It's a Tense Turn. There's a Lot of Possibility

I have options in working with or attacking Germany, and my evaluation of that choice depends on what I think other powers will do.

Here's my analysis:

I want to continue working with Germany until I've crossed the stalemate line (that is, until I think I can acquire Tunis or Moscow). I've said it before, and I'm saying it again. I don't think a solo win will be possible unless I can pull that off.
I might have the ability to backstab Germany here, but I have to think it through. The payoff for destroying Germany could be big, but will likely reduce my chances of getting a solo win. So if I attack Germany now, I think that means giving up on a solo win and instead trying for the biggest possible score in a draw. I don't think I'm ready to go down that path yet, but I'll think about it.
It is possible for Germany to backstab me. It doesn't make a lot of sense for Germany to do so, but it is possible and some people are greedy. I need to think through the scenario of a German backstab on me and how I feel about that.
I can't shake the feeling that Italy won't support me into Portugal because, even though Italy owes me for supporting Italy into Spain, now there's nothing in it for Italy to support me to Portugal.

The German Problem

Based on Germany's repeated expressions that I need to cede Belgium (or possibly Brest, which Germany suggested at the end of last turn), I want to think of how I can somehow appear to be compliant with Germany's request while also working against the possibility of Germany actually getting a build.

Even if Germany is my ally, I don't really want to help

I understand Germany's desire to get a build this turn (instead of me). Assuming that I can only conquer Portugal and that there is no way for Germany to take a center that isn't currently mine, then my cession of Belgium or Brest would be a fair deal. Germany is getting attacked right in the middle of the board by Italy and Austria, and an army is of immediate use to our alliance there. Anything I build will be several turns away from being useful. It's not a big deal for Germany to have 8 SCs while I have 7. If this is Germany's true attitude, it is a completely fair attitude. Nevertheless, I still want to work against Germany getting a build.

I want to avoid Germany having a chance at building a fleet, if possible. If Germany does not get builds, then Germany can't build fleets.
I want to keep Germany weak so that I can eventually backstab Germany.
A German build is unlikely help me. If I thought that additional German builds would be used to help me somewhere (say, eventually help me take Moscow), I'd be more gung-ho about it. But Turkey is likely to have a stranglehold on Moscow, and if not then Germany will expect me to put a German army into Moscow. If I wanted Germany to play a strong defensive game vs. Italy/Austria, then I might want Germany to have additional armies, but I want Germany to be in danger from Italy/Austria so that Germany cannot turn against me. Therefore, I don't really see what additional German armies do for me.

If Germany is fixing to betray me, then I REALLY don't want to help

First, there's Germany's opportunity to take Warsaw. Turkey has recently hinted to both me and Germany that Turkey might support a German army into Warsaw. If Turkey promises to do that for Germany, I might be able to convince Germany that I don't need to cede any center.

In all seriousness, I think it would be outrageous for Germany to insist that I have to cede Brest or Belgium on the same turn that Germany expects to take Warsaw -- even if we assume Italy will support my fleet to Portugal. The idea that Germany needs 2 builds at the cost of my getting 0 builds or even going backwards is not reasonable alliance play, especially coming from someone as friendly as Germany. Sometimes, a player tries to get an ally to cede a center and also backstabs that player in the same turn, so the idea of Germany asking me to give up a center makes me anxious about that.

Germany's tactical plan for backstabbing me would be very simple: get 2 fleet builds at once (at Kiel and Berlin), and then with 3 fleets total, drive me out of Norway and St. Petersburg (in either order) to acquire the 4th fleet likely needed to break into North Sea. It's a long grind, but once Germany has the naval power, it's almost inevitable that I'll buckle. Plus Italy might opportunistically come after my small gains from France.

If Germany insists on taking one of my centers and Warsaw so that Germany gets 2 builds while holding me down, I will reconsider my alliance with Germany altogether.

I am seriously considering backstabbing Germany, but it doesn't look worthwhile

Now that I talked my way into North Sea with an army in positioned to convoy, this may be the best opportunity I will have for the rest of the match to backstab Germany. The problem here is that the opportunity isn't that great, especially if Germany walks into one of my centers.

Here are some scenarios for my backstab:

Germany moves Paris to Brest (or Ruhr to Belgium) + Italy and Germany are honest with me

Germany insists on taking Brest, but I move Gascony to Paris. Alternatively, Germany moves Ruhr to Belgium and Paris to Burgundy (hopefully with success) and I move Gascony to Paris. (Either way, net 0 SC for me)
Italy supports MAO to Portugal (+1 SC for me)
I convoy Edinburgh to Holland instead of Norway (+1 SC for me)
If Germany gets Warsaw, Germany has net 0 SC. If Germany doesn't get Warsaw, Germany gets -1 SC and has to disband. I think Germany will successfully keep all other SC.
With my 2 builds, I will likely get at least one army and try to make follow-up attacks on Germany. These attacks will be difficult because Germany will have a lot of units, but I would probably fight for Brest and Sweden/Denmark first. I will almost certainly have to work with Italy.

Germany is convinced that Warsaw is enough, Italy and Germany are honest with me

Germany moves Paris to Burgundy, likely with my promise of support using Gascony. I hope Germany's move works anyways and move Gascony to Paris (+1 SC for me).
Italy supports MAO to Portugal (+1 SC for me)
I convoy Edinburgh to Holland instead of Norway (+1 SC for me)
If Germany gets Warsaw, Germany has net -1 SC. If Germany doesn't get Warsaw, Germany gets -2 SC and has to disband 2 . I think Germany will successfully keep all other SC.
I get 3 builds and need to have the discipline to build 2 armies, even though I probably will not be able to immediately convoy them both (too many fleets builds prevents an English solo win). I will probably all-out attack Germany, who will be force to disband at least 1, maybe 2 units. Germany will likely crumble, because Germany will not have enough units to defend northern centers with Munich under attack by Italy/Austria (which seems very likely to happen if I blast Germany).

There are a lot of "ifs" in these situations though. If I backstab Germany and Italy doesn't keep the promise to support my fleet into Portugal, my backstab will probably be a disaster (at the very least, I won't have much to show for it). With so much uncertainty, it's difficult to weigh my options. Right now, it doesn't quite seem worth it to backstab Germany.

Would I keep working with Germany?

If Germany is satisfied to take just Warsaw, and I feel reasonably confident that Germany is still trustworthy, I won't focus my attention on backstabbing Germany. Still, I will talk to the other powers to see where my advantage lies. That will require some messaging.

The main reason to NOT stab Germany is the same reason I wanted to work with Germany from the beginning: I want to play for a solo win, and that's only possible if I have control of Tunis or Moscow.

If Italy is strong, I'll never get control of Tunis, and it seems a stretch that I would acquire Moscow. So if I really want to solo win, I should attack Italy first -- not Germany. I could focus on getting Italy to attack Germany so that Germany might tolerate my taking Spain from Italy (and probably Germany would end up taking Marseilles).

To be clear, I'm not going to throw away my chance at making it into a decent draw if I think Germany is being greedy or untrustworthy; I am willing to attack Germany this very turn. But that's not ideal.

More than anything, I have to find a way to persuade Germany not to take one of my centers. I am afraid that if I flat out refuse, that might trigger Germany to end our alliance and backstab me anyways, so I'd rather give one up willingly and maintain our alliance. But there's no tangible interest to me in giving a center to Germany.

Secret Thoughts re: Italy #1

My first order of business is to say every (believable) thing I can to get Italy on my side. I need to know whether Italy will support me into Portugal or not.

I realize I can't really "know," but some kind of credible response from Italy about wanting to support me into Portugal and/or to attack Germany would go a long way in helping me make a decision about attacking Germany.

My messages about my desire to attack Germany are...sincere. I am indeed seriously considering an attack on Germany.

Messages with Italy #1

Thanks for keeping your word on everything last turn. Whew, its been a long break as we waited so much for the retreat! I am kind of glad; I needed the break haha

It looks like you’re ready to help Austria vs Germany, since you support Austria to Bohemia. Is that right? I ask because I have been thinking that you and I would attack Germsny by surprise next year in 1904, but I am open to making an attack this turn if you want to.

For example, I know Germany’s moves. If you are willing to move MAR to BUR (and capture MAR with GoL), I could help you. If I backstabbed Germany, it would be a decent turn.

However, if you want to stick to the original plan and consolidate our capture this turn, then attack Germany in 1904 if it still looks right after we know what Austria and Turkey do, that’s my preference.

If so, then I figure your moves would be:
GoL support hold Marseilles
Marseilles support hold Spain
Spain support MAO to Portugal

Are you still on board with finishing up that plan?

I am confident that Germany will support Norway to SKa, so in 1904 I will be set up to make a massive attack on Germany if you keep your promise to help me take Portugal.

As I said before, I could help you take Paris next year immediately and we could get you Munich if austria helps (or help austria get it). I’ll leave my token force behind (fleet in Portugal and MaO) as a defensive line, and throw the rest against Germany.

I am really excited about this plan and I know you already agreed to some of it; I just wanted to make sure you are still into it.

Messages with Germany #1

Jeez I’m sure glad this retreat turn got dragged out. I got killed at my job and worked a 16-hour day yesterday. I’m running on 4 hours’ sleep. Sheesh.

Okay so let’s you and I figure out everything we need to make happen next turn and see if we can get these other players to dance to our tune.

If you can get turkey to simply even permit you into Warsaw, it’s yours. If Italy keeps the promise to put me in Portugal, it’s mine. If that all works we each get 1 build and move up to 8 centers each. That seems ideal.

We can also destroy Skaggerak, but Russia will have to disband anyways if we assume the loss of warsaw and Moscow. What’s your preference there?

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #1

As always, I'm trying to maintain the friendly tone. Talking about stuff from real life (without breaking my anonymity) is often a way to do that with players who are very talkative.

I am laying things out very simply to Germany. It's possible that, if others cooperate with us, we'll each get a build and stay even in SC count. I haven't even mentioned ceding Belgium or Brest; if Germany wants to talk about that, I'll force Germany to raise the question awkwardly (because it's awfully awkward to say that Germany should get 2 builds and I get zero).

I made sure to point out that I am not taking for granted that we will destroy the Russian fleet, since that truly isn't necessary. Getting into Skagerrak would be incredible if I were going to backstab Germany, because it would set me up for attacks on Sweden and Denmark. However, it would be suspicious if I pushed for this for no justifiable tactical reason.

Messages with Germany #2

My tentative preference would be to keep the SKA fleet around. If Warsaw is not taken, a Russian army build might be even more trouble than dealing with the fleet for another turn.

I do think I can convince Turkey to permit me into Warsaw. With the tournament scoring system, I just don’t see a path forward for Turkey other than through Austria; better if Austria doesn’t get another build.

But, even if Turkey does turn on Austria, it might still pay (from Turkey’s perspective) to support Austria into Warsaw if he expects that would result in a bounce with me. I may tell Turkey I intend to move Prussia there without support (so that Turkey thinks supporting Austria would result in Austria taking Warsaw), but then have Prussia support Silesia in.

If I do commit Silesia to Warsaw, Ruhr will be tied up support-holding Munich and cannot move to Belgium as insurance against failure to enter Warsaw. I could also quickly run into trouble if Austria or Turkey continue to cooperate, Austria gets into Warsaw, and they start probing my stalemate line for vulnerabilities. A new army in Kiel or Berlin would be invaluable in keeping that situation under control.

With the above in mind, I ask your permission to move Paris to Brest. I’m not thrilled with how that leaves Burgundy vulnerable to an Italian attack; if you do consent to my taking Brest, I think it would make sense for Gascony to move to Burgundy. There’s a decent chance of a bounce with Italy, and if you do move in successfully then it will be simpler for my A-BRE to move into Gascony than for it to make its way back to Burgundy.

If I wind up with 2 builds, I would be happy to cede you Sweden (which I think would be easiest) or another territory the following turn, even if that results in my having to destroy a unit.

In summary, I propose:
Pru S Sil-War
Sil-War
Ruh SH Mun
Swe S Edi-Norway
Par-Bre

It occurs to me only now that if I do take Brest, I am much more comfortable with the possibility of a Russian army in Warsaw. And if you do not take Portugal and Warsaw is not taken, that fleet in SKA would be much more of a thorn in our side. So, if we do have me take Brest, I think the move is to support Norway to SKA.

Slightly longer term, we’ll need to time the attack on Italy carefully to preempt reinforcements making their way to North Africa, Piedmont, and to Western Med, but obviously we simultaneously want to avoid making things too easy for Turkey. I wonder if Italy might move to Trieste or Vienna this turn and score a triple build.

Thanks for taking the time to check into this game even after your grueling workday.

Overall your proposal is very strong. Each additonal army you can have in the center is a big deal at the critical moment.

I had not thought about covering burgundy with Gascony, or that it might be valuable to leave Russia stranded with a fleet.

It’s by far the easiest for me to cede Brest — I need time to think through the turn and come to terms with the possibility that I might lose a build on a turn where you get two. I won’t rule it out, but its a lot to think about tactically, especially because we’re unsure about Italy, Austria, and Turkey.

(I’m running fumes and need a good nights rest to think properly)

Apologies, I thought I had replied to your message earlier. I’ll be ready to discuss tmrw morning as well

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #3

From the beginning, I have intended this "secret thoughts" commentary to be written in real-time. I am writing these thoughts down as I send the messages (some immediately before, some immediately after). I have simply not had enough time today to record all my thoughts about my messages with Germany. I messaged Germany back-and-forth all day long and put a huge amount of effort into my messages.

I think writing, and for that matter reading, so much commentary would just be exhausting. So instead I'm just going to summarize what I had in mind going into these messages, and then you'll just have to watch a master at work:

I'm trying to convince Germany if at all possible not to take one of my centers. Ideally, I want Germany to think I'm not making a big deal about it, but I'll make a big deal if I have to. I am willing to cede a center to Germany if I have to in order to keep the peace (I think it's just too early for a backstab), but only if I can't persuade Germany to forgo that plan.
I need to use as much charisma as I possibly can to dissuade Germany from wanting to backstab me. I don't think Germany is about to backstab me, but I doubt that Germany would give away any intention to do so. Thus, I have to assume that Germany might be secretly thinking about backstabbing me.
Accomplishing the first two goals also means persuading Germany that I am not going to be the backstabber here.

Messages with Germany #3

Oh you did and I really appreciate that. I forgot to say something in reply. It’s a 2 day ordeal...first the day of working without sleep, then the next day of working without having had sleep.

I’m taking some family to a video game tournament tomorrow. I’m not participating, so I can put some real work into this game

Sorry I just didn’t want you to think I was leaving you out to dry or something. I haven’t even messaged the other powers this turn.

I think there’s a 75% chance Italy supports me to Portugal. I think you have a 0% chance of getting Warsaw unless turkey promises it to you, in which case I think you have a 50% chance of getting it.

I think I’m leaning towards destroying skaggerak just because I want to be able to vacate North Sea again. Or to put it another way, if I’m certain not to get a build then I think skaggerak has to be destroyed or I might not be able to fight Italy properly because I need at least 3 fleets to win that fight against 2 Italian fleets and right now I only have 2 I can use (if Italy fails to support me to Portugal, that’s the scenario where I need throw in another fleet immediately; if Italy supports me then actually we’re okay with what we have, see my explanation below)

Italy did not respond favorably to my previous encouragement to fight Austria instead of you( moving to tyrolia and now supporting Austria) , so i think I should promise Italy that I will attack you in 1904 if I get Portugal. If Italy has resolved to work with Austria, then there’s nothing to lose and I indicate that Italy will get something out of supporting me to Portugal, increasing the chances that it will happen. The jig will be up when I have cleared ceded you Brest, but the following turn we can probbaly take Spain (I’ll likely have Portugal, MAO and burgundy and we can set up by supporting your army to Gascony. Italy will be 1 Turn behind with those new builds and won’t be in position.)

Support Munich with Ruhr is a given
Gascony to Burgundy is the right move to match with ceding Brest. You could even support with Munich, why not

I think I have to at least try for Portugal. I’ll feel so stupid if I don’t and I would have captured it

I think my old plan for convoy and destroy ska is good (for the reasons I said) - support convoy with Sweden, support Norway to ska with Denmark

I think your idea about misdirecting which army you will use to take Warsaw is worth it. It confers a tiny potential advantage but at basically zero cost to you

That’s all tactical my analysis at this time, and my restatement of your tactical ideas as well, I think that is a decent plan

My caveat is, I mean you can tell, I’m not as excited as I normally am about our plans because I really don’t like the idea that I might go backwards a point. I understand that importance of long-term strategic goals and all that, but it’s hard to agree to deliberately give up a center in a SoS-scoring game unless it is truely necessary.

That said, it is a huge advantage if you get another army build , and even more of an advantage if you get two. That is undeniable because Austria is lining up to attack you and Italy and turkey are setting that up. I can’t overlook this.

I also appreciate your offer to give up a center on the following turn and that’s probbaly what I need to hear to agree to a plan like this.

Are you willing to disband your fleet if this comes to pass? (That i disband this turn, but then you cede another center the year after without getting a capture). If the idea is to maximize our army presence in a line from one end of the map to the other, the value of that fleet will be small. If you cede Sweden, I can pass that extra fleet through Sweden to convoy your army to Livonia or wherever, or just pull away.

I realize that there are a lot of contingencies in what I’m asking, but I want to make my attitude clear on what I want to happen if things go poorly for me now rather than bringing it up out of the blue afterwards. I have so far put my complete trust in you this game every turn, but some where more serious than others. this turn is on the same level as our autumn 1901 moves (where I risked getting zero builds on a turn where you could get 3). This plan we’re talking about asks me to do the same thing again (get zero builds and risk having to disband on a turn where you might get 2 builds). If it doesn’t go well for me with Italy, I’ll want to throw evething that way, and I would want you to show me that we’re in this to the bitter end by giving up your only fleet if you have to disband the following year (I realize you might not have to disband if we capture more centers). Is that something you can agree to?

Hey, I’m once again intoxicated and messaging you! I contemplated directly stating I would go so far as to destroy my fleet if I get 2 builds and you get none and I give you a build, the idea being that the destruction of the fleet would close the last remaining door to my stabbing you. I removed that portion of my message because I didn’t take the time to contemplate whether losing the fleet would impair me too much in terms of convoying my A-Swe somewhere useful. But yes, I absolutely am comfortable committing to destroy that fleet given how much risk you’re taking this turn if we go through with the Brest plan.

I’m not as enthusiastic this turn either, in part because I sort of anticipate a situation in which I’m deadlocked on land and to attack me and net some additional centers is a practical option for you. But, I don’t know, it’s foolish for me to admit this but I just want to throw caution to the wind and continue to trust you fully.

So, yes, I will order Denmark to support Norway to SKA, and if I do get 2 builds I will destroy my one fleet if the subsequent turn when I hand you one center I have to destroy a unit

One more thought: Given how disengaged Italy is, we might have a shot at prolonging his belief that you will move against me even after I take Brest.

Another thought. I get the sense that we’re both busy people, but people who love this wonderful game Diplomacy. We both spent an unusually large amount of our limited time writing to one another and doing our best to solidify this alliance of ours. We both are hitting brick walls in terms of trying to forge a substantive connection with any other power (though I guess you probably have a decent relationship with Italy, at least).

Even if one or the other of us might be best served to stab the other, it just seems to me like it would be a lot less stress and effort for both of us to stay the course and keep right on operating in complete confidence of the reliability of one another. The potential consequences are: oh damn I lost some SCs and might be eliminated from a game that I was truly enjoying, but that ceased to find nearly so enjoyable the moment this seemingly perfect ally of my betrayed me.

That is to say, I do take this game seriously, but if our alliance breaks down it will matter a lot less to me. Like anything else in life, the significance of this game is grounded entirely in imagination; any meaning it has is assigned.

In short, I’m just plain never going to stab you because the whole reason I’m having fun here is our alliance. To win without you would leave me feeling hollow. To betray you for a few extra centers would leave me feeling hollow. To keep right on doing my best to maximize our supply center count while taking care to make sure we finish as close to equal as possible, well, that’s really all that I have the time, energy, or motivation to do.

Unless you object, I will order Par-Bre
Mun S Gas-Bur
Ruhr SH Mun
Sil-War
Pru S Sil-War
Den S Norway-Ska
Swe S Edi-Norway

We have an agreement. It’s not a gonna be a great turn, but it’s the best we can do. It’s important to have a shared understanding of what we’re going to do in the medium-term in case our fortunes go south instead of our units. It’s worth putting in the diplomatic effort now so that we at least feel good about each other.

We’re not going to get a great turn until Italy/Austria/turkey breaks up. If they refuse to do it, then we’re heading for a 5 way draw and that’s that. I’ve done everything I can think of to shake them up (and I’m sending more messages today), so we just have to be patient.

I understand your concern, and also I appreciate your frank expression of it. This doesn’t exactly get us anywhere but it may make you feel better about our alliance, so here’s why it would not be smart for me to attack you EVEN IF we had a poor relationship:
1) If we blink first, one of the eastern powers (most likely turkey) would by far be the one to profit. Italy is across the stalemate line and could break through into the west in full force fairly easily if we fight. Italy and Austria might take Munich. Turkey might have a free hand to backstab those other two consequence-free. It’s still possible for me to me eliminated if Italy breaks into the west, and possible for turkey (or someone else)to solo win because you and I control nothing on the other side of the stalemate line and we won’t easily get Spain and Mar back unless Italy blows it (which I’m really hoping for). Those are all objective considerations that come from the board itself and not taking into account the player personalities of the players.

2) I could only possibly backstab you for a gain of 1 SC this turn. I could stab you by moving to Paris and Holland. With the loss of Brest, that’s just 1 SC (I could cover Brest with MAO but then I wouldn’t get Paris so that’s a wash and forgoes Portugal). In my experience, stabbing an ally over 1 SC is asinine. I am not, I am not, how can I put this? going through the scenario where I stab you in order to scare you or because I spent my (scarce) time coming up with Stab plans — I am pointing this out to make you feel comfortable. You have an assessment of how I am experienced playing this game, so you know that I know that stabbing an ally for a single SC is a terrible strategic idea no matter WHO your ally is — even an ally you don’t like. That is an objective strategic heuristic that good players apply regardless of the personalities of the players.

3) I wouldn’t change sides under normal circumstances, and I’m not about to when I have a GREAT ally. We have played flawlessly together and seem to be the strongest players (other than maybe Turkey). That gives me the belief that we have the patience and compassion for each other that is required to bring an alliance to a big number of centers, to think strategically about the whole match instead of just counting points each turn. I have to take my own advice on this — I said how it feels bad to risk going backwards, but I also had kind of cloudy thinking due to not paying the same attention to the game as I am now. It’s clear that you can forgo a center at a later time and the key thing is to get you as many armies as you can get NOW if we’re going to capture more centers than what we already have. I mean heck we can trade a center at the last turn before we vote draw; I’ve done that plenty of times.

To continue point #3, it’s important to me that you can agree to disband your 1 fleet (only if it comes to that) because that will be required for us to fight with that maximum efficiency (my allocation of units to the front will be veeeeery tight if I have to disband this turn, and you will have to cede Sweden to my fleet, so the role of your fleet in supporting and convoying would have to be displaced by my fleet or else you’re disbanding an army, which is counter-productive). That’s because I didn’t want you to offer that you will disband a unit, only to later realize that it likely means disbanding your only fleet. I have emphasized the trust I have placed on you in previous turns and now in this turn to encourage you to go “all in” the same way that I am. And I’ll pull back out of North Sea of course l, I don’t think I said that (almost goes without saying)

You’re exactly right that it would be extremely difficult for us to fight each other, especially since Italy, Austria and Turkey are so useless and inscrutable. It would take a ton of work and maybe not pay off at all. I do have to consider that I have a real job and can only put so much time into this game, like anything else. Right now, and I think you are saying you share this feeling, it doesn’t feel like work at all to play this match. It feels like a chore to message the other 3.

If we work together, the outcome will be, for our alliance, that we had a fun time until the end and we got decent scores. The other powers cannot take any of that from us by force; our alliance will either die by suicide or conclude the draw on our terms.

That’s worth something in itself, and also will likely lead to the best outcome we can get (for strategic reasons I already said).

We got this.

I reached out to Italy about helping the attack on Munich and getting Italy into Paris if Italy continues to work with me after supporting me into Paris.

Open question: maybe I should move STP to barents this turn? Then I could support my army forward to STP next spring. I was so sure Turkey would be I’m msocoe by now I hadn’t thought of that move until this moment

Otherwise:
EDI to Norway vis North Sea
Norway to Ska
MAO to Portugal (fingers crossed)
IRI to MAO
Gascony to Burgundy

Deftly articulated re: practical reasons to maintain our alliance independent of player personalities.

I think moving St. P to Barents is definitely the best move. Barents alone should be able to support an A-Norway in, but if Turkey magically gets a unit in Livonia as well then my A-Swe can move to Finland to guarantee successful entry.

I also agree with the other moves you have proposed for yourself. Here's to hoping Italy follows through.

Understood.

The transition between early game and mid game is this very turn (shocking to say that about 1903). If Italy or turkey help, we will regain our momentum going into “round 2” so to speak.

We know what we’re doing now, so let’s spend the rest of the turn concentrating on our rivals.

Cheers, mate

Secret Thoughts re: Russia

I'm am absolutely certain that some players would criticize my decision to ignore Russia. They will say that I have a missed opportunity to get Russia's help for revenge against Germany. Indeed, getting the help of revenge-seeking players is a common path to a solo win.

And normally, I would consider it. The problem here is that the Russian player tried to get revenge after just 1901, without even having been seriously tricked. The Russian player is just too unpredictable to me, too volatile, and has just as much interest in getting revenge against me (I also lied) as with Germany (who I refused to help Russia attack, which could transfer Russia's sentiment). If I felt that there were a legitimate reason for Russia to have wanted severe revenge against Germany, I would probably consider reaching out to Russia or trying to make a deal that could advance me vs. Germany. But because Russia's ire seems to be based on nothing, I don't trust that Russia's revenge will be limited to Germany. I really don't.

I don't deem Russia worth talking to because I think there's just as much chance of my messaging causing harm as benefit. In my experience, a player who has chosen a revenge target arbitrarily (that is to say, chosen a target who doesn't really deserve such ire) is not to be trifled with; that target can easily change to become the next person who is messaging them. Why? Because if it takes so little to anger that player, the player can easily decide that you're some kind of "idiot" (or whatever) for refusing to help them get their revenge. I've seen it happen many times. I think it is safer to ignore a crazy-seeming player.

Secret Thoughts re: France

If this were a Draw-Size scoring match, France would probably be trying to hang on for dear life. I would expect lots of messages from France trying to convince me to do something to make keeping France around worthwhile to me. But since this is Sum-of-Squares scoring, France is probably praying to be eliminated. I doubt France messaged Italy either.

It's also hardly worthwhile to message near-dead players for a last-minute deal in Sum-of-Squares scoring, because in my experience they're just as likely to take revenge on the player who dares try to message them as anybody else.

Messages with Turkey #1

These deadlines work in a strange way. I feel that I have wait forever for simple retreats and builds and then I have almost no time for spring and autumn.

I will move to Moscow this turn as Russia has outlived his usefulness. Perhaps I should have done so last turn to give myself a chance of taking Warsaw but I think I'll rather focus on holding on to my assets and let Austria and Germany fight over Warsaw. Do you have an opinion on the fate of Warsaw?

Austria and Italy are apparently moving against Germany and I am reluctant to distract them. I cannot sit and watch forever, though. You help Italy last turn; does that mean that you find E/T/I a feasible draw option? I think Italy is a better player than Austria is so the latter will be easier to take on.

I'd be very happy to hear your thoughts.

Here’s something that might be helpful to you: I believe that Germany and I will successfully disband the Russian fleet, so if nobody takes Warsaw, Russia will build an army at Warsaw. I don’t think it will be a problem if Russia rebuilds, but maybe you do. Idk.

I can also see that Germany could attack Warsaw with Silesia. If Austria tries to dislodge Silesia, then Germany will likely take Munich no matter what you put for your orders. Something to consider.

I’m ambivalent about whether Germany is the best one to get Warsaw. If Germany takes Warsaw, that’s another build for Germany, which could possibly end up as a fleet (but I sort of doubt that, it would telegraph too much and Germany would need reinforcements). So a point to Germany is usually bad for England, but here I think maybe not. 1) Germany will have to send in more and more armies to protect the position, so it won’t result in an attack on me by Germany 2) we can push Germany back out of Warsaw with little effort if we cut Germany out of the draw. 3) I could pressure Germany to cede me a center elsewhere to set up for a stab

So what I’m saying here is that if you allow Germany to get Warsaw because you want to, I have no objection. I won’t consider that counter to our alliance, and I don’t think that locks us in to playing with Germany to the draw (but we obviously still could). But it’s just as fine with me if you stop Germany from taking Warsaw for the usual reasons that I want my ally weaker than myself and that I don’t want any fleet builds possible.

I do not believe you can put Austria into Warsaw this turn, so in my mind I rule that out. It’s just a choice between Germany and Russia.

I do consider E/I/T a viable draw in general. I don’t know if I’ll agree to it this match.

I have offered a LOT to Italy to induce Italy to give me Portugal and attack Germany with me. To me, it’s critical that Italy support my fleet to Portugal, something Italy promised me for quite some time. If that happens, a show of good faith, then I’m ready to change sides and attack Germany in 1904. So that’s partly out of either of our hands.

Do you desire me to attack Germany soon and play for a draw with Italy? That’s a real question I’m asking - I may follow your lead on this one.

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey #1

I revealed to Turkey that I intend to destroy the Russian fleet together with Germany. First of all, I hope to establish credibility with Turkey when those moves really happen. Second, I do want Turkey to be able to consider what will happen when that fleet rebuilds as an army. I wouldn't like Russia rebuilding that fleet as an army if I were Turkey. So by pointing out that Russia's fleet will be destroyed, I make Turkey feel the pressure to put either Germany or Austria in control of Warsaw this turn.

My points to Turkey about how I'm "ambivalent" about Germany taking Warsaw are...true. After I got around to writing this message out, I realized that there were (in my view) a roughly equal number of pros and cons to Germany getting Warsaw. Even though Germany getting Warsaw gives Germany a build, I think it might help my ability to backstab Germany as much as hurts because Germany might be lured into sending more and more forces to reinforce Warsaw. So at the start of this turn, I was thinking that I really wanted to avoid Germany getting Warsaw if I could, but now I actually don't care and was honest with Turkey about that. I hope this bolsters my credibility with Turkey by a lot.

I also told Turkey a partial truth about what I think about Italy. My points about the interactions between me and Italy are true. My intention to attack Germany immediate after (if Italy lets me into Portugal) is false.

It sounded to me like Turkey was hoping that I'd rather play to a draw with Italy and Turkey than Germany and Turkey. I don't know why Turkey would want that exactly (keeping Italy in the draw probably means less supply centers for Turkey), but that's what I think Turkey is telling me. So I decided to sort of offer to Turkey that I would play for that outcome (E/I/T) if I got into Portugal. I'm hoping that this offer will motivate Turkey to encourage Italy to support my fleet into Portugal (the chances of that actually happening seem slim, but it can't hurt to try).

Messages with Austria

Anything going on? I’ve got a feeling that Turkey is trying to worm out of giving you warsaw. By not moving to Moscow (which would have worked), Turkey could support you with Ukraine and Germany can still block you from taking Warsaw. To me, that seems deliberate.

I have no particular desire to see Germany get Warsaw, and I was so sure that Turkey was going to move to Moscow, so now I feel like something’s up. It’s fishy. I don’t want you to be harmed or kept weak by Turkey.

You don't seem to have much loyalty to your ally.

No, not really. I have been scheming and scheming on how to successfully backstab Germany, who is the only meaningful threat left to me on the board. However, I am waiting on Italy to keep a promise to support my fleet into Portugal. If Italy does that, I will conclude Italy is in fact my ally and therefor the better ally for me (strategically) and open up my attack against Germany. But if Italy doesn’t keep the promise to give me Portugal, then it’s clear Italy will just attack me if I fight Germany. I won’t budge, and the match will likely stalemate in the west. Then it remains to be seen if Italy and Turkey tolerate your existence and we get a 5-way draw, or they don’t and the game continues.

So yeah, in my mind a lot hinges on whether Italy supports my fleet to Portugal. I know you have no say in that at all, but also neither do I exactly. I’m just sharing my thoughts on the match.

I hope Turkey remembers that it was I that put him in that position.

In my experience, Diplomatic memories tend to be short in a tournament setting.

Secret Thoughts re: Austria

Austria hasn't messaged me since Autumn 1902, which is real-time has been more than 1 week. In my opinion, that's rather disengaged from the match, and disappointing for me as England (since I consider Austria to by my most natural ally, other than Turkey).

Since Austria didn't respond to my last message in Autumn 1902, I ignored Austria as well. I'm trying not to over-message players who aren't interested in what I have to say. It's a waste of my time (surprisingly precious since it takes just as long or longer to write these "secret thoughts" as it does to come up with and write all my messages) and probably would just annoy a player who doesn't want to talk to me.

My press with Austria has 2 purposes:

To scare Austria into believing that there is an impending Turkish attack. I am giving sincere tips to Austria that I think Turkey will attack soon. My prediction that Turkey will attack is truthful; not only does it make strategic sense for Turkey to attack Austria (which is why Austria shouldn't have helped Turkey, but whatever), but Turkey has started to explicitly discuss attacking Austria. I want Austria to successfully defend against such an attack. So long as Turkey cannot conquer Austria, Turkey cannot solo win.
To find out if I can manipulate Austria into encouraging Italy to support my fleet into Portugal. This aspect of my messages is a rather complicated intermingling of sincere and insincere ideas. Although I think it is true that Austria will eventually get ground down by Italy and Turkey if I refuse to attack Austria, I am not going to attack Germany solely because Italy supported my fleet into Portugal. I am simply coming up with the most persuasive story I can as to why Austria would want Italy to support my fleet into Portugal.

Let me also note that Austria's responses to me are short and doubtful. They're somewhat suspicious and verging on hostile. I do not know what Austria is trying to convey to me through these messages. What does Austria want from me? I have no idea. Austria seems like a poor player, and I doubt Austria will make it to the end of this match due to Austria's negligent press and poor choice of strategy.

Secret Thoughts re: Italy #2

My thoughts here can't be explained without reference to the timestamps on the messages and the day of the turn, which is something I've mostly left out of my commentary. Let me explain what has happened here:

I messaged Italy at 9:46 AM EST on Saturday. The end of the turn is 3:30 AM EST. By 3:45 PM EST, Italy had not responded to my initial message. Furthermore, Italy had entered orders (the webDiplomacy interface tells you if all players have entered their orders). That means Italy had most of a day to respond to me, and instead ignored my message and entered orders anyways.

What the heck is that about? That freaks me out. That makes me think Italy won't support my fleet into Portugal.

Messages with Turkey #2

I am not going to help Austria into Warsaw so Germany will probably get it with his army in Prussia; he says he is going to attack from there. The only combination that can stop it is Gal - War and Boh - Sil and I do not find that likely. Austria is always very guarded when it comes to discussing his moves so I have little to offer there.

We will see soon enough where Italy stands in all this. If he supports you to Portugal and is involved in an attack on Munich then we can most likely work with him. If he fails to do either of those things we need to consider carefully how to proceed. I asked Italy if he'd honour his promise of supporting you to Portugal but I haven't received a response.

Do you really need to destroy the Russian fleet? I think he is more of a nuisance to Germany than you by tying down units in both Sweden and Denmark.

I am not pressuring you to attack Germany at this point - I think it is too early. If our cooperation sticks, however, he will become the odd man out when Russia and France are gone as I believe Italy and Austria are very close.

Germany offered to not destroy the Russian fleet, but I turned that down. I want Russia back in Warsaw being a nuisance to someone else or to be out of the game. 1) I don’t want the uncertainty of Russia deciding to spite me for refusing to spite Germany, or something equally ridiculous. 2) I’ll get my fleet into SKA, which sets up a backstab potentially. 3) I don’t want Germany to have an excuse to have a fleet in Denmark.

I agree that Germany might be easy to whittle down next — I’m really trying to hedge for that possibility.i agree that you aren’t pressuring me.

My attack has to come in 1904 or later, since I want to know if Italy is going to fight with me or against me. Thanks for looking into that for me. Italy hasn’t responded to me either.

At his request, I confirmed with Austria that I will not contest him for Warsaw. I told him that my plan was to take Moscow and then move Mos - Liv and Ukr - Mos to attack StP. What I did not mention is the fact that with that setup Warsaw is within range. His response was that he was going to get adventurous with Bohemia and Galicia, whatever that means.

It is not unusual for Italy not to return my messages. I think I've received about five from him all game.

I completely understand you wanting Russia out of your hair. I think he won't be able to build, anyway, as his last supply centre will be renamed Warschau by the end of the year.

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey #2

The only thing at all useful to me from Turkey's replies is the hint and then the outright statement that Germany will get Warsaw. That's huge and I need to re-think and re-work my press with Germany.

Turkey argued against destroying the Russian fleet, so to bolster my credibility I explained why I think destroying the fleet is a good move. It's possible that Turkey is trying to trick me into making a bad move. But if Turkey genuinely thinks destroying the fleet is not in my interest, maybe Turkey will have more respect for me after reading my explanation.

I simply have to keep open the idea that I will attack Germany. It seems really unlikely that I can break up I/A/T if Turkey thinks I am loyal to Germany.

Messages with Germany #4

Alright, I recieved extensive press from Turkey asking my permission to support your army into Warsaw, and a bunch of related stuff that seems very sincere and accurate (no press from Italy, vague messages from Austria). Turkey claimed to have had the impression that I would consider it anti-English if Turkey helped you take Warsaw, but I dispelled turkey of that and turkey seemed very pleased that I have this opinion. I made sure to act very gung ho about this so that I could come back and talk to you about it. Turkey talked to me in detail about how to proceed after you get Warsaw. I now rate your chances of taking Warsaw at 90%+.

Due to not hearing a thing from Italy despite Italy entering orders, I rate my chances of getting Portugal at <50%.

With this information and analysis in mind, are you willing to reconsider our moves? I think what is very likely to happen is that you will take a foreign center this turn and I will not, which is the reverse of what I was thinking this morning.

1) I won’t insist on destroying skaggerak. That’s not needed. I think Russia will have to disband. I can move Norway to Norwegian instead.
2) i could support Paris to Burgundy with Gascony. That would ensure us a small head start against Italy. You wouid be able to hold Munich with Ruhr and your new build at Berlin long enough to bring back Sweden to Kiel if you wanted to.

I appreciate that I already agreed to different moves, but my feeling that Italy is about to attack both of us is very high and that Turkey will help you is also very high. It’s not so much that I care about the loss of a center (it matters but like I said is a temporary thing) but also losing a turn in the fight against Italy. If Italy builds in Venice, Italy can move an army to piedmont in spring and shut down our chance of taking Marseilles. If we are in burgundy and Gascony, Italy has a 50/50
Shot at guarding Spain or Marseilles (or be guaranteed to lose if I can get France to try something) and that guess could determine the rest of the match against Italy, because it is almost certain to fail to guard WMS or bounce NaO, giving me 1 Free turn to thread my fleets through Gibraltar. As soon as Italy has an army at piedmont, GoL will be free to hold Spain, move to WMS, bounce against Spain, etc. the guessing game is far harder if we are one turn behind.

My analysis is coming from the perspective that I need to all out attck Italy instead of the perspective that I have Italy hosed.

What do you think?

et me add that I’m just trying to suggest the best tactical choices for our alliance given the situation as I recognize it, and if there’s any sense of urgency in my time its only because the turn is 2/3rds over and I don’t know about our ability to go back and forth. I’m not upset or anxious or anything like that, and I don’t have any trust problem with you. I haven’t had one and I don’t now, and that’s not where I’m coming from.

If anything, not putting my fleet in skaggerak wouid reduce ability to attack you on a future turn, etc.

Just got back from a hike which I should’ve warned you about, I’ve read all your press and am about to read press from Turkey and get back to you with my opinion

That's all I can ask. I won't force the issue -- I'm just making my case.

Okay, this is interesting. I had asked Turkey if he might support Prussia into Warsaw, and he told me there was a 50% or lower chance that he could do that. He asked why I don’t have Silesia move to Warsaw with support from Prussia, and I told Turkey that I was concerned about Austria entering Silesia. He sent me a message some time later (while I was on my hike, and I presume after speaking with you) guaranteeing that he would not support Austria into Warsaw.

But, he said nothing about supporting Prussia into Warsaw, which leads me to conclude that Turkey was being less than honest in soliciting approval to support me into Warsaw.

I’m of the mind that Turkey was probably being honest about not supporting Austria and I probably will be able to enter Warsaw successfully. But I’m puzzled and second guessing myself as to why Turkey would ask if he could support me and then not extend assurances that he would support me. But I also trust your ability to smell out BS.

Even if I do get into Warsaw successfully, I worry about what happens when Austria enters Silesia and there are 4 Austrian and Turkish units adjacent to Warsaw. BUT I also see your point re: Italy being able to shut us down immediately with a move to Piedmont.

I think we should press forward with forcing the SKA disband it I trust your judgment. I’ll order the support Norway to SKA and leave it to you to decide.

I will change my orders:
Paris to Burgundy

And I’ll touch base with you again after I finger back from grocery shopping.

Come back*** excuse me

Right. I’m back.

Given that Italy probably isn’t letting you into Portugal, it makes more sense to risk a tricky situation involving Austria in Silesia and me failing to get into Warsaw (and consequently not having a build in Berlin) than to risk cutting ourselves off from beating Italy.

That Turkey did not agree to support me into Warsaw is troubling, but I share your optimism that if I support Silesia in, I will be successful.

Please do have Gascony support París to Burgundy. And if Italy does fail to support you into Portugal, all the better that we conveniently have casus belli immediately to begin attacking Italy.

I’ll keep my order as follows:
Den S Norway-SKA
Sil-War
Pru S Sil-War
Ruh SH Mun
Par-Bur

Please confirm that you’ll be supporting Gas to Bur and that you continue to believe that the balance of risk is such that we should not have me take Brest.

[copy/paste here your disclaimer about not being anxious or upset or anything, but just trying to work things out before the end of the turn]

Confirmed. Gascony support Paris to Burgundy. I think you will get Warsaw and we will benefit from the upper hand against Italy, who I don’t think will support me because I haven’t heard a word after sending messages twice today.

Also, if I am wrong and Italy gives me Portugal, I can hold off my build as a show of good faith AND/or still cede you a center next year (like Belgium as I have been promising) because we will conquer Spain with ease, so that we stay even.

I just got back from taking my family to the video game tournament. It was a 12-hour affair. Lot of downtime but I’m glad I had it to put so much work into the turn.

OH shoot you sent me more messages than I realized, I will go over everything once more and get back to you in say 30 minutes or so

I think the critical thing was just confirmation that I am moving Paris to Burgundy, so please don't feel too much of a rush to read and respond to everything else I mentioned.

Okay here we go--

As far as Turkey goes, I think Turkey precisely said to me that Turkey would allow you to make your supported move into Warsaw and do something else with Ukraine. I think Turkey is being a little odd in those messages because Turkey is trying to obscure exactly when and how Turkey is going to attack Austria, or something along those lines. I also think the Turkish player is overly serious about "not lying" and sends vague messages to avoid lying. The important part, to me, was that Turkey wanted my permission (so to speak) about permitting your army into Warsaw. My take is that Turkey was trying to fish out whether I wanted to play for a draw with you or with Italy (that is my take because Turkey flat-out asked me), and wasn't going to support you to Warsaw if I plan to cut you out of the draw, and also didn't want to alienate me because Turkey does want to play for a draw with me (even if I don't like Turkey's slippery style, I do think Turkey is trying to get me to play ball). Turkey also hasn't explicitly promised to do anything to me before, that I can recall, so that's unusual and therefore much more credible. The whole thing, the gestalt, convinced me Turkey is telling the truth.

I have a strong sense that this year will be the end of Austro-Turkish cooperation. Turkey hasn't helped Austria get anything, and if Turkey won't even help Austria get Warsaw, I think there will be a falling out. Turkey is going to get yet another build, and will have an enormous incentive to attack Austria.

Accordingly, I think Austria lining up an army into Bohemia, if that really happens (which means forgoing a build, and Turkey getting a build) will only serve to bring forth the Turkish attack on Austria even sooner. And if not, then Warsaw was never going to be defensible in the long run anyways (Warsaw isn't defensible if I/A/T holds). You will be able to hold the line at Berlin/Munich no matter what , because you can easily back up your units (some combination of prussia, silesia, and your fleet). Meanwhile, I would just feed you Belgium and eventually get you into Marseilles if we ever make progress against Italy. So to me, everything long-term depends on still having a shot against Italy after not getting into Portugal.

The benefit of jump-starting a war against Italy is huge and at least gives us the ability to control our own side of the stalemate line if we can pull it off. To me, that's worth a great deal, and opens up a lot of possibilities for me to make it up to you with other centers without risking our team total. I mean you get it, you were already persuaded by what I said, but I guess I'm just saying more because I know you'll appreciate it. I've already got a lot of tactical ideas but we can just see what happens tomorrow morning.

Finally, since you are still willing to destroy SKA with me, let's just go ahead and do it. I think there's a 90% chance that we're wasting our time because Russia will lose everything, but there's obviously a chance that Russia will still have warsaw (or moscow too far that matter, I mean anything's possible). However, if I'm right about Italy and wrong about Turkey, then we'll be glad we blew up the fleet since we will need to immediately send all those Scandinavian units to the front line, but have to waste a second turn destroying SKA instead. Since you're willing to do it, I'll go ahead and do it.

whew

"I mean you get it, you were already persuaded by what I said, but I guess I'm just saying more because I know you'll appreciate it."

Spot on. I also appreciated that you appreciated my appreciation. And I bet you'll appreciate my appreciation.

By the way, Italy sent me a message a few minutes ago (my first message from Italy in a while) promising that Tyrolia will be moving on Austria, not Munich. Italy suggested that Turkey would probably be getting on the anti-Austrian action as well.

I had already made clear that I intend to support hold Munich no matter what, so I don't see what Italy would stand to gain by lying to me. So it looks like I/A/T will indeed be blinking first. I don't know whether this news makes support into Portugal more or less likely.

Sharing this with you just for the sake of sharing. I'm treating our currently agreed-on orders as set in stone. I feel good about them after mulling it all over and talking through it with you.

Secret Thoughts re: Italy #3

Sheesh. I got this message very late in the turn. I guess Italy is telling the truth probably, but at this point I don't have anything to say in response and would rather act like it came too late at night for me to notice.

My messages to Germany about thinking Italy was NOT going to support me to Portugal were honest....at the time I wrote them. Now I think Italy will support me to Portugal, but since I already got Germany to agree to what I wanted, and it's so late at night and near the end of the term, I'm not willing to revisit any of that.

Honestly, the slowness of Italy's response does deter me from wanting Italy as my ally.

Final Thoughts

After a long turn's hard work, I am making the moves I wanted to make the whole time.

Well, here we are back where I started basically. I got what I wanted. Germany agreed not to take any of my centers. Whew. Good gravy am I exhausted.

If Germany backstabs me, Germany could take Brest and Belgium (at risk of losing Munich), and I guess Germany theoretically could work with Russia somehow to kick me out of Norway. That would all be a disaster, but it just seems unlikely that Germany would attempt such a turn. I'm giving a lot of weight to Germany's words, but I also think Germany would risk a lot and not necessarily profit very much by attacking me.

I think Germany and I will destroy that Russian fleet (which is something I want to happen) and I've got Germany's permission to have my fleet in Skagerrak (useful to set up a backstab!).

I'm hoping Italy will support me into Portugal. I think it is more likely that not that Italy will support me to Portugal (>50% chance), but I'm still not sure.

This turn was absolutely mentally exhausting. I was sending messages from morning until night, and thinking hard about them almost every time. I really hope all this effort pays off. If not, oh well. I did what I could.

Online Diplomacy Championship R1 Autumn 190357 min read