that Germany has opened up the idea of throwing the match to me, I have a bigger opportunity to manipulate Germany than I thought.

As I'm writing this, I think I recall putting down in one of my earlier entries that because I considered Germany as a dramatic player, I could predict that Germany might try to throw the game to me (even though I was the one who backstabbed Germany) because it would be more dramatic to lose to a solo win than to a draw.

So despite Germany's alarming messages in Global Chat this turn, perhaps my earlier understanding of the German player was the correct one? That the player will do whatever is dramatic, and that throwing to my solo win would be such an action? I'm incline to believe Germany is telling me the truth because this idea is consistent with what I was already thinking about Germany.

I immediately changed my tone to be friendly (instead of stern). If Germany is really thinking about throwing to me, it'll go much easier if I seem like I'm just as friendly as I was before.

My tactical and strategic analysis in my messages to Germany is for the most part sincere and accurate. I really do see my options as either trying to form a stalemate line with whatever small power controls Munich and Berlin, or else racing Turkey to a solo win.

The most important part of my proposal to Germany, by far, is my suggestion that Germany could get away with something by convoying Denmark to Livonia. This is a really great suggestion by me and wasn't an obvious idea. I had to look at the board and think hard about what Germany could actually even do to throw the game to me.

If Germany got an army into Livonia, that could gum up Turkey's progress into the middle of the board. It's not much (it really isn't), but it's at least something Germany can do.

To me, the important part isn't whether Germany succeeds with this convoy; the important part is that Germany has agreed to make this move, and I believe Germany will actually do it. That means Denmark won't be supported by Baltic Sea, which means I can much more easily take Denmark. That's all I really care about -- manipulating Germany's tactical plan. I don't really think Germany can do anything meaningful to help me against Turkey.

Messages with Turkey

That turned out okay. No threat to StP and there are some attacking opportunities. Austria is all but done but he can cause some problems for Italy.

I agree. For you and for me, that was a very straightforward turn. Italy guessed rather poorly in my opinion. I don’t think Italy is thinking too hard about those moves. I suppose that sort of thing is what makes both of us a little jittery about the possilbity of a solo win because neither of us will make any mistakes — but Italy might blow it. (Correct me if I’m wrong about how you feel, that is how I feel)

I am okay with Austria temporarily getting control of Germany centers since at least Germany will have to disband and get out of my way. If you’re considering putting Germany’s fleet into Berlin or getting Germany to help you, you should talk that over. If you’re not bothering, then don’t worry about it.

I have had my sights set on all the German home centers for quite some time. However, I’m willing to negotiate. I am willing to help you take one of them just to boost your final score if — prior to that — Italy gets a build. So like if Italy takes Trieste (easy if you help) and Italy blocks Austria and gets a build, it willing to help you take Berlin next year (assuming I can get into position). I’m making this offer so you don’t feel like you have to grab as many centers as possible from Austria. I really want Italy to get a build or even two without having to just cede Portugal, but Italy’s in a poor position because of Austria’s fleet.

I have promised Italy to support him into Trieste and I think it's best that I honour that. I agree that Italy may not be giving too much thought about his moves so somehow we need to make sure that he is the balance that keeps this thee-way in line.

In my opinion, it is best to get Austria out of the way so I am tempted to help Germany to Berlin and then we can deal with him later when there are fewer distractions.

This turn will not be too complicated unless new alliances are springing up in dark alleys. With Italy getting a centre I think we'll both be fairly safe from a solo-driven stab.

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey

Here's the main question in my mind: Is Turkey trying to set up for a solo win, or is Turkey so nervous that I (England) will be the ultimate victor that Turkey will play it safe (Turkey's stated position)?

If I were in Turkey's position, I would attempt a solo win. The reasons I explained at the start of this entry and to Italy are the reasons I would try to solo if I were Turkey. Turkey can seize Ionian Sea by force and get into position to threaten Munich and Berlin, and there's almost nothing anybody can do about it.

I predict that after this turn Austria will control Berlin, Munich and (probably) Tunis. This means Austria -- not Italy -- will have the biggest opportunity to be kingmaker. It seems very unlikely that Austria would throw the match to England (me) just because Turkey backstabbed Italy and attempted a solo win; instead, the threat of a Turkish solo win would allow Austria to employ my favorite strategy of "take yourself hostage" and threaten to throw the game to Turkey if anybody else attacked Austria (at least, that's what I would do if I were Austria).

So I have to juggle these two interpretations of Turkey's messages:

The first interpretation is that Turkey is about to launch an all-out attempt for a solo win and therefore everything coming out of Turkey's press is lies and manipulations.
The second interpretation is that Turkey is honestly a conservative player who would not gamble a respectable draw score just to try to get a solo win, and Turkey is going to prop up Italy in order to prevent any potential English solo win.

Given my read on the Turkish player as my strongest rival (I believe I was seeded highest for this match, but I don't know for sure actually), either interpretation seems plausible.

And you, dear readers, I want you to know that I consider myself the kind of player who would risk a respectable draw for the chance at getting a solo win. I have enough experience that I can look at the board and understand when a solo win has become truly impossible for me, and only at that point do I deliberately play for a draw. Presently, I think it is still possible for me to get a solo win so I will not purposefully play for a draw. However, my own solo win will become impossible if Turkey's solo win becomes inevitable, so I still want to interfere with Turkey's capabilities.

In my message with Turkey, I am playing along with Turkey's attitude. I want to portray myself as understanding that we are mutually concerned about preventing the other from solo winning.

I want to pressure Turkey to make Italy stronger so that Turkey's ability to solo win is reduced. I think that will buy me time to acquire Munich and Berlin. If I can capture those centers, then I'll almost certainly attempt a solo win.

My offer to put Turkey into Berlin is a straight-up lie, but maybe it will lure Turkey into slowing down vs. Italy. If Turkey doesn't keep these promises to help Italy, then I'll know for sure that Turkey is angling for a solo win.

I don't think Turkey will succeed in supporting Germany to Berlin because I believe Germany is going to convoy Denmark to Livonia. But if I'm wrong and Germany moves that fleet to Berlin, there's nothing I can do about that anyways.

Final Thoughts

This is pretty close to what I would have done whether or not Germany promised to help me.

Let's discuss my plan in two parts.

"Italian" theater

I think that I if I attacked Italy this turn, my attack would succeed. I anticipate that Italy will move units to go fight for Tunis. Accordingly, if I made a supported attack on Spain (especially if I poked Marseilles with Burgundy), that attack would work. However, I still think it's too early for me to backstab Italy.

Because I don't have control of Munich or Berlin, a solo win attempt started on this turn could be shut down easily. Italy and Turkey simply need to support-hold Austria's (future) positions in Berlin and Munich (or support-hold whoever's armies are in Berlin and Munich). I will go as far as to say that it would be trivial for Turkey and Italy to shut down my solo win (so long as the power controlling Munich and/or Berlin cooperates). And remember, I need both of those centers to solo win, so even if I manage to get one of them, that's not enough.

So it's simply too early to backstab Italy. Attacking Italy on this turn would not result in my getting a solo win, but it could trigger Italy to throw everything vs. me and put Turkey in position to solo win, which would be a disaster.

I suspect that Turkey and I are both hoping that the other will attack Italy first, because whoever attacks Italy second will probably get the solo win.

I did get Italy's permission to move my fleet to North Africa, so I definitely want to make that move. Whether I help Italy or attack Italy, that's a position I want for my fleet. To get a solo win, I will eventually have to take Tunis, so getting closer to Tunis is an advantage for me. But even if I don't go for a solo win, being near Tunis means I'll be able to prevent Turkey from getting that center. So it's win-win for me. It is absolutely delightful that I got Italy to simply give me permission to move into this space (so that Italy considers this move helpful instead of hostile).

"German" theater

Before talking to Germany, this was my tactical analysis: "I can use Heligoland Bight to support my convoy to Denmark, or I can use it to support Belgium to Holland. Probably Germany will support-hold Denmark with Baltic and might support-hold Holland with Ruhr, so only one of those moves will succeed. Probably it is better to ensure that my convoy to Denmark works so that I don't have to try again next year. It sure stinks that I don't see a way for me to take a center from Germany."

But after messaging Germany and believing Germany's promise to convoy Denmark to Livonia, my analysis is this:

If I support Belgium into Holland with Heligoland Bight and poke Ruhr with Burgundy, I am guaranteed to recover Holland.
If I support Picardy into Belgium with English Channel, I am guaranteed to move Picardy forward into Belgium.
St. Petersburg isn't threatened, and if I support-hold Sweden with Norway, Germany can't make a successful surprise attack on Sweden. Thus, 100% of my currently-controlled centers will remain under my control and I won't have to disband any units.
If Germany successfully convoys Denmark to Livonia, then my convoy to Denmark will work. It is possible that Germany's convoy could simply fail (Turkey could move Prussia to Livonia or self-bounce Warsaw and Prussia) or that Germany lied to me, so I'll throw in that support order from Sweden just in case.

If Germany is lying to me, then this plan is slightly worse than using Heligoland Bight to support my convoy to Denmark (because I'll have to try to convoy against next turn). But if Germany is telling the truth, this plan is much better than my initial plan because it means I'll capture a center from Germany and get a build.

With armies in Holland, Belgium, and Burgundy, I'll be lined-up to conquer the rest of Germany as good as I can be. I can't guarantee that I'll take Munich, but I'll at least be able to get into Ruhr. If I also get my army into Denmark, then I'll be fully lined-up to conquer the rest of Germany. Germany will likely decide to disband Baltic Sea and I'll just sail right into Baltic Sea from Sweden. I'll easily support one of my armies into Kiel, and then I'll have a huge number of armies lined up to fight for Munich and Berlin. So long as Austria/Turkey don't work together to block me, I feel somewhat confident that I'll be able to push Austria out of Munich and Berlin within a year or two.

Online Diplomacy Championship R1 Autumn 190541 min read