BOUNCED Gunboat Journal: 190316 min read

England built a fleet in Liverpool, as expected.

Spring 1903 Plan

My goal this year is to prevent a successful Italian attack while trying to show positive intentions toward Turkey. I don’t think I have a very high chance of success in this game at this point, but it ultimately depends on the disposition of the Turkish player.

Turkey: Aware and Responsive

Turkey seems to be paying attention, so I believe that Turkey would be feeling confident/safe right now (knowing that I would not attack him while also facing Italy). If Turkey was genuine about wanting to help me attack Italy, Turkey may simply continue along as last fall. In that case, I think he orders EME-Ion and duplicates everything else. If he’s opportunistic, he orders EME-Aeg instead. In my mind, that would make more sense because then he could attack me at his leisure once he has a foothold against Russia.

Russia: Engaged and Resilient

Russia must keep supporting Rumania. The question is, does Russia order War-Gal again? With the attack from Germany, I doubt it. I think Warsaw holds and that the northern Russian forces bounce in Finland to try to keep England out of it.

One thought on Russia, I could consider trying to work with Russia. The problem is that I would have to attack Turkey to do that. If Russia doesn’t reciprocate, I have only alienated a neighbor who did show signs of wanting to work together. That’s not a route I’m going to go down.

Italy: Detail-oriented and Intentional

Italy has several options to attack me. The Italian player may move to Adriatic Sea and send Ven-Tyr and Apu-Ven. Italy may also support Ionian from Naples after seeing Turkey’s support for me but still move to attack. I expect a full attack with Nap-Ion.

Germany: Consistent

Germany has no reason to deviate from attacking France and Russia. I expect an attack on Burgundy this time to mix things up. Otherwise, France would catch on and realize that an attack from Burgundy to Ruhr, supported by Belgium would work. Being consistent in purpose does not always mean consistent in orders (although, perhaps we’ll see that this is the case – Germany has ordered Den-Swe for three straight movement phases now). The real question here is what Germany does with the fleet in Denmark. Does Germany issue a “hold” order for Denmark or something more friendly to England? I won’t make a prediction although I think it would be sensible to make some gesture of friendship toward England.

France: Aggressive

France may take a little more risk here in the spring as I had predicted they would in the fall. After the failed attack on the Channel and the new fleet in Liverpool, I expect a move of MAO-NAO/IRI and Bre-MAO, taking a risk with Bre.

England: Sly

If I were England, I would order Lvp-NAO and still support Eng with Nth. England hasn’t seemed like a player who picks fights with everyone so I don’t see England attacking Russia. I think England will attack Denmark in the fall but not in the spring (why give Russia an opening in the fall)? England may do something to cause misdirection like issue a support order from Swe for Den and then attack in the fall.

Austria:

I will definitely order Alb-Adr. This prevents Italy from getting there or it lets me get there – both are good because I don’t want Italy to be able to get two armies and a fleet around Trieste. I will use Greece to send a message to Turkey. I will order Gre c Bul-Rum to communicate that I will still support this. My hope is that Turkey will see that they will have a clear path to take Russian supply centers and won’t decide to attack me at the same time.

The question is what to do with my armies. Is it best to get one into Trieste now? How about Vienna (which will likely have a green army next door in Tyrolia in the fall)? Since I believe I’ll be bouncing Italy out of Adriatic Sea and that Italy will order Ven-Tyr and Apu-Ven, I want to order Gal-Vie and bounce Bud-Tri along with Ser-Tri. This will give me the option in the fall of using Budapest or Serbia to support Bulgaria into Rumania in the fall and use Vienna to support Albania into Trieste if I want (or use one of the armies to take a risk and support Vienna into Trieste while taking a shot at getting into Ionian Sea with my two fleets).

This may not seem like conventional wisdom. With Italy being detail-oriented (from what I see so far) and intentional, I expect that Italy will assume I’ll be making conventional movements and will move to counteract those conventional movements. I want to put myself in a situation to lead Italy to believe I will certainly make a particular movement (Alb-Tri in the fall) and then do something different (e.g., Bud s Vie-Tri in the fall). If I chose to do that, it would be another risk and it may fail. Of course, we’ll see how the spring movements go first. If Turkey makes aggressive movements against me, this may be a short (in game years) journal!

Update: After thinking through it more, (trying to learn from my mistakes in reading the players/board and contemplate the movements of others more), I decided to change my movements. I spent time thinking through the possible ways Italy could attack and could see Italy convoying to Albania. It may not happen and wouldn’t be consistent with Italy’s convoy to Apulia, but I decided to defend against it anyhow. If Italy were to convoy there, Greece is also threatened. I’d rather have only one center under threat from Italy. I decided to bounce Gre-Alb and Ser-Alb while keeping Alb-Adr and Gal-Vie. This may be a mistake, but I decided to order Bud s Bul-Rum to show my intentions to Turkey for an alliance. I haven’t attacked Turkey at all and Turkey offered support to Ionian even after I tried to go to Aegean. Still, I can’t shake the feeling that Turkey will feel emboldened to move to Aegean and to attack Greece in the fall or next year.

Spring 1903 Movements

Now Italy is asking me for peace … what?!?^[1]Italy’s order from Venice was “Ven c Bud-Swi” which is a request for peace. There’s a lot to break down here.

First, Russia was dislodged from Rumania and will retreat to Ukraine while England’s fleet in the English Channel was dislodged and will likely retreat to London. Now, let’s see if we can figure out where the heads of these players are at:

Turkey: Aware, Responsive, and Consistent

Turkey supported me to Ion again instead of moving to Aegean! Additionally, this player moved as I had previously supported them to do. This is a very positive development for me! If this budding alliance could develop and last long enough to allow me to defeat Italy, I would be very surprised.

Russia: Engaged, Resilient, and Hedges

My expectation that Russia would sit in Warsaw was wrong. Russia wasn’t trying to bounce out of Galicia because Rumania supported the movement from Warsaw. Russia did move to Moscow, presumably to re-take Warsaw if Germany were to move there (which I viewed as a certainty). The fleet move to StP seems to me a concession to England: you keep Scandinavia and I’ll sit here and not bother you.

One thing I just noticed, Russia has not used the fleet in Sevastopol to cut support of the Turkish fleet in Black Sea. Yes, Turkey originally attacked with the fleet but doing this in the spring would allow Russia to threaten Turkish home centers in the fall. Russia has only opted to support Rumania with Sevastopol.

Italy: Detail-oriented

I am very surprised by Italy’s convoy order of Bud-Swi. After attacking Trieste, to immediately ask for peace makes no sense to me. I removed the “Intentional” from my description of the player. The Italian player may be intentional at times, but flipping to do the opposite the next movement phase (without anything else seriously changing the situation) is not consistent with an intentional player. Italy also moved to Aegean, which was the same order from Spring 1902.

Germany: Consistent and Sensible

The German player switched up movements a little bit as I predicted (consistent with intent, not orders) and did what I consider the sensible thing: supported the English fleet in North Sea with the fleet in Denmark. Germany now seems to firmly have a friend in England since France antagonized England after a helpful start.

France: ???

France is locked into war with England and Germany now. This is probably a good thing for me because this probably won’t be a war that is quickly resolved. Tactically, France opted to attack the Channel again, which I view as an odd choice. England could have easily stopped the attack and the Channel can’t be held. I suppose it does slow down the advance of English fleets south. I’m removing any description for this player. I have not generally understood their strategy or approach and the French movements no longer seem simply “aggressive”. Perhaps the player is aggressive but cannot do as they normally would wish since they face war on both land and sea. Or, perhaps there is some other reason for their movements.

England: Sly and Alliance-Player

I think it was very telling that England went all-out to support Germany into Belgium, even risking (and losing) the Channel to do so. Combined with the support of France into Belgium in Fall 1901, I believe this indicates that this player is an alliance player (aka, carebear). I could be wrong – the English player may merely value an ally until it’s time to try for a solo. However, the lengths this player has gone to to help their preferred ally indicates this to me.

Fall 1903 Plan

England retreated Eng-Lon. Time to plan for the fall!

• Turkey is likely to cover home supply centers. I expect Bla-Con, Bul s Rum, and Eme-Smy. Another possibility is risking Con and Bla s Rum. It depends on how Turkey believes Russia will behave but I think Turkey will see that Russia needs to re-take Warsaw. If I get to the point of accurately predicting how others will predict, I think I’ll be in BrotherBored territory!
• Russia will certainly try to re-take Warsaw and make at least some attempt toward re-taking Rumania. I think the most sensible, conservative thing is to order Sevastopol and Moscow to support attacks on each. If Russia is a bit more offensive-minded, Galicia and Ukraine could support the attacks. Russia hasn’t been the most aggressive player, so I expect Galicia and Ukraine to move and Moscow and Sevastopol to support.
• Italy can attack me, attack Turkey, and/or defend. Seeing the lack of consistency makes this difficult to predict. Considering that Venice is not threatened, Ven-Tyr and Apu-Ven is an option (for offensive or defensive movements). It’s possible Italy will still try to make peace with me but I doubt it with my fleet in the Adriatic Sea. If Italy is actually focused on attacking Turkey, an attempted convoy may be attempted but I doubt that. A defensive retreat or support of Ion is an option or an attack on Greece may happen. I don’t feel like I can confidently predict what Italy will do so I will cover Greece.
• Germany will probably issue a support order for Nth again and sit in Warsaw (maybe using that army to send a message via a convoy order). I believe Germany will reciprocate what England offered: Ruh-Bel with support from Hol and Mun-Bur.
• France seems stuck supporting Belgium and Burgundy. If France returns to aggressive ways, Bel s Bur-Ruh with Gas-Bur and Pic s Bel would make sense. Considering the past year, I doubt France does that. Eng-Iri would be an offensive-minded move but would leave Brest at risk next year. Will France really issue only hold orders? Perhaps. A retreat to Wales would be one way to take the fight to England but I’m not sure I see this French player doing that either. I don’t feel I can confidently predict what France will do here.
• England will probably re-take the Channel and risk a retreat to Wales (knowing that the fleet in Irish Sea can cover Liverpool and London is easily covered as well).
• As Austria, I will try to move into Ion with Greece and cover Greece with Serbia. I’m going to trust Turkey (especially since Italy could attack Turkish centers). I will also move with the belief that Russia re-takes Warsaw with Galicia. Gre-Ion, Adr s Gre-Ion, Ser-Gre, Vie-Tyr, and Bud-Tri. This gives me the best opportunity to attack Italy and shows trust toward Turkey while taking only a moderate risk in moving out of Vienna and Budapest.

Fall 1903 Movements

All my orders went through! That’s … not actually what I wanted, now that I think about it. I was betting that Vienna (or Budapest) was going to bounce back (assuming Italy would order Venice to Tyrolia or Trieste). Now, Vienna, Budapest, and Serbia are all empty, which will probably be tempting to Turkey next year. Hopefully, Turkey is actually wanting to be allies with me. Realistically, this is Diplomacy and Turkey is probably thinking of taking Sevastopol next year and stabbing me before I start taking Italian centers and can build armies to defend my backside.

For now, the retreat phase will allow France, Germany, and Italy to all enter retreat orders. I expect Eng-Bre, War-Lvn, and Ion-Tys (or possibly Tun, but probably not). Russia will lose one unit and Turkey will gain one. I expect Russia to disband Ukraine and Turkey to build an army that would go to Armenia. If Turkey builds a fleet, I view that as a plan to attack Greece next fall with the fleet in Constantinople (since the new fleet can go into Black Sea).

Turkey: Aware, Responsive, and Consistent

Turkey ordered exactly as I predicted (which isn’t that surprising – these were obvious defensive movements). I will have to be wary of Turkey deciding to take advantage of my movement west and will likely have the army in Greece cover Serbia in the spring while doing something with my other armies to be able to re-take or cover Budapest next fall.

Russia: Engaged, Resilient, and Hedges (is Conservative)

I was hoping Russia would use Galicia to re-take Warsaw and that’s what happened! This gives me a little breathing room and I hope Germany keeps harassing Russia. Russia also moved as I expected as this player has not been very aggressive. No risk was taken in re-taking a supply center and I believe the army was left in Moscow to be able to help St. Petersburg.

Italy: Detail-oriented

I misread Italy – I figured the Italian player is detail-oriented enough to see that I don’t trust his intentions (bouncing in Albania and moving to Adriatic Sea). Hence, I expected an attack on me and not on Turkey. Italy issued a “hold” order with Venice and tried to convoy to Constantinople (which, in my view, was a very low-probability attack). If my attack goes well and I prevent Turkey from taking advantage and attacking me, I’ll be glad I did this. If Turkey ends up taking advantage and ultimately eliminates me, I’ll regret this.

Germany: Consistent and Sensible

Germany did exactly what I predicted – responded to England’s past suggestion, supported Nth, and sent a message with Warsaw. The order was a support for Vie-Gal, which is nice to know that Germany prefers me to Russia. In my experience, Germany and Austria don’t really work together as allies but more as maintaining a mutual peace until one is ready to attack the other. Thus, I don’t make much of this except that we have a mutual enemy in Russia.

France: ???

France is the first power to choose/fail to enter an order: the order for the fleet in the English Channel came through as “NMR”. Otherwise, France kept on issuing “support” orders. Even Belgium and Burgundy are simply supporting each other. France doesn’t seem to want to take any risks. Perhaps France is holding out, hoping that if it is hard enough to attack that England and Germany will turn on each other? If that is the case, I don’t see that happening. After aggressive opening movements, I’m not sure what to make of this player.

England: Sly and Alliance-Player

England utilized IRI to cut support instead of supporting the attack. That’s important to remember because some players simply don’t think that way. At this point, I think they are the best player on the board. Another move of note is Nor-Fin. This is not friendly to Russia and may be indicating to Germany that Germany should retreat to Livonia (surely everyone on the board knew Germany would be dislodged from Warsaw by Russia). If so, does England want to be supported into StP or is England willing to support Germany there? With the offer to support Germany into Belgium, it would be reasonable to expect support into StP from Germany.

At the end of 1903, England and Germany seems to have formed a solid alliance. If this alliance lasts, it could result in EGT if I’m not careful.

Update: Germany retreated to Silesia so I expect Russia to disband Moscow instead.

BOUNCED Gunboat Journal—Table of Contents
Introduction
1901 | 1902 | 1903 | 1904
1905 | 1906 | 1907
Elimination
Conclusion
End of Game Statements