Spring 1901 – The Adventure Begins

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The starting board, as depicted by webDiplomacy.net

Developments: I am assigned Germany^[1]I forgot to note this when I started the journal, but this match is a hidden-draw-votes game. Hidden draw votes facilitate smaller draws and solo-win attempts.

If I ranked my gunboat preferences in order, Germany probably comes in the middle (Italy is my favorite, followed by France, Turkey, Germany, England, Russia, Austria). I believe I have a decent track record with Germany, but sometimes I get blown away early on and that almost never happens with my favorite three powers.^[2]In the time since I wrote this journal, I have enjoyed playing Germany much more often. I think this is because in high-level games, it is far less common for England, Italy, and/or Russia to attack Germany in 1901 (probably because that usually results in the attacking power and  Germany … Continue reading 

Strategic thoughts: I consider my alliance options

As far as the other northern powers go (England, France, Russia), England is my preferred ally.^[3]England is a great ally for Germany because you have two mutual enemies (France and Russia) and when you ally England, you (Germany) have a pretty good chance of taking important, difficult-to-reach centers such as Marseilles, Moscow and Sevastopol while still allied to England. Then, if the … Continue reading ^[4]My opinion about England being the best ally is pretty entertaining to review after the game ended, since England was my first (and only) enemy for a while, and also the player first eliminated (and he was eliminated mostly by me). I do think England is the best ally for Germany, but if … Continue reading As Germany, I want to see England attack France as soon as possible.

If either France or England opens to English Channel, it will mean war between them. If England takes the channel, then I will probably be able to ally England against France and Russia. If France takes the channel, then I need to retard Russia from growing quickly in the north (a powerful Northern Russia would likely result in France and/or Russia turning on me if England goes down quickly). Therefore, regardless of who actually takes the channel, I will likely bounce Russia out of Sweden in Autumn 1901.

Russia is my second-most-preferred ally of the northern powers. If neither England nor France opens to English Channel, the worst scenario facing me is an England–France alliance, and the second-worst scenario is England foolishly putting all his weight north only to be easily backstabbed by France after Russia and I (Germany) put up a defense. Therefore, I might support Russia into Sweden in Autumn 1901, depending on how the rest of the board looks, to gain Russia’s alliance and give England someone else to fight for Scandinavia.^[5]Actually using a support-move order is not necessary for Russia to get take Sweden; all Germany has to do is simply allow Russia to move a fleet into Sweden. But the unnecessary support order helps communicate an intent to ally Russia.

I hope Russia does not open with Moscow to St. Petersburg. When Russia plays a northern game in 1901, I think what usually happens is a southern power (Turkey or Austria) will crush Russia in the south and Russia will try to cram himself into the draw by hiding out in St. Petersburg + maybe Norway/Sweden. That scenario shuts down a solo win plan by Germany^[6]Once Turkey or Austria invade Warsaw and Moscow, it is very difficult for Germany to ever take those centers, and at least one of them is almost always required for Germany to solo win. and probably results in a big draw.

France is my last pick for alliance. I consider France the strongest gunboat power for numerous reasons. Among them: France has a simple solo-win game plan of invading England, then attacking Germany once in full control of the English home centers, then mopping up any minimal Russian gains for 17 northern centers, meanwhile sneaking into Tunis at the best opportunity to reach 18. Because of this, allying France against England, especially at the start of the game, is too dangerous. I would ally France only if a situation develops that calls for such an alliance.

I consider Italy to be the best and most natural ally to Germany. Almost every progression path for a strong Italian game overlaps very little between Germany’s plan. Furthermore, a strong Italy can keep France honest (solo win is unlikely for France if France can never sneak into Tunis in mid-game) and Austria in check (Austria will likely never get strong enough to invade Munich and Berlin if Italy is powerful). Some additional thoughts on Italy:

• If there is some way I can communicate with Italy or coordinate a plan of attack with him, I will try to do it. This is difficult because, after all, this is a gunboat game.
  
• I hope Italy attacks France as soon as possible. That’s a gift, a GIFT, to Germany. I also really hope Italy does not attack Austria immediately, because that usually results in Russia getting too strong too early.
• In low-level pick-up games of Diplomacy, sometimes Italy will attempt to attack Germany at the beginning of the game. This is completely asinine and almost always results in both powers being eliminated rapidly.^[7]In every game I’ve played where Italy successfully took Munich in 1901, both powers lost. Since this is a high-level game, I think I can rule out a suicide attack from Italy.

Austria is an okay ally early on. Benevolent neutrality is probably the better way to describe it. I don’t want Austria to be smashed early because that almost always supercharges Russia and leads to Germany’s downfall. But in the long run, Austria is a problem and even a threat to Germany. In order to solo win, Germany almost always needs Warsaw and usually Moscow to reach 18 centers. If Austria plays a strong game and smashes Russia, a solo win becomes nearly impossible for Germany. If Austria becomes very strong and can potentially solo win, Austria will eventually come after Germany because Austria is counting on Munich, Berlin, or both to reach 18 centers.

Turkey is almost never directly a problem for Germany, but I think Turkey is not fairly described as a natural “ally” to Germany because the two powers only really share one mutual enemy (Russia) and can’t even really work together to bring down Russia. What I hope for, as Germany, is that Turkey locks horns with his neighbors for a long time with neither side accomplishing anything.^[8]Ideally, there will be a lategame breakthrough around the time I want to attempt a solo win.

The triple alliance I like to form as Germany are Germany/Italy/Austria and Germany/Italy/England.

Orders:

I select the standard German gunboat opening

• The fleet at Kiel move to Denmark.  I cannot overstate the value of being able to decide whether or not to allow Russia into Sweden in 1901 while still getting a guaranteed build. Any other opening with the fleet, in my opinion, is foolish.
• The army at Berlin move to Kiel.  When moving the fleet to Denmark, no other move makes sense for Berlin, because Germany must have a chance of picking up Holland in the Autumn move for the solid 2-build opening year. England will rarely waste a move blocking Germany from taking Holland, since that just incites war without gaining anything really for England (Germany would almost certainly try to ally Russia and/or France in 1902 if England blocked Germany from taking Holland).
• The army at Munich move to Ruhr. This unit is the only one I spend time thinking about for my opening move as Germany. I think there are several decent opening moves:
  • Move to Ruhr. This is the gold standard here. Opening to Ruhr gives Germany a say in Belgium, but Germany can also retreat back to cover Munich if things look dicey. There’s no harm in retreating to Munich (or getting bounced out), and the possibility of a 3-build opening is real (if small).
  • Move to Burgundy. This is a gamble.
    • If it works, there is a good chance of a 3-build opening, because Germany might be able to take Belgium, Paris, or Marseilles depending on how things shape up. A strong commitment to attacking France can cause England and/or Italy to follow your lead and dogpile France, which is an awesome development as France is the biggest threat on the board and simultaneously very difficult to attack.^[9]This is a gamble; If France responds by playing nice with England, England might ally France. This is kind of crazy for England in my opinion, but my experience tells me that, despite the danger, English players look for any excuse to attack Germany (for the easy centers).
    • However, if this fails you look like a loser – especially if France supports a move into Burgundy, which is common. You will have antagonized France while accomplishing nothing.
  • Move to Tyrolia. This is an odd move, but better than you might think.
    • Increasingly, I have favored a move into Tyrolia early on as Germany. In high-level games, Austria and Italy rarely move into Tyrolia in the first few moves because the players (correctly) estimate that they will both be crushed if they fight too early – so the move likely will work.
    • But more importantly: why do it? Well, it’s not for attacking Austria or Italy. The purpose is to get the army into Piedmont on the next move so that, on the THIRD move, you can move the army into Marseilles and make a substantial invasion of France very early on. See, normally Germany cannot, alone, invade France – it’s too easy for France to use Burgundy as a wall. But the army in Piedmont can cancel support-holds and eventually come through into Marseilles. Not only does this make the attack on France stronger, it makes it more likely that Germany will get more of the centers (Italy is likely kept out) and get those French home centers earlier than England (sometimes England takes a center or two before Germany ever breaks through Burgundy, which is a shame for Germany).^[10]The endgame of this match demonstrates the value of taking Marseilles early on as Germany: if you can get Marseilles, you are likely to hold it the rest of the game. But if Italy takes Marseilles, you will probably never be able to take it away from Italy. Since Marseilles is one of the … Continue reading
      • France may also misread your move south as something other than an eventual attack on France.
    • Finally, as an opening move, Germany also hedges against Italy making an all-out attack on Austria by bouncing any Italian move into Tyrolia. This is more useful than you might think, because if Austria is blasted away too early then Russia may emerge too strong for Germany to handle.
    • HOWEVER, with all this said, I think the move into Tyrolia is better in 1902 or later, that is, once the strategic situation is more clear.

• Decision? I’m boring and I’ll open to Ruhr. In my opinion, the time for huge gambles is not the opening move. As the game develops, there will come turns where I need to take risks, trust players, leave centers unguarded, etc. etc., but I can make those decisions in the context of knowing much more about the particular match I am in. I personally think the opening move is not the time for gambles because you know NOTHING about the strategic situation. Other players may think differently, but I tend to make the same openings that I consider best for each power, game after game.

Predictions: I predict standard openings for everyone else too

• I predict England will move his fleets into Norwegian Sea and North Sea, and move the army to Yorkshire. This isn’t what I want as Germany, and not what I consider the best opening for England, but is what I see the most often.^[11]I think the best opening for England is to move to English Channel and North Sea (and always make that opening myself), but I am clearly in the minority on this.
• I predict France will move his fleet to Mid-Atlantic Ocean and the army at Paris to Burgundy supported by Marseilles. I think that’s the strongest opening and I see it often.  If he doesn’t do that, then there are too many configurations for me to hedge my prediction.
• I predict Russia will move St. Petersburg to Gulf of Bothnia, Sevastopol to Black Sea, Warsaw to Galicia, and Moscow to Ukraine. I consider this the best opening and I see it in most games.
• I predict Turkey will move Ankara to black sea, Constantinople to Bulgaria, and Smyrna to Constantinople. I consider this the best opening and see it in most games.
• I predict Austria will move Trieste to Albania, Vienna to Galicia, and Budapest to Serbia. If Italy does not attack, that opening is quite strong. Because Italy rarely attacks on the first move in high-level games, I think Austria will take a gamble.
• I predict Italy will move Naples to Ionian Sea, Rome to Apulia, and Venice will support-hold Trieste. This is a really common Italian opening in high-level games as it leaves open the possibility of a sneak-attack on Austria after feigning alliance or just an attack on Turkey, without being too vulnerable to any Austrian attack. I think if Italy really intends to ally Austria, Italy should move to Piedmont with Venice on the first move, but I rarely see that.^[12]Since I wrote this journal, I have been seeing the Piedmont opening much more often in high level games, maybe almost half the time. So maybe it is a more popular opening than I was thinking. In my experience, Italy rarely chooses France as his first target even though that can be a good strategy for Italy (and would be great for me as Germany).

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