Germany built as expected, but Italy disbanded the army in Apulia and Turkey built another fleet. I must admit that I didn’t expect that at all from Italy or Turkey.
Turkey’s build signifies a desire to dominate the Mediterranean and prevent anyone from slipping into EAS. This tells me that Turkey is still concerned with defense, especially considering that Turkey has no firm allies (maybe Russia, since Russia signaled a desire for Turkey to attack me last fall).
I’m not really sure what to think of Italy now. Was the army disband a concession? A sign of a desire for an alliance with me, knowing that if I fall to Turkey then Italy will fall next? Or is Italy merely choosing the only option that covers TUN/NAP/TYS all at once? In my opinion, that would be an extremely defensive plan.
Spring 1905 Plan
Turkey will surely attack me as much as possible at this point. My primary goal is to defend as best as possible and try to get Italy/Russia to work with me (after I attacked Italy and supported an attack on Russia).
Turkey: Aware, Responsive, Consistent, and Cutthroat
Turkey’s build slams the door on one potential movement I had considered: Ion-EAS. One good thing from the fleet build is that Turkey is limited in attacking my land-based centers. Turkey may have Russia to contend with, but with Germany and England bearing down, maybe not. Here are several options Turkey could utilize:
Attack Serbia
- Smy-EAS or Smy-Aeg
- Aeg s Gre
- Gre-Alb with Aeg-Gre
- Aeg-Ion with support
- Bla-Sev, Bla s Rum, or Bla-Rum
- Bul-/Rum-Ser with support
Attack Budapest
- Smy-EAS or Smy-Aeg
- Aeg s Gre
- Gre-Alb with Aeg-Gre
- Aeg-Ion with support
- Bla-Rum
- Rum-Bud
- Bul-Ser or Bul s Aeg-Gre
Turkey hasn’t seemed like a very risky player to me. I believe Turkey will either tap both Ser/Ion to keep Gre safe or Turkey will order Aeg s Gre. Considering Russia’s motion to Turkey and the northern threats Russia faces, Turkey may feel comfortable attacking Serbia with Rumania and simply ordering Bla-Rum.
If Turkey gets into Budapest, I’ll definitely lose one center unless I move to Vienna now. If Turkey gets into Serbia, I have a shot at retaking it if I get into Albania. Turkey’s best move for the fall is to get into Budapest and block me from getting into Albania while risking Greece. I don’t think Turkey will risk Greece but Turkey hasn’t really been in a scenario like this yet to see what this player’s tendencies are yet.
Russia: Engaged, Resilient, and Hedges (is Conservative)
Russia is likely to support Sevastopol again. He’s conservative. If I can get him to attack Rumania, that would be ideal but I doubt it would happen. The English armies in the north will surely affect the Russian player’s thinking.
Italy: Detail-oriented, Conservative/Predictable
Italy could tap Ion with Naples. Italy may bounce in Apulia and cover Tunis. Italy could move to Apulia to prepare to attack Venice. Hard to predict. I tend to think this player is being defensive but will take cautious forward movements.
Germany: Consistent and Sensible
Germany is likely to move to Prussia with support and keep attacking France. The German player could shift south to attack me instead but I doubt it.
France: Wants to be Aggressive but Stuck Defending, Starting to Check Out
I believe France will keep defending without really doing anything else.
England: Sly and 2-Way Alliance-Player
I think England will take StP while trying to push into MAO again.
Austria:
I need to move to Budapest and Albania since that gives me the best chance to defend. I’m leaving Venice and hoping Italy takes that as a peace offering (not likely to work). I’m ordering Ven-Adr-Alb, Adr c Ven-Alb, Ion s Ven-Alb, Tri-Bud, and Ser s Tri-Bud. I don’t feel like I have a lot of good options but if this works then this would give me the best chance to defend against Turkey and get Italy to be OK fighting Turkey with me. If it doesn’t work, the outcome is the same.
Spring 1905 Movements
Now Russia moves south! I suppose Russia is planning to try to sneak into one of my centers but that isn’t much of a strategy for long-term survival. Otherwise, not many surprises.
Turkey: Aware, Responsive, Consistent, Cutthroat, Cuts Supports for Attacks/Defense, Takes Conservative Defensive Movements
Turkey took the cautious approach in the spring. I could have slipped into Albania and supported Serbia. I don’t feel like I had enough of a sample size of to know how Turkey would proceed. Now, I know that Turkey makes what I consider to be typical/obvious choices in difficult scenarios like this.
Russia: Engaged, Resilient, and Hedges (is Conservative)
Russia again ordered Sev c Rum-Ser. Russia really wants Turkey attacking me and moving away from him. Russia’s movement to Galicia makes little sense to me from a defensive standpoint but makes sense to attack me with Turkey.
Italy: Detail-oriented, Conservative/Predictable
Italy simply made defensive movements and seems to be turtling.
Germany: Consistent and Sensible
Germany did as expected.
France: Wants to be Aggressive but Stuck Defending, Checking Out
France did as expected, not even entering Bur s Pic (Bur came through as “NMR”).
England: Sly and 2-Way Alliance-Player
England did as expected. One thing that England did is a support of Eng by Nth. This likely means that England copied orders from a past phase as a starting point for typing orders now. That means this player will be more prone to simply repeating orders.
Fall 1905 Plan
I retreated to Trieste. I’m going to stay focused on Turkey. If Russia slips into Vienna, so be it.
- Turkey will probably protect Rumania with Bla-Sev or Bla s Rum. Greece is still a possible target of mine and Serbia is as well. However, Budapest is an opportunity for Turkey. The most conservative/obvious movement is Rum s Ser and Aeg s Gre. A more aggressive movement that anticipates an attack from me is Ser-Bud with support from Rum. A defensive approach that would cut multiple supports for an attack is Rum-Bud, Ser-Alb, Gre-Alb, and EAS-Ion (supported by Aeg). I expect Aeg s Gre and Gre s EAS-Ion. The question here is whether Turkey orders Ser-Bud with support or Rum s Ser. So far, Turkey has made the obvious movements. I think there’s a 50/50 chance of that because Turkey is also aware of what is going on and could easily anticipate 3 vs. 2 at Serbia.
- Russia may defend Warsaw this fall with Galicia before giving up on it next year. Or, Russia will give up Warsaw now and move into Vienna. It doesn’t matter to me as I’m not going to try to stop it.
- Italy may bounce fleets in Tys but order Rom-Ven. I don’t really expect much else from Italy right now.
- Germany will take Warsaw and duplicate other orders.
- France will duplicate orders.
- England may order StP-Mos to help Germany (to cut possible support from Moscow for Warsaw). England may also move Nor-Swe. The only other possibility is a shift in fleets to the west but I doubt that. England has seemed patient.
- As Austria, I am going to cover Venice and re-take Serbia. I have bounced back and forth with supporting Budapest with the assumption that Turkey gives up Serbia and attacks Budapest. That may still happen. However, Turkey hasn’t yet shown that level of play. The attacks Turkey has made have all been fairly straightforward and Turkey has generally supported anything that is at risk of being attacked (with Bulgaria being the only different while I was supporting Bul-Rum). If Turkey does take Budapest, I should be able to retreat to either Vienna or Galicia and will have 3 armies bordering Budapest to take it back. I’m also going to order Ion-Gre because, why not? I’m ordering Adr-Ven, Ion-Gre, Alb-Ser, Tri/Bud s Alb-Ser.
Who knows, maybe I will be able to hold out long enough for Turkey to stop attacking me as EG descends upon us?
Fall 1905 Movements
Russia’s a chump. No, not because Russia went into Vienna. I knew that could happen and was willing to accept that consequence of going all-out to re-take Serbia. Russia’s a chump for trying to support the countries that are attacking him. Russia ordered Sev s Rum and War c StP-Ber. Basically, this is supporting Turkey (who has done nothing for Russia except attack him since 1901) and asked England to attack Germany (who just took StP instead of attacking Germany and is clearly allies with Germany). I will do my best to outlast Russia but otherwise don’t have any expectations of survival.
I have no different read on any of the players. Of note, England shifted fleets west (the smart move to finally break through against France). This game will end with either an English solo, EG, or EGT.
I will retreat to Apulia. Warsaw will probably retreat to Galicia since it seems Russia’s strategy is to try to survive in my supply centers. Serbia will retreat to Bulgaria.
I will disband my fleet in Apulia. England and Germany will probably build armies. They will have to agree between them who will take Moscow. Since Germany used Silesia to take Warsaw, that leads me to believe that Germany wants to move Pru-Lvn and then Lvn-Mos. Personally, I think it makes sense for England to take Moscow and then Sevastopol while Germany moves on to Austrian and Balkan Centers.
Update: Russia retreated to Livonia, meaning the Russian player is not giving up the north. I expect the fleet to be disbanded. This may also change the nature of the EG alliance. StP is at risk since England moved to Sweden. England may build a fleet now to move into North Sea. If England builds an army, it will be in Edi (showing Germany that a stab would be defended) to move west in the spring for a convoy and back to Edi if Germany moves to North Sea. Otherwise, Germany could build in Berlin, move to North Sea and Kiel, and take Edi unopposed (while covering Denmark). After reading what I just wrote, I expect an army build in Edi.
BOUNCED Gunboat Journal—Table of Contents
Introduction
1901 | 1902 | 1903 | 1904
1905 | 1906 | 1907
Elimination
Conclusion
End of Game Statements