Turkey built a fleet and Russia disbanded the northern fleet (which I had not considered). Considering Turkey’s fleet build, I view that as a good thing (as long as they remain at odds).
Spring 1904 Plan
My goals for this year are to net a gain of at least one supply center and not lose any home centers. Honestly, I don’t feel very hopeful about achieving both of those things, but it is achievable.
Turkey: Aware, Responsive, and Consistent
I’m not pleased with the fleet build, but I understand it. A fleet in the Black Sea and two in the Mediterranean are the minimum needed for Turkey long-term. Considering what Russia disbanded, I believe Turkey will order Ank-Bla with support from Constantinople. Otherwise, I expect Bul s Rum (Turkey usually supports armies that are at risk) and Smy-Aeg. Not sure what Rum will do.
Another possibility is that Turkey will order Con-Aeg with support from Smy and only Ank-Bla without support. If Turkey does that, I expect that Turkey will lose Rumania to Russia (at least, I hope that would happen instead of Russia trying to swipe a home center from me).
Russia: Engaged, Resilient, and Hedges (is Conservative)
Russia is hoping England doesn’t slip into StP and will almost certainly order Ukr-Gal, War s Ukr-Gal, Mos-Ukr, and Sev-Bla. Hopefully for me, Russia tries to put 3 against Rumania and leaves me alone. Russia surely sees that an army in Galicia may be able to slip into one of my home centers as well.
Italy: Detail-oriented
Italy seemingly anticipated what Turkey would do by moving to Aegean Sea in Spring 1902. If the player is anticipating that I am taking Venice and can’t be stopped, they may simply move to stop me from getting any other centers. Ionian Sea may be a target as well since it is an important naval territory. Finally, Greece may be a target, but I don’t think that is very likely right now – I believe Italy’s movements have been more defensive in nature than aggressive due to the standard opening and orders to “hold” in Venice. Italy will probably consider these options:
- Apu s Ven (doomed to failure)
- Apu-Nap
- Tys-Tun/Nap
- Aeg-Gre
- Aeg-Ion; Tys s Aeg-Ion
I think the most defensive movement would be Aeg-Ion with support and Apu-Nap. This would limit the damage to only losing Ven and being in Ionian Sea, able to re-take Tunis. However, this would completely eliminate the possibility of re-taking Venice in the fall. That would be a tough pill to swallow so I think Italy leaves Apulia in place to support Venice while trying to re-take Ionian Sea.
Another possibility is that Italy bounces Apu/Tys in Naples and orders Aeg-Ion. This would allow Italy to re-take Tunis if I move Ion-Tun and it keeps me out of both Naples and Apulia. However, it would not allow Italy to re-take Tunis if I convoy there from Greece. Considering Italy’s standard/conservative movements, I expect Aeg-Ion with support and Apu-Nap or Apu s Ven.
Germany: Consistent and Sensible
Now, Germany has the chance to cash in on England’s past support. Ruh-Bel with support from Hol, Mun-Bur, Den s Nth, and Sil-War. I expect Germany to basically duplicate past orders without any real reason to do something different.
France: ???
France seems to be in defense-mode now. The lack of any significant attempt to do anything other than support his own position tells me this player will keep doing that. Bre s MAO, (or Bre-Eng with support from MAO like last spring), Pic s Bel, Bur s Bel, Bel s Bur, Gas s Bur. Until they do something different, that’s what I expect.
England: Sly and Alliance-Player
England’s movement to Finland may not have been as anti-Russian as I initially thought. Perhaps it is more of a movement to keep Russia from thinking of trying for Scandinavia again? I could see Iri-MAO, Eng-Pic, Nth s Ruh-Bel, Swe s Nth, and Fin h. Perhaps England moves into StP, perhaps not. I don’t really expect it right now – I think England is playing the long-game here and not trying to show his hand for future plans. Besides that, leaving StP alone allows Russia to continue his southern campaign which would bolster England’s solo chances or chances for an EG draw (if England truly is an “alliance” player). Keeping the south embroiled in conflict would allow EG to grow faster than anyone else (especially since France is a tough nut to crack).
Another set of movements England may choose is to attack MAO with Eng (supported by Iri) and move Nth to Eng. I would do this if I were England. However, I think England values the budding alliance with Germany more and will help Germany take Belgium first.
Austria:
I can easily take and keep Venice this year but I want to make sure I don’t leave my backdoor wide open to do so. I have a few (non-exclusive) options here:
- Take Venice now and allow Italy to dislodge my fleet in Ionian Sea if Italy wants to do that.
- Move an army to Vie/Bud/Ser to cover my backside (could be 1 or more of my 3 armies).
- Attempt to convoy Greece to Tun/Nap/Apu (won’t do this without covering my backside).
- Keep everything in place in order to take Venice in the fall (not allowing an attempt to re-take Venice).
I’m not inclined to take Venice in the fall since Russia will surely be in Galicia and I will need one of those armies to cover Vie/Bud. I could take Venice with an army or my fleet. Tyrolia makes sense because I could use Trieste to cover either Vienna or Budapest. Hence, I definitely won’t take Venice with Trieste. If my fleet in Ionian Sea gets dislodged, Adr-Ven makes sense because I could support my fleet in Venice from Tyrolia in the fall without that support being cut by an Italian fleet in Ionian Sea.
I am strongly considering moving Greece to Serbia to provide options to cover Budapest in the fall. However, the fleet build from Turkey and risk that Turkey dislodges Aeg (along with the risk of Aeg-Gre, which would be a counter to a possible convoy from me) is making me want to keep Greece in place. I think that Italy is going to dislodge Ionian because the risk of a convoy to Tunis or Apulia would cause a scenario where I could take two Italian centers, so am I willing to take that risk and move Greece to Serbia? It would give me better options in the fall for Bud/Vie.
At first, I was going to do the most certain thing and move Adr-Ven and keep Greece in place. I decided to go back and look at Italy’s past movements one more time to see if there is anything I have missed. I noticed that Italy did not enter an order for Apulia in Spring 1903 (it came through as “NMR”) when Italy made an overture of peace with me. Italy had previously convoyed Tun-Apu when making an attempt at Trieste in Fall 1902. I don’t think I spent enough time analyzing that at the time. When trying to take Trieste, why convoy to Apulia?
The fleet in Naples supported the fleet in Ionian. I didn’t think anything of it, (many players will enter a support order if they can because they don’t like issuing hold orders) but I suppose it may have been to prevent my fleets from taking Ionian Sea. However, if I was going to attack Italy in Ionian, one would expect me to move an army to Trieste to be ready to attack Italy. If Ven-Tri was going to work, there was no need to support Ion and the convoy to Apulia was also useless. In fact, Ion-Adr and Nap-Ion would have made more sense to fully attack me. Hence, Italy moved to Apulia (seemingly a defensive move in case I was attacking) while attacking me and supporting himself in Ionian Sea.
This leads me to feel more confident that Italy is a conservative player who is focused on defensively countering a threat instead of attacking that threat. I’m going to act on that belief with Tyr-Ven supported by Adr and Tri, along with Gre-Ser and Ion s Apu-Nap. If Italy dislodges Ionian Sea, I can retreat Naples if available or Tunis (or Greece, depending on what Turkey is doing). If Italy moves to Greece and tries to bounce Naples, I will have ensured that Venice is mine and would have a good chance at re-taking Greece.
Spring 1904 Movements
Wow! I’m very surprised that Russia didn’t move into Galicia! That’s both good and bad for me: good because Vienna is not at risk but bad because Turkey is free to attack me if he wants to. Let’s review:
Turkey: Aware, Responsive, and Consistent
Turkey moved as expected (Rumania was ordered to “hold”). This is a great position for Turkey – no real threats and an alliance of sorts with their strongest neighbor (perhaps Turkey views me as a long-term ally, perhaps not). I guess I’m not sure if I view Turkey as a long-term ally either. I feel more open to the idea of it, but I still have my doubts that it could work.
Russia: Engaged, Resilient, and Hedges (is Conservative)
Russia has persistently tried to get England to be friendly, even choosing not to go to Galicia in order to communicate this (Warsaw’s order was a convoy of Fin-Swi). It didn’t happen so it’s only a matter of time until England takes StP. Russia seems destined for a slow death.
Italy: Detail-oriented, Conservative/Predictable
Italy did as I predicted. If I could have foreseen Russia’s lack of movement to Galicia, I would have more strongly considered a convoy to Tunis and then took Venice in the fall. Oh well, that may have enticed Turkey to attack even more than Turkey may already be thinking of it.
Germany: Consistent and Sensible
The German player switched the attack to be from Holland. I find this odd for several reasons. First, England supported it even though it hadn’t been attempted. Second, it leaves Holland exposed to an English stab. Is Germany trying to show England that he trusts England fully? Or, is Germany merely observing England’s friendship and choosing to run with it? With armies in Belgium, Ruhr, and Munich, Germany is on the cusp of a French invasion.
France: Wants to be Aggressive but Stuck Defending, Starting to Check Out
France did not enter orders for MAO or Belgium. I think France is starting to check out. Sometimes, an “NMR” means a player doesn’t want to show anything. Sometimes, it means they don’t want to spend the time to even enter “XXX h” because they know their time is limited. Considering the lack of imaginative movements from France, I think it’s the latter.
England: Sly and 2-Way Alliance-Player
England double-supported Hol-Bel. I find this odd because there is no reason England had to believe Germany would try this. Was England merely trying to signal this idea to Germany for the fall (since it would help with an invasion of France)? Was it dumb luck? I highly doubt any cheating, so I won’t consider that scenario.
I expect Venice to retreat to Rome and I will retreat to Greece. I don’t want to give Turkey any reason to believe that stabbing me would be easy. Turkey could move a fleet to Armenia if he wants to grow faster. While moving to Tunis seems very appealing, I don’t want to give Turkey an open door because that would spell the end for me.
Fall 1904 Plan
Italy retreated to Rome, as expected.
I’ll need to use my army in Trieste to support Venice. I believe that Turkey will not use Bulgaria to attack Budapest, although it is possible. Thus, I need to decide the best way to utilize my other forces. First, let’s consider what the other players will do.
- Turkey has to decide (or possibly already decided) what to do: keep attacking only Russia or attack me too. It’s certainly possible Turkey wants to maintain peace with me. I believe that Turkey sees the benefit in that so I expect Turkey to order Bul s Rum, Rum s Bla-Sev, Bla-Sev, AEG-EAS, and Con-AEG. There’s a chance Turkey shifts fleets to the east with BLA-Arm and Con-Bla or even Bul-Con (to send it to Arm next year). A set of movements I would prefer to see is a convoy of Bul-Smy with Con-Bul/ec (to send the army in Bulgaria to Armenia next year). I just have a hard time believing Turkey will actually do that. In fact, I think Turkey would decide to attack Rum-Bud with Bul-Rum supported by Bla before shifting an army over to Armenia. I hope that doesn’t happen but I also don’t expect it. Turkey hasn’t made any drastic movements like that so far and I believe doesn’t feel strong enough to do that.
- Russia will almost certainly cover StP again with Moscow and must leave Warsaw in place. With the chance of a supported attack on Sevastapol, I expect Ukr s Sev and Sev h.
- Italy can try to take Venice in futility. I expect that to happen. There’s a slight chance of a convoy to Albania. There’s a stronger chance of Tys s Ion so that I don’t displace Ionian Sea again. Ultimately, I expect Rom s Apu-Ven, Apu-Ven, Ion-Adr, and Tys-Ion.
- Germany will certainly order Ruh s Bel, Bel s Mun-Bur, Mun-Bur, Den s Nth, and Sil-War. The German player may choose to do something else with Sil (Sil-Gal would certainly affect the south). Ultimately, I don’t expect anything different and I think Germany builds an army in Berlin next year to attack Warsaw with.
- France seems resigned to a slow death. Bre-Eng, Pic-Bel, Bur s Pic-Bel, and Gas s Bur is my prediction.
- England may take a shot at MAO now. I predict Eng-MAO, IRI s Eng-MAO, Nth-Eng, Fin-StP, and Swe h.
- As Austria, I will order Tri s Ven. I need to consider what to do with everything else. I can order Ser s Gre or Ser-Bud to defend against a possible Turkish attack. If I have conviction on what I believe Turkey will do, I can order Ser-Gre, Gre-Ion, and Adr s Gre-Ion. I could also order Adr-Apu with support from Ven to possibly push Apulia into Naples. I feel like trusting Turkey still and trying to get into Ionian Sea now: Tri s Ven, Adr s Gre-Ion, Gre-Ion, Ser-Gre, and Ven c Bul-Sev (to send a message to Turkey that Russia is all theirs if they go after it).
If my prediction is correct and Turkey doesn’t attack, I can build an army in Budapest to cover my backdoor and/or move into Galicia to further influence Turkey. With the success EG is having, I don’t want Turkey to conveniently stab me for a 3-way draw. I also don’t see an easy path to attack Turkey so I want to make the possibility of AT making it to the endgame as a solid alliance.
Fall 1904 Movements
Bummer for me—Turkey attacked. Even if I had used Serbia to support Greece, the attack would have gone through. Cutting support from Bulgaria would have kept Greece if I was keeping the fleet in place. I didn’t really consider that because I was trying to convey a desire for alliance with Turkey. This means I am unlikely to make it to the draw in this game.
I expect Italy to retreat to Tunis and take a defensive posture.
Let’s review each power:
Turkey: Aware, Responsive, Consistent, and Cutthroat
Turkey repaid my help with an attack before I could get another build. Since Turkey had decided to attack me, this was wise for Turkey (it would have been much harder to attack after I get a build). I thought Turkey would firm up his position against Russia more but that didn’t happen. In hindsight, if I had held my position in Ionian in the spring then Turkey wouldn’t have been in position to attack in the fall. However, I believed I needed to take Venice then to be able to fend off Russia (which didn’t happen). Russia not being in Galicia also removed any real threat on Rumania, further enabling an attack against me. Perhaps if I had spent more time considering Turkey’s movements and what they showed, I would have talked myself into taking defensive actions.
Russia: Engaged, Resilient, and Hedges (is Conservative)
Russia is simply defending now. Since Russia is paying attention, I may be able to get Russia to support me if I attack Rumania. With the coming onslaught of German and English armies, I don’t think Russia will last very long now and I don’t expect Russia to help me against Turkey.
Italy: Detail-oriented, Conservative/Predictable
Italy did as I predicted. If I am careful and depending on Turkey’s build, I may try to send a signal to Italy of peace. If Italy retreats to EAS, I would definitely do this. However, it’s not likely to be able to do that in gunboat. Once the die is cast, most don’t turn back. Italy sent a signal of peace to me after attacking me and it didn’t dissuade me from striking back. If I do the same, it’s not likely to work.
Germany: Consistent and Sensible
Germany did as expected. Not much else to say really.
France: Wants to be Aggressive but Stuck Defending, Starting to Check Out
France did not enter orders for MAO again. He didn’t try to re-take Belgium and was content to simply support Burgundy.
England: Sly and 2-Way Alliance-Player
England attacked MAO, but with IRI. Personally, I wouldn’t do that because France could retreat to NAO. Why would England not be concerned with that? I suppose England could retreat back to re-take Lvp if that happened. I find that a little surprising. Otherwise, England got into place to take StP. England seems to be changing to be a bit more aggressive.
Update: Italy retreated to Naples. I expect a new German army in Berlin and a new Turkish army in Constantinople. I expect Italy to disband that fleet in Naples (to keep me guessing on Tun/Nap).
BOUNCED Gunboat Journal—Table of Contents
Introduction
1901 | 1902 | 1903 | 1904
1905 | 1906 | 1907
Elimination
Conclusion
End of Game Statements