The Opening Moves Went My Way!

This is a great start for England!

First of all, I want to pat myself on the back. Each player that I tried to influence (Germany, France, Italy, Turkey, and to a lesser extent Russia) made moves consistent with how I tried to influence them.

Germany all-out attacked France as promised, which is what I encouraged him to do (specifically, to move to Burgundy).
France fell for the trap laid by me and Germany. My move into English Channel succeeded and so did Germany's move into Burgundy. France even moved into Piedmont (likely anticipating an Italian move there and expecting to bounce), which horribly compromises France's defense.
Italy did not attack Austria.
Turkey attacked Russia.
Russia did not make a northern opening.

I am not going to pretend that the other players are my puppets. But when every player I tried to influence made moves that are consistent with how I encouraged them to move, I think I deserve some credit for influencing the overall board to my benefit.

A Lesson From Your Bored Brother

If you learn anything from reading my journal, learn this lesson: in Press Diplomacy, first decide your strategic goals and consider your tactical options, then send messages to the other players to help you accomplish those goals.

Over the last couple of years, I have coached many players (and I am doing so presently). Something that comes up again and again is "What should I be saying to X player?" I inevitably reply with my own question: "What do you want that player to do?" Once you have a goal in mind, it is relatively straightforward to figure out what you should say to another player.

If you start every turn by messaging all the players and only form an opinion of what you want to accomplish afterwards, you will have three problems:

You won't know what to say because you aren't trying to accomplish anything in particular;
Any messages will necessarily be aimless because you do not have a goal in mind; and
You will succumb to the manipulations of the other players, because your strategy is necessarily reactive instead of proactive.

How do you decide what you want? You have to "read the board!"

Because of my extensive experience with Gunboat Diplomacy, I have a well-developed ability to understand what is happening (and could happen) just from looking at the board. Most players call that "reading the board." I have been complimented by experienced, talented players for my ability to read the board and to read it quickly. To learn more, I recommend reading my 2017 Gunboat Journal.

I already explained my strategic goals in my last entry (destroy France, ally Germany, and maybe keep open the possibility of allying Russia without intending to do so unless necessary). Now let's consider the my tactical choices.

My Tactical Options

This turn, I have a lot of options. I could convoy my army to Norway or to Belgium (either of which seems like a decent move). I could also move English Channel to Belgium, Brest, or Mid-Atlantic Ocean (all of which have their advantages). That's a good position for me to be in.

Convoying my army to Norway has many advantages:
1. The convoy is guaranteed to succeed (there is no Russian unit in place to block the convoy), which is important because it is a small disaster if England can't convoy the starting army off of Great Britain.
2. An army in Norway can subsequently move to Finland, which is a powerful province bordering 3 supply centers. A fleet cannot make such a move.
3. In the long run, it is very important for England to conquer St. Petersburg with an army. Only an army can make follow-up attacks on Moscow; a fleet in St. Petersburg is at a dead end.
On the other hand, it's not that important for me to immediately take Norway when Germany seems so friendly and I have an opportunity to convoy my army elsewhere. It's very easy to come back for Norway in 1902 if my other moves go well. In this game in particular, Russia got attacked by Turkey immediately and may not have the capacity to put up a fight for Norway in 1902.
Normally, I try to avoid convoying to Belgium with England in 1901. That's because the army there gets in the way of any war between France and Germany (France and Germany pretty much have to be at war if England is going to have a good game). But for this match, I am seriously considering trying to convoy to Belgium.
- First of all, I think the convoy is fairly likely to work. I can support myself with English Channel if I want to, or ask for German support. Because of that, I think France (and Germany for that matter) are unlikely to block me from convoying to Belgium (France will likely defend Brest or Paris using Picardy, since the chance of taking Belgium is essentially nil for France).
- Second, I think that if I don't convoy to Norway, I could get Russia on my side vs. Germany. That could be very important if Germany is disloyal to me during the next few turns.
- Third, an army in Belgium will give me more say about what happens to France's centers over the next few turns.
- Fourth, if opportunity knocks and I have some incredible chance to backstab Germany in 1902 or 1903 after France has been crushed (say, if Italy helps me attack France and Russia starts a fight with Germany), having an army in Belgium would make such a backstab far more effective.
  - I highly doubt that I will have a good backstab opportunity vs. Germany. However, you never really know what will happen, so it's good to keep an open mind. Opportunism is essential to achieving a solo win.
Because France's defenses are so low right now, I am tempting to just lunge for Brest with English Channel. The possibility of getting 2 builds is tempting.
- If I decide to do this, I need to see if I can make one more effort to manipulate France. Since I lied through my teeth last turn, France will probably not trust me. HOWEVER, even if France does not trust me, I can still manipulate France through my messages (e.g., I could use reverse psychology and outright tell France what I'm going to do, but France might think it is a lie and react incorrectly) or by manipulating other players into passing false messages to France (e.g., I could tell Russia, Turkey, or Austria that I am moving to Mid-Atlantic Ocean and hope that they leak that false info to France).
Supporting my army into Belgium seems unnecessary, since my mere ability to do so should deter France from moving to Belgium -- especially if I somehow cause France to believe that I am supporting a convoy into Belgium.
Moving to Mid-Atlantic Ocean is usually a pretty strong move for England in 1901. France would have to use 2 fleets to chase my fleet back out, and MAO is a very strong sea province that borders all the supply centers I hope to conquer from France.
- There are really cool follow-up moves available to England after taking Mid-Atlantic Ocean in 1901. For example, I could build a fleet in London, move that to English Channel, and then double-convoy my army into Gascony (a province which borders all French home centers and Spain). If England can pull that off, France will be completely defeated and England will get most of spoils of France's defeat.

One scenario occurs to me, though, that is hard to disregard: If I convoy to Belgium and attack Brest with English Channel, and meanwhile Germany moves Burgundy to Paris, France cannot possibly get a build in 1901. Even if France takes Portugal with Mid-Atlantic Ocean, France cannot possibly also cover all of those home centers; France will lose either Brest or Paris, or else forgo taking any neutral centers.

As England, the idea of just blowing France out of the water like this is extremely tempting. France is my most natural enemy. Furthermore, I also lied through my teeth to France on the first turn, which means I will likely never recover France's trust (or be able to fully trust France myself). Finishing off a player who I likely to be bitter towards me is something I find advantageous (half-dead players who hate you might wreck your game).
If France gets zero builds, there is a good chance that France's defense will collapse completely before Italy can come over and take my kill. I really want Brest, Portugal, and Spain to myself, and don't want to share any of that with Italy. If France regains footing and gets a build this turn, I might have to cooperate with Italy to dig France out of Iberia (and thus have to horse-trade Spain to Italy, or something like that).
There is a danger: Germany might end up with triple builds while I end up with zero. If France bounces my convoy out of Belgium, and Germany walks into Paris, Holland, and Denmark, Germany will have 6 centers while I remain at 3 (and am stuck with my army on Great Britain).
- In such a situation, the temptation for Germany to betray me would be huge. Germany could build 1 or even 2 fleets and quickly break through Sweden and then Norway. There would be no way that any other power would come to my defense, and Germany might emerge completely dominant in the north. Even though I think it would be difficult for Germany to get a solo win in that scenario (attacking England early makes a solo win very difficult), Germany might come after me early just to acquire as many centers as possible. This is an existential threat to me.
- Even if Germany doesn't betray me per se, Germany might pressure me into a terrible bargain with the threat of an attack (e.g., by our previous agreement I should expect Germany to build 3 armies, but maybe Germany will start insisting on building at least one fleet "to fight Russia" that could later be used against me, and there's really nothing I can do to stop it).
- If I go with this plan, I need to minimize the danger. That means figuring out how to bait France into not bouncing me at Belgium, and to do my utmost to persuade Germany to build 3 armies if Germany takes 3 centers.

Messages with Germany #1

WOW. What an EXCELLENT opening turn! Looking forward to hashing out this next turn with you. I don't think this one could have gone much better.

Bravo! Bravo! Bravissimo!

Not only did we successfully dupe France, but France antagonized Italy and got out of position with that Piedmont army. I also think Turkey trying to attack Russia first will work out in our favor.

I anticipate that France will cover Marseilles with Piedmont, Brest with Picardy, and take Portugal with MAO. That’s just intuition, not anything France told me. Lunging straight for Paris could work out for you.

Obviously I could convoy to Norway unopposed. That can be a strong move because an army can follow up to Finland. On the other hand, France is I’m very bad shape this turn and might not even get 1 build, so piling everything on France could be good (we can clean up Russia at a later time in my opinion, since Russia has to deal with Turkey for now). Decisions, decisions!

Right now, I’m thinking that if we maximize the chances that France gets zero builds, France will crumble over the following 2 years very easily. So it seems less important to me to block MAO, when if I commit additional fleet builds I can easily take MAO by force if France cannot build a second fleet.

If we move burgundy to Paris and I cove Belgium, France can only possibly get a build by moving Picardy to Paris and MAO to Portugal. If I cover Belgium AND lunge for Brest while you move on Paris, France cannot possibly get a build.

I realize that moveset risks my convoy failing, and that it means not taking Norway for a year. However, my trust in our alliance is sky-high right now because we kept all our promises on the first turn with nothing to go on but our word. Therefore, I trust you to block Russia out of Swede and let me take a crack at belgium. we can mop up those Scandinavian centers in 1902-03 (I also don’t think Russia will get any builds due to the Turkish attack).

With these facts in mind (that Russia seems extremely weak and we can block Russia easily for now; that we can guarantee France makes no builds if we choose to do so), the value of shutting down France seems very good to me vs. the possible risk of Russia being left alone.

Furthermore, there is a good chance that either I will end up with 2 builds or that you will end up with 3. If I get 2 fleet builds, I can commit 1 or 2 to taking down Russia next year, and if you get 3 armies you could easily send 2 of the immediately after Warsaw.

Let me know your thoughts on this.

I was thinking about how to handle this turn while lying in bed before going to sleep (had a late night), and I reached the same conclusion as you that the best move would likely be to guarantee France does not get a build. I was planning to pitch exactly the move set you proposed, but with reassurances that I understand if you either (1) want to be conservative and guarantee at least one build for yourself by moving to Norway and/or (2) have me support Yorkshire into Belgium. I did, I believe, promise to support you into Belgium if Munich was not threatened.

But, to my delight, you’re already on board with hitting Brest and Belgium while I make a mad dash for Paris. I am ordering the following:

F-Den to Swe
A Kiel to Swe [Obviously Germany means Denmark]
A Bur to Par

And to echo your thoughts, the fact that France moved to Piedmont is just icing on the cake, AND, I might add, pretty inexplicable to me. I suppose France may have expected to bounce.

I haven’t yet decided, but I might warn Russia about the bounce. He’ll be angry, of course, but maybe marginally less angry than if it were a complete surprise.

And to FURTHER echo your thoughts, I am struggling to think of an alliance in which I was more immediately confident. Moreover, we’ll see how the rest of the game goes, but so far this is very likely the most impressive anti-French opening I have ever seen.

A big part of that is thanks to France’s move to Piedmont, of course. I don’t know if I’ll ever replicate an opening board like this.

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #1

To start, I think it was proper for Germany to begin the turn with celebratory message (and of course, I reciprocated in accordance with my mirroring strategy). In my experience, complimenting a player for clever or powerful moves goes a long way in cementing the feeling of goodwill that is the foundation of a good alliance.

Last turn, Germany opened up our communications by going over detailed plans. Therefore, I found it appropriate to start the second turn with the same. Based on my analysis, I think the strongest possible moveset for our alliance would be to block France from getting even 1 build. I went over my thought process with Germany to make my analysis seem as sincere and persuasive as possible.

As it turns out, Germany had apparently developed the same plan. I believe it. I have assessed Germany as an experienced player like me, so it makes sense that Germany would read the board the same way I do.

And as far as my press to Germany goes, the messages are truthful and forthright. It's hard to think of what I might gain by deceiving Germany.

Messages with Germany #2

I’ve told Russia that I will be bouncing him. I’ve also apologized to the Italian for not being more direct, explained that I did not expect that move to Piedmont at all, and extended an invitation to join in our raiding and pillaging.

Well, if there were any doubt as to the future health of our alliance, it may reassure you to know that I don’t think I can ever expect Russia not to stab me the first moment an opportunity presents itself. He is vocally incensed that I will be bouncing him.

I play a game of full press Diplomacy only a few times per year, but maybe I would play more often if the players sent me press that was as friendly, thoughtful, and interesting as yours.

Not only that, it seems as if our thoughts this game are completely aligned as if by magic. Incredible!

I don't think it's possible to have a better anti-French opening as Germany and England, and I see no reason to take our feet off the gas. Based on our conversations and your agreement, I want to lock in my moves as:
English Channel to Brest
Yorkshire to Belgium, convoyed by North Sea

But before I do so, I want just a little reassurance. Obviously, if I manage to get 2 builds, I'll make 2 fleets. But it is possible that I'll get bounced out of both Belgium and Brest, which will leave me with no builds and my army stranded on Great Britain. At the same time, you would get 3 builds (Paris, Holland, and Denmark). I want your assurances that if that comes to pass, you will build 3 armies (even if that might slow down our fight against Russia a little). Can you make that promise to me?
If you think you'd rather make a second fleet if you get 3 builds this turn, that's not my preference but it is acceptable to me. If that is the case, then I want to make a move this turn that guarantees that my convoy works and I get a build for myself too.

Either way is acceptable to me; I just want to have a clear understanding of this contingency. A teacher once told me "clear understandings lead to long relationships." I think we have such a relationship, and I want to solidfy that.

Meanwhile, I think you were wise to warn Russia about the bounce. Most players prefer a warning to a flat-out lie. It's a darn shame that Russia reacted so poorly to your effort to at least tell the truth. Oh well. In all liklihood it doesn't matter what Russia thinks of you; we can easukt destroy Russia as soon as France is finished off.

Italy said that he would attack France with us. I advise Italy to make these moves:
Apulia to Venice (guards the center)
Tuscany to Piedmont (might work if France guard Marseilles)
Ionian Sea to Tunis (attack Spain in 1902)

Let me know if you have any ideas about what else we should accomplish with our press!

I’ll say first that I agree 100% on the importance/value of clarity in our communications, and I appreciate you charting out exactly what actions we will fake contingent upon different scenarios coming to pass.

I’ll say second that I intend to stick to our initial agreement for me to refrain from fleet building and for you to refrain from army building, barring exceptional circumstances; and I don’t consider the scenario you’ve laid out to justify my building a fleet.

I won’t build any fleets, whether I gain three centers or two centers (if I gain only one center it would have to be due to an English incursion on Holland, so I’ll stop short of committing to no fleets in that case!).

We will take*** contingent upon...

As of now I’m confident Russia can be contained without any fleet builds from me. Hopefully ever.

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #2

Of course, I am continuing to shower Germany with complimentary, pleasant, excited messages. It seems to be working and I can think of no reason to stop.

After Germany agreed in principal to the attack plan, I decided to ask for assurances that Germany will not build another fleet.

I very much do not want Germany building a second fleet, but I can't STOP Germany from doing so. Instead of demanding that Germany not build a second fleet, I have tried to induce Germany to promise not to do so. My request for assurances is sincere and reasonable. If Germany feels like the promise was something given voluntarily (as opposed to something coerced or extracted under duress), I think Germany will be far more likely to honor such a promise; such is how the human mind works.

Germany's assurances seem sincere to me; Germany seems to genuinely want to work with me and told me what I need to hear.

As far as bouncing Russia goes, it probably doesn't matter whether Germany warns Russia or not. I decided to compliment/reassure Germany just to be friendly. Most Russian players will move to Sweden in Autumn 1901 regardless of what Germany says about a bounce. It's possible that Russia could decide to retaliate by moving to Baltic Sea, but that's pretty uncommon because 1) it leaves St. Petersburg defenseless; 2) dooms the relationship between Germany and Russia; 3) Germany can still counter that move with a fleet build; and 4) there's always some hope Germany won't move Denmark to Sweden.

I informed Germany about my advice to Italy just to enhance my credibility. There is nothing at all I can think of that could hurt me if Germany shares that information. I told Germany to show that I am actively messaging other players and trying to effectuate our strategy. I also want Germany to feel that I have a good relationship with the other powers, which should discourage Germany from taking me for granted.

Exchange with Russia

Germany tells me you told him to bounce Sweden?

I can help you later. Germany bounces Sweden, and I will mess him up big time.

I thought we had a deal?

Denmark will be empty.

Sorry, I had a very busy day today. I started drafting some messages to you and I didn’t get finished. I am not ignoring you intentionally. I want to keep up our good relationship. I am considering not moving to Norway at all. I will reply in detail soon.

Okay -- sorry for the delay. Thank you for your patience.

1) I am aware that Germany intends to bounce you out of Sweden, but it's not something I specifically told Germany to do. Germany offered to block you out of Sweden as part of our agreement to attack France. After Germany and I showed our true intention to attack France, we agreed that it would be better if I convoyed my army to Belgium (for fighting France) than to Norway (which would be for fighting you, Russia). However, I would not agree to give up Norway (which I can take for FREE right now if I want to) if it meant that Germany lets your fleet into Sweden (because then you would most likely subsequently take Norway too and shut me out of Scandinavia completely). I realize that's not what you want to happen (that you want control of Sweden in 1901). I'm sorry that it's not working out as Germany promised to you last turn. I'm sure if I were in your position, I would feel exactly the way that you do right now. I just wanted to draw your attention to the silver lining that I am not going to convoy to Norway (as I normally would) as a result of this, and I don't have any intention to attack you.

2) I am not interested in attacking Germany this turn (even if Denmark will be empty), since I want Germany's help in finishing off France (my main goal right now). So other than attacking Germany this turn, is there something I can do for you? I am willing to attack Germany together with you in 1902 or 1903 once France is finished off.

Convince him to let me in Swe. It's in your interest. I will owe you.

You can't have it all ways. If you go with a solid EG, the I have to play for a RIA or even ART, to cointer it. Either way, you end up on the wrong side. ER gives you flexibility.

I hear what you're saying about need to make firm allies -- I really understand that. So let's talk about how we can work together.

I think you're asking a lot from me (persuade Germany to let you into Sweden, something tangibly contrary to my interests this turn and also not really within my control) in return for something vague ("ER" and an "IOU"). In my experience, favors are rarely repaid in a Diplomacy game.

I'm interesting in discussing this further if you want to have a concrete conversation, but to be perfectly frank I don't feel intimidated by your threat to ally some combination of Austria, Italy, and Turkey. Those powers are my natural allies and I would like it if you left them alone.

Secret Thoughts re: Russia

Oof, I don't think I accomplished much in my press with Russia here. At the outset, Russia gives me the impression of being an inexperienced player. The messages are short, difficult to understand, and dart from topic to topic. Russia also seems not to have a clear goal with our communications, mixing together questions, demands, threats, etc.

Obviously, Russia still wants Germany to allow that Gulf of Bothnia fleet into Sweden (so that Russia can get a build). Russia is also upset that Germany previously promised to let Russia take Sweden, and then later stated an intention to bounce Russia out. I genuinely understand Russia's frustration, but I think Russia is going about solving this problem in the wrong way.

Since Russia sent me antagonistic threats because Germany wants to bounce in Sweden, I now completely believe Germany's statements that Russia's press has greatly damaged Germany's willingness to work with Russia. My goodness...

I decided to violate my strategy of "mirroring" and send some more elaborate messages to Russia, because Russia's short points refer to complicated concepts that I cannot meaningfully respond to with a short retort. I kind of think my complicated press will not persuade Russia... oh well.

Russia comes across to me as desperate, which makes Russia's messages all the less trustworthy. Probably Russia has tried to make alliances with Turkey or Austria and really neglected any effort to build a real relationship with Germany and is facing the consequences. Or for all I know, Austria and Turkey are about to blow Russia away too.

Early-game threats -- especially threats that are vague or not realistic to carry out -- make me raise my eyebrows at another player, but do not intimidate me. In fact, I'll go as far as to say that Russia's threats to me have backfired; I now consider Russia both volatile and weak, which make me want to eliminate Russia myself if I can:

Russia is always a tempting target for England, especially if piloted by a weak player.
And if Russia is annoying other players too, they are more likely to cooperate with (or at least tolerate) my attacks.
Finally, eliminating such a player can be wise so that nothing crazy happens in endgame (like accidentally or intentionally throwing the game to another power).

Despite all that, I'm still trying my best to maintain rapport with Russia.

Messages with France

Hey there. That's a very tough situation and you must be feeling disappointed to have been lied to so thoroughly by several players. I'm sure I'd be feeling that way if I were in your position.

Not that I expect anything, but if you want to try to negotiate with me around your difficult position, I am willing to hear it out. I'm not married to Germany, and Germany will likely be the biggest threat to me after this turn or the next, so you and I might be able to make a deal. I thought it was worth reaching out, anyways.

Secret Thoughts re: France

First, I've done my best to lay the charm on France, even in this tense situation. I am trying to show that it's nothing personal, that I empathize with France's situation, and that there may be some hope. I don't really expect any of this to work, but I don't see how it could hurt.

My offer to come to terms is mostly insincere. I suppose it's possible that France could offer me something that would make me want to switch sides, but right now I can't really think of what that would be (and I doubt France would offer me anything outrageous). However, if France feels desperate and I seem easier to negotiate with than Germany or Italy, perhaps France might give me a hint about next turn's moves. If so, I could use that to make my decision on how best to attack France.

Ultimately, my message received no response. I get the impression that France gave up after the first turn went poorly. If so, that's a shame; I expect more from tournament play.

Messages with Italy

France looks like he's doomed

Similarly, I have no idea what is France planning. The Germans seem to want France out, though

Yes. Terrible opening situation for France.

Since Turkey attacked Russia, France antagonized you, and Germany and I are attacking France, maybe you an dogpile France in 1902?

Exactly what I'm thinking.

Excellent!!

This is just a suggestion and I won’t hold it against you if you don’t take it:

Move Ionian Sea to Tunis, Apulia to Venice (to block France), and Tuscany to Piedmont (in case France moves back to Marseilles).

I think that completely protects you and gives you the best ability to attack France in 1902.

I've planned a Venice bounce, but that's fine too 🙂

Let's dogpile France!

Roger that!

Messages with Austria

Hey for what’s it’s worth, I sent messages to Italy about not attacking you and to Turkey about attacking Russia, and that seems to have worked. Just wanted you to know I kept my promise on that.

Thanks, and what an opening in the West! I don't think I've ever seen a no-build France!

You're very welcome, and thank you as well. I also cannot recall ever playing a game where France might be shut out of getting a build. I am not sure if I'm actually going to go through with it though, since shutting down France risks Germany getting 3 builds while I get zero...

I agree, hit Bel with support and as long as Germany agrees to bounce Sweden, you'll et Norway next year. France still ahs to choose whether to cover Brest or not so still might get blanked.

Secret Thoughts re: Austria

I am simply trying to keep on good terms with Austria in case I see an opportunity to work together later on. I think a common mistake for novice diplomacy players is to neglect distant powers (in terms of press). This is a mistake, because if all goes well and you make a lot of gains, you will later find yourself needing to work together with those distant powers. If you have taken the time to build rapport with them, that's advantageous in the middle and endgame.

It's true that I encouraged Italy not to attack Austria and Turkey to attack Russia. Saying so probably makes Austria feel good. Austria sent me a compliment about shutting down France, and some tactical advice about supporting myself into Belgium. I think Austria is, like me, making an effort to build up some rapport for later on. I like it!

One last thing: this isn't really a thought regarding Austria, but Austria's comments of never seeing a "no build France" reminded me of a press game I played back in 2016 where I was England allied to France and we tricked Germany so badly at the beginning that Germany never got even 1 build. So in my view, I have a precedent for doing this sort of thing when I play as England.

Messages with Turkey #1

Well, Russia has threatened war over Armenia. Maybe there's a chance for you in this?

Very interesting start, especially from France. Both he and Russia could end up with no builds at all in 1901 but I think Russia will get at least one as I doubt Germany will block his entry into Sweden; it is in Germany's own interest to have a strong Russia around who is not an immediate threat to him as this enables Russia to keep me and Austria busy in the north or force you to commit two units to the north (or both).

I consider this a pretty favorable start for me, and for you too.

Germany promised Russia that he would let Russia into Sweden... but Germany also promised ME that he would not. I think there is at least a decent chance (>50%) that Germany will block Russia out of Sweden.

If you can get cooperation from Austria, it’s definitely a realistic possibility that Russia gets no builds at all in 1901. Wouldn’t that be something?

I am also scheming on how to keep France from getting any builds, if possible.

Follow-up message: Germany informed me that Russia knows that there will be a bounce in Sweden and that this angered Russia, and Russia told me the same thing. So I think it is pretty likely that Russia will not take Sweden, and might get no builds at all if you play your moves right.

You seem keen on Russia not having any builds. He cannot easily deploy any more units in the south so I think I understand where you're coming from as he would probably send any new units north to create contention for Norway rather than angering Germany. I am facing a complicated choice if I want to fight Russia and the simple choice is not to fight him at all. That may not be the best choice, though.

Yes, you understand me exactly. I am considering supporting myself into Belgium instead of Norway, which will leave Norway open for next year while I work to finish off France. You're exactly right that I predict that any Russian build will be in the north to contest Norway. I am also a little worried about Russia and Germany coming to terms in such a scenario.

For what it's worth, Italy has stated to me an intention to attack France. Austria has said very little to me. It's not much but maybe it can help you with your decision.

If I were in your position, the main question in my mind would be whether Austria and Russia are allied. If so, then there's nothing to lose by fighting hard against Russia right from the start (indeed, Russia might give up if Austria looms large). If Austria and Russia are going to fight, then you probably have your choice of ally.

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey #1

The Turkish player is pretty canny. Not only are Turkey's messages detailed and perceptive, Turkey also has the sense to maintain contact with England (Turkey's natural ally). Taken together, I think Turkey is an experienced player. This bodes well for me because we are natural allies.

If somehow Austria and Turkey could work together to deny Russia even 1 build, that would be very good for me. So I decided to be honest, share information with Turkey, and make Turkey feel comfortable with me and my advice.

As it turns out, Turkey is maybe not so keen on listening to all my advice -- or at least, Turkey is making a show of being a tad skeptical. It makes me feel good about the Turkish player that Turkey was willing to frankly (but respectfully) tease apart my intentions in a response message. To me, that means Turkey is trying to show me that I shouldn't take anything for granted or underestimate that player's abilities, but at the same time maintain a friendly conversation. I think that's a sound diplomatic strategy, which enhances my respect for Turkey and increases my willingness to work with (rather than against) Turkey.

I decided to just be completely honest and admit to my intentions. There's nothing to be gained from trying to lie about what I'm thinking, but I could alienate Turkey if try to cover up what I'm thinking. I also offered some (probably) useless tidbits of information, but that's all I have to offer. My intel-sharing is sincere; I really do want to help Turkey make the right decisions if possible.

Messages with Turkey #2

An option for you could be to try for both Belgium and Holland. Germany has already angered France (and so have you perhaps) and if Germany blocks Sweden then all of a sudden Germany might be facing pressure from three different directions.

Italy is still looking for a purpose in life, I think. His move to Tuscany is not congruent with any plans, whether this is an attack on France, Austria or something else entirely. Unless he is brave he has lost tempo and by that I mean that the safe option is to move to Venice and the brave option is to move to Piedmont and trust that France tries to defend Marseilles. When I think about it I am sure that someone whispered some sweet words in those gullible French ears as it is rare to see France give up both the Channel and Burgundy in S01.

There are still a few options open in the Balkans but soon it will be decision time.

Secret Thoughts re: Turkey #2

Turkey's effort to persuade me to attack Germany is silly and I would never fall for this. If I were to convoy to Holland, that convoy would fail. Even if I wanted to attack Germany (I don't), failing to convoy my army out of Great Britain is far too high a price to pay to deny Germany a build. I consider this advice from Turkey to be frivolous and insincere.

Turkey correctly understands that Germany and I tricked France, but I am not completely sure why Turkey is bringing that up. Maybe to make me feel like Turkey will not be so easily manipulated as France was?

Turkey has no duty to tell me anything and I haven't asked for promises from Turkey (I only gave advice), so its a little weird to me that Turkey is making a show of playing coy.

I decided to not respond to this message, since I didn't have anything nice or helpful to say about all this.

Messages with Germany #3

Okay - excellent. One last thing re: Russia -- based on Russia's messages to me and the extent of Russia's expressed anger, I think there's a chance Russia will move to Baltic Sea instead of Sweden this turn. Are you prepared to stick with army builds even if that happens? I think I can come to your rescue with just 1 of my fleets and make it work, but since we're talking about contingencies I wanted to float that one to you too.

Yeah I was thinking Russia might pull something wacky like that. A small part of me is tempted not to move to Sweden and cackle as he moves into Baltic Sea for seemingly no reason (don't worry, I won't do that).

I don't think Russia moving to Baltic will affect me all that much. I trust you enough that I would leave Holland completely vulnerable to cover Kiel, for example, if I absolutely had to. Really, the true danger to me would arise from a build in Warsaw and a suicidal land assault on my eastern front. In which case I'd in fact prefer armies to fleets.

If Russia moves to Baltic, I'll still stick to armies. I expect I'll just move back to Denmark, and if he does move into Sweden, well, that's not really the end of the world. Either you or I could support the other to kick him back out. And if he used the Baltic fleet to try to support an army into Berlin, my 2 to 3 army builds ought to be adequate to stalemate him.

Russia's mania does make me all the more eager to remove France swiftly and efficiently. I've heard some unhappy stories about Germany fighting wars on two fronts.

My friend, we think SO much alike. I also recommend just moving to Sweden and hoping for the best -- BUT! -- I did think about how badass it would be to correctly guess to block Russia at Baltic Sea. Of course, the risk is just...way too much; I would never have the guts to do that myself. Failing to capture a center and letting Russia have Sweden would be a very heavy setback (as I am sure you considered already). I agree with you that you could pretty easily fight off Russia even if Russia moved to Baltic.

Today I also got my share of Russia's "mania" as you put it. All sorts of vague promises came across in Russia's messages if I somehow persuaded you to put Russia's fleet into Sweden, and outrageous threats (AIR and RAT alliances! as if) if I did not.

I told Russia that Germany is not my puppet and that I need serious messages if we're going to keep talking to each other.

It's amazing, isn't it, how much this game forces you to think like the leadership of the actual great powers from the era? I realize that there's not THAT much analogy in the gameplay, but very general things how you feel like you were born encircled when you play Germany, or that your size does not really protect you if you are Russia.

I am fairly sure that I want to convoy to Belgium, and I just have to make up my mind about whether I should support myself there or also try to take Brest. That's all that's left on my mind this turn really.

I ended up just lying to Russia and telling him, Okay sure I won't bounce you in Sweden. It's clear to me at this point that honesty was a futile strategy with Russia anyway, so maybe this reduces the chances of a move to Baltic Sea by 5%

I should add that I continue to believe the move set you originally proposed whereby we guarantee 100% that France gets no builds strikes me as the most prudent, but I acknowledge that the risk mitigation calculation is a little different for me with my guaranteed builds.

Yes, I think you are right, but you also understand that my feeling about the matter has to be different.

Have you heard a word from France? I sent France some messages to try to get a feel for the situation, but never heard back.

Sent a few messages basically just apologizing, indicating that I intend to press forward with the attack but that I never rule out reconciliation. Got a “gee thanks” and that’s it.

France might be giving up then...sheesh. I offered to change alliances (just to see if I could get a response) and got nothing.

I’d expect more than that in tournament play, but I can understand if France feels the situation is beyond salvageable.

Secret Thoughts re: Germany #3

Germany's earlier revelation of Russia's angry response (I believe Germany that this happened) felt like an opportunity for me, but I didn't really get anywhere with Russia. So instead, I decided to use Russia's "mania" to draw Germany closer to me.

I hope I didn't push it too hard with my request for assurances about Germany's builds and diminish Germany's enthusiasm for our alliance, so to offset that I included more compliments and banter at the end.

I hoped Germany might have figured something out that would allow me to out-guess France, but to no avail. I believe Germany that France never said anything useful.

Final Thoughts

In all honesty, I'm nervous about pulling the trigger on this moveset. If France moves that fleet to Brest and that army to Belgium, then France will go down to just 2 units and I'll get zero builds and have my army stranded on Great Britain. If that scenario comes to pass, will Germany really be able to resist the temptation to build some fleets and come after me? France would be utterly disabled and unable to oppose Germany or assist me, and I would have almost nothing to fight Germany with. Germany is a delightful player to be sure, and Germany did reassure me, but I don't really know what will happen. The temptation to betray me would be enormous because there would likely be no consequences to Germany.

If that comes to pass, then I'll have to point to THIS turn as the reason I suffered a loss or another poor result. I'll probably regret not supporting myself to Belgium.

Nevertheless, it is not possible to win a game of Diplomacy without taking some risks. Here, I think the risk is worth it:

My unsupported convoy is likely to work. I don't think for a second that Germany will bounce me at Belgium; I completely believe Germany that Burgundy will move to Paris. In my mind, the only way my convoy will fail is if France moves Picardy to Belgium. I think France is very unlikely to make such a move. It is really obvious that I could support my own convoy into Belgium (or Germany could support me), and indeed in my press I hinted to other powers that I have been considering such a move (hoping that they might leak this to France so that France does not move to Belgium). I bet that France thinks moving to Belgium is likely to accomplish nothing while also leaving Paris and/or Brest up for grabs. By contrast, France can ensure that Paris and/or Brest are protected because no enemy can make supported attacks on those positions; using Picardy to guard Paris or Brest is probably the better move for France by far.
Shutting France out of getting even 1 build is really good. I can't deny how valuable it might be for England to destroy France early.
There's a chance I might get 2 builds. If France covers Paris with Picardy and uses the Mid-Atlantic Ocean fleet to take Portugal, then I will get 2 builds. I don't think this is very likely, but it is possible and would be really awesome if that happened. I have to attach some value to this possibility.
My credibility with Germany will be very high after this turn. Germany will see that I was willing to take a big risk in order to effectuate a plan that we formulated together. That will make me seem like a loyal and dependable ally. Most people feel some psychological pressure to reciprocate that kind of behavior, and the German player strikes me as that kind of person. I want to establish this credibility with Germany early on, because I want Germany to feel the pressure to show reciprocal trust during mid-game. Let me explain. If I am to solo win this match, I will like have to get two things from Germany diplomatically:
- Make Germany comfortable with my crossing past "the stalemate line" (that is, my taking Moscow or Tunis).
- Create a turn where Germany opens up several supply centers in such a way that I can steal them all at once.
So although the opportunity to decisively backstab Germany is far from guaranteed, it is far more likely to occur if I lay the groundwork now of earning Germany's trust.

Ultimately, I am willing to risk a lot for the eventual shot at a solo win. I would like to win the tournament, which means I need to make it into the second round. To me, it's worth risking a total loss (no place in the draw this game) in order to increase my chances at a solo win. A solo win in this match would likely ensure my advancement to the second round of the tournament; I can't say the same about a draw.

Online Diplomacy Championship R1 Autumn 190141 min read